Three central banks. Twenty-five hours. One unusually expensive week to get your timing wrong. The Fed decides Wednesday 29 April at 19:00 BST. The Bank of England decides Thursday 30 April at 12:00. The ECB decides Thursday 30 April at 13:15. A 1–2 cent move on GBP/USD across those two days is realistic. On a £500,000 transfer that's £7,500 — entirely outside the client's control once the statements drop. Where the consensus sits going in: - Fed: ~98% probability of hold at 3.50–3.75% (CME FedWatch) - BoE: All 62 economists in the Reuters poll expect hold at 3.75% — but markets are pricing two hikes by year-end - ECB: ~74% probability of hold at 2.00%, with June live The actual question for each isn't the rate — it's the tone. A hawkish BoE hold pushes GBP/EUR toward 1.16–1.17. A dovish one tests support around 1.14. Same for the Fed: language that explicitly removes 2026 cuts moves DXY a full point. UK CPI hit 3.3% in March, with services inflation up to 4.5%. Brent closed Friday at $105 with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed. The energy pass-through is the macro story driving all three central banks this week. For anyone with a GBP, EUR or USD payment scheduled this week — for property, invoices, or sale proceeds — the call is straightforward: complete before Wednesday, or fix today's rate with a forward contract. Leaving it to Thursday morning means buying the volatility. Full week-ahead breakdown with scenario tables and the GBP/USD, GBP/EUR and EUR/USD ranges in the link below.
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