WHAT'S HAPPENING:
*Well, on paper, UFC's offering from Auckland looked like a bunch of nothing prelims giving way to a fun main card, and it followed that blueprint more than anyone really could've expected, as the prelims were absolutely nothing, but the main card did, in fact, offer up a stupid amount of violence. And that included the main event - while it didn't give us a particularly brutal knockout or anything, it was nineteen minutes of big, dumb fun heavyweight action, with Mark Hunt and Derrick Lewis exchanging massive blows. UFC probably figured this would be a chance for Lewis to get a big win and officially become a contender, while possibly marking the end of perennial contender Hunt, who's currently suing the company, but instead it wound up being pretty much exactly the opposite. Lewis has always been a flawed fighter - his cardio wears out quickly, and his fight IQ can sometimes go completely downhill, but as he's risen up the ladder, none of that has really mattered; yes, Lewis will look horrible for the balance of the fight, but he's such a massive, powerful athlete that as long as he's able to hit a big knockout blow, he's going to win the fight. And in this case, that finishing shot just never came - Hunt fought a smart fight and just let Lewis wear down and get tired, and eventually Lewis tired so much that Hunt was able to go in and get the stoppage without much trouble, landing a few punches before the referee stopped it more due to exhaustion than anything else. But the big surprise came after, when Lewis announced that, at least as of now, this was his last fight, which was in a way, both extremely surprising and not at all. Years back, when Lewis was first starting in UFC, he talked about pretty much quitting fighting as soon as he got enough money to pay off his house, but that talk quieted as Lewis reeled off his big winning streak and got what was apparently a decent-sized contract. Reading between the lines, it seems like Lewis was basically willing to continue as long as he kept charging towards the championship, but with that out of the picture for now, and Lewis getting married soon, that's apparently that. Lewis did leave the door just open enough that I'm not taking him off the roster just yet - and if he did indeed sign a fairly big-money deal, I assume he'll be back - but for the time being, heavyweight is down one of its few youngish, interesting fighters.
*That main event came after a run of four finishes, three of which were absolutely brutal. Dan Kelly's miracle winning streak at middleweight came to a brutal end, as Derek Brunson absolutely annihilated him on the first real exchange of the fight, knocking him out in just 76 seconds. It's hard to even say that Brunson returned to his more aggressive form here, as the two guys just sort of felt each other out for a minute, and Brunson then finished the fight before he even really got the chance to get any sort of gameplan going. Local Auckland boy Dan Hooker absolutely annihilated Ross Pearson with a brutal standing knee right up the middle for a second-round knockout, proving that his lanky frame still an advantage, even as he moves up from featherweight to lightweight. This was looking well on its way to being a typical Pearson fight that goes to a close decision, but then Hooker uncorked that knee, and that was that. Pearson's been a reliable hand as an action fighter for years now, so it'll be interesting to see if UFC keeps him on despite four straight losses. Ion Cutelaba did not mess around in a light heavyweight tilt against Henrique da Silva, marching forward to stare da Silva down during fighter introductions, then charging forward and just obliterating the Brazilian in just 22 seconds with some brutal ground-and-pound. Even though he's just 23, Cutelaba hasn't shown much to suggest he'll ever be more than a fun, straight-ahead brawler, but when the Moldovan gets going like he did here, he's absolutely terrifying. And the fourth finish was definitely the biggest upset of the night, as Ben Nguyen was able to tap out Tim Elliott in just 49 seconds. Elliott started to initiate a grapple, but Nguyen just hopped on his back, and that was suddenly that - Nguyen continuing to exceed expectations has been a fun story, and I did like his post-fight interview where, when prompted to call out a next opponent, Nguyen threw some shade UFC's way about their talk of closing the flyweight division. Ben Nguyen is awesome, y'all.
*As for the rest of the card, even the lone decision on the main card was an impressive performance, as Alexander Volkanovski affirmed himself as the best of the Australian prospects. I've generally been down on Volkanovski compared to the consensus, but he looked excellent here against a tough opponent in Mizuto Hirota, showcasing his powerful wrestling and some thudding power that would've knocked out anyone less tough than the Japanese vet. I tend to write off most Australian prospects as potential action fighters and not much else, but Volkanovski's the rare exception that looks like he could become an actual contender. The lone finish on the prelims saw Vinc Pichel return from a three-year layoff to knock out Damien Brown, in a nice moment for Pichel. Though, honestly, I was actually a bit more impressed by Brown - he's seemingly too old and late in his career to turn into a contender or anything, but as someone I had written off as a regional vet who wouldn't have much UFC success, he's supplemented his grappling with some nice striking and was hitting a groove here...until he ran right into a flattening uppercut from Pichel. Debuting New Zealander Luke Jumeau looked good in his UFC debut, as he proved to have enough power and athleticism to counter the rugged wrestling game of Dominique Steele. Australian newcomer Ashkan Mokhtarian looked awful, though, as John Moraga snapped a three-fight losing streak by absolutely dominating Mokhtarian. Mokhtarian's a powerful, if not particularly good, grappler, so maybe there's a lower-tier flyweight or two that Mokhtarian can overpower, but hoo boy was this a bad UFC debut. Zak Ottow defeated Kiichi Kunimoto by split decision in a fight that, as expected, saw nothing interesting happen. And the show kicked off with J.J. Aldrich getting a decision win over Korean newcomer Chan Mi Jeon. The fight didn't really do much to change my opinion of either woman - you can see Jeon's potential, but she's still so young and raw she doesn't really know what she's doing, although she did at least pace herself and fight a smarter fight here. Meanwhile, this really didn't do much to address my concerns of Aldrich being able to handle athletic wrestlers, and Jeon was so inexperienced that Aldrich was just able to pick her apart and keep her at bay.
*So, holy crap! The Conor McGregor/Floyd Mayweather fight is...actually happening? August 26th is the date, and while there have been conflicting reports about which venue in Vegas is hosting the fight, it'll likely be the T-Mobile Arena. So, this is fairly nuts. It always made sense from the perspectives of both fighters, and Showtime as well, since Floyd figures to pick up an easy win, but I'm a bit surprised UFC went along with it, though I guess this speaks to how desperate new ownership is to pay off their debt. Although splits haven't been announced, UFC figures to make a ton of money of this fight - pretty much everyone involved is going to get around $100 million if you assume normal-ish splits, but they may really wind up hurting themselves in the long-term, since they may spell the end of McGregor. I doubt he'll be hurt by the loss, as expectations should be so low that he really has more to gain if he has any moments of success than lose with a loss, even if it winds up being one-sided, but it's becoming harder and harder to see McGregor fighting again for the UFC, even though the promotion is apparently hopeful to have him on UFC 220 on December 30th. But either one of two things is going to happen - either McGregor is just going to make so much bank he's not going to bother fighting again, or if he does want to fight, he'll probably ask for so much money that, frankly, it may not be profitable for UFC to even have him fight. And given that UFC's biggest business has been built on the backs of McGregor and Ronda Rousey, WME-IMG may be in a ton of trouble once this fight is done. And god help us all if he wins. And as far as details, this will apparently be an all-boxing undercard, and the bout is taking place at 154 pounds, which is a surprising win for the McGregor camp, since one figured that Mayweather would make the Irishman cut as much weight as possible.
*Only a few other things in terms of news and notes. Sean Grande is out as Bellator's lead play-by-play announcer, and the promotion announced they've signed both Mike Goldberg and Mauro Ranallo to take over the announcing duties. Both men will debut on the upcoming show from Madison Square Garden, I assume in a three-man booth with Jimmy Smith, which will be...weird. It's all very unclear how this is going to work, but I'm assuming Goldberg and Smith will be the team for a lot of shows, since Ranallo seemingly splits his time between every fight promotion out there. The MMA Journalists' Association has launched - it's much needed, and hopefully lasts longer than recent attempts to unionize fighters have gone. Sage Northcutt has joined Team Alpha Male, apparently, which, frankly, is as good a choice as any - Alpha Male gets a lot of flack for not being the best when it comes to high-level gameplanning, but if Northcutt's just looking to learn a lot of stuff really quickly, there are worse places to go. And top British featherweight prospect Arnold Allen has found himself in hot water, getting a suspended five-month prison sentence for his involvement in a brawl around Christmas. Long story shirt, apparently Allen's girlfriend got into a fight at a Christmas party, and things escalated rather rapidly, with a drunk Allen basically trying to protect his girlfriend by punching everything that moved, including a few women. Apparently, his lawyer argued that Allen doesn't handle his alcohol well because he abstains from it during his fight camps. This did not work. Anyway, it's unclear what the fallout of all this is - Allen might face some restrictions when it comes to travelling outside Europe, and nothing's been said about the status of his UFC contract. The cynic in me says Allen probably won't garner enough headlines for UFC to bother reacting to this, but by the same token, as talented of a prospect as he is, he's probably expendable enough that UFC could cut him, like they did Michael Graves (who had an outright domestic violence arrest), without much of a fuss.
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BOOKINGS:
*Not a ton announced in UFC proper over the last week, outside of a ton of fights for that Tuesday night Dana White's Contender Series show starting up in July (which is apparently actually a completely separate promotion, so I won't be covering those here). In fact, there's only one fully new fight, and it doesn't even technically have an event yet - after teasing a fight with Al Iaquinta, Mike Perry is instead facing Thiago Alves in a bit of a weird prospect-versus-veteran fight, and it's set for August 19th, at...somewhere. It's fully expected this will be UFC 215 in Seattle, but the intention seems to be a show built around local boy Demetrious Johnson, and, well, things between UFC and the flyweight champ haven't been going great, apparently holding up that announcement. Past that, newcomer Azamat Murzakanov is out of his debut in Oklahoma City, so Joachim Christensen will instead face California's Dominick Reyes, a top light heavyweight prospect. Chad Laprise steps into the open spot against Brian Camozzi at UFC 213, and because we can't have nice things, Doo Ho Choi is injured and out of his UFC 214 bout against Andre Fili.
*Also, Combate in Brazil leaked a bunch of dates for the rest of UFC's 2017 schedule, though it isn't completely finalized, and is probably missing a few things - there figure to be a few more Fight Night cards, plus I don't see the typical December card on Fox. As mentioned above, UFC 215 is still targeted for August 19th in Seattle, though the company's been waiting on that announcement. In between Edmonton and Japan, there's a yet to be announced Fight Night card on September 16th, from somewhere in the United States. October only has two cards at the moment - UFC 217 from Vegas on the 7th, and a Fight Night card from Sao Paulo on the 28th. November sees a card every weekend - November 4th is apparently the date of UFC's return to Madison Square Garden for UFC 218, and then the 11th sees a card from an undetermined American City. From there, UFC goes to Asia for cards on the 19th and the 25th - there's been talk of UFC returning to South Korea, as well as talk of a show in Perth now that Western Australia has lifted its cage-fighting ban, so I'd assume those would be your favorites. The first weekend of December sees back to back shows, as the TUF 26 finale to crown the first women's flyweight champion takes place on Friday the 1st, and the 2nd will apparently be UFC's return to Detroit for UFC 219. And, as previously announced, UFC 220 will take place in Vegas on December 30th.
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UPCOMING UFC SHOWS:
6/25 - UFC Fight Night 112 - Oklahoma City, OK - Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Lee, Tim Boetsch vs. Johny Hendricks, B.J. Penn vs. Dennis Siver
7/7 - TUF 25 Finale - Las Vegas, NV - Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Johnson
7/8 - UFC 213 - Las Vegas, NV - Amanda Nunes ( c ) vs. Valentina Shevchenko, Yoel Romero vs. Robert Whittaker, Donald Cerrone vs. Robbie Lawler
7/16 - UFC Fight Night 113 - Glasgow, Scotland - Gunnar Nelson vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio, Joanne Calderwood vs. Cynthia Calvillo
7/22 - UFC on Fox 25 - Uniondale, NY - Kelvin Gastelum vs. Chris Weidman, Dennis Bermudez vs. Darren Elkins, Thomas Almeida vs. Jimmie Rivera
7/29 - UFC 214 - Anaheim, CA - Daniel Cormier ( c ) vs. Jon Jones, Jimi Manuwa vs. Volkan Oezdemir, Jason Knight vs. Ricardo Lamas
8/5 - UFC Fight Night 114 - Mexico City, Mexico - Brandon Moreno vs. Sergio Pettis, Sam Alvey vs. Rashad Evans
9/2 - UFC Fight Night 115 - Rotterdam, Netherlands - Stefan Struve vs. Alexander Volkov
9/9 - UFC 216 - Edmonton, AB - Henry Cejudo vs. Wilson Reis, Rick Glenn vs. Gavin Tucker
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UFC Fight Night 111 - June 17, 2017 - Singapore Indoor Stadium - Kallang, Singapore
A strange little card, but a fun one for a Fight Pass card taking place out of Singapore. For the last few years, Fight Pass cards have mostly been fairly nothing affairs, with main events like Derrick Lewis versus Shamil Abdurakhimov, or Paddy Holohan against Louis Smolka, but this one actually has a main card with both some starpower and some stakes. Admittedly, the main event isn't really that great of a main event, as Holly Holm is in the weird spot of being one of UFC's most recognizable faces while watching her career spiral downward, but UFC tried here, which is frankly more than I expected. Though, as for the prelim card, the best I can say is that typically one or two of these fights would be on a Fight Pass main card, and thankfully UFC didn't do that this time around.
MAIN CARD (UFC Fight Pass - 8:00 AM ET):
Women's Bantamweight: (#5) Holly Holm vs. (#11) Bethe Correia
Heavyweight: (#8) Andrei Arlovski vs. (#13) Marcin Tybura
Welterweight: (#7) Dong Hyun Kim vs. Colby Covington
Welterweight: (#11) Tarec Saffiedine vs. (#5 Lightweight) Rafael dos Anjos
PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass - 4:45 AM ET):
Lightweight: Takanori Gomi vs. Jon Tuck
Heavyweight: Cyril Asker vs. Walt Harris
Featherweight: Alex Caceres vs. Rolando Dy
Flyweight: Ulka Sasaki vs. Justin Scoggins
Welterweight: Frank Camacho vs. Jingliang Li
Bantamweight: Russell Doane vs. Kwan Ho Kwak
Flyweight: C.J. de Tomas vs. Naoki Inoue
Women's Bantamweight: Ji Yeon Kim vs. Lucie Pudilova
THE RUNDOWN:
Holly Holm (10-3 overall, 3-3 UFC, 1-0 Bellator) vs. Bethe Correia (10-2-1 overall, 4-2-1 UFC):
When Ronda Rousey shockingly suffered her first defeat back in November of 2015, it looked like UFC might actually be fairly fine - obviously Holly Holm wasn't going to be quite the mainstream star that Rousey was, but she got a huge boost from her huge win over UFC's biggest mainstream star, and if she could hang onto the belt until Rousey came back, the rematch would do huge business. Whoops. Pretty much all was going to plan for about four and a half rounds when Holm was defending her belt against Miesha Tate, as save a second round where Tate exposed Holm's lack of a ground game, Holm was pretty much able to keep Tate at a distance standing and prevent her from doing anything. But in the last two minutes of the fight, Tate went for one more desperation takedown and got it, eventually choking Holm unconscious in memorable fashion and setting all of UFC's plans on fire. But hey, things would probably still work out in the long run - Rousey and Tate's rivalry was one of the best in the sport, and now between those two and Holm, you had three marketable rematches where you once only had one. Whoops. July came around, Tate got smashed by Amanda Nunes and would be retired by the end of the year, and Holm pretty much saw her career careen out of control. I could see why UFC thought Valentina Shevchenko would be a solid bounce-back win for Holm, as did most people; Shevchenko comes from a Muay Thai background, but Holm is one of the most decorated female boxers of all-time, so with striking being Holm's strength, she should be able to outbox Shevchenko fairly easily. And that held true for, well, about a round - in fairly short order, Shevchenko started to figure out and counter Holm's strikes, and from there Holm was fairly helpless; she was a fairly rote striker against someone who turned out to be more diverse in Shevchenko, and Shevchenko was even able to get inside and once again expose Holm's lack of a real grappling game. From there, it was onto the disaster that was the women's featherweight title fight against Germaine de Randamie; once again, Holm didn't really seem to have a plan B against a kickboxer that could pretty much match her, and once again, Holm lost a decision. So now losing three straight and not having won a fight since that huge upset over Rousey, UFC and Holm's management are trying again to get her a win, this time against Bethe Correia. Correia is a weird fighter. She's one of the bigger punchlines on the UFC roster, and in a sense, rightfully so; in most of her interviews, she comes off like a delusional loon, she might be the least athletic fighter on the roster, and she pretty much trash-talked her way into a 34-second knockout loss to Rousey. But, in a way, Correia's also kind of good, considering that she was discovered when she was a chubby accountant trying to lose weight who happened to hit a heavy big really hard; she's a solid, technical striker, and while that complete lack of athleticism probably won't get her much higher than number ten or so in the world, she's also basically become the best Bethe Correia she can be and gotten to about number ten in the world. As for the fight, Holm pretty much has to win this, although it's way closer than it has any right to be. Correia actually showed some wrestling in her last fight, a draw against Marion Reneau, and I could see a scenario where Correia has some success doing just that, and basically neutralizing Holm and her complete lack of a ground game. If this was a three-round fight, I might be more confidence in Correia stealing two rounds and getting a decision, but over the course of five, Holm's speed, athleticism, and pace should see her be able to pick Correia apart standing more often than not. Again, I think this could be closer than anyone thinks it should be, but my pick is Holm by decision to finally pick up another win.
Andrei Arlovski (25-14 [1] overall, 14-8 UFC, 0-3 Strikeforce) vs. Marcin Tybura (15-2 overall, 2-1 UFC):
Well, things sure turned around quickly for Andrei Arlovski, and it's not the first time anyone has said that. It was about a decade ago that Arlovski first left the UFC; he was still one of the top heavyweights in the world, but a boring loss in a title fight against Tim Sylvia and a horrible fight against Fabricio Werdum pretty much killed interest in him, so when his contract was up, UFC decided to let him go after the absurd money that Affliction was offering at the time. At first, Arlovski had some success, knocking out Ben Rothwell and Roy Nelson, but a quick loss to Fedor Emilianenko started a run where Arlovski's career just fell apart - Affliction folded, and Arlovski signed with Strikeforce only to lose three straight, most notably getting knocked out in just 22 seconds by Brett Rogers. So, cut from Strikeforce, and pretty much written off as a shopworn vet whose chin had cracked for good, Arlovski pretty much became a MMA vagabond, taking fights all over the world, wherever they were offered, including a few bouts in World Series of Fighting. And, well, Arlovski won a lot of fights, with his only loss coming via decision to Anthony Johnson - and even that showed Arlovski could hang with a power puncher like Johnson without getting knocked out. Still, it was a bit surprising when UFC re-signed Arlovski in 2014, and even more surprising when Arlovski reeled off four straight wins - including one of the better fights on 2015 in a brawl against Travis Browne - to suddenly become a title contender. After that fight, there was some talk of giving Arlovski a shot before his luck ran out, but that never came to pass - instead, he got an unwatchable decision win over Frank Mir, and then, well, that luck ran out pretty quickly. Stipe Miocic ran through Arlovski in just 54 seconds to earn a title shot at the beginning of 2016, and that started a similar run to what we saw in Strikeforce - a knockout loss to Alistair Overeem, a decent showing but eventual submission loss at the hands of Josh Barnett, and most recently, getting annihilated by rising prospect Francis Ngannou in just 92 seconds this January. So, at 38, Andrei Arlovski tries to resurrect his career once again, and hopes that starts against Poland's Marcin Tybura. Tybura's a pretty interesting fighter, as he established himself as one of the best heavyweights in Europe when UFC signed him, though there were some questions about how his game would translate to the UFC level. And indeed, he struggled in his UFC debut against Tim Johnson; at about 250 pounds, Tybura is undersized for a UFC heavyweight - which does remind me of the old adage about 6'6" basketball players going into the only job where they'd be undersized - and on a roster where UFC signs a lot of guys who cut down to the 265 weight limit, he had trouble getting any of his grappling going against Johnson. But Tybura's looked good since - he's improved his striking greatly, and while he got smothered a bit by Brazilian wrestler Luis Henrique in his last fight, Tybura got the better of things on the feet and was able to regain control late when Henrique started to tire. I'm not sure if he's a future contender, but at the very least Tybura is one of UFC's better heavyweight signings in the last few years, and should remain a divisional stalwart as guys start to age out. As far as the fight, it's a difficult one to call, since neither guy can really take advantage of the other's main weakness; if Tybura was more of a one-hitter quitter, I could easily see him knock out Arlovski, while Arlovski really works more in space than doing the type of bullying that can sometimes stifle Tybura. So this should be a close decision, and waffling back and forth on the pick, I'll take Tybura - while I don't think Arlovski is done or anything, Tybura's game does seem to be clicking on all cylinders, and I think he can be solid enough on the feet while having the advantage if the two ever choose to grapple.
Dong Hyun Kim (22-3-1 [1] overall, 13-3 [1] UFC) vs. Colby Covington (11-1 overall, 6-1 UFC):
A really interesting fight here, as Colby Covington finally gets a shot at a high-level opponent after some odd matchmaking in his UFC career thus far. Covington came into UFC fairly raw back in 2014, but with a bunch of hype - a former junior college wrestling teammate of Jon Jones, Covington bounced around a bit thanks to some, ahem, off-the-court issues, but eventually had a decorated wrestling career at Oregon State. And UFC brought him along rather slowly at first, not even really giving him anyone who would test him, allowing him to run through international TUF washouts like Anying Wang and Wagner Silva. But after a win over Mike Pyle and a quick loss to fellow prospect Warlley Alves where Covington pretty much dove right into a guillotine, UFC weirdly decided to start all over with Covington. The start of 2016 saw UFC just feed debuting guys Jonathan Meunier and Max Griffin to Covington, which pretty much accomplished nothing; Covington was just able to rely on his wrestling and dominate before finishing off each guy late. And even when UFC finally threw Covington a decent opponent, in tough prospect-killer Bryan Barberena, it was still pretty much the same story - Covington flashed a bit more striking, but just more or less wrestled his way to a victory. So, finally, we should be able to learn something about Covington, since I don't think he can just outright out-wrestle longtime welterweight contender Dong Hyun Kim. Kim was the first South Korean fighter or any real prominence in the UFC, which makes it kind of amusing in retrospect how much he fought against type; most Korean fighters are pretty much all-offense, no-defense, but Kim spent years as pretty much a boring judoka, neutralizing most of his opponents and just hanging around the fringes of the top ten. But, amusingly, Kim's November 2013 fight against Erick Silva saw him suddenly decide to reverse course and just start going bananas, and even weirder, it actually kind of worked. Kim knocked out Silva with a crazy overhand, and then uncorked what seems to be the consensus best knockout of 2014, putting away John Hathaway with a beautiful spinning elbow that sent the Brit crumbling to the mat. But then Kim was matched against Tyron Woodley, and flew a little too close to the sun - he went for that same spinning elbow, whiffed badly, and at that point was a sitting duck to get annihilated by Woodley in just 61 seconds. And since then, it's been sort of a weird run, not helped by a bunch of injuries to either Kim or his opponent that have made his appearances fairly rare; Kim looked like his more aggressive, inconsistent self in a win over Josh Burkman, and then just ran through overmatched injury replacement Dominic Waters, but his last fight against Tarec Saffiedine saw Kim kind of retreat back to his more boring, control-heavy style, even if it only got him a split decision this time around. It's a bit of a hard fight to call, if only because Covington's entire game is basically going to be trying to put Kim on his back, and the Korean hasn't faced anyone who's tried to do that since...Demian Maia in 2012? So there's a chance that for all his judo skill, Covington can still get Kim to the ground, and from there it's unclear exactly what Kim can do from the bottom. But, more likely, Kim can either neutralize that or, as the much bigger fighter, even take control of things in the grappling realm himself - and even it remains standing, as wild as Kim's striking can be, I still trust it more than Covington's completely unproven, if seemingly improving, offerings on the feet. It's an interesting test for both guys, even if I'm very unsure as to how entertaining it'll be, and I'll take Kim by a fairly clear decision.
Tarec Saffiedine (16-6 overall, 2-3 UFC, 6-1 Strikeforce) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (25-9 overall, 14-7 UFC):
It's funny to think that, at this time last year, Rafael dos Anjos was making his case as one of the most dominant lightweights in the history of the division, but now, he's not even a lightweight anymore. Dos Anjos's run came completely out of nowhere, as for the first few years of his UFC career, he was pretty much a mid-tier submission artist who'd alternate wins and losses. But under coach Rafael Cordeiro, his striking suddenly clicked, and dos Anjos started a run where he won ten out of eleven fights (Khabib Nurmagomedov is really good), culminating in a dominant five-round win over lightweight champ Anthony Pettis and a 66-second title defense over Donald Cerrone. From there, dos Anjos was slated to be the unlikely B-side to a huge Conor McGregor fight, as after dispatching of Jose Aldo, McGregor set his eyes on dos Anjos's lightweight title. But then dos Anjos broke his foot, Nate Diaz stepped in to spark one of the best rivalries in the history of the sport, and the lightweight title was temporarily an afterthought when it came to McGregor. But again, at this time last year, it looked like dos Anjos would get his big money fight soon enough; his next challenger, Eddie Alvarez, seemed to be getting more of a lifetime achievement title shot than anything else, and McGregor would eventually come calling for that lightweight belt again. Dos Anjos did in fact look well on his way to beating Alvarez in the first few minutes of their fight, but then Alvarez landed a perfect punch to stun dos Anjos and send things down the path of a first-round finish; and indeed, shortly thereafter it was Alvarez that was the unlikely headliner opposite McGregor at Madison Square Garden. After another loss to Tony Ferguson in a really close fight between two top contenders, dos Anjos surprisingly announced a move up to welterweight; surprisingly if only because dos Anjos still figured to have success at 155, and he wasn't really thought of as a particularly giant lightweight or anyone who had trouble cutting weight. So, seven months later, dos Anjos makes his welterweight debut against Tarec Saffiedine, who's badly in need of a win. Saffiedine was a nice story during the dying days of Strikeforce; the Belgian was a fighter that the promotion slowly developed, working his way up the card before eventually beating Nate Marquardt for their welterweight title in the last-ever Strikeforce fight. But Saffiedine has struggled to find a foothold since he came over into the UFC; injuries limited him to only two fights in his first three years with the promotion, and his technical kickboxing game has proven fairly low-ceiling, as guys like Rick Story and Dong Hyun Kim have been able to control him rather handily. And honestly, I see this matchmaking as UFC losing a bit of faith in Saffiedine, since coming off two straight losses, I'm surprised they'd give him a tough next fight if they wanted to keep him strong as a contender. On paper, this seems like a fairly clear dos Anjos win; dos Anjos and Saffiedine are roughly the same size, and the style matchup greatly favors the former lightweight champ, as he should be able to pressure and control Saffiedine fairly easily and just implement whatever offense he wants. And there's also an extremely low chance of something like the dos Anjos/Alvarez fight, since I doubt Saffiedine can hit a perfect knockout punch; Saffiedine only has one career knockout, and has always been a guy content to ride out a technical decision rather than press for any sort of finish. So my pick is dos Anjos by a fairly one-sided decision, with the possibility of a late stoppage.
Takanori Gomi (35-12 [1] overall, 4-7 UFC, 13-1 [1] PRIDE) vs. Jon Tuck (9-4 overall, 3-4 UFC):
So it's come to this. About a decade ago, Takanori Gomi was one of the consensus best lightweights in the world, and definitely the best in Japan; with his athleticism and a wild style, Gomi pretty much blew through the competition in exciting fashion. After a few losses, Gomi signed with UFC in 2010, and was considered to be just past his prime; and indeed, while he did decently enough for the first few years, he was mostly just an action mid-card fighter, a far cry from his glory days. But after a fun decision win over Isaac Vallie-Flagg in April of 2014, the wheels have completely fallen off for Gomi, who's been fairly notorious for not really taken care of his body - the athleticism has slipped, and so has Gomi's chin, which combined with his offensively wild, defensively open style, has resulted in a string of first-round losses, as he's dropped bouts to Myles Jury, Joe Lauzon, and Jim Miller in a combined six and a half minutes. So, we're at the point that UFC needs to go pretty far down the ladder to see if Gomi has anything left, and so he faces Guam's Jon Tuck, who's been on his way to sliding out of the UFC himself. Tuck had a decent showing on TUF 15 while losing to Al Iaquinta to get into the house, but he was brought in shortly thereafter as an obvious setup guy for a card in Macau, as he was put against Chinese fighter Tiequan Zhang. That did not work, since Tiequan Zhang is awful, and Tuck wound up winning the decision. From there, he's kind of hung around as a frustrating talent; he's athletic and dynamic enough to get some wins over roster fodder, but his overall game is just sort of a mess and not enough to beat anyone decent. His last two fights showed this - he faced a fight last May against Josh Emmett where he just kept getting beaten to the punch and didn't really pull the trigger, and then turned around and lost a fight to Damien Brown in the exact opposite fashion, as he roared out to a big first round and then gassed himself into losing the last two. Still, as broken as Tuck's game is, he still has those moments of dynamism, and Gomi looks completely shot, so this'll probably be a quick Tuck victory - I say the Guamanian stuns Gomi on the feet, then gets a submission in the first round.
Cyril Asker (8-2 overall, 1-1 UFC) vs. Walt Harris (9-5 overall, 2-4 UFC):
This should be a fun lower-level heavyweight bout. It remains to be seen if Walt Harris will ever put it together, but if he does, watch out - the former basketball player for Jacksonville State is a physical specimen and, for now at age 34, a top-shelf athlete, but for a while, that didn't really amount to much; Harris was a quick two-and-out in the UFC the first time around, and after picking up a regional win, got re-signed as a late replacement only to lose to Soa Palelei. And honestly, even Harris's 2016 wasn't super-amazing; he did pick up a win over Cody East, but that was the type of come-from-behind knockout that happens at heavyweight, and a loss to Shamil Abdurakhimov was fairly flat. But, this January, Harris did put together the best performance of his career against Chase Sherman, showing off some impressive combinations and finally pulling the trigger, so maybe there's hope just yet. And frankly, France's Cyril Asker probably won't be much of a challenge. Given that MMA is banned in France, Asker instead plied his trade in South Africa and did well there, but as expected, his wrestling hasn't really translated up a level, as Asker's just kind of overmatched as an athlete. And while Asker did rebound from a rough UFC debut with a ground-and-pound win over Dmitrii Smoliakov, Smoliakov also may be the worst of UFC's recent heavyweight signings. I do like Asker, just personally, since he does seem like a nice guy win some charisma, but I don't really like his chances to hang around in the UFC because there's going to be a lot of fights like these, where he probably can't get things to the ground and doesn't have much firepower on the feet. So I'm taking Harris by a fairly easy first-round knockout.
Alex Caceres (12-10 [1] overall, 7-8 [1] UFC) vs. Rolando Dy (8-4 [1] overall):
Well, this is a fight that's just sort of...happening now. Initially, this was supposed to be the debut of Chinese fighter Guan Wang - when the card from Singapore was first announced, Dana White said that it would feature their next Chinese star, and it came out a few weeks later that it was Wang, a veteran featherweight with a bunch of knockouts. In fairly short order, Wang was tied to a fight with Alex Caceres on this card, but when everything was finalized, Caceres was instead facing Filipino newcomer Rolando Dy without any explanation. So...this is just a fight, basically. Caceres is a frustrating talent - it was a bit surprising when UFC picked him up, but they must have liked his "Bruce Leeroy" persona on his season of TUF; but after a rocky start, Caceres paid off UFC's faith in him and went on a five-fight unbeaten streak, consisting of four lower-tier opponents and then a big submission win over Sergio Pettis. But as with a lot of fighters, a big win basically led Caceres being thrown into fights over his head, so that gave way to a three-fight losing streak. 2016 saw Caceres move up to featherweight, and results have been mixed - in general, he's still the same sort of mid-level fighter he's always been, but it's almost impressive how inconsistent Caceres is even in the same fight; his win at UFC 199 over Cole Miller was probably a career-best performance, but even that saw Caceres sort of careen out of control and lose a one-sided third round. As for Dy, I'm actually a bit impressed, since I was dreading watching tape of him - his record isn't exactly stellar, plus the Filipino scene often cranks out fighters that are more fun than good. But I saw some solid striking and power, plus some grappling that, while not great, was at least better than some of his countrymen. I'm still not predicting a ton of UFC success for Dy, but he could be a guy who sticks around picking off some of the other lower-level fighters on the fringes of the roster. But as for this fight, Caceres has enough talent and skill to win this fairly easily, though given how inconsistent he is, it'll almost surely wind up being a fight that's closer than it needs to be. Still, my pick is Caceres by clear decision.
Ulka Sasaki (19-4-2 overall, 2-3 UFC) vs. Justin Scoggins (11-3 overall, 4-3 UFC):
The clear highlight of this prelim card, this should be a fun scrap between two flyweight prospects looking for a win. Justin Scoggins is an interesting one - the South Carolina native is a former training partner of Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson, and looked like a future champion after two impressive wins upon his UFC debut. So, of course, UFC rushed him into fights with higher-level opponents, which was a mixed bag; Scoggins acquitted himself well, as he probably should've gotten the split decision nod against Dustin Ortiz, and he was beating John Moraga until he got himself tapped out, but at the end of the day it was two unnecessary losses. From there, Scoggins was sort of forgotten - he got a win over Josh Sampo to stay afloat, and then struggled with injuries, but then he used his striking game to pretty much entirely shut down rising contender Ray Borg, and suddenly Scoggins was a top prospect at flyweight once again. He was slated to face Ian McCall last summer, but, of course, Scoggins suddenly found himself unable to make flyweight, and a one-off bout at bantamweight turned out to be what's becoming a classic Scoggins loss - he was winning rather handily, but tripped while throwing a kick and got immediately tapped out by Pedro Munhoz. So Scoggins attempts to return to 125, and does so against Japanese prospect Ulka Sasaki. Sasaki was supposed to be help lead the next wave of Japanese prospects, but after two bad losses, his UFC career seemed basically dead on arrival. But a cut to flyweight turned things around; Sasaki is gigantic for the division at 5'11", and was able to beat Willie Gates and have a super-game showing against former title challenger Wilson Reis this past February. But this really does seem like a Scoggins win - admittedly, Scoggins is at his best when he's able to use his karate and keep opponents at a distance, and Sasaki's massive wingspan may make that a bit difficult, but Sasaki's size means he's always hittable on the feet, and Scoggins should be able to take full advantage of that. Though, that said, Sasaki is a dangerous grappler, so this figures to be one of those fights where Scoggins should dominate the balance, but is basically able to make either a dumb decision or a dumb mistake at any moment and find himself suddenly getting tapped out. But still, I expect that Scoggins decision win, and this should be a really fun fight.
Frank Camacho (20-4 overall) vs. Jingliang Li (12-4 overall, 4-2 UFC):
UFC tried unsuccessfully to break into China back in 2014 - and, given that they're signing some more Chinese talent, they might be going for it again - but all they really have to show for it is Jingliang Li, who, frankly, is still way better than anyone could've expected. Li's nickname is "The Leech", and when he came into UFC, that was pretty much fair, as he was just sort of a smothering wrestler, but as time has gone on and Li's been able to diversify his training, he's actually become a fairly fun mid-tier brawler. Add in some charisma that transcends the language barrier, and Li's an easy guy to like; plus there's some novelty to him being the one good Chinese fighter. Li was initially supposed to face Canadian prospect Jonathan Meunier, but with Meunier heart, Li instead faces UFC newcomer Frank Camacho, who, best I can tell, is UFC's first fighter out of the Northern Mariana Islands, an American commonwealth near Guam. Camacho was briefly on UFC's radar in 2012, as he lost a fight to get into the TUF house against Neil Magny, and since then he's been sort of a regional journeyman for cards out on the Pacific Rim. But as far as journeymen go, Camacho's a good addition to the roster; in his wins, he absolutely smokes opponents, and in general he's sort of a low-level brawler that throws a ton of heat and, given the level, has had a bunch of success. Between the recent track record of both Li and Camacho, this figures to be a ridiculous brawl, and while Li isn't such a world-beater that he can't lose here, he is the much better fighter and should be able to score a first-round knockout.
Russell Doane (14-7 overall, 2-4 UFC) vs. Kwan Ho Kwak (9-1 overall, 0-1 UFC):
A really fun fight here and, along with Sasaki/Scoggins, a clear highlight of the undercard, though it does suck a bit that the loser will likely be cut. And if that loser is Russell Doane, he'll almost surely be cut, as the Hawaiian gets the rare last shot at a win after losing four straight fights. 2014 saw Doane debut and go through the typical B-level prospect path at bantamweight, winning two fights and then losing to perennial division gatekeeper Iuri Alcantara. And then Doane followed that up with an immensely frustrating loss - facing powerful wrestler Jerrod Sanders, Doane kept trying to implement his scrambling submission game, only to keep getting reversed and shut down by Sanders. Doane then took about a year off thanks to injuries, and in that time, improved greatly, showing some much more fluid striking in the vein of his teammate, Max Holloway; but unfortunately, that coincided with a step up in competition that still prevented Doane from having much success. Doane was pretty much used as a bounce-back fight for top prospect Pedro Munhoz, and then accepted a late-notice fight a weight class up at 145 to take on, and lose in fairly one-sided fashion, to uber-prospect Mirsad Bektic. But taking that Bektic fight probably earned Doane this fifth shot at a win, and it comes against South Korea's Kwan Ho Kwak. Kwak was probably the top bantamweight free agent in Asia when UFC picked him up last year, and it's easy to see why he's a top prospect, as Kwak is a ridiculous athlete with a penchant for throwing flashy kicks. But he has a ton of trouble against straight ahead wrestlers - a lot of Kwak's fights that I've watched see him look awesome when his opponent is forced to stand with them, and then make you wonder how he even got into the UFC when he's trying to fight from the bottom. In some regional title fights, the game still held together since Kwak appears to have excellent cardio, leaving his opponents too exhausted to take him down by the later rounds, but his UFC debut was pretty much the worst possible matchup, as fellow newcomer and excellent grappler Brett Johns just pretty much took Kwak down and schooled on him. I go back and forth on this fight - for all his improved striking, and for how much Doane has been too eager to grapple in the past, he actually should rely on that old gameplan here, as if he can get Kwak to the mat, he should be able to win rounds fairly easily. But, of course, the question is if he can get him there, since Kwak is such a ridiculous athlete and can often use that athleticism, rather than any sort of technique, to escape when his opponent tries to shoot. I have the feeling this is going to be a close decision either way, but I'll go with a bit of an upset and say Doane ekes out a decision, though I hope Kwak can still stick on the roster if that's the case.
C.J. de Tomas (8-0 overall) vs. Naoki Inoue (10-0 overall):
Well, UFC continues to have no idea what the hell they're doing with the flyweight division, or if they even want to have one, but at least they signed two pretty good prospects to face each other here. Japan's Naoki Inoue figured to be the youngest fighter on the roster when he debuted, but with Chan Mi Jeon getting signed as a late replacement in the interim, he'll have to settle for second, as he's racked up a 10-0 record before his 20th birthday. (Which will happen when you start your career before you even turn 17.) Tape on Inoue is rather scarce, but based off what's there, he's kind of the opposite of his sister, strawweight prodigy Mizuki Inoue - Naoki's striking is sort of a wild work in progress, but as soon as things go to the mat, he's a ridiculously slick submission artist given his experience, as his long frame allows him to successfully try all sorts of aggressive stuff. He faces top Filipino prospect Carls John de Tomas, who at 20 years old, is the old man of this matchup. I like de Tomas as a prospect - like a lot of Filipino fighters, he has a solid striking base that should lend itself well to having action fights, and for the level of competition, he has a pretty effective wrestling game to fall back on if he ever finds himself in trouble. Still, I think the first time that de Tomas tries one of those takedowns, he's going to find himself getting tapped out, and I think he's going to try a takedown fairly early - so my pick is Inoue by first-round submission. Still, both guys are interesting prospects, though given that UFC's flyweight division is sort of a shark tank without many easy fights, I do worry about the ability of both guys to stick on the roster long enough to develop.
Ji Yeon Kim (6-0-2 overall) vs. Lucie Pudilova (6-2 overall, 0-1 UFC):
A solid enough women's bantamweight fight here, as it's always good to see two prospects in a thin division. Czechia's Lucie Pudilova acquitted herself well in her UFC debut - a late injury replacement, Pudilova was tabbed for a rematch of a regional fight against Lina Lansberg. And while the first fight saw Lansberg mostly just pin the 5'11" Pudilova against the cage, Pudilova showed off the improvements she made in the ensuing sixteen months when it was time for the rematch; she still lost the fight, but there were large swaths where she was just beating the piss out of Lansberg's face, bloodying her up while carrying herself with a ton of swagger. Pudilova looks to build off that and get her first UFC win against South Korean newcomer Ji Yeon Kim, who's a solid prospect in her own right. Kim was actually apparently UFC's first option to face Holly Holm before Holm's management turned it down, I guess figuring an easy win over someone with no name value wasn't something they were interested in. Kim pretty much fits in the Korean archetype of charging forward with little regard for defense, but she does so in the name of being a fairly dogged wrestler, looking to take her opponent down and work for all sorts of stuff. It's a pretty binary fight - if Kim can bull Pudilova to the ground and work from there, she should be able to roll, but if Pudilova can keep it standing, I see this as Kim just charging forward into all manner of strikes. I tend to lean towards Kim not being a strong enough athlete to dictate this fight, so I'll take Pudilova by decision, though this could wind up being a really fun way to start the card.
