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Spot rubber continues to slide
http://bit.ly/2J5ODC9 #Kottayam, #NationalMultiCommodityExchange, #RSS4, #Rubber, #TOCOM
Market Updates and Estimates for 26/07/16
160 level has broken convincingly. I thought it would hold as it was the third time testing it. However, with the renewed strength in the dollar, i have no problem switching camps. Range for today is 154-160. High chance we have some form of range expansion today as the market has been quiet as of late. Crude is coming off, gold a little, and yen has started to strengthened. Support for me remains at 145/146 zone and should we see the dollar strengthened significantly, i think new lows are on the cards. I would be surprised if we see a sharp upside reversal today.
Market Updates and Estimates for 25/07/16
Friday’s SHFE night session closed weak. Market was already in profit taking mode on Friday afternoon. The larger range remains 122-132. Market probably take a step back today after it tested 130 resistance again in the SICIM TSR. Range for today is 158-162. Long term support for me is 145/146 and let’s see if we will revisit the lower end of this larger trading bracket
US DOLLAR: Gaining strength and i think this would put an offer tone in commodities.
Market Updates and Estimate for 10/06/16
Range for today is 145-150. My guess is just as good as yours. With SHFE close, the market can do whatever it wants. Like i said, the market action is signalling more downside to come. As support in the 154-155 region broke, all hell broke loose. The market hastily traded 149. Same for today, i am not expecting any potential upside despite the strong equities market and crude. We might find some bottom picking opportunity at the end of the day.
Tocom vs SHFE: has been on the high side, partly due to the strength of the yen. During this China holiday period, it has revert to the lower end of the month range, do consider this when finding value in the Tocom contracts
Market Updates and Estimates for 08/06/16
Range for today is 156-160. Market had a strangely weak day but it’s ok, we saw some recovery in the afternoon session. Support still lies in the 155-156 region. i still expect market to test 160 and beyond. Equities were strong overnight and crude as well, maybe we will take some lead from there. Every dip today would be a buying opportunity. I maintain my slightly bullish view as long as the dollar remains weak or we have a significant change in fundamentals.
Open interest: Tocom open interest of commercials seems to be on the rise, currently at -5579. I think anything above 5000 would be slightly overcrowding. Good for me as i maintain my bullish view.
Morning Updates and Range Estimates for 02/06/16
Today’s range is 154-158. 160 seems like critical resistance yesterday but i am going to go for broke and expect another weak day, hence lower resistance level at 158. I like what i saw yesterday afternoon, and since it was only the first day of selling after some strength for the past week, i expect this selling to have some continuation today. USD has turned down and probably would put a little bid tone in USD/JPY, just a little. i expect the market to test the lows this week or next. SHFE looks really weak, with the market only putting up a small reaction to the upside before the downtrend continues. Industrial metals continue to be under pressure.
Opec: Any deal that will upset production seems unlikely. Saudi Arabia has 72% of revenue coming from oil and 98 billion dollar budget deficit last year. So far every measure it has taken seems to be being able to gain more market share. I doubt this will change in the intermediate term. Crude prices are off the hourly lows despite the lack of a new deal.
China Manufacturing PMI: roughly inline with expectation. I think we will see a bottom soon enough after almost 6 years of slowing down, but remember, there is no obvious correlation between the performance of the china economy and it’s stock market.
ECB: set to keep interest rates firmly on hold, and likely to raise growth and inflation forecast. With the impending Brexit, i can’t see anything but volatility in the Euro for the weeks to come.
US Equities: still loitering at the highs with its new found strength since the bottom early this year. I think it shouldn’t be here and should be much lower in the months to come, but hey, don’t fight the trend! Bull markets are born amidst a wall of worry.
Morning Updates and Estimates for 31/05/16
Today’s range is 163-166. The market remains sticky on the upside, seems rejuvenated. The dip lower at the open and then surge higher was a surprise despite the very strong Dollar. I still think we are set to test the low in the months to come after this correction to the upside.
US dollar: was strong after Yellen’s speech on Saturday morning. USD/JPY especially, made another 130 pips surge after the open Monday morning. the net short positions on USD/JPY has reduced significantly. Strategy remains as buy the hype, sell the bluff.
Equities: gaining some momentum and remains to see if commodities will follow suit. I still think it should be lower given how countries has struggled to revive the economy with QE, but guess what, the stock market is built on the back of a wall of worry.