UFC Fight Night 92 Preview
WHAT'S HAPPENING: *Well, 2016 has been the year of the upsets, and UFC 201 continued that trend. Tyron Woodley was considered a dangerous opponent for welterweight champ Robbie Lawler, but in the grand scheme of the public consciousness, was more of a roadblock on the way to more interesting matchups for Lawler, like Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia, or a rematch with Carlos Condit. So, of course, Woodley wound up absolutely starching Lawler with a perfect right hook a little over two minutes into the fight and got the knockout to become welterweight champ. Nothing against Woodley, who's obviously a really likable fighter and a nice enough guy, but he had no momentum going into this fight - he basically got an unimpressive win over Kelvin Gastelum and successfully held himself out for eighteen months until things broke right for him to get a title shot - and it looks like we might be stuck in stasis for a bit more, since Woodley seems like he's going to turn down fights with worthy contenders like Thompson in favor of big money fights against, say, a Nick Diaz or a returning Georges St. Pierre. Which, by all means get that paper, but it's a bit frustrating to see. On the plus side, there's still a lot of interesting matchups for Lawler and a lot of the same potential wars will still be there, so I guess everything will work itself out. *The top of the card saw two other big upsets, led by Karolina Kowalkiewicz punching her ticket to a strawweight title fight with fellow Pole Joanna Jedrzejczyk with a decision win over Rose Namajunas. Namajunas was actually doing quite well in the early parts of the fight with a measured distance striking game, but things went to hell as soon as Namajunas tried to start grappling, where one figured she'd have the advantage. Kowalkiewicz just kept herself upright, grabbed Namajunas in the clinch, and wailed away at her with some vicious knees that took a ton out of Thug Rose - and at that point, Kowalkiewicz was able to cruise past a tired Namajunas for the win. Sadly, I don't like Kowalkiewicz's chances against Joanna Champion - though she's overperformed a ton in her UFC career to date - but it'll be cool to see an all-Pole title fight; the question is if UFC decides to run it in Poland or just places it prominently on a card at Madison Square Garden, since New York has the largest Polish population in the U.S. That Kowalkiewicz win came after the most stunning upset of the night, as Jake Ellenberger revived his career with a shocking sub-two minute knockout of Matt Brown. Ellenberger had looked completely done for the better part of three years, and at one point was actually cut by UFC, after which he apparently asked for one more chance, which came here. Brown looked to be a horrible matchup for Ellenberger, even beyond the theoretical gap in talent - Brown's an aggressive, swarming brawler, and while Ellenberger was once a feared knockout artist, he'd looked absolutely unable to pull the trigger. But Ellenberger stunned Brown early and almost finished him, and then after gassing himself in the process, threw a miracle kick to the liver as Brown began pressuring him that crumpled Brown and gave Ellenberger the upset win. It's more Ellenberger keeping his UFC career alive than any sort of sign that he's back to being a contender, but still, good for Ellenberger, and he looked better here than he has in years. *The rest of the card was pretty fun, if non-consequential. The biggest development was probably Ukrainian Nikita Krylov establishing himself as a legitimate light heavyweight prospect with a beautiful head kick knockout of Ed Herman. It's not just that Herman was Krylov's best win to date, but this was also the first time Krylov looked, well, good, showing a measured striking game instead of just being a berserker and beating lower-level foes with his sheer aggression. Krylov was a punchline after an awful UFC debut, so it's pretty crazy to think he's a legitimate top ten or so fighter in any UFC division, but here we are. Mexican prospect Erik Perez continued his solid rise with a decision win over Francisco Rivera, even though he risked it with a crazy brawl with Rivera to kick off the third round - but throwing so many bombs exhausted Rivera, and Perez was able to outgrapple him for the final round to cinch the victory. Ryan Benoit beat Fredy Serrano at flyweight in a weird fight to open up the pay-per-view card - Serrano, a former Olympic wrestler out of Colombia, is obviously a talented athlete, but basically threw a bunch of weird, ineffective offense, like axe kicks, but was able to get the occasional takedown on Benoit, so the result was just a messy fifteen-minute affair that Benoit eked out. Jorge Masvidal stopped a bit of a skid with a clear decision win over Ross Pearson, who was taking a one-off fight up a weight class - Pearson could just do nothing against Masvidal's size, so the results got pretty one-sided near the end. There were a few quick wins early on in the card - Wilson Reis, who was slated for a flyweight title fight on this card, ran through the debuting Hector Sandoval, Anthony Hamilton knocked out fellow heavyweight Damian Grabowski in just 14 seconds, and Australia's Damien Brown took out Paraguay's Cesar Arzamendia in a low-level lightweight fight. And lastly, prospects Michael Graves and Bojan Velickovic went to an unsatisfying draw that mostly saw Velickovic's size neutralize Graves's wrestling. *One fight you may notice missing from that rundown is a flyweight bout between Justin Scoggins and Ian McCall, and that's because Scoggins basically suddenly found himself unable to sweat off any more weight, resulting in the fight being called off. Scoggins then announced he's moving up to bantamweight, which is probably the right move, but this makes two guys that would've been interesting contenders for Demetrious Johnson, who needs them, unable to actually make 125 - and amusingly, the other, John Lineker, was forced to move up after also fighting with McCall. Scoggins was coming into his own as a prospect, so it sucks that flyweight loses such an interesting talent, but hey, maybe he'll have the same success that Lineker did at bantamweight. *The annual meeting between all the state governing bodies is going on right now, and we have some rule changes. There are a few highlights - the first one is basically clarifying in the rules that effective offense takes precedence over control - basically, if you hit a guy really hard and then get taken down and laid on for most of the round, hitting the guy hard should count for more and win the round. Second, and probably the biggest one, is that extending your fingers towards an opponent will now be a foul - a lot of fighters have used this to gauge distance, and the result has been a ton of eye pokes, so this is probably the only effective way to get ahead of the problem and prevent the eye pokes that have been happening more and more frequently. Third, the definition of a "grounded fighter" has changed - basically, you now need to have both palms or fists touching the canvas, so this will prevent fighters from trying to play the game we sometimes see when they're against the fence, trying to touch the ground at just the right time so they aren't allowed to get kneed in the face. There's also some language about female attire needing to be more form-fitting, which will be interesting given UFC's Reebok deal - some of the female fighters have chosen to wear shirts over their sports bras, a decision that has only looked better after some wardrobe issues that have plagued a few fighters, like Elizabeth Phillips, Maryna Moroz, and Valerie Letourneau. Most of these rules will definitely be adopted by a vast majority of states, but it's unclear at the moment what will happen in some of the states that either abstained or voted against these rule changes, New Jersey being the most notable. If New Jersey doesn't adopt these changes, they may have shot themselves in the foot as far as major MMA is concerned, particularly with New York now being open for business. ------ BOOKINGS: *A week after wondering if UFC's card in Brasilia was still going down, thanks to a whole bunch of radio silence on the subject, we now pretty much have an entire twelve-fight card set, even though UFC has only actually confirmed that the card is taking place. The rumored main event is an interesting one - Cris Cyborg is apparently back in the UFC for a 140-pound catchweight fight, and instead of fighting someone already on the UFC roster, she'll apparently be taking on Swedish kickboxer Lina Lansberg, who makes her debut after a 6-1 run on the European scene. Lansberg's nickname is the "Elbow Princess", which is pretty cool, but I'm not sure how much that will help her here. There's some other interesting stuff - former bantamweight champ Renan Barao has his second fight at featherweight against former TUF winner Phillipe Nover, and in amusing bit of matchmaking, UFC is pitting Erick Silva against Brandon Thatch in a bout of former quick knockout artist prospects whose careers have turned south. Plus there's a good mix of vets - Rani Yahya takes on Michinori Tanaka in what should be a fun grappling battle, and Jussier Formiga looks to re-affirm himself as a top flyweight contender against Dustin Ortiz - and prospects - Gilbert Burns takes on veteran wrestler Michel Prazeres, and surprisingly successful TUF Brazil 4 alum Joaquim Silva welcomes top New York-based prospect Gregor Gillespie to the UFC. Should be a fun card, even if we're approaching UFC overkill. *UFC heads to Portland, Oregon the week after that Brasilia card, and a bunch of bouts have been announced for that show, though there's no main event yet. The most interesting bout of the bunch is probably former Bellator champ Will Brooks getting matched up against Alex "Cowboy" Oliveira, who returns to 155 after a bit of a run at welterweight. It should be a really fun fight, though it suggests that UFC is bringing Brooks up along the typical prospect track rather than treating him like an immediate contender. As far as other top fights, featherweight prospect Brian Ortega gets thrown another tough veteran test in Hacran Dias, and rising flyweights Louis Smolka and Sergio Pettis square off, even if it feels like Smolka has probably done more to move himself up the contender ladder. Plus there's some other interesting fights that figure to be further down on the card - Bobby Green looks to get his career back going against Josh Burkman, and Nate Marquardt looks to extend his career against Tamdan McCrory, who needs a win himself to keep his own sudden resurgence growing. *All in all, the two most interesting fights might have been the ones announced for the TUF: Latin America 3 finale, which takes place in Mexico City at the beginning of November. Former lightweight champ Rafael dos Anjos looks to get back on track against Tony Ferguson, who figured to be one of the top contenders for the belt, in what should be an absolutely awesome fight. And the other fight announced isn't too shabby either, as top prospects Beneil Dariush and Rashid Magomedov will face off in what should be a pretty great striker-versus-grappler fight. The Ferguson/dos Anjos fight also means Eddie Alvarez's first title defense will likely be against Khabib Nurmagomedov, and rumor has it UFC is setting that up for a card in Alvarez's native Philadelphia. One assumes that'll be either the December Fox show or UFC 206, though the latter would mean that UFC is abandoning the usual big late-December show in Vegas - maybe what figures to be a stacked UFC 205 card in New York City will essentially take the place of that this year? Plus, UFC sort of alluded to a return to Montreal before the year is out, so one also wonders where that fits in. *And some other late odds and ends, with the most notable being two bouts rumored for UFC 204, which hasn't been officially announced for Manchester, but is almost definitely taking place in England at this point. Top heavyweight prospect Ruslan Magomedov starts his rise up the rankings against Dutch vet Stefan Struve, and Ovince St. Preux and Jimi Manuwa square off in a bout between two fringe top-ten light heavyweights. Plus, the Hamburg show in September sees Iuri Alcantara replace Henry Briones against Brad Pickett in what should be a solid fight, and UFC 202 adds a strawweight bout on short notice between Randa Markos and Cortney Casey. ----- ROSTER CUTS: 1) Matt Hobar (9-3 overall, 1-2 UFC, last fought 12/6/14, L vs. Sergio Pettis): Hobar quietly announced his retirement due to a litany of neck injuries that had kept him out since 2014. Hobar was a solid prospect with a boxing/wrestling game and probably a bit underrated, but UFC sort of viewed him as the kind of guy to help build up more blue-chip prospects, as two of his three fights were against Pedro Munhoz and Sergio Pettis. And in that vein, Hobar was slated to match up with Japanese legend Kid Yamamoto to finally get Kid a UFC win last September, but as is the story of both men's careers, both Hobar and Yamamoto got hurt in the weeks leading up to the bout, and the fight was scrapped completely. ----- UPCOMING UFC SHOWS: 8/20 - UFC 202 - Las Vegas, NV - Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor, Anthony Johnson vs. Glover Teixeira, Donald Cerrone vs. Rick Story 8/27 - UFC on Fox 21 - Vancouver, BC - Carlos Condit vs. Demian Maia, Charles Oliveira vs. Anthony Pettis, Bec Rawlings vs. Paige VanZant 9/3 - UFC Fight Night 93 - Hamburg, Germany - Andrei Arlovski vs. Josh Barnett, Jan Blachowicz vs. Alexander Gustafsson, Ryan Bader vs. Ilir Latifi 9/10 - UFC 203 - Cleveland, OH - Stipe Miocic ( c ) vs. Alistair Overeem, Ben Rothwell vs. Fabricio Werdum, Mickey Gall vs. CM Punk 9/17 - UFC Fight Night 94 - Hidalgo, TX - Michael Johnson vs. Dustin Poirier, Derek Brunson vs. Uriah Hall 9/24 - UFC Fight Night 95 - Brasilia, Brazil - Cris Cyborg vs. Lina Lansberg, Roy Nelson vs. Antonio Silva 10/1 - UFC Fight Night 96 - Portland, OR - Will Brooks vs. Alex Oliveira, Hacran Dias vs. Brian Ortega, Sergio Pettis vs. Louis Smolka 10/8 - UFC 204 - Manchester, England - Michael Bisping ( c ) vs. Dan Henderson, Vitor Belfort vs. Gegard Mousasi 11/5 - TUF: Latin America 3 Finale - Mexico City, Mexico - Rafael dos Anjos vs. Tony Ferguson, Beneil Dariush vs. Rashid Magomedov 12/3 - TUF 24 Finale - Las Vegas, NV - Joseph Benavidez vs. Henry Cejudo ----- UFC Fight Night 92 - August 6, 2016 - Vivint Smart Home Arena - Salt Lake City, Utah It was pretty amusing when UFC announced their first show in Utah, considering they had pretty much vowed never to run the state again six years ago. You see, UFC decided to hold a show on what was then the Versus network, headlined by then-rising star Jon Jones in Salt Lake City in August of 2010 - which is all perfectly fine stuff, until they announced the show would be on a Sunday. In heavily Mormon Utah, this didn't fly, since Sunday is a day of rest, and after ticket sales came in way slower than expected, UFC made the somewhat unprecedented move to just pull the card from Utah entirely and move it to San Diego. You'd think, given the history, that UFC would have loaded the card up with starpower, but instead it's a weird little show headlined by Mexican prospect Yair Rodriguez of all people, who doesn't really seem like a big cultural fit for Utah, and featuring a bunch of prospects and action fighters rather than any big names. This should be a really fun one, though - unlike some undercards (I'm thinking in particular of the Fox card from Chicago), UFC did well to load this up with fun fights, so while it may not be the most immediately consequential stuff, it should be a pretty entertaining Saturday night. MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1 - 10:00 PM ET): Featherweight: (#13) Yair Rodriguez vs. Alex Caceres Featherweight: (#8) Dennis Bermudez vs. Rony Jason Middleweight: (#12) Thales Leites vs. Chris Camozzi Welterweight: Zak Cummings vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio Middleweight: Joseph Gigliotti vs. Trevor Smith Women's Strawweight: (#9) Maryna Moroz vs. Danielle Taylor PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1 - 8:00 PM ET): Welterweight: Court McGee vs. Dominique Steele Heavyweight: Viktor Pesta vs. Marcin Tybura Lightweight: Jason Novelli vs. David Teymur Featherweight: Horacio Gutierrez vs. Teruto Ishihara PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass - 7:00 PM ET): Featherweight: (#5) Cub Swanson vs. (#14) Tatsuya Kawajiri Heavyweight: Justin Ledet vs. Chase Sherman THE RUNDOWN: Yair Rodriguez (8-1 overall, 4-0 UFC) vs. Alex Caceres (12-8 [1] overall, 7-6 [1] UFC): So Why Should You Care?: Because Yair Rodriguez may be the most entertaining prospect in the UFC, and UFC's matched him against someone who's going to make for both an interesting test and a fun as hell fight. Rodriguez got some notoriety as one of UFC's next big Mexican hopes after winning season 1 of TUF: Latin America, but the worry was that he was still too young and too raw to make any real sort of immediate impact. But like most of his other TUF: Latin America alums, Rodriguez has greatly exceeded expectations - just a year ago, someone like Charles Rosa was considered too big of a step up for Rodriguez, but he's pretty much run through every challenge put in front of him so far, and is rightfully ranked in the top fifteen at featherweight. And it's not just the fact that Rodriguez is winning his fights, but how he does it - he's got a solid wrestling game and some decent submission skills, but the real star of the show is his diverse and unorthodox striking arsenal. Rodriguez is capable of firing off all sorts of impressive single strikes - his double-step flying head kick knockout of Andre Fili in his last fight being the most impressive - but also just chains things together in weird ways that throw his opponent off and sets up either a takedown or an attempt at some sort of finishing blow. Rodriguez probably needs to tighten things up at some point, but right now being flashy has been effective for "El Pantera", so why mess with success. He gets an interesting step up in competition here against UFC vet Alex Caceres, who's sort of learning the lessons that Rodriguez will probably have to at some point. Caceres has seemingly always been a favorite of UFC brass thanks to his personality and the "Bruce Leeroy" personality he showed on his season of TUF, as the company stuck with him even after a rough patch to start his career, and that's mostly paid off - 2012-14 saw Caceres reel off a five-fight unbeaten streak that suddenly saw him become a going concern in the bantamweight division. But once UFC threw Caceres against top contenders, things pretty much fell apart - he was game in a loss to Urijah Faber, but followed that up with a flat decision loss to Masanori Kanehara and a 21-second knockout loss to Francisco Rivera - and the Miami native suddenly found his back against the wall. Caceres announced a move back up to featherweight, where he spent earlier in his career, and it looks like he's turned a corner - once all speed and dynamism, Caceres has suddenly put together a pretty cohesive striking game to complement his underrated grappling, and he's put on two of the better performances in his career against Masio Fullen and Cole Miller. Still somehow just 28, Caceres looks like he's finally coming into his own, so while Rodriguez is clearly the A-side as far as prospects in this matchup, this is also a huge opportunity for Caceres to capitalize on some momentum in what might be the prime run of his career. The Fight: This is a really hard fight to call, especially given how well Caceres performed in his last fight against Miller. Rodriguez's flashy, dynamic style has been awesome to watch as he's risen up the ranks, but it's somewhat reminiscent of Anthony Pettis, for better or for worse. Pettis did look like one of the best fighters in the world and had a lightweight title reign, so that's far from an insult, but as the former champ has skidded we've seen some problems with relying on single, explosive strikes - if opponents basically just learn not to fear them, they can just apply pressure, take you out of your game, and basically prevent you from throwing any of those blows. The question is if Caceres is both capable and willing to do that - the version of Caceres we've seen for most of his career wouldn't have been able to, but if it's the version that showed up in the Miller fight, who was able to pounce on openings, apply pressure, and basically take over most of that bout, I could easily see him frustrating Rodriguez and taking a decision. There's just so many factors at play here for both guys - from the Caceres side, it's having faith that a mercurial fighter is finally seeing things click coming off a career-best performance, and on the Rodriguez side, it's a question of exactly how far his dynamic, aggressive style can take him up the ladder. Even in the Andre Fili fight, which saw Rodriguez get a spectacular KO, there were times when Rodriguez would just try some insane strike and sort of crash and burn, and if Caceres is on point, I could easily see him taking advantage of those openings and start rolling downhill in terms of momentum. But even if Caceres is controlling the fight, there's always the chance that Rodriguez, even on his heels, could throw some sort of out of nowhere kick that catches Caceres, who even at his best hasn't been a defensive dynamo, off guard. I've gone back and forth since I've started thinking about this fight in depth, but I'll say this is the speed bump for Rodriguez and Caceres wins a close decision, though I honestly wouldn't be surprised by the fight in going pretty much any direction. Dennis Bermudez (15-5 overall, 8-3 UFC) vs. Rony Jason (14-5 [1] overall, 4-2 [1] UFC): So Why Should You Care?: Because Dennis Bermudez is a pretty fun as hell fighter, and Rony Jason is just tricky enough to make this interesting. Bermudez lost the featherweight final of season 14 of TUF to Diego Brandao, but Bermudez has gone on to be a standout from that season, reeling off seven straight wins from 2012 to 2014 that put him right near the top contenders at 145. But once he got in that picture, things didn't go too hot, as Bermudez's lack of defensive awareness finally caught up with him - Ricardo Lamas was able to stun him with a jab and jump on a choke in pretty short order, and Bermudez was winning a bout against Jeremy Stephens before he got over-aggressive and Stephens caught him with a surprise flying knee. So Bermudez started 2016 sort of trying to pick up the pieces and regain his momentum, and he began the year well enough, relying on his wrestling base to mostly grind out a decision over Tatsuya Kawajiri. Now he faces what's probably a step down in terms of competition, but a much trickier matchup, in TUF: Brazil 1 winner Rony Jason. Coming off an inaugural season that did really well, Jason had the potential to become the next big star in his native country, but it looks like he's sort of topping out as an action fighter and a fan favorite - there are worse fates. Jason honestly isn't too different from the man he beat to win the season, and someone we saw a few weeks ago in Godofredo Pepey - Jason's game is pretty much based all on aggression, with powerful strikes and some quick submissions, and he's had some success in pretty spectacular fashion as UFC started building him up. But Jason's on a bit of a skid - he looked flat in a decision loss to Robbie Peralta, and while Jason clamped on a beautiful triangle choke submission to tap out Damon Jackson last year, he failed a drug test for a banned diuretic, and has been out of action for about fourteen months. The Fight: This is clearly Bermudez's fight to lose, but the interesting part is that Bermudez has enough defensive deficiencies to lose it, and Jason is aggressive enough to capitalize. Bermudez has a strong wrestling base, and as he showed against Kawajiri, is willing to rely upon it as needed, and while he should have no problem taking Jason down, the Brazilian's last win (well, no contest due to the failed drug test) showed how he can just spring into action and uncoil a choke in a pretty short window. It's a similar story in the striking department - while Bermudez has looked solid on his feet for most of his career, he's hittable, and guys like Lamas and Stephens have shown that when Bermudez gets hit, he doesn't react all that well. Bermudez should be dominating this fight for as long as it goes on, but unless Jason gasses badly, there should always be the threat of some sort of choke or knockout blow that would score the upset - still, I'll say that Bermudez is able to rely on his wrestling and hold on for the decision. Thales Leites (25-6 overall, 10-5 UFC) vs. Chris Camozzi (24-10 overall, 9-7 UFC): So Why Should You Care?: Because Chris Camozzi might be on the best run of his career, and Thales Leites needs a win to stay relevant. Camozzi's had a streaky UFC career over three separate runs - the first saw him pretty much just get sacrificed to Australian Kyle Noke to kick off a card in Sydney, and his second run was a weird one. Camozzi wound up winning four straight fights, moving up the ladder despite none of them being particularly wide margins of victory against middling competition, which earned him the opportunity to get blown out of the water by Jacare Souza, and then see those close decisions turn against him, as he lost three more fights to find his way out of the UFC. Camozzi actually found himself back in the UFC a third time just a few months later, in April of 2015, as he was basically the only guy willing to fight Souza again on super-short notice, and managed to lose in even quicker fashion than the first time. But surprisingly, Camozzi's rebounded from that loss with a pretty nice run - he looked like the same old Camozzi in a win over Tom Watson, and ran through a broken down Joe Riggs, but he's coming off what might be a career-best performance over Vitor Miranda, taking a pretty dominant decision and using a more aggressive game to take out a fellow streaking middleweight. Camozzi looks to come off of that and take on his biggest test (non-Souza division) yet in Thales Leites, who's re-affirmed himself as a division mainstay, but is badly in need of a win. Leites challenged for the middleweight title all the way back in 2009, in an infamous fight against Anderson Silva where neither guy did much of anything - the bout was so bad that after one more loss, Leites went from title challenger to being cut from the promotion. That made it a surprise when Leites was suddenly re-signed in 2013 after putting together a few wins, reportedly as a favor to teammate Jose Aldo. Leites's first few wins back in the UFC were the same grinding affairs as ever, but bouts against Trevor Smith and Francis Carmont saw Leites suddenly flash a powerful striking game, and one more win over Tim Boetsch surprisingly put Leites back on the map as a top middleweight contender. But after losing a close decision to Michael Bisping and getting pieced up on the feet against Gegard Mousasi, Leites's sudden comeback effort has sort of plateaued, and he's in need of a win here to prove that he's still one of the better fighters in the division. The Fight: This should be a fun one - it's amazing to say that consistently now about a Leites fight, given how he was one of the most boring fighters on the roster for years. Camozzi's much-improved - there was a stat a few years back, I believe, where he had never attempted a takedown despite ten or so UFC fights, but the Miranda fight showed some ability for him to mix things up and keep opponents on their heels. But I'm not sure that will work here against Leites - I wouldn't be surprised if Camozzi was able to get the better of things on a feet, as improved as Leites's striking generally is, but Camozzi's faced few guys who are willing to just take down and work for a submission - the one exception being Jacare Souza, who was pretty much able to tap out Camozzi at will in their two fights. Admittedly, Souza's as good of a BJJ player as you'll find in the division, so that may say more about Jacare's skill than any shortcomings by Camozzi, but Leites is a great submission artist in his own right, and even if Camozzi is winning a striking battle, Leites should always have the ground game in his back pocket. So I'll say Leites by submission, and let's say in the second round. Zak Cummings (19-4 overall, 4-1 UFC, 1-0 Bellator, 0-1 Strikeforce) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (22-3 overall, 4-2 UFC): So Why Should You Care?: Because this should be a surprisingly fun fight between two under-the-radar welterweights. Zak Cummings has quietly exceeded expectations since coming off season 17 of TUF back in 2013 - seen as sort of a low-upside veteran, Cummings has put together a 4-1 UFC record, despite a bunch of layoffs due to injuries. He's even flashed some surprising skills - coming in with a rep as more of a grappler, and living up to that with a beautiful D'Arce choke win in his UFC debut, Cummings has flashed some impressive striking in his last few bouts, scoring a quick knockout of Dominique Steele last year before winning what was mostly a stand-up battle against undefeated Danish prospect Nicolas Dalby in April. He'll get some more chances to test out that striking against Argentina's Santiago Ponzinibbio, who's quickly becoming a reliable action fighter with his kickboxing style. I'm not sure how much upside is left - Ponzinibbio got pinned to the ground by Ryan LaFlare in his UFC debut back in 2013, and Lorenz Larkin solidly won a brawl over him last year - but Ponzinibbio is carving out an excellent niche as an action fighter. He'll take a bit to get going, but once Ponzinibbio starts to get into a rhythm it's some pretty stuff, as he'll slide out of the way of punches and then just unleash hell upon his opponents, hitting big strikes before swarming for the finish. Somewhat amusing, given that his "Gente Boa" nickname in Portuguese translates to "Nice Guy." So this fight is mostly here for excitement purposes, but keep an eye on the winner - it's still not too late for them to make a little bit of a run in what's admittedly a loaded division. The Fight: Cummings may just be able to win this by taking Ponzinibbio down and grinding it out, but he hasn't shown too much of a proclivity to do so, so I think we'll get a bit of a firefight. Cummings looked good against Dalby in countering pretty much everything the Dane tried to throw at him, doing so with impressive power at times, but Dalby's thing is more precision than athleticism, so it'll be interesting to see how he fares against Ponzinibbio, who's a more elusive threat. It's a bit of a tough one to call, since Cummings may prove very much able to just defend and react against the Argentinian, but I'll say Ponzinibbio eventually finds his rhythm and gets through Cummings's defenses for a swarming second-round knockout. Should be a fun fight no matter how it goes, though. Joseph Gigliotti (7-0 overall) vs. Trevor Smith (13-6 overall, 3-3 UFC, 2-2 Strikeforce): So Why Should You Care?: Because "Capo" Joe Gigliotti might be a thing. The Arizona native has pretty much run through a fairly solid slate of opposition thus far, tapping out a solid prospect in John Poppie in just 58 seconds in his last fight for RFA, a group that's pretty much becoming the premier feeder organization into the UFC. UFC brass must be among those who are high on Gigliotti given his slotting here on the main card, and giving him a solid first test in Trevor Smith. "Hot Sauce" is pretty much the perfect gatekeeper at middleweight for a spot like this - he's a crafty veteran grappler, and savvy enough if slow on the feet, and should provide a good, but not unbeatable test to see exactly how ready Gigliotti is to move up the ladder at 185. The Fight: There's a path to victory for Smith here, given the size difference - if nothing else, Smith is a huge middleweight, and Gigliotti is short and stocky for the division, so there's a solid enough possibility that Smith can just enact his preferred gameplan and grind out a decision win over Gigliotti. He did that in his last fight, over a shopworn Dan Miller, but even in that fight he was getting hit on the feet, and therein lies the rub. While Smith is big, he's slow and hittable, and Gigliotti has shown an ability to hit, so the hot prospect will probably get the finish sooner rather than later - it's just a question of if Gigliotti gets the knockout outright, or stuns Smith and hops onto a choke for the submission. I'll say Gigliotti just gets the first round knockout. Maryna Moroz (7-1 overall, 2-1 UFC) vs. Danielle Taylor (7-1 overall): So Why Should You Care?: Because Maryna Moroz is an interesting talent in the strawweight division, and Danielle Taylor's a solid enough addition. Moroz came into UFC with a bang - she was a bit of a baffling signing at first, as she was 5-0 against a pretty low level of competition (including what appeared to be a dwarf in her native Ukraine), but she managed one of the bigger upsets of 2015 by tapping out top contender Joanne Calderwood in just 90 seconds. In her subsequent two bouts, Moroz has proven to be more prospect than top contender, but there's still a ton to like, she's long, mean, tough, and is quickly supplementing her submission game with some solid boxing. She faces California's Danielle Taylor, who makes her UFC debut on about ten days notice - Taylor's tiny for the division as just five feet tall even, but that hasn't stopped her from having some success, as she's knocked out her last two opponents. The Fight: I had trouble finding stuff to watch on Taylor, but what's out there is pretty simple - she just basically stays on the outside, uses her small frame to be evasive, and just waits for an opportunity to uncork a big knockout blow, which she seems to have the power to pull off, even at 115. Plus she apparently can sometimes use that to just get inside and work a takedown game in fights I haven't seen. But I don't really see how she can get that going against Moroz, particularly on such short notice - while Taylor's almost always at a size disadvantage, Moroz is one of the longer fighters she's faced, and is quickly learning how to use that to good effect. So I just see this fight as a lot of Moroz keeping Taylor at distance and frustrating her as the fight goes on - Moroz by decision, but hopefully we get some fun exchanges, either standing or on the ground. Court McGee (17-5 overall, 6-4 UFC) vs. Dominique Steele (14-7 overall, 1-2 UFC, 0-1 Bellator, 1-0 Strikeforce): So Why Should You Care?: Because everyone likes Court McGee, and hey, he's fighting in his hometown, and it should be a pretty fun fight besides. McGee won season 11 of TUF back in 2010, and was one of the more likable guys to win the show, a former drug addict who at one point was clinically dead but recovered, turned his life around, and tries to use his fighting success at a platform to speak out against addiction. As a fighter, McGee was doing alright, but finally seemed to be hitting a groove after cutting down from middleweight to welterweight, beating Josh Neer and Robert Whittaker to start 2013. But the last few years have been a bit of a rough patch - McGee lost a clear decision to Ryan LaFlare, then spent about two years on the shelf with a myriad of injuries before coming back and beating Marcio Alexandre. But McGee just suffered the first stoppage loss of his career in April to Santiago Ponzinibbio, and it looks like he's plateauing as sort of a fan-favorite action fighter. McGee fights on UFC's debut in his native Utah against Ohio's Dominique Steele, who's pretty much solid roster filler. Steele's main attribute is his ability to push the pace - throughout his fights, Steele's always looking to move forward into the clinch or throw some sort of big strike, so his fights are typically fairly entertaining, even if Steele sometimes isn't skilled enough to make his style that effective. The Fight: I'm not really sure how Steele can win this one, unless he just pressures and neutralizes McGee so much that the hometown boy can't get any offense off. Steele's main goal when pushing the pace is to just use his size to smother and overwhelm his opponents, but as a former middleweight, McGee's a big enough fighter that I can't really see Steele having much success pinning him down or using one of his signature slams. So I just see a lot of Steele charging forward into an aggressive boxing match, which should be entertaining, but McGee is probably tougher, more skilled, and more well-rounded, so this seems pretty much set up for a hometown win, even if it's not quite a gimme. I'll say McGee takes the decision, but a late finish also wouldn't surprise me. Viktor Pesta (10-2 overall, 1-2 UFC) vs. Marcin Tybura (13-2 overall, 0-1 UFC): So Why Should You Care?: Because heavyweight is a wide open division, and these two guys are decent prospects looking to get back on track. Poland's Marcin Tybura came into UFC with some pretty high expectations, given that he had done well against a tough slate of opponents in Europe, including a reign as champion in top Russian promotion M-1. Tybura's game includes some decent striking, but is mostly built around getting things into the clinch and working from there, and that's where he ran into some problems in his UFC debut against Tim Johnson. The UFC heavyweight roster pretty much consists of the giant guys who are able to bully everyone else around in regional promotions, and at "only" about 245 pounds, Tybura is actually on the smaller side of the division - so he had a ton of trouble imposing his will on the larger Johnson, and wound up losing a clinch-heavy decision. Viktor Pesta's sort of had similar issues, being "undersized" at about 240 pounds, along with coming into UFC as a much rawer prospect than Tybura did. Pesta was signed after only a few fights in his native Czech Republic, which doesn't have much of a MMA scene, and he's been able to hang in there against a tough slate of opponents - he fought a pretty close fight against Ruslan Magomedov where Magomedov got the better of things on the feet, came back to get a decision against Konstantin Erokhin, and was actually winning a bout against Derrick Lewis before he started tiring and got knocked out. Pesta didn't come into UFC with that much hype versus some of the heavyweights UFC has signed as part of their new wave the last few years, but he's still a developing fighter to watch. The Fight: It's a tough one to call - it's sort of hard to gauge where Pesta is at since his opponents have either been top-fifteen fighters (Magomedov and Lewis) or not at UFC level (Erokhin), while Tybura just sort of fell flat in a tough matchup and looked much worse than his pre-UFC record would suggest. Add in that both guys are probably looking to grapple and wrestle rather than strike, and this could go either way. I've actually been much more impressed with Pesta - he's proven to be a tenacious wrestler, and just ridiculously tough, eating shots from Erokhin (who if nothing else, is a hard hitter) and even Lewis that would've stopped most guys. But part of me wonders if I'm just underrating Tybura - against a guy who's more his own size, Tybura may be able to just use his fundamental striking game and relative lightness on his feet to keep Pesta at bay and win a decision, or Tybura may just be the much better guy in the wrestling department against someone he can have his way with. But I'll still put my faith in Pesta, and basically rely on the Czech to be more aggressive, use his wrestling, and just sort of grind out a clear decision win. Jason Novelli (11-1-1 overall) vs. David Teymur (4-1 overall, 1-0 UFC): So Why Should You Care?: Because this should be a fun kickboxing match. Jason Novelli's a bit of an odd prospect in that he's already 37, but he's made up for that with about 13 fights in just over three years, and he's carved out a niche as a long kickboxer. He makes his UFC debut here against David Teymur, who's looking to get his career going after a pretty solid run on TUF 22. Teymur made it to the final eight of the show and then put away fellow Swede and castmate Martin Svensson in his UFC debut proper, and he displays a game similar to Novelli, based off solid kickboxing. The Fight: This is more or less a pick 'em - Teymur has never really impressed me, but he's also a decade younger and less experienced than Novelli, so if one of these two guys is set to improve and have a breakout performance, it's probably the Swede. But I'll go with the taller, longer fighter, and say Novelli wins a striking-heavy decision. This is one of those fights where I'm pretty sure that it's going to be a kickboxing match for fifteen minutes (or less), and probably a pretty fun one, but it won't really be clear who has the upper hand until the action gets started. Horacio Gutierrez (2-2 overall, 0-1 UFC) vs. Teruto Ishihara (8-2-2 overall, 1-0-1 UFC): So Why Should You Care?: Because Teruto Ishihara is probably UFC's most interesting Japanese prospect, for a number of reasons. After a run on Road To UFC: Japan, which was basically TUF: Japan, that mostly saw him get his wins by narrow decisions, "Yashabo" looks to be coming into his own, as he was clearly winning his last fight against Julian Erosa before putting the American out. And as interesting as Ishihara's skillset is inside the cage, it has a ways to go before catching up to his personality - Ishihara was a standout on the show thanks to his playboy persona, and he's only outdone himself with his charismatic postfight interviews and a pretty hilarious Twitter feed. The man loves his bitches. The Osaka product looks to keep the momentum going against Mexico's Horacio Gutierrez, who makes his debut at featherweight after losing the lightweight finals of TUF: Latin America 2 late last year. Over the course of the show, Gutierrez looked like one of the season's standouts, with some striking power, solid technique and toughness, but once the finals came around, Peru's Enrique Barzola exposed Gutierrez's complete lack of takedown defense and was pretty easily able to grind out a decision win. The Fight: It's an interesting one - given his personality, I'm assuming UFC sees Ishihara as sort of a priority prospect, and I can see what they're thinking, throwing him against someone who lost on a pretty lackluster season of TUF. But Gutierrez is probably a trickier test than most expect for Ishihara - he's just as willing to keep things standing, has some decent technique, and some knockout power. But Ishihara looked much improved in the five or so months between his last two fights, and it just looks like he's rapidly improving at the same sort of game - though, given Gutierrez's long layoff, there's always the chance the Mexican is much better than we last saw him as well. Still, I'm banking on Ishihara's improvement and athleticism, and I'll say he manages to connect for a second-round stoppage after a fun fight. Cub Swanson (22-7 overall, 7-3 UFC, 5-3 WEC) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (35-9-2 overall, 3-2 UFC, 0-1 Strikeforce, 4-2 PRIDE): So Why Should You Care?: Because Fight Pass probably scored the highest-level bout on this card, an interesting matchup between two featherweight veterans. Cub Swanson was considered a top prospect about a decade ago in WEC, but hit two pretty infamous roadblocks - the first, a quick submission choke loss to what then looked like a shot Jens Pulver, and then in more notorious fashion, an eight-second knockout loss to Jose Aldo as the Brazilian ascended towards the top of the division. Swanson then looked like he was pretty much settling in as a middling gatekeeper, but 2012 saw everything suddenly click, as Swanson became a feared knockout artist as he rode a six-fight win streak up the ranks. A rematch, for the title, against Aldo, would've been a pretty fascinating story, but with the way the division shook out, there was always someone ahead of Swanson in line, and eventually Frankie Edgar stopped Swanson's career renaissance, taking Swanson down at will and pretty much pounding him into oblivion for 25 minutes. After a similarly one-sided loss to rising striker Max Holloway, there were a lot of questions if Swanson was reaching the end of his career, but he rebounded in April with a one-sided decision over Hacran Dias and basically re-affirmed that he's among the better fighters in the division. On the other side of things, Tatsuya Kawajiri is still going strong at 38 years old - it's more of a question of how long he wants to do this, rather than him being capable. Kawajiri spent years as one of the best lightweights in the world, but spent most of his career lording (along with Shinya Aoki) over a scene in his native Japan that was on the decline. He finally started branching out in 2014, cutting to featherweight and heading to UFC for his first fights outside of Asia (save a one-off loss to Gilbert Melendez in Strikeforce), and results have been solid, if a bit mixed. Kawajiri has been able to use his grappling game to put away Dennis Siver and some prospects in pretty easy order, but losses to Clay Guida and Dennis Bermudez have pretty much cemented that a late-career run towards the title isn't in the cards for the "Crusher." The Fight: This is pretty classic striker versus grappler stuff, with Kawajiri looking to get the takedown and impose his strong top position game against the kickboxing Swanson. Frankie Edgar showed that if you can get on top of Swanson and know what you're doing, you can control the fight in one-sided fashion, but, well, Kawajiri has to catch Swanson first. And given that Kawajiri is 38, Swanson should be able to pick Kawajiri apart, keep him at a distance, and cruise to a one-sided decision. Justin Ledet (6-0 [1] overall) vs. Chase Sherman (9-1 overall): So Why Should You Care?: Because it's heavyweights. UFC's been on a signing spree, and they're putting two debuting heavyweights against each other here - Sherman's a Mississippi native and former Delta State football player who's a protege of UFC vet Alan Belcher, and Justin Ledet's a Texas native with a bit of a weird career path - he took a four year layoff from 2012 to 2016 to spend some time as a pro boxer. The Fight: It's a coin flip, given how little is out there on Ledet - he was a light heavyweight prospect in 2012, took four years off, and came back as a heavyweight who's only had two quick fights in 2016, one of which was an eye poke no contest that was stopped before it really got started. Sherman is exactly what you'd think of when you hear "raw heavyweight prospect and former football player", a big athlete who just looks to swing for the finish and ask questions later, so without much evidence otherwise, I'll just say he overwhelms Ledet and gets that first round knockout.