Fights to Make: UFC Salt Lake City
Yair Rodriguez (beat Alex Caceres) vs. Cub Swanson (beat Tatsuya Kawajiri): I’m still not sure how to feel about Rodriguez’s win over Caceres in the Salt Lake City main event - he obviously continued to show a ridiculous amount of dynamism, but there’s the concern that eventually he’s going to hit a wall against someone with more solid fundamentals that can capitalize on the weaknesses of Rodriguez’s high-risk, high-reward style. So he probably doesn’t deserve to be pushed towards a title shot just yet, particularly since Rodriguez continuing to rack up wins and becoming a star seems pretty crucial towards UFC’s efforts of breaking into Mexico. So, ideally, Rodriguez would face another competitor like Caceres, a solid veteran who can test Rodriguez just enough while still making things an exciting fight, except, well, looking around the featherweight landscape, I’m not sure that person exists. There are fighters who could give him a test, but mostly wrestler types who could hold Rodriguez down, which helps nobody, so you can go in one of two directions - either just giving Rodriguez a step down in competition so he can continue to get wins and just get rounds in, or moving him up and possibly in over his head against someone who can give him an exciting fight. And I’m going to go the latter route and put Rodriguez against Cub Swanson, who won in the other great fight of the night in a decision over Tatsuya Kawajiri. Swanson’s diminished a bit and is closer to the #5-15 morass at featherweight rather than the top contenders, which kind of puts him at the perfect level - obviously more experienced, and probably better than Rodriguez, but someone who can also get aggressive and wild enough to just turn things into an excellent fight that Rodriguez might be able to win. And if this turns into Rodriguez’s first UFC loss, hell, at least he’ll probably go down swinging, and then UFC can easily build him back up again with his exciting style.
Dennis Bermudez (beat Rony Jason) vs. Frankie Edgar: I called for this after Edgar’s loss to Jose Aldo at UFC 200, and Bermudez obviously reads my stuff, as he challenged Edgar after his win here. It’s pretty much the only fight that makes sense for Edgar at UFC 205 at Madison Square Garden, since I wouldn’t risk surging contender Max Holloway by putting him against Frankie - it’s a good bounce-back win for Edgar and a hell of an opportunity for Bermudez, plus you have the New Jersey versus Long Island angle.
Thales Leites (beat Chris Camozzi) vs. Elias Theodorou: Leites returned to his own ways, abandoning his improved striking game and, when faced with a primarily striking-based opponent, just took things to the ground and worked over Chris Camozzi before tapping him out late. Leites stopped the bleeding of a two-fight losing streak, but seems cemented as more gatekeeper than contender now, so let’s see how Canada’s Elias Theodorou does, since he has enough size and a well-rounded game to give it a shot and maybe make a name with a win over a decently-well known veteran.
Santiago Ponzinibbio (beat Zak Cummings) vs. Alan Jouban: Ponzinibbio re-affirmed himself as one of the better mid-level action fighters by busting up Zak Cummings, so let’s put him against Jouban, who’s a perennial fight of the night contender every time he fights. Winner gets “King of the Mid-Tier Action Welterweights” status. Tatsuya Kawajiri (lost to Cub Swanson) vs. Brian Ortega/Hacran Dias (UFC Fight Night 96) loser: Kawajiri is on, surprisingly, the first two-fight losing streak of his long career, so it may just be worth it to give him an easy win against someone lower on the card. I’d rather keep the vet in a relevant fight though, so let’s put him against the loser from the Portland card in early October - it’ll either be a fun wrestler versus submission artist battle against rising prospect Ortega, or a bit of a grind-fest against Brazil’s Dias. Alex Caceres (lost to Yair Rodriguez) vs. Charles Rosa: I thought Caceres had a shot at knocking off Rodriguez after a surprisingly effective return to 145, but Caceres sort of let Rodriguez fight his fight and showed a lot of the frustrating inconsistencies that have plagued most of his career. He can still put on fun fights, though, so let’s put him against Boston’s Rosa, who’s had a pretty fun fight almost every time out in UFC, including a 2015 loss to Rodriguez himself.
Chris Camozzi (lost to Thales Leites) vs. Anthony Smith: Camozzi’s looked much-improved, but it didn’t really help him any against a step up in competition, as Thales Leites just took him down at will and eventually submitted him. So, back to the morass of middling...middleweights for now, and let’s go with Anthony Smith, who lost to Cezar “Mutante” Ferreira at the TUF Finale right before UFC 200.
Rony Jason (lost to Dennis Bermudez) vs Daniel Hooker: TUF Brazil 1 winner Rony Jason got a big step up in competition and fell short, but still had some brief moments and showed he could be a dangerous threat in bursts. I see him as someone that can have interesting action fights rather than a future contender, so let’s pull things back a bit and put him against New Zealand’s Hooker, who’s looked like a solid, developing young fighter in his few UFC fights to date.
Court McGee (beat Dominique Steele) vs. Belal Muhammad/Augusto Montano (UFC Fight Night 94) winner: McGee’s win over Steele was a bit iffy - after an initial burst, McGee actually got the worse of a lot of exchanges, but was basically just able to pin Steele against the fence and kill time to win the decision. So McGee projects as more of a gatekeeper, so let’s give him an interesting prospect in Muhammad, who I’m assuming beats Augusto Montano in Texas next month.
Teruto Ishihara (beat Horacio Gutierrez) vs. Diego Rivas: Ishihara looked good in a first-round knockout of Horacio Gutierrez, then gave another one of his memorable post-fight interviews. Ishihara’s still a raw athlete with a ton of potential, so let’s keep moving him up slowly and give him Chile’s Diego Rivas, a TUF: Latin America 1 alum who came back from a long injury layoff to score a beautiful flying knee knockout over Noad Lahat in February.
Maryna Moroz (beat Danielle Taylor) vs. Randa Markos/Cortney Casey (UFC 202) winner: I am not entirely sure what that was. Moroz probably deserved to win just for throwing so much more volume that Taylor, who just evaded everything with her small size and didn’t offer much offense, but Moroz also set the UFC record for lowest accuracy in the process, so...I don’t know what to make of anything. Anyway, let’s put her against the winner of the upcoming Markos/Casey fight, as those two are also frustratingly inconsistent talents who are trying to put it all together.
Zak Cummings (lost to Santiago Ponzinibbio) vs. George Sullivan: Cummings’s counter-punching wasn’t enough to knock Santiago Ponzinibbio on-track, and Cummings would up getting beat up pretty badly en route to a clear decision loss. For his next fight, let’s give him a bit of a bounce-back opportunity against Sullivan, who’s a big, aggressive fighter and should make for a solid fight - as long as Sullivan has no issues stemming from some medication precautions that got him pulled from the Chicago card a few weeks back.
Trevor Smith (beat Joe Gigliotti) vs. Sam Alvey/Kevin Casey (UFC on Fox 21) winner: Smith used his size to grind out promising prospect Gigliotti, and probably deserves a decent fight now, despite two straight boring wins and a lack of athleticism. Let’s give him the winner of the upcoming Alvey/Casey bout - the Alvey fight would just be a weird veteran matchup with a chance of an Alvey KO, and a Casey fight would at least minimize the damage by putting two grinders against each other.
Marcin Tybura (beat Viktor Pesta) vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov/Walt Harris (UFC Fight Night 96) winner: Tybura recovered quite nicely from a disappointing UFC debut, eschewing his typical grappling-based gameplan against a solid wrestler and looking quite solid on the feet against an overmatched Viktor Pesta, before putting away the Czech with a brutal head kick. Let’s give him the winner of Oregon’s Abdurakhimov/Harris bout, as those two are each veteran heavyweights looking to work their way up the UFC ladder.
David Teymur (beat Jason Novelli) vs. Teemu Packalen: Sweden’s Teymur looked surprisingly good here, showing some crisp and occasionally violent kickboxing - he called out Sage Northcutt after the fight, but honestly, Teymur looked good enough that UFC probably won’t risk doing that fight. Instead, it’ll probably be someone like Packalen, a Finnish prospect who’s looked interesting in two UFC fights so far - plus the Scandinavian vs. Scandinavian angle is perfect for a European card.
Justin Ledet (beat Chase Sherman) vs. Jared Cannonier: Ledet looked good in his UFC debut, showing a solid, athletic striking game, if a complete lack of defense. Let’s keep inching him up the heavyweight ladder against Cannonier, a mobile knockout artist who put away Cyril Asker for his first UFC win in April.
Dominique Steele (lost to Court McGee) vs. Nicolas Dalby/Peter Sobotta (UFC Fight Night 93) loser: Steele actually didn’t look that bad in losing a close decision to McGee, but he’s lost 3 out of 4 UFC fights and two straight, so he may be on the way out. If not, the loser of Dalby/Sobotta in Germany next month would be in a similar boat - guys who are solid enough to hang around the lower reaches of UFC, but coming off a second straight loss.
Joe Gigliotti (lost to Trevor Smith) vs. Adam Hunter/Ryan Janes (UFC on Fox 21) loser: Gigliotti looked like a promising prospect, so of course he got taken down and grinded out by Trevor Smith in an uninspiring UFC debut. Let’s match him up with the loser of the Hunter/Janes fight in a few weeks, as those two are each promising Canadians making their UFC debut, so the loser and Gigliotti will be in the same boat.
Danielle Taylor (lost to Maryna Moroz) vs. Seohee Ham: Taylor actually fought a smart fight against Moroz, just evading and evading, as unwatchable as it was, but it’s frustrating that one of the few strawweights to actually have knockout power probably won’t be able to use it, since Taylor is just five feet tall. She probably should fight in a 105-pound division that doesn’t exist in UFC, so let’s put her against Korea’s Ham, who’s done decently despite being a natural 105-pounder herself. It’s probably a easy Ham win, but it should at least be a fun brawl in the process.
Horacio Gutierrez (lost to Teruto Ishihara) vs. Artem Lobov/Chris Avila (UFC 202) loser: It’s unclear if UFC is going to keep Gutierrez around - the TUF: Latin America 2 runner-up is a decent prospect, but ridiculously raw and will likely have trouble finding wins in the UFC. If he sticks around, let’s put him against the loser of the upcoming Lobov/Avila bout, as each guy is more here because of who they train with than any real UFC-level talent.
Jason Novelli (lost to David Teymur) vs. Jordan Rinaldi: Novelli basically just got beat at his own game by a better kickboxer, and already being age 37, I’m not sure where the ceiling is from here. But to start with, let’s just put him against Rinaldi, another lightweight that lost his UFC debut, in his case against Abel Trujillo in May.
Chase Sherman (lost to Justin Ledet) vs. Viktor Pesta (lost to Marcin Tybura): Mostly due to lack of other available options - Pesta is likely gone, despite still having some promise, after dropping 3 of 4, so it’d probably be more realistic for Sherman to fight one of the many heavyweights that UFC has signed that have lost in their debut. But I try to keep things consistent throughout editions of this “column”, and all those guys are currently occupied with other lower-level heavyweights that have fought recently - so let’s just throw these two against each other.