Based in Franklin Lakes, New Jersey, Evgeny Maftsir has a professional background extending to Russia. Experienced in bridge loans and global trading, Evgeny Maftsir (Евгений Мафцир) has a particular interest in trends related to the international commodities trade.
One area of uncertainty in early 2022 was the grain crop, with conflicts taking their toll on available resources. An example of rapid policy turnarounds involved India, which in February announced wheat production goals of 111.32 million metric tons. At this expected level, India would achieve record crops for the sixth straight year.
By early May, this forecast had been reduced to 105 million metric tons, although India was in talks with countries like Indonesia, Morocco, and Philippines about ways of creatively increasing shipments. However, when harvest forecasts dipped under 100 million metric tons due to a spike in mid-March temperatures, India moved to an enact a complete ban on wheat exports.
This new policy redirects about 10 million metric tons that were earmarked for export toward domestic supplies domestically. This includes shoring up supplies of the Food Corporation of India, a state-run entity that purchases from small farmers and distributes to the needy. In most years, farmers would rather sell to private trading concerns, which offer higher prices. With the export ban in place and no other major regional suppliers in the market, the move sets the stage for higher global wheat prices.
