Drank’s Postseason Rotation Preference
Pictured is Alex Wood, clearly confused about what his postseason role will be.
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Drank can hear you laughing, from wherever you are.
“PLAYOFFS?!?” you scream, in the most Jim Mora-way possible. “WE’RE TALKING ABOUT PLAYOFFS?!?”
LITERALLY PLAYOFFS. LITERALLY GUMBY.
The playoffs are literally two weeks away, and while the Dodgers have been doing whatever they can to sabotage their playoff aspirations, all media sources inform Drank that the Dodgers have already clinched a playoff spot, and are merely a single win or an Arizona loss away from bypassing the play-in game, to the actual tournament of pain. One more win, and the Dodgers’ odds of winning a World Series skyrockets to 12.5%, which is about where it would have been had the Dodgers won 116 games anyway.
I guess we do actually have to talk about playoffs! And now that the Dodgers are pretty much in this tournament of pain, they might as well try to actually figure out the best method to getting wins, preferably at the rate they were getting wins in June and July, and not the last 4 weeks.
To begin, let’s focus on the starting rotation. The rotation had 94 qualified candidates before the year, and then injuries dwindled that number down to roughly 8. Let’s start with the obvious.
Literally Clayton Kershaw. Need I say more?
Okay, literally Clayton Kershaw not hanging sliders up in the zone to Aaron Altherr. That Kershaw is a bad Kershaw, that really needs to avoid showing up in the postseason, or I might ban the internet and its hot takes from my house forever.
The good news is that, relatively speaking, Kershaw is pretty much the best pitcher in baseball again. And he won’t be pitching on 3-days rest. That’s a start.
Darvish has been maddeningly inconsistent since being acquired on August 1st, which at least is better than being Mattingly consistent. His fastball touches 97, his breaking pitches have wicked movement that at least will play as unhittable, and he will lose control of all of his pitches at random times.
Basically, since becoming a Dodger, Darvish has showcased why he has both A) the highest K/9 rate in baseball history, and B) why the Marlins could tag him for 9 runs in a 3-inning span.
The good news is that these regular season results don’t really mean anything. The other good news is that Darvish has the ability to put up a damn fine box line score even if he has no semblance of control with all of his pitches (see his last start in San Francisco). The bad news is that I really, really want good Yu Darvish to show up in October, and I have no idea if that is how it will actually play out.
Rich Hill is like the left-handed Yu Darvish, in that when his stuff is on point, he has the ability to take a no-hitter into the 9th inning... and sometimes even the 10th inning, before the season then spirals out of control. But unlike Darvish, Hill pretty much relies on 2 pitches in 2 parts of the zone. When it is working, it is an absolute thing of beauty.
In 2017, Hill has had lapses where he loses control, where he might walk 2 or 3 batters in an inning or give up consecutive home runs. When he is on, though, he is arguably the best #3 starter in a field full of really good #3 starters. Going to need that deception to play well, and going to need Hill to play well with the majority of his playoff starts likely to be on the road.
Just like we thought, another dominant left-handed... wait a minute, this guy didn’t make the All-Star team!
You might be wondering why the actual 4th best starter isn’t listed as the 4th best starter. I’ll get to that reasoning in a second. For now, note that Ryu has been perfectly fine as a starting pitcher, who has a .310 OBP against the first two times through the order. Expect 4 or 5 innings out of Ryu, then move onto the next piece.
Yes, I understand what Dave Roberts said. HEAR ME OUT, DAVE.
SUPER HYBRID RELIEVER LEFTY PERSON THAT HAS BECOME VERY VALUABLE FOR POSTSEASON TEAMS: ALEX WOOD
There it is!! Alex Wood--who led baseball in ERA for much of the season, who had elite strikeout rates for most of 2017 compared to the other elites in the game, who even got the anti-NERD crowd excited with his 15-3 record--should come out of the bullpen.
But not in any bad way at all. This is actually quite a prestigious role, if you have only paid attention to how postseason baseball has played out the last few years.
Let us start with the role Andrew Miller played in the 2016 MLB playoffs, when it became cool to be a reliever who could come in during the 5th or 6th inning instead of the 9th. The ability to put out potential fires and massive threats in games where every out and every run is absolutely crucial, is absolutely crucial. Terry Francona and Andrew Miller proved exactly why the save stat is the dumbest fucking stat of all time, because Miller really earned the save (and really, the win on several occasions) by coming in for 2 innings during the middle of a baseball game and shutting down the opposing team’s best hitters, at a moment where the game was pretty much on the line.
That role proved to be so effective, that the Dodgers elected to spend $80 million on a relief pitcher, which I would have never guessed would have ever happened with this front office. That role even proved to be so effective, that the Dodgers were rumored to be dangling some valuable pieces of the farm to bring in another potential dominant lefty reliever in Zach Britton--who was not even good enough to pitch in the 2016 AL wild card game!!
And the carry-over is obvious, as teams are already focusing on implementing that strategy for October. The Yankees, for instance, have like 7 different elite relievers that they can use at any time, and not just have to rely on Chapman metaphorically lodging bullets into garage walls in the 9th inning. The Red Sox have discussed using once-dominant-but-now-injured-a-lot lefty David Price in this role as well. Andrew Miller also figures to be Andrew Miller again come October.
So, if you are the Dodgers, why not Alex Wood?
Mind you, this is not for a loogy position--not when Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani have pitched as well as they have since being acquired. I am talking about using Alex Wood for 1-2 innings in 3 or 4 games of each series.
When Wood first moved to the bullpen to start the year, his fastball velocity touched 93. To pair that with his improved backdoor slider, opposing hitters had no chance. Then, as Alex Wood moved back into the rotation and kept his dominant form, his innings piled up again. Then, as his innings piled up, well...
You can clearly see from this handy chart and screengrab that as time has gone on, Alex Wood’s pitches have gotten less fast. That is a problem, coinciding with a few lackluster starts recently, which has contributed a little bit to the team’s terrifying downfall.
The point is, maybe it would not be the worst idea to put Alex Wood in the bullpen, where maybe you can find that uptick in velocity once again. If you assume Wood pitches 1-2 innings in relief in 3 games of the NLDS, then what you are really banking on is that Wood pitches 4-6 innings with the 93mph fastball, as opposed to 5-6 innings with the 91mph fastball. You are spreading out Wood’s value across the middle innings for multiple games, as opposed to pitting all of Wood’s value into 1 game, as unconventional as that sounds.
Oh, and in case you have not been paying attention to the last 4 weeks, middle relief has been sort of a clusterfuck tire fire. Maybe, in those games, relying on Wood to pitch the 6th and 7th innings before handing the ball to Morrow and Jansen is not the worst idea.
Of course, this does not mean anything if Wood can’t get his fastball velocity back up. But, in Drank’s opinion, it is the best, most wisest solution. Particularly also made by the fact that Ryu and Kenta Maeda have been perfectly acceptable rotation figures this season, despite their recent struggles as well.
Also, like Andrew Miller, Alex Wood is left-handed. Their first names both start with the letter A. They are pretty much clones of each other.
So, maybe, consider that.
Two weeks until Game 1 of the PLAYOFFS!??!? I am so terrifed.
