Many handicappers enjoy full fields on grass due to the typically more varied betting opportunities which produce larger pools. I am no different and turf maiden special weights are a particular favorite of mine but when it comes to the marathon grass races being run at Belmont Park during its Belmont Stakes Festival Week I feel like I have no advantage because, for starters, I don’t even feel like I know how to properly read PPs for these extended distances much less dope out any winners.
The foreignness of it all makes those particular stakes races ones I will watch but most likely not bet seriously. Instead I’m going to focus on the Pick 5 on Friday before diving head-first into Saturday’s “stakestraveganza”.
Before handicapping Race 1 on Friday, I was intrigued by a push Joel Rosario’s agent gave on Steve Byk’s radio show about the Centennial Farm runner he rides #2 PRESERVATIONIST. After a deeper glance at some of the other runners in this race, Preservationist better have his running shoes on because there are some other colts in here with equally interesting credentials and likewise boast strong pedigrees and strategic connections.
My thoughts on the field are as follows:
#1 ONE MORE ROUND: Will take plenty of money based on his placing in the G3 Lexington but I have a personal policy against betting horses who make it a habit of running second, which this colt has done 3 times from 4 starts. While these are the same connections who notoriously scored on the Kentucky Derby undercard a few years ago with Masochistic in a maiden race, One More Round does not sport the same muddied form as his predecessor nor are his connections under the radar with these types anymore.
Furthermore, pedigree and figure strength aside, this colt holds the ignominious reputation as being the colt that was beaten by another serial maiden Hoffenheim. That is form I just can not endorse so #1 is relegated to a “B” horse and will not be using him in my P5 ticket or on top in any vertical plays.
#2 PRESERVATIONIST: Touted on-air as a colt who “will be no secret” to bettors and his fairly gaudy workouts and $485,000 yearling price tag bolster that prediction by the Rosario camp. I was expecting this colt to look “lock city” and he did before I glanced more in depth as his competition, but that’s not to say this colt won’t win. He very well might and obviously has talent and good looks to come out running.
The pedigree behind that talent and conformation is not necessarily one that screams first time starter, but it is full of class though generations of smart breeding. Bred by Ms. Emory Hamilton, Preservationist is out of a mare Flying Dixie (Dixieland Band) who was a 4-time winner on dirt and has thus produced one winner from one other foal to start who won twice on Tapeta going 8F.
The dam of Flying Dixie (and second dam of Preservationist) is Flying Passage (A.P. Indy) and with her is where things really get interesting. While Flying Dixie was only an allowance winner, she is the sibling to stakes horses Soaring Empire (G3W on dirt), Hungry Island (MG2W on turf), and Tokyo Time (G3P on turf). Clearly the family has versatility and class!
For handicapping purposes, I don’t look much past a second dam for clues but since this family is recent and active figured it would be worth elaborating on Flying Passage’s dam (Preservationist’s 3rd dam) Chic Shrine (G1W of 1987 Ashland Stakes by Mr. Prospector). While the most significant stakes horse she produced is the 1995 G2 True North winner, Chic Shrine is notable for another filly of hers in addition to Flying Passage named Enchanted Rock.
Enchanted Rock (Preservationist’s 2nd dam’s ½ sister) is better known as the dam of crack 3yo colts Verrazano (MG1W) and El Padrino (G2W) as well as La Madrina who was 3rd in the 2015 Garland of Roses Stakes.
This female family is deep and other recent stakes winners produced by daughters of Chic Shrine include Harmonize, Japan, and Al Khali. We could keep going on all the class horses from Preservationist’s female line but suffice to say the family has been extremely productive at present and going back decades. Even if he doesn’t win today, Preservationist has all the components to be a very nice colt on a variety of distances and may even find the 7F of today’s race a bit sharp but this is a good spot on a glamorous weekend to get the fella started.
#3 MINI SALA: By stallion du jour Uncle Mo and trained by Todd Pletcher for the Brooklyn Boyz Stables, Mini Sala is the kind of colt you expect to debut with panache in a race and on a weekend like this. Uncle Mo’s success with his first crop (including Mini Sala) needs no introduction and likewise it’s understood that this colt’s $300,000 yearling price tag meant that he was a physical standout.
Mini Sala’s dam Sparkling City (Cape Town) was unraced and has one other foal to race by Unbridled’s Song who is 0/5 trying to break his maiden. While not a lot of sexy pedigree (yet) under the 1st dam, Sparkling City broodmare sire is Secretariat and you don’t have to be Frederico Tesio to know that’s a sign she not only has the potential to be a nice producer, but also that her female family is rather robust.
Indeed, Mini Sala’s second dam Navajo Pass (Secretariat) is relevant on the handicapping front as she has produced three first-out 2yo winners so it’s clear this is a precocious family. Those foals also happen to be by stallions I knew stood at Overbrook Farm and indeed, Navajo Pass is Gaines/Genty-bred but owned by William T. Young’s Overbrook Farm.
What the foals out of Navajo Pass lacked in class they made up for in speed and precocity, and it all becomes clearer when one discovers that Navajo Pass is out of Crimson Saint (track record-setter at 5F at ages 2, 3, and 4), thereby making her a full sister to Terlingua—the dam of none other than the immortal Storm Cat! Terlingua along with Weekend Surprise (A.P. Indy’s dam) are the color-bearers for the significance of Secretariat as a broodmare sire in American Thoroughbred breeding as they produced two of the most significant stallions in the world over the last 40 years.
In addition to producing full sisters Navajo Pass and Terlingua, Crimson Saint is also the dam of their full brother, MG2W sprinter Pancho Villa, as well as their ½ brother Royal Academy by Nijinsky II who was purchased for $3,500,000 in 1988 and went on to win the G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile and G1 July Cup before becoming an important sire himself.
There is so much female family in Mini Sala’s pedigree and the cross with Uncle Mo may produce extremely brilliant results as well as provide a touch of class that has been lacking in recent years. Mini Sala looks like a horse that can explode early and is probably well-meant today regardless of odds.
#4 ENCRYPT: By Tapit out of Ava Knowsthecode making him a sibling to Greenpointcrusader, Algorithms, Justin Phillip, etc. Much has been written about this sire and dam recently so no need to rehash that information. In terms of form, two seconds in two starts and now gelded while giving weight to others in this field make him a pass for me today.
#5 WHITEGATE: Bred to win early and making his second start while getting blinkers means he probably improves off his 6th place finish in his first start versus future stakes horses Vorticity and Condo King. Going against him are the long 8mo. layoff and the strength of this field today.
Look for him to be more effective against higher level maiden claimer competition at Saratoga in a few weeks.
#6 DO SHARE: Was claimed for $50,000 out of his first start by Paul Pompa and Pat Reynolds when running 4th of 11 and now jumps in class while stretching out for his second race. Given his inauspicious beginnings, I was initially going to pitch this colt but his breeding (Candy Ride out of a Yes It’s True mare) is too good for winning early that I took another look.
His dam You Asked was purchased for $200,000 as a yearling and went on to be a multiple stakes placed winner of $245,934. She has two other foals to race, both multiple winners, but who have shown little talent or any touch of class as of yet. A glance at her dam Dixie Deb shows that she was unplaced in one start and that daughter You Asked was her best foal to race, but the most interesting fact was that this 2nd dam of Do Share was owned and bred by Stuart Janney and therefore some pedigree and class must be nearby.
Sure enough, her dam Steel Maiden has been a source of quality via her daughters since the 1980s, and for example, Steel Maiden is 3rd dam of not only Do Share but also of Kentucky Derby winner Orb.
Up close in Do Share’s pedigree is a little barren for stakes horses, but consider that he is by Candy Ride and therefore the best sire dam You Asked has visited so this is the best opportunity for the family to show its quality. Even if this colt doesn’t turn out to be a stakes horse, he is certainly bred to be quick and could be productive at places like Monmouth sprinting on dirt or turf. He’s a B for me in this race today.
#7 BOMBS AWAY: This colt is definitely the most interesting of the runners in here who have already started. Triple Crown-nominated Bombs Away makes a second start for Team Shug/Phipps after running 3rd going 6.5F on Derby Day when he was more heavily bet than the aforementioned Encrypt who finished 2nd that day.
Working very sharply out of that start including two bullets leads one to believe he’s improved in condition and goes from post 2 to post 7, which can only help him if he shows speed.
Bombs Away is the first started for his dam Protesting (A.P. Indy) who was G2P at two when 3rd in the 9F Demoiselle. She won 3 times, one each on dirt, synthetic, and turf and at distances of 8.5F to 9F. Protesting was out of On Parade (Storm Cat) and is a ½ sibling most notably to Parading, a MG2W on turf. Being by Storm Cat, it is no surprise that On Parade won first out in her only career win.
On Parade’s most notable achievement is arguably that she is the first foal of Champion My Flag (Easy Goer), herself out of Champion and Broodmare of the Year Personal Ensign. On Parade’s second most notable achievement is that she is the full sister to Storm Flag Flying, the filly who would go on to make it 3 straight generations of Champion females from one line of bloodstock.
The quality throughout Bombs Away’s pedigree is abundant and the history is there for him to be another stakes horse for this tail-female line. With so much success on turf through his dam combined with Smart Strike as his sire, I would not be surprised to see Bombs Away on turf but it seems likely that he will be quiet adroit on any surface and especially if routing.
The Play this Race: A: 2,3,7; B: 1,6; C: 4,5
P5: 2,3,7/2,3,4,7/2,6/3/1,6,7=$36 for $.50
