Jonathan Martin for Politico:Â
But when it comes to politics â both present-day battles and future trends â ground zero right now is the fastest-growing of the mega-states: Texas.
Texas Republicans now mirror their national counterparts, a party cleaved between conservatives radicalized by President Barack Obama and an establishment wing that alternates between taming the fire-breathers and accommodating them.Â
The Republican fear of being âprimariedâ has infected the Lone Star State at high levels. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), the second-ranking Senate Republican, is going to lengths to preempt a primary challenge from the right by sticking close to his colleague, tea party-backed Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who has been in the chamber for all of a month.
And for both parties, Texas is arguably Exhibit A in how demographic forces are shaping electoral destiny.
Democrats here, shut out of statewide office since 1994, are glum about their current prospects but hopeful about a future revival for the same reason the national party is optimistic about their chances of retaining majority status in the coming years: the electorate is changing in their favor.
But now the GOP, in Texas and beyond, faces a test with Hispanics with how it procedes on immigration reform.
While Johnson and Carter have dived into discussions on the issue, Cornyn and especially Cruz have been far more hesitant. Some Texans worry that if Cruz votes against the eventual bill, Cornyn will have to as well â and that their opposition, even with Senate passage, will make it harder on the stateâs House Republicans to back comprehensive reform.
Straus, much like Speaker John Boehner, has had to quiet some of his more ideological members whoâve garnered press coverage for pushing issues such as the TSA groping matter and âSanctuary Cities.â
Strausâs job is safe in part, though, because he enjoys coalition support from a bloc of Democrats and Republicans.
But while that enables him to muzzle conservatives in his caucus, Cornyn, the new GOP whip, has no such luxury.
Democrats snicker that heâs now stuck on âCruz Control,â following the lead of his junior partner on issues ranging from the confirmation of Secretary of State John Kerry (they comprised two of the three ânoâ votes) to the re-authorization of the Violence Against Women Act (which garnered 78 âyesâ votes).
âCruz is essentially now able to determine Cornynâs dance steps,â said Rep. Castro.
The 42-year-old senator represents the new vanguard of his party in both Texas and beyond. Elected to the Senate after winning a primary runoff against the establishment-backed sitting lieutenant governor, heâs part of a new cadre of âRed Dawn Republicansâ that came of age when Ronald Reagan was president and are more conservative than their elders. The Houstonian has become an overnight star among conservatives for his prosecutorial aggression toward Chuck Hagel during the would-be Defense secretaryâs confirmation hearings but is raising eyebrows among some of his more senior colleagues.
Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), who has taken the helm of the Financial Services Committee, said Cruz represents the urgency bordering on panic many grass-roots conservatives are gripped by in an era of large deficits.
âPeople sense that time is running off the clock,â said Hensarling. âAnd theyâre looking for people who will not only articulate what they think but also will take action. Thatâs what they see in Ted Cruz.â
Cruzâs victory last summer against longtime Lt. Gov David Dewhurst sent shockwaves through the state political establishment and sent the same message to Texas politicos as tea party wins have in other states: ambitious conservatives arenât going to wait their turns any longer.
âYou are going to see more contested races in the primaries.,â explained Austin-based GOP consultant David Weeks. âThe Cruz race changed things.â
As his votes show, Cornyn got that message. The other big question now hanging over Texas is whether Attorney General Greg Abbott is feeling as emboldened as Cruz. Abbott, who has held his office for a decade, is sitting on an $18 million war chest and is mulling whether to run for governor in 2014. That could mean a primary challenge against Perry, who is now in his 13th year as governor and has been back in the news for another job poaching run in California. But the betting in Austin is that the governor could forgo a fourth gubernatorial campaign to prepare for another run.
âIf he doesnât run for governor, I assume heâll run for president,â said one Perry adviser.