Thoughts on the Thirds System at TBS
The thirds system was made so that highly ranked officers are spread out across the fleet, and a less âsexyâ Military Occupational Specialty (MOS) is not filled with below average officers. When I first joined, I thought it was an interesting concept, but it made for a lot of job uncertainty. After experiencing 10 months of Officer Candidate School and The Basic School (TBS), we were constantly reminded that we must first be focused on being a leader of Marines, regardless of our MOS. Still, I will remember that fateful MOS day, partly because of the ridiculous PT my Staff Platoon Commander (SPC) made us do and partly because I was so afraid I might not like my MOS. Fortunately, I got my #1 choice.
Recently, I spoke to a man who programmed the algorithm that automates MOS selection for new officers at TBS. I came away understanding the algorithm a lot better. The following is what I took away, but bear in mind that he explained things really fast, and I didnât 100% understand everything he said. That said, hope this helps...
First, Iâll assume you are an officer at TBS, so letâs rehash what you probably already know. Officers with aviation or law contracts are excluded due to the fact their Primary MOSâs is (for the most part) already decided. Officers who are reservists are also excluded from the thirds system due to the additional parameters inherent in the reservist program. Additionally, the âcompetitive airâ contracts are excluded. Thus, only the âground-assignableâ officers are left.
Officers are then classified into âthirdsâ based on their TBS grades: top third, middle third, and bottom third. Note that the grades are current as of the time of the actual MOS selection, not the final TBS grades. Ground-assignable officers are then assigned their Primary MOSâs based on how they rank the entire list of PMOSâs, starting from the top of each third and winding down to the bottom of the respective third. Those in the top of the thirds are more likely going to receive the MOSâs of their choice while the ones at the bottom are usually shit out of luck.
Now, all of the MOSâs are divided amongst the thirds. For example, if there are 50 0302 Infantry Officer MOS slots available for a class, those 50 slots might be divided up as 15 top / 15 middle / 15 bottom / 5 general. This is done to ensure no MOS is overrepresented in any specific third. However, the more competitive MOSâs (intel, air traffic controller, etc.) tend to be shifted to the top and middle thirds only. The âgeneralâ category is something that the programmer mentioned that I donât understand -- I just remember it as peculiar.
The algorithm works by looking at your #1 MOS preference and then checks to see if you qualify for it based on the availability of the MOS in your third and other parameters. If you do not meet the parameters set or the slots for your #1 MOS are exhausted, the algorithm will not select you for that MOS and move to your #2. If you donât qualify for your #3 or that MOS is exhausted, you move on again and so forth.
Now, the additional parameters other than the number of MOS slots available are TS qualified, TS-SCI qualified, and ânot ground.â The TS and TS-SCI qualifications are basically whether you submitted an intel package at the beginning of the TBS period of instruction. If you did not, obviously you will not meet those criteria. TS applies to all the intel MOSâs, except for 0206 Signals Intelligence Officer, which requires the higher TS-SCI. Finally, the ânot groundâ parameter will invalidate your MOS choice for a ground combat MOS. âNot groundâ is the only input that someone else (specifically, your SPC / TBS staff) has in the algorithm. The five MOSâs considered ground combat are 0203, 0302, 1302, 1802, and 1803.
For example, letâs say you are ranked in the middle of the top third, and your list looks like this: 1) 0204, 2) 0206, 3) 1302, 4) 5803, 5) 0402 ... and so forth. Letâs also say that you did not turn in an intel package, and your SPC did not believe you cut it for Ground Combat and marked you ânot ground.â Because you did not complete the intel package, you are neither TS or TS-SCI qualified, and the algorithm will knock you out of 0204 and 0206. Then, because you were marked as ânot ground,â the algorithm will knock you out of 1302, which is considered a ground combat MOS. Letâs say there were very limited slots for 5803, and the slots for your third are already filled by higher ranked officers. Thus, you would be knocked out of 5803 as well. Finally, the algorithm comes to 0402, and letâs say it still has slots available. Since there are no special criteria for this MOS and it is available, you are selected to be a 0402 Logistics Officer. Congratulations? Not quite.
The Executive Officer (XO) of your TBS company receives the automated selection results, and then he/she along with the SPCâs trade MOSâs of the company. The algorithm programmer with whom I spoke looked at final MOSâs assigned compared with MOSâs that were selected by the algorithm over a three-year period. According to him, the difference in final MOSâs assigned from the algorithm-selected MOSâs was approximately 30% on average, with the highest deviance a whopping 55%.
Why does the TBS staff trade MOSâs? Why donât they just let the algorithm do its thing and accept the results? As a junior officer who has not been behind the curtain at TBS, I assume that TBS staff is trying to balance several things. Most likely, the staff is trying to assign everyone an MOS that is high on their lists as much as possible. Or maybe you may think, as I did at TBS, that the staff just wants to have nice stats (large % got something in their top 5, some % got in their top 10, and minimal % got below that). However, the algorithm is blind and will choose an officerâs 24th choice if that is all that is left. In fact, while I was talking to the programmer, I saw one officer who was selected by the algorithm for his very last ranked MOS, which was 0302; however, he was assigned as a 0602, which was his first choice.
Another likely consideration being balanced is the SPCâs judgment of a specific Marineâs aptitude for an MOS. While the TBS staff can mark you as ânot groundâ for ground combat MOSâs, there are no other parameters for the other MOSâs. The TBS staff wants to put the company where the majority will bloom. If one officer was selected for her 1st choice while another got his 20th choice, an SPC may have to sacrifice the officer with the 1st choice so that the officer with the 20th choice can have a more palatable MOS. If TBS followed the algorithm strictly, itâs likely the Marine Corps would have a retention issue for junior officers. Itâs not perfect, but it makes sense.
Final âsaved roundsâ... 1) Given the significant differences between what it selected and what was finally assigned, the best course of action is tell your SPC what you want. Do research beforehand, and make sure they know in your initial counseling and try to be as consistent as possible. 2) Donât try to game the thirds system. Even if you are near the bottom of a third, donât fail on purpose. Your ranking at TBS can affect the rest of your Marine Corps career (or at least thatâs what they tell us). Still, your SPC may go to bat for you if you were consistent. 3) Finally, trust in the system. You may or may not ultimately be very happy with your MOS. However, there are extraordinary opportunities in every MOS, and as an officer, you should be focused on making the MAGTF succeed. If youâre still not happy, then try to lateral move to another MOS, but youâll only be competitive for anything if you âbloom where youâre planted.â
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