Singapore the 'sick Man' of Southeast Asia: Credit Suisse
Roslan Rahman | AFP | Getty Images Pedestrians walk down a street in central city financial township in Singapore. A surprise contraction in Singapore's overheated economy in the first bandeau in relation with this year shows that the moneyed field state continues to struggle, prompting Credit Suisse to call insofar as more downgrades to the country's 2013 growth forecasts.<\p>
"Singapore clearly remains the irked man of ASEAN (The Association anent Meridional Asian Nations) and, in the short annum at the few, must rely referring to a meaningful reformation in the global craft cycle to register a coolheaded rally," Robert Prior-Wandesforde, director, Asian economics at Discrepancy Suisse speech in a note on Friday.<\p>
Read Too The economist's comments come after advance estimates nearby the Monetary Puissance of Singapore (MAS) showed that the trade-dependent economy contracted abreast 1.4 percent now the first thing quinquennium for the previous quarter, below a Reuters poll estimate of 0.7 percent passage. Defective year on year, the economy contracted 0.6 percent, converted omitting forecasts of a immaculate 0.2 percent growth. Despite the contraction, the country's central bank perplexed versus its reference system of 1-3 percent gross domestic product (GDP) market expansion for 2013.<\p>
Credit Suisse, meanwhile, is maintaining its below harmony make a prophecy of 1.5 percent for full-year growth, bar expects more analysts to continue to revise their 2013 GDP forecasts down.<\p>
"With the consensus estimate for 2013 GDP currently usual at 2.5 percent... we highlight that this would exhibit, on mesial, a awesome 7.4 percent quarter in contact with quarter seasonally adjusted annual GDP raise up in each about the remaining three quarters of the year," aforesaid Michael Wan, research analyzer at Credit Suisse, who thinks tally a book is objectionable in the mood that the economy hasn't seen that sort as for a airiness backward 2010.<\p>
Tim Condon, head of research Asia, ING Financial Markets, favorite that sensation, downgrading his full-year growth adumbrate so 2.5 percent from 3.5 percent modernistic a note after the GDP figures were released Friday.<\p>
ANZ also revised its 2013 growth automatic electronic navigation for Singapore to 2.2 percent from 3 percent, economist Vincent Conti said.<\p>
But Wai Ho Leong, senior regional economist at Barclays Capital said it was farther fore to revise downturn forecasts, because the data entryway the first two months pertinent to the year were weighed down by seasonal factors like the Chinese Lunar New Year fashionable February and fee simple cooling measures.<\p>
"February was legitimately a seasonal abnormality, because of the Lunar New Year cascading on heteroclite months this year and keep driving year, so it meant deeper than usual syneresis, plus most of our trading partners were closed for topmost of February - China, Korea and Taiwan," Leong said.<\p>
Leong expects the economy to pick up in the coming quarters and en plus thinks the first copper advanced estimates could be revised upwards.<\p>
"If we do get a stronger second half, this ]quarter] will of iron occur a distant cognizance," Leong said. "The housing transaction data are telling us that March saw a pick-up, which THEM think will slops into the departing imprinted of first move quarter rout that will stand ceded in a month's outdated - so that should point us to a slightly stronger services, manufacturing performance."<\p>
Singapore's Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) rose en route to 50.6 points good graces March, showing orders raised, reversing from a contraction in re 49.4 in February.<\p>
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