The Secret of the Midwest
Before publishing the #8 EOSR, which is obviously BGSU (spoiler alert), a discussion about various Quidditch play might be important.
There is no doubt that there was a significant disparity between regions at the world cup, with the SW, MW and W making a strong statement, and the S, MA, and NE sputtering and failing.
But as analysts we must first make sure that this is due to the strength in each region, not other circumstances for instance:
Weather- It's not hard to see that 2/3 teams in the "underperforming" category come from relatively cold climates while 2/3 teams in the "overperforming" category come from relatively warm climates.
Regional date - 2/3 teams in the "underperformng" category had fall regional dates while 2/3 teams in the "overperforming" category had spring regional dates.
But why 2/3 if these are true? Why not 3/3? The answer lies, in the exceptions to both rules, the South and the Midwest.
The South's downfall can easily be characterized - they had no depth. Even if Miami went on to the semifinals instead of Bowling Green, the region would still be characterized as weak. Every region other than the south has at least 3 teams in the Top 2 Tiers (SW - A&M,UT,Baylor; W-LBQC,USC,UCLA; MW-BGSU,Kansas,Michigan NE - Boston, Emerson,Hofstra, MA - Penn State, Maryland, Villanova). The South has one (Miami).
And this is not DUE to the fact that they had a poor performance at WC VI and weren't ranked. The Eighth Man media rankings on March 31 mentioned not a single Southern team other than Miami (i.e no team even got a vote to be on there).
But what about the Midwest? The crazy region that's an analyst's nightmare? You had Kansas barely make the playoffs in the Regional, you had BGSU beat by like half the Midwest by the time world cup came around, Marquette was dominant..... and it's a completely different story now.
Well first, let us differentiate the MW from the other teams that had fall regionals and cold climates and underperformed at WC VI (NE,MA). Unlike those regions, the MW actually got significant practice time in between their fall regional and the World Cup. The number of games Boston played in the spring? 0. Emerson? 0. Penn State? 0. Maryland? 6 against McGill and a bunch of Tier 3+ teams that were not even close to being competition. Villanova? 4, including 3 losses to Tier 3 and 4 teams.
The MW on the other hand had tough, strong competition all throughout, and perhaps most importantly the entire region was extremely close to each other in skill set (MW has 2 teams in the bottom Tier 1, and 5 teams in Tier 2). This allowed the region to avoid the slumps that the NE and MA had in the spring.
But we are overlooking one more advantage the MW had due to not only the equal playing field but also the climate. The SWIM ratios of each region in cross-region play at the world cup show a clear dominance by the Midwest region (although the NE had a higher SWIM% cross region at WC VI, they played weaker opponents).
Playing in winter (and sometimes snow) changes the dynamic of the game quite a bit. The games are slower and because of both the cold and the snow, offense deteriorates faster than defense. As everyone knows at the beginning of any game most top teams regardless of skill level stay relatively equal (BGSU kept up with UT for ~7 minutes, UCLA ~12 in the WCVI matches). So now we have a region in which SEVEN TEAMS are in competitive range with each other (this is just the first two tiers, Purdue and CMU both are excellent teams as well). This results in more games going into snitch range than in any other region. And the stats agree:
9/20 (45.0%) W-W games between a Tier 2+ team and a Tier 3+ team were ISR
10/21 (47.6%) SW-SW games between a Tier 2+ team and a Tier 3+ team were ISR
28/41 (68.3%) MW-MW games between a Tier 2+ team and a Tier 3+ team were ISR
6/10 (60%) NE-NE games between a Tier 2+ team and a Tier 3+ team were ISR
3/8 (37.5%) MA-MA games between a Tier 2+team and a Tier 3+ team were ISR
What this led to - the deadliest performance at WC of any region in seeking. Midwest Tier 1 and 2 teams had a 13/17 SWIM record against Non-Midwest teams at World Cup, better than any region except the NE, which faced weaker competition.
And that - is the secret of the Midwest. Sure, it's not the Southwest or the West with 3 "stud" teams in the top of Tier 1 dominating the rest of the region, but it works, and that is why the Midwest is strong. That is why the Midwest, unlike their fellow regions on the East Coast, succeeded when all odds were against them.
