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Donerail, seen here after winning the 1913 Kentucky Derby had the highest odds ever for a horse to win. With odds of 91-1, Donerail provided a $184.90 payoff for a $2 bet. He was drawing away at the finish. He also set a new track record with a time of 2:04 4/5.
This.
Time To Get Back To Business!
Can we say the Breeders' Cup Season is officially underway? I guess so!
This weekend is the Whitney Invitational Handicap- G1 at Saratoga, one of the Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" races and the kick off for fantasy handicapping. Now I don't know if you've noticed or not, but I haven't posted much at all this summer- well that's because I kind of wanted to relax and enjoy the vicious beauty of watching Calder and Gulfstream go at each other. Now that the races for the Breeders' Cup are underway, I think it's about time to get this site up and running again! So let's take a look at this weekend's race:
Picks & Analysis
Whitney Invitational Handicap - Grade I. Breeders' Cup Win And You're In.
This race is for 3 year olds and up.
Win: #3 Fort Larned
Place & Show: #1 Successful Dan, #5 Ron the Greek
Fort Larned - Defending Breeders' Cup Classic Champion and Whitney Handicap Champion, this colt attempts to capture another win in this race. And I think he's got the winning formula. He's only raced 3 times this year, the first one was at Gulfstream Park for the Grade 2 GPHandicap where he unseated his rider and went on to win anyway, but that obviously doesn't count. Second was a Grade 2 at Oaklawn where he failed to perform and flopped into fifth. His most recent race was mid June at Churchill Downs where he won a Grade 1 against fellow runner Ron the Greek. The distance of that race matches his race for this weekend, 1 1/8 miles. His recent workouts have been very sharp and have shown a pattern of increasing speed, I'd say he's set to step up and repeat the same style he showed in his most recent start at CD.
Successful Dan - Half brother to reigning horse of the year, Wise Dan, this pony will try to live up to his name with a start from the rail. His most recent workouts have been quite sharp, indicating his willingness to perform this weekend. He'll have a few setbacks to overcome, primarily starting from the 1 post and typically having a running style that is a little bumpy. His best advantage would be to work off of a slow pace, but if Fort Larned steps up a slow pace will be all but out of the picture.
Ron the Greek - This guy right here has faced my first place pick multiple times in the past, typically getting beaten out at the end. He's fallen in the money in the past two races, Grade I & II stakes. His best Bris speed fig is in the slop at Gulfstream Park back in January. He'll be stalking in the back majority of the race until he has an opportunity to make his move in the far turn. He'll definitely have to pull an incredible move or get really lucky to get the win, but I'm seeing him finishing right in the third spot.
Eyes on: #2 Mucho Macho Man & #4 Cross Traffic
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Are you doing Breeders' Cup Fantasy capping? You totally should! Click here and sign up for the private league "Tumblr's Greatest Handicappers" with the password: unionrags. This is totally a cool way to socialize and make friends while betting with play money! I'm looking forward to it and I hope you are too!
Don't forget, this race is going national. You can catch it on your picture box, formally known as a Television, on NBC starting at 5 O'Clock EST.
Final Thought:
Now that I'm getting this site back up and running to full functionality since Triple Crown season, that also means the adjoining twitter account is back up and running too! Follow here: @TRacingCentral
Good luck to everyone this weekend!
You've got no idea, this battle between the two tracks is getting serious. The peeps at Calder keep making stupid decisions like not letting horses come back once they've raced at Gulfstream. Talk about pushing away your customers! From what I know and the owners I've talked to, everyone is desperate to get a stable at GP and get as far away from Calder as possible. I'd say they're on their final stretch now, it won't be long before they turn into another Hialeah Park.
The game that inspired Spicer Cub...
SUMMER RACING IS UNDERWAY
I recently returned from my vacation in Brasil where I spent a week of R&R in Rio de Janiero. Beautiful place, beautiful people, and most importantly beautiful horse racing.
As you may know, the tracks that I visit in the states are Gulfstream Park and Calder. It was nice to go to a foreign country and learn about their interest in horse racing. The name of the track I visited in Brasil is Hipodromo da Gavea, normally referenced as the Jockey Club. It has a capacity of 80,000 people, main track is grass, and is primarily made up of marble and granite. The track is incredibly old, built in 1926.
The first photo is a panoramic I took while waiting at the rail for a race to start. The second photo is an arial picture I took from a mountain when I was visiting Cristo Redentor.
The two other photos are of a couple of Fillies during a post parade. FUN FACT: a post parade in Brasil isn’t an oval/circle like at most american tracks but is actually a figure 8 that goes in front of a restaurant so diners can look at the horses and get in bets.
I have a video of this specific race I took and I’ll make sure to post it later.
GULFSTREAM PARK IN THE SUMMER TIME
Gulfstream Park is racing in the summer! Weeee! I recently spent one of my days at GP to take in the exciting new year round racing they have. What’s different from winter? Well, less people are there but mainly the Grandstands are free for everyone. Which is great! Because down here in Florida it gets hottt.
Naturally, I want the best seats in the house. So I went to where all the empty “sky boxes" are and decided I’d rather sit there, because no one else was using them. I guess everyone thought they were off limits, don’t know but I was able to enjoy the races from the sky box of Mr. Todd Pletcher. I was just being a good friend and keeping it warm for him, you know. The last photo is the name tag behind the sky box. It was fun playing Pletcher for a day.
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I hope everyone is having a great summer vacation! I hope your winning money and handicapping like champs! Shout out to the 2 year old ponies that will soon have all of our attentions! Follow me on twitter @TRacingCentral!
Please quit posting so often. You're clogging up my dashboard, man.
I'm sorry! I'm just a blog-a-holic!
Make a post!
Thanks for the concern broski, I feel so loved!
I will though! The period between the Preakness and the Belmont is a time that I think is slower in our sport, big name 3 year olds are either waiting for the Belmont or a stakes race in the end of June/July. I also think June is kind of the "off season" because two year olds are still up and coming for next year and people haven't decided yet on whether they'll make a run for the Breeders Cup.
So I'm using this time to make sure my interest in ponies going left isn't making me fail at other parts of my life lol but I'll pick up for the Belmont and get to making daily post again!
Quick Poll: Daily Racing Form PPs or Brisnet PPs?
What is your method for attacking the races?
Preakness Stakes Picks & Analysis
Win: #1 Orb
Place & Show: #2 Goldencents, #9 Itsmyluckyday
Eye On: #5 Mylute
Orb is on a continuous roll of improvement starting with the Fountain of Youth, wins the Florida Derby at a slow pace, and then wins the Kentucky Derby in the sloop. He's versatile and came out of the derby looking better than ever, his training these past two weeks have given his trainer Shug Mcgaughey "chills" and he's expecting no less than a win from this horse.
Goldencents is coming back after his poor performance in the Kentucky Derby, but I'm betting on his Santa Anita derby performance that was at a 1 1/8 distance to show itself here. He's a fast pony when the conditions are in his favor, but I think this will be a much nicer track for him.
Itsmyluckyday has come in second at this distance before to Orb in the Florida Derby. Eddie Plesa blamed the sloppy track at Churchill Downs for the poor performance of lucky in the derby. Elvis Trujillo is off the mount and was replaced with Jonny V. Lucky has trained way too good these past months for him to have run so slow, I think this will be his chance for redemption.
Mylute had a strong performance in the derby coming in fifth, I'm not quite sure how these past two weeks have treated this horse and I wouldn't be surprised if he came in dead last. But I'd keep an eye on him.
Look, I know I picked a bunch of favorites but these seem like the most likely outcome of this race. We'll see how this turns out but definitely do not take my word for these! Good luck to everyone out there!
Part 2 of the Triple Crown is moments away!
Post positions for the Preakness!
How To "Win" The Preakness
With the Preakness being run this Saturday, a dilemma that is seen every year becomes prominent once again: "How do I win money when the horse I think will win is so bet down?" Good question! Now let's see how we can approach this.
Unlike a typical stakes race, the Preakness is the second jewel in the Triple Crown and will garner the attention of over a million different people from around the world. Meaning? Morning Line favorite, Orb, will most likely get pounded by people who see the "Kentucky Derby Winner" running again. Looking at risk vs. reward, you would have to throw over $15 dollars to Win if you actually want to get a payback worth buying a nice dinner. So now we take what I call the "backdoor" approach to making money this Saturday.
Now what is the backdoor approach? Like I mentioned, a lot more people will be betting this race than a typical Stakes because of the fact that it's a Triple Crown race being broadcasted on national television. So because a lot of these people won't be the typical horse racing fan/bettor they tend to only follow one bet type- Win. Which is why Orb will be bet so hard to Win because these "new bettors" just want the feeling of winning something, even if it's just .40 cents- which is great for everyone involved! What they won't know about are exotics. Now that's our backdoor method to winning this thing.
There are many different exotic bets that will pay a lot of money for those who are seasoned veterans:
- Exacta - Trifecta - Superfecta - Super Hi-5
- Daily Double - Pick-3 - Pick-4 - Pick-5 - Pick-6
Now how do we put together a plan that makes a lot of money while taking advantage of the fact that the betting public will be focused hard on one horse. We put together an "Exotic Couplå".
Exotic Couplå (N)- the process of making 2 or more different exotic bets; making a 'vertical' bet and 'horizontal' bet that work off each other. Ex: Trifecta & Daily Double
With that, I would focus on making 3 strong exotic bets. Either a Superfecta/Super Hi-5, Pick 4/5/or 6, and Susan-Preakness Double. Let me talk about the Susan-Preakness double real quick. A major advantage a seasoned horseplayer has over the hundreds of thousand new players for Saturday is the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes being run the Friday before the Preakness- majority of people won't know/care. I know you guys already know what it is, but just for fun I'll clarify the purpose of that race: it's the second race in the Triple Tiara for fillies. I'll come back to that soon.
Let's focus on the first exotic I'd say we should put together, a vertical bet. Which is picking horses in the order they will finish. This is where we take advantage of Orb, though his odds are incredibly low he's the perfect horse to key in for first. Now I know you might think that has a lot of risk involved, but of course it will, it's gambling! I'd say for the sake of feeling a little better, you can wheel Orb with another pick of your choice for first. But let's say we just key Orb as first, now all you do is wheel the horses you think will finish in 2nd through 4th or 5th. The advantage of having a lot of pool money going towards the favorite is that some of these horses that you think will finish 3rd or 4th could have odds upwards of 20/1. Las Vegas Review Official Handicapper Richard Eng and Steve Byk have both echoed something I strongly believe, you only need one horse with high odds to make a lot of money in an exotic. You also save some money when you only have one horse in a slot.
Now my second exotic would be a Pick 3, 4, 5, or 6. Now what makes this one a little challenging and time consuming is that you'll be required to handicap more than one race on the Pimlico card that day. But the payoff could be quite sexy. Let's say you want to make a pick 3, in reality you only need to handicap 2 races. Why? Using the same method for the vertical bet, I would key Orb and possibly your second choice in the slot to win that race.
Now the final exotic I'd make to finish off this Exotic Couplå is the Susan-Preakness double. The public that will be drowning the Preakness in money will not even know that Pimlico provides this bet or they just won't care. Taking advantage of this is the simplest of all the other exotics, pick two horses you think will win- maybe a third longshot with nice odds from the Susan race and pair them with Orb in the Preakness. That's your ticket. Take advantage of this one, you could make a decent payback and it should be a little easier because you're handicapping two stakes races (which I find easier than a claiming/allowance). The payout for the Kentucky Oaks/Derby Double was $620 on a $2 bet, not too bad for having a favorite win the Derby.
In Conclusion...
The way to win this thing and come out with a lot of money is to make an Exotic Couplå. You'll need to hit this race at multiple angles to make sure you cover your bases. Also, abuse the fact that Orb is indeed the heavy favorite but that he also does have a huge shot of winning this thing- so key him in first. I'd avoid making Win, Place, Show bets because the risk vs. reward ratio is quite low. Also, if you feel compelled to add another horse in the first slot with Orb, I'd have to go with Itsmyluckyday. I'll get into that later in the week. Also, very important, possibly the most important thing to do is follow me on Twitter @TRacingCentral. Just because.
Part 2 of the quest for the Triple Crown is just around the corner, are you ready?
Less than two weeks ago, Shug McGaughey’s Orb logged a decisive win in the Kentucky Derby, splashing home in the mud to outkick them all as clearly the best horse in the field. While I am still weighing whether or not he can win the elusive Triple Crown, confidence is high that he can win...
This is very very accurate.
Orb looking REALLY good for this morning’s breeze. Seriously, this horse moves like water.
Just like his breeze before the Kentucky Derby. All the other horses are just racing for second at this point.
Orb Has Final Workout Before Preakness
His trainer Shug Mcgaughey had this to say after: "I thought it was freaky. It didn't look like he got out of a high gallop. It gave me chills. That's what good horses do."
4 Furlongs: 47.18
Out in 5F: 59.54
Reason To Not Underestimate Departing
I was just taking a quick glance at the Preakness PPs and I noticed something about Departing that I've failed to see before:
Those are his two most recent races and if you look all the way to the right you see a bold 'L'. First time on Lasix. From a handicapping angle, this is probably one of the, if not, the main reason why his odds were bet down so much in his last race(1.90/1). From a pure athletic angle Lasix gives a horse a major boost, especially given his running style of a late closer.
How will this affect the upcoming race? A second time Lasix runner can be just as deadly as their first time on it. When he wasn't on it, he came third in the Louisiana Derby- not too bad.
Now I'm not saying he's gonna be the end-all horse for Orb's Triple Crown quest, but he'll be a factor in the final Furlongs. As an exotic, it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to wheel him in the 3rd or 1st slot, but we'll have to see how his odds play out Preakness day.
Six days and we'll be at Part 2 of the Quest for the Crown!
Bold Ruler, sire of Secretariat.
Winner of the Preakness and making fast babies!
