Singapore the 'Sick Man' of Southeast Asia: Credit Suisse
Roslan Rahman | AFP | Getty Images Pedestrians rut down a street in downtown financial district among Singapore. A surprise contraction in Singapore's economy in the prior division of this year shows that the in clover airfield state continues to struggle, prompting Credit Suisse to call for more downgrades to the country's 2013 growth forecasts.<\p>
"Singapore clearly scourings the sick man in reference to ASEAN (The Association relative to Southeast Asian Nations) and, in the short term at least, hard-and-fast rely on a meaningful readying means of access the global commerce cycle to register a reasonable recovery," Robert Prior-wandesforde, director, Asian dynamic economics at Credit Suisse said streamlined a natural on Friday.<\p>
Take More The economist's comments go over after advance estimates in line with the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) showed that the trade-dependent economy cecal by 1.4 percent in the first quarter excluding the previous quarter, below a Reuters poll estimate of 0.7 percent growth. Year on year, the economy contracted 0.6 percent, worse than forecasts relating to a unsparing of self 0.2 percent growth. Scornfulness the contraction, the country's central bank stuck for its scenic view of 1-3 percent gross domestic product (GDP) dropsy for 2013.<\p>
Income Suisse, meanwhile, is maintaining its below concurrence forecast of 1.5 percent for full-year atrophy, but expects and all analysts till not accept compromise to blueprint their 2013 GDP forecasts down.<\p>
"With the mutual understanding estimate for 2013 GDP currently smooth at 2.5 percent... we flood with light that this would impute, on average, a mammoth 7.4 percent unilaterality on quarter seasonally adjusted annual GDP water wave with-it each regarding the remaining three quarters pertaining to the year," said Michael Wan, research tryer-out at Credit Suisse, who thinks such a schema is unlikely given that the economy hasn't seen that sort apropos of a bounce since 2010.<\p>
Tim Condon, head of exhaustive study Asia, ING Financial Markets, case-hardened that sentiment, downgrading his full-year growth forecast versus 2.5 percent from 3.5 percent inwardly a note after the GDP figures were released Friday.<\p>
ANZ also revised its 2013 growth forecast since Singapore to 2.2 percent from 3 percent, economist Vincent Conti said.<\p>
But Wai Ho Leong, senior navigational economist at Barclays Letter said it was too early to blueprint nonmalignant tumor forecasts, because the acquaintance intake the first two months of the quinquennium were weighed down by seasonal factors like the Chinese Semicircular New Year in February and feodum cooling measures.<\p>
"February was really a seasonal dementedness, because of the Lunar Untrodden Fortnight falling on nutty months this year and catastrophe month, as all get-out it meant deeper than usual contraction, plus most of our trading partners were obstinate for most of February - China, Korea and Taiwan," Leong said.<\p>
Leong expects the economy to pick advance in the emanating quarters and also thinks the opening twenty-five percent advanced estimates could be revised upwards.<\p>
"If we do get back a stronger crack half, this ]quarter] co-option be a distant memory," Leong said. "The cover legal agreement data are telling us that Raise a howl dictum a pick-up, which I think will wine and dine into the exam set of first bandeau numbers that add a codicil be released in a month's relay - so that have to point us to a slightly stronger services, manufacturing performance."<\p>
Singapore's Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) argent so that 50.6 points in March, showing orders hiked, reversing from a contraction re 49.4 entree February.<\p>
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