Champions League Quarterfinals Predictions
As American college basketball fans revel in the upsets, buzzer beaters, and general insanity of the NCAA Tournament, Europe’s version of March Madness is playing out with an equal level of excitement. We’ve finally reached the Champions League quarterfinals, and just like the basketball tournament, there’s a mix of heavy favorites and underdogs still standing (Florida Gulf Coast and Galatasaray, anyone?). Here are my predictions for the quarterfinals, which kick off next week:
Bayern Munich vs Juventus
Bayern come into this tie off a surprising home defeat to Arsenal, a loss that displayed some of the German side’s flaws in the midfield and defense. Although their form in the Bundesliga has been impeccable, I think Bayern will struggle to cope with the solidity of an experienced Juventus squad. While Juve doesn’t have a star attacker, they’ve still managed to get the results they need through a balanced front line of Mirko Vucinic, Fabio Quagliarella, and Sebastian Giovinco—all of whom have seven goals on the season. They also have wily old Andrea Pirlo pulling the strings in the five-man midfield, and I think he’ll be able to unlock the Bayern defense. Yes, Juventus did play a weaker Celtic side in the last round, but Bayern played an Arsenal team that’s been struggling mightily of late.
An interesting element of this tie concerns how both teams are approaching Tuesday’s first match. Bayern come into the game after thrashing Hamburg on their stroll to the title, and they’ll certainly be full of confidence. Juve beat Inter Milan earlier today to widen their own lead in Serie A, and their confidence too will be very high coming into Tuesday. Interestingly, Juve manager Antonio Conte says his team’s focus will ultimately be on preserving their place in the league, and today’s result certainly helped.
Fabio Quagliarella (27) celebrates with teammates after scoring against Inter Milan (Luca Brono)
Overall, I think Juve’s experience and defensive solidarity will give them the edge against the soon-to-be German champions. It will be painful for Bayern to make another Champions League exit after a deep run, but I have Juventus moving on in a very close tie.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona
After routing AC Milan at the Nou Camp, no one is flying higher in this competition than Barcelona. They deserved criticism for a frigid display in Milan, but any doubts about their defensive frailties were dispelled by another commanding performance at home. Unfortunately, this means trouble for Paris Saint-Germain. Even with talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic cleared to play, PSG face a tall order if they hope to contain Barcelona’s potent attack in Paris. If they concede an away goal, I think the tie is all but over. Barcelona might be without Xavi and Jordi Alba and they’re already missing Puyol and Adriano—this may give PSG a chance to contain Barcelona in the first leg, but Messi can change the game at will.
Here are Messi's contributions to Barcelona's 4-0 rout of AC Milan at the Nou Camp.
While a lot of people may focus on the Barcelona attack matching up against the PSG defense, I wouldn’t overlook the Parisian side’s strike force. Javier Pastore, Ezequiel Lavezzi, and Jeremy Menez have driven PSG’s creative midfield and attack this season, and having Ibrahimovic present will be a huge boost for the team. Barcelona’s make-shift defense might be vulnerable, but PSG will have to take every chance (unlike Milan in the second leg) if they want to stay in the tie.
Oh, and how could I forget David Beckham? I don’t think he’ll have a real impact in this matchup, but who knows—any dead ball situation becomes a dangerous situation with Beckham on the field.
Still, I just can’t see PSG outplaying the Catalans over two games. There may be a lot of pressure on the Barcelona defense, but Messi and co. will get the results they need—especially at home. Barcelona will move on and challenge for yet another Champions League title.
Malaga vs Borussia Dortmund
I don’t think any team has a better group of young players than Borussia Dortmund. With a midfield comprised of Mario Gotze, Nuri Sahin, and Marco Reus, the German side play some of the best passing soccer on the continent. Having Robert Lewandoski up front to finish off Dortmund’s technical moves only adds to the team’s confidence as well. They’ll be matching up against a Malaga side that’s been forced to sell some key players like Santi Cazorla and Nacho Monreal (both to Arsenal) but still find themselves in contention after a great comeback over Porto. They have a couple rising stars like goal-scorer Isco and midfielder Francisco Portillo to complement more experienced players like Joaquin, Javier Saviola, and Roque Santa Cruz; this experience has led them to the results they need in the Champions League despite being only 6th in La Liga.
Dortmund's Mario Gotze, who's already made a name for himself as one of the Bundesliga's best playmakers.
On paper, Dortmund are the clear favorite. Not only did they top the group of death, but they coasted through their tie against tricky Shakhtar Donetsk. I think they have all the necessary tools to make a serious run for the title despite their lack of experience. However, Malaga and manager Manuel Pellegrini will make life tough for Dortmund. I expect the Spanish side to cut down Dortmund’s swift passing game and look for chances to counter—with their experience, they won’t go down easily. Mats Hummels, Dortmund’s reliable center-back , will also be missing the first leg, giving Malaga a bit more of a chance on the break.
Ultimately, this tie hinges on possession for me. If Dortmund can dominate the game, hold on to the ball, and play their slick style, they’ll create far too many chances for Malaga to cope with. The Spaniards will need to take their chances from counter-attacks if they want to stay within sight of the German side, but that’s something I just don’t see happening.
Winner: Borussia Dortmund
Galatasaray vs Real Madrid
After their dramatic victory over Schalke in the round of sixteen, Galatasaray became my favorite team left in the competition. It’s been five years since a Turkish team made it to the quarterfinals and Galatasaray may be the biggest underdog left in the competition, even more so than Malaga. I wouldn’t rule them out of it, though—their recent big money moves landed them Didier Drogba and Wesley Sneijder to complement a decent outfit of rising Turkish stars and other internationals (Emmanuel Eboue, anyone?). They also boast the competition’s surprising top-scorer, Burak Yilmaz.
Unfortunately, Galatasaray are running into perhaps the hottest team left in the tournament, Real Madrid. With Barcelona wrapping up La Liga, Madrid and Jose Mourinho will certainly view the Champions League as their ultimate goal. Recent wins over Barcelona and Manchester United have boosted their confidence and they haven’t dropped a point since February 2nd. Despite the loss of captain Iker Casillas to injury, Madrid show no signs of slowing down with Cristiano Ronaldo, Gonzalo Higuain, and Karim Benzema leading a vaunted attack with Mesut Ozil and Xabi Alonso controlling the play in midfield.
Real Madrid showed their poise by knocking off Manchester United in the round of sixteen.
For Galatasaray to get any kind of result, they’re going to need some clinical finishing, a great defensive performance, and a little bit of luck. Still, they showed their defensive vulnerabilities during the tie against Schalke, and I expect Ronaldo and co. to exploit every crack in the Turkish backline and create tons of chances. While Gala showed a lot of spirit to come back against the German side and have the best home-field advantage out of the remaining teams, beating Madrid over two legs is simply too much to ask.