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UFC on FOX 23: Saturday, Jan 28th

Main card starts 8PM ET

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Julianna Peña

Donald Cerrone vs. Jorge Masvidal

Andrei Arlovski vs. Francis Ngannou

Alex Caceres vs. Jason Knight

#ufconfox #ufc #fight card #valentina shevchenko #julianna pena #donald cerrone #jorge masvidal #andrei arlovski #francis ngannou #alex caceres #jason knight #mma #mma related #ufconfox23

Fights to Make: UFC Denver

Valentina Shevchenko (beat Julianna Pena) vs. Amanda Nunes: She probably already was the top contender, but Shevchenko left no doubt, slipping on a sweet armbar against Pena and earning a fairly surprising second-round submission. Shevchenko is easily the biggest threat to Nunes’s title at the moment, given that she probably would’ve won their first contest if it was a five-round fight, and UFC’s pretty much already set this up, bringing Nunes into the cage to have a verbal sparring match with Shevchenko after her win.

Jorge Masvidal (beat Donald Cerrone) vs. Robbie Lawler: Well, that pretty much went perfectly for Masvidal - he called out Cerrone after his win last month, knowing that Cerrone’s pretty much available to fight whenever, got the fight, and then finished the hard part, winning the fight in surprisingly quick fashion and earning a second-round knockout. (After pretty much earning a first-round knockout that was called off due to Herb Dean’s indecision.) I’m still not entirely sold on Masvidal as contender, despite his newfound aggression, but he’s at least put himself in that mix - Masvidal/Lawler would be a banger that would give Masvidal a chance at his biggest win yet, as well as serve as a solid bounce-back fight for the former welterweight champ to get a win.

Donald Cerrone (lost to Jorge Masvidal) vs. Jake Ellenberger: Well, that’s the downside to taking as many fights as Cerrone does - eventually you’ll lose one of them, and this was particularly damaging, given that Cerrone seemed close to a title shot and this loss came in his hometown of Denver. The real answer here is Cerrone against whoever the next available guy is, since I assume Cerrone will be back in the cage by March, but for the purposes of this, let’s go with Ellenberger, who still has a name and a bit of relevance in the division, although this is pretty much set to be a bounce-back Cerrone win over a diminished vet.

Francis Ngannou (beat Andrei Arlovski) vs. Ben Rothwell: So, yeah - Arlovski was, if nothing else, Ngannou’s quickest and most skilled opponent yet, and the Cameroonian continued to look like a natural, not really having much of a problem feeling Arlovski out and then getting a quick, brutal knockout. Ngannou’s only a few years into this, so one assumes he’ll hit a ceiling at some point, but in a division as thin as heavyweight, there’s honestly no point in Ngannou continuing to prove himself against anyone but the top seven or eight fighters in the division. So let’s go with Rothwell, who presents a bit more of a well-rounded challenge for Ngannou, in a fight that would probably put the winner one win away from a title fight.

Julianna Pena (lost to Valentina Shevchenko) vs. Sara McMann/Liz Carmouche (Feb. 19) loser: Pena actually looked pretty good in the fight before getting tapped out by Shevchenko, which probably made it all the more disheartening - she’s just ridiculously aggressive in getting things into the clinch and did a pretty decent job of keeping Shevchenko under control before the finish. If Ronda Rousey got her shit together on fairly short notice, Pena would be a perfect opponent given that she pretty much wants to take the fight where Ronda also wants it, but since a Rousey fight is probably a ways off (if she ever comes back), let’s go with the loser of McMann/Carmouche in Halifax in what should be a decent battle of grinders.

Raphael Assuncao (beat Aljamain Sterling) vs. John Lineker: It wasn’t pretty, but a win’s a win, as Assuncao won a fairly blah split decision over fellow fringe contender Sterling in a fight that easily could’ve gone the either way. Assuncao’s one of those guys that just racks up wins in either unmemorable or outright boring fashion, so he needs all the wins he can get, but it’s not like he has any momentum towards a title shot, particularly now that T.J. Dillashaw is no longer champ, since Assuncao at least had the angle of beating Dillashaw previously when that was the case. So let’s just put Assuncao against another fringe contender, and let’s go with Lineker, who’s coming off a loss to Dillashaw himself - it’d be an interesting matchup of Assuncao’s counter-striking against Lineker’s berserker-like aggression.

Andrei Arlovski (lost to Francis Ngannou) vs. Roy Nelson: Man, things evened out badly for Arlovski, as an unlikely run upon his UFC return made him a title contender, but now everything has veered in the other direction, with four straight stoppage losses. Arlovski’s still a solid top-ten or so gatekeeper, but he also needs a win - let’s put him against fellow fading vet Nelson in a fight either guy could easily win, particularly since Arlovski is one of only two men to have knocked Nelson out and “Big Country” might just be the slowest guy in the division.

Jason Knight (beat Alex Caceres) vs. Mirsad Bektic/Darren Elkins (Mar. 4) winner: Knight is suddenly a thing in the featherweight division, as he made this win over Caceres look way easier than anyone expected, and then gave a hell of a memorable post-fight interview, praying to his late father before calling out Doo Ho Choi. I will have no complaints if they do that fight, but I’ll go in another direction to see if Knight can work his way up the ladder, putting him against the winner of the Bektic/Elkins fight at 209. Elkins is pretty much the featherweight gatekeeper extraordinaire as a dogged wrestler, while Bektic is a wrestle-boxing powerhouse considered one of the best prospects in MMA - either fight would make for a firecracker of a bout.

Aljamain Sterling (lost to Raphael Assuncao) vs. Iuri Alcantara/Luke Sanders (Mar. 4) winner: This was a rough one for Sterling, as it makes for his second straight split decision loss, and has pretty much taken him out of the bantamweight title picture for the time being. And he may not get another chance to get back in it, as he’s always seemingly had a rough relationship with UFC management, holding out for a bigger contract when he came up as a blue-chip prospect. Sterling has some kinks to work out - this performance was just frustrating, as he relied on his fairly inefficient kicking game for the first two rounds and didn’t really get anywhere, before mixing in his boxing and turning it on late, which makes one wonder why he didn’t do that just to begin with. Anyway, Sterling is running the risk of getting left behind in a suddenly stacked bantamweight division, so he badly needs a rebound win - let’s go with the winner of the upcoming fight between division stalwart Alcantara and rising prospect Sanders coming up at UFC 209.

Sam Alvey (beat Nate Marquardt) vs. Krzysztof Jotko: Sam Alvey did Sam Alvey things, turning his bout with Marquardt into a weird counter-striking battle, and then calling out a guy who is already booked, in this case Jack Marshman. So instead let’s go with Jotko - it may be a bit of a step back for the Pole, who’s quickly rising up the ranks after a win over Thales Leites, but Alvey presents his own unique challenge and it should still make for a weird, fun fight.

Alex Caceres (lost to Jason Knight) vs. Godofredo Pepey: Caceres remains inconsistent as ever, as he had his moments against Knight, but still wound up getting tapped out within two rounds. There’s really nothing left to do with Caceres except put him in good action fights, of which there’s a bunch of possibilities, so let’s pit him against the weird, all-out offense style of Brazilian grappler Pepey.

Nate Marquardt (lost to Sam Alvey) vs. Chris Camozzi: Marquardt got beaten pretty bad by Alvey, but this wasn’t as one-sided as some of Marquardt’s recent defeats, and this pretty much let Marquardt hold serve as a diminished, but still dangerous, middle-of-the-road veteran at this point. Let’s put him against Camozzi, to determine the true mediocre middleweight king of Colorado, at least at the moment.

Jordan Johnson (beat Henrique da Silva) vs. Josh Stansbury: Johnson proved his status as a blue-chip prospect in his UFC debut, showing off his strong wrestling game and pretty much dominating da Silva in fairly one-sided fashion. But Johnson has a high ceiling, he’s still fairly raw, so I’d just feed him low-to-mid-level fighters to gain experience until he turns into someone who can start making a bit of a run. Let’s do Stansbury next - he was Johnson’s initial opponent here before pulling out due to injury, and Johnson’s already called him out, so yeah, I’m on board.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (beat Jeremy Kimball) vs. Tyson Pedro/Paul Craig (Mar. 4) winner: De Lima is what he is, a fast-paced, all-offense monster of a fighter who either gets the finish or gets finished within a round, and that trend continued here with a quick knockout of newcomer Kimball. Pedro and Craig are squaring off in a battle of light heavyweight prospects at UFC 209, and de Lima would be a solid next step for the winner to keep making their way up the ladder.

Eric Spicely (beat Alessio Di Chirico) vs. Anthony Smith: That went about as well as possible for Spicely, as the dogged grappler got a quick triangle submission, and then gave a solid post-fight interview where he called out Australian favorite Dan Kelly. Kelly’s a solid idea, but we can also go with Smith, in what could also make for a pretty fun striker-versus-grappler battle.

Jingliang Li (beat Bobby Nash) vs. Alex Morono/Niko Price (Feb. 4) winner: I still find joy in the fact that Li’s pretty good, as I enjoy MMA as an international sport and like that UFC managed to somehow find at least one decent Chinese fighter. And Li’s pretty fun as hell too - his win over Nash was the best fight on the card, as both guys put the other in a ton of danger in a back and forth fight before Li finally put Nash’s lights out. Let’s keep the streak of brawls going - Morono and Price square off next week in a fight between two big, athletic guys, and either would make for a fun bout against “The Leech.”

Henrique da Silva (lost to Jordan Johnson) vs. Saparbek Safarov: Da Silva had some early success in his first two UFC fights, but he’s now lost two just as quickly, as he seems fairly helpless against high-level wrestlers and grapplers. So let’s just do a fun trash brawl between guys now strictly on the cut line, as Safarov is just a junky bomb-thrower, and da Silva’s aggressive as hell himself, so a fight between the two should just be ridiculously sloppy fun.

Alexandre Pantoja (beat Eric Shelton) vs. Ryan Benoit: Pantoja got the nod in a super-fun fight over fellow TUF 24 alum Shelton, and honestly, both guys deserve to be ranked in the flyweight division. Pantoja’s well-rounded enough that he could move to contender status pretty quickly, and let’s start with him against Benoit, who has a weird game for the division, but acts as a pretty solid gatekeeper.

Jason Gonzalez (beat J.C. Cottrell) vs. Joaquim Silva: It wasn’t the best performance, as Gonzalez mostly got outwrestled for four minutes, but Cottrell dove into a choke and Gonzalez showed that he’s a dangerous finisher in pretty much every aspect. I don’t see much upside for Gonzalez past a low-level action fighter, but him against Silva, a rising prospect with knockout power, would be a fun fight where Silva is likely to get another fun win.

Bobby Nash (lost to Jingliang Li) vs. Danny Roberts: Nash got brutally knocked out by Li, as he continued his pattern from smaller promotions of being able to come back from being rocked until he got nailed one time too many, but Nash also proved himself to be an exciting action fighter, which is sometimes more than half the battle. Roberts is in a similar boat, coming off a loss to Mike Perry, so that’d make for a fun undercard bout.

Jeremy Kimball (lost to Marcos Rogerio de Lima) vs. Ion Cutelaba: Kimball didn’t really get the chance to show a ton before slipping and getting knocked the hell out against “Pezao” de Lima, but there’s a number of low-level banger light heavyweights that would make for a fun fight against the Coloradan. Let’s go with Moldova’s Cutelaba from that group.

Alessio Di Chirico (lost to Eric Spicely) vs. Gerald Meerschaert/Ryan Janes (Feb. 19) loser: This was a bit of a bad loss for Di Chirico - not so much that he lost, but that he got submitted so easily, which suggests the Italian may be even rawer than conventional wisdom dictated. So it’s just a matter of feeding Di Chirico low-level opponents, and the loser of the upcoming Meerschaert/Janes fight in Halifax will likely also be on the cut line.

Eric Shelton (lost to Alexandre Pantoja) vs. Fredy Serrano: I hope Shelton gets another UFC fight - conventional wisdom dictates that guys who lose their post-TUF fights are cut, but the whole mission of the season Shelton came off of seemed to be to load up a thinning flyweight division, and Shelton is definitely a high-ceiling talent. If he gets another bout, let’s give him a bit of a rebound win over Serrano, a Colombian wrestler who’s seemingly turned out to be kind of a non-prospect.

J.C. Cottrell (lost to Jason Gonzalez) vs. Brendan O’Reilly: I assume Cottrell’s done with the UFC after this loss - he showed little in his fight against Michel Prazeres, and just pretty much charged into a choke against Gonzalez after some early success. Australia’s O’Reilly is almost surely going to be cut himself, so if either somehow gets another UFC fight, let’s just put them against each other.

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