Tim Radtke

Personal blog o

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Apparently, the efficient market hypothesis can not only be applied to stock markets, but also to the App Store. This week, the market chose to sell Lufthansa shares and to invest in the app Flightradar24, which displays the current air traffic on an interactive map.

The graph above shows the rank history of Flightradar24 in the App Store’s top download chart for the days from March 21 to March 27. The blue line stands for the rank in France, the red line for Germany, and the brown line for Spain. Flightradar24 costs €3.99 to download. The data and graph has been provided by App Annie.

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While playing Mr Jump for a couple of minutes, I was inevitably confronted with a couple of app install ads. These reminded me of the quotes which circulated after Bill Gurley’s SxSW session. Bill Gurley argued that a couple of important start-ups wouldn’t reach the year 2016, and that in consequence the expenditures on app install ads would decrease. In particular, he was quoted as seeing Facebook's mobile ad revenue at risk. However, small games like Mr Jump seem to be even more exposed to the risk of vanishing expenditures on app install ads. If games that monetize by charging $39.99 for the in-app purchase of 55 sigils go away, what would happen to games that solely charge $2.99 to remove ads? 

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Tinder Plus Third-Degree Price Discrimination

Yesterday, Tinder rolled out its first paid features called Tinder Plus as the London Evening Standard reports:

Users under the age of 28 who want the extra functions will be charged £3.99 a month, and those over 28 will pay £14.99. The app will remain free, though non-paying users will no longer be able to make unlimited right-swipes.

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Kanye West released a new single featuring Theophilus London, Allan Kingdom, and Paul McCartney.

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A Yeezy for all Seasons

Not only could it be that Casey Johnston has written the best depiction of Kanye West ever, but her article manages at the same time to highlight everything that Medium can offer as a publishing platform:

The most labor-intensive, compulsive, and scientific way to determine the Greatest Kanye West Song of All-Time. (And, in the process, hopefully figure out why he means this much to me).

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Futures of Text

Jonathan Libov describes a future in which we don't have to talk with our machine, but instead interact through short texts similar to SMS:

The other primary alternatives to the “There’s an app for that” paradigm are Google Now and Siri today. However, I’m skeptical of a future where we communicate with computers primarily by voice. The visions in 2001: A Space Odyssey and the Her portray voice as the most effortless interaction, but voice actually requires a lot more cognitive and physical effort than pointing with a mouse, typing on a keyboard, or tapping on app icon and then navigating the UI. Consider all those times you’ve exchanged a million texts with someone while making plans when voice would have resolved it much more quickly. Text is often more comfortable even if it’s less convenient.

I believe comfort, not convenience, is the most important thing in software, and text is an incredibly comfortable medium. Text-based interaction is fast, fun, funny, flexible, intimate, descriptive and even consistent in ways that voice and user interface often are not.

The way in which Libov begins his article with the SMS based bus arrival time service, to then develop various examples and ideas, is excellent. It was intriguing to read the combination of existing services that already utilize the chat interface (or any text) as a way to interact with the user, and Libov's Photoshop sketches that suggest a bright future for text and messaging AI.

Which reminded me of the way I interact with Fantastical's natural language parser, and how much I prefer Spotlight to Siri. Needless to say that I find his case compelling. The future of text can't arrive soon enough.

Hold on tight.

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Shot on iPhone 6

Apple is currently featuring stunning photography on their website. You should go out and take more pictures. Missing gear is no longer an excuse.

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On the last day of February the weather was a manifestation of the upcoming spring. It was windstill, and the city crowded with people who yearned for the first warm sunlight of 2015. I can assess this as I was driving through the city, moving apartments and lucky enough not having to worry about rain.

Do you like the floor? The photo was taken in my former room; having seen the room empty today, I have to admit that I didn't value its beauty as much as I should have. But I am already enthusiastic about the new desk that I am typing these words on. The previous tenant had crafted it, and it neither wiggles nor wobbles whatsoever. Which in turn makes typing more pleasant. And I will frequently type during the next weeks, as I'm going to write my bachelor thesis at this desk.

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Facebook Adds Features to Groups for Selling and Buying

Speaking of market design, there might be a marketplace to be designed that is already taking shape in Facebook groups:

Starting today, Facebook’s For Sale Groups will have improved features for buying and selling. For Sale Group members can now choose the Sell feature when creating a post. You can add a description to what you’re selling, include a price and set a pick-up/delivery location.

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Kuchisake-onna Decision Tree

Try to find a dominant strategy for this quite unusual game.

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Corresponding to Joel Monegro's experience of using deep web marketplaces, two features of such markets were highlighted by Al Roth's Market Design blog: safety and anonymity. These characteristics had first been mentioned in a Bloomberg article describing the conviction against Ross William Ulbricht in the Silk Road trial. However, the article has been changed after Ulbricht was sentenced.

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Paying €12.99 for Spotify Premium

The two screenshots above tell a story of music streaming services, ease of use, and mobile first. As highlighted by the Top Grossing chart, Spotify is able to sell a considerable number of premium memberships through its iOS app; there are only ten apps that have a higher gross revenue in the German App Store. However, ranking eleventh surely isn't high enough to sustain the service that Spotify provides its users. Hopefully there are enough premium members who pay for their subscription not through the App Store, but rather by credit card on Spotify's website.

This only begs one question: Why does Spotify offer the subscription as an in-app purchase? After all, Apple demands a 30% cut of sales revenue due to the App Store's agency model. Other companies like Uber and Amazon charge their customers through their user accounts in order to avoid the fee. If the in-app subscription didn't exist, would some Spotify users not be willing to subscribe through the website? Is the conversion rate higher in the iOS app because the benefits of a premium membership are more apparent? Or do users find it so much easier to subscribe directly through the app?

Whatever might be the case, the user pays a premium: At least in Germany, an in-app subscription costs €12.99 per month, while the same membership, but purchased through Spotify's website, costs €9.99 per month. This is a yearly premium of €36. Yet Spotify doesn't receive this markup. Indeed, Spotify only receives €9.09 per month from an App Store subscription, still below the usual €9.99, even if one accounts for usual credit card fees. Spotify increased its price just enough to earn at least nearly the same revenue from an App Store subscription. Meanwhile, Apple earns €3.90 per month from a user who subscribes to Spotify through the iOS app, or close to €47 per year.

Then again, one might wonder which kind of user is willing to pay €3 more per month for the privilege of paying right in the app. The development of Spotify's in-app subscriptions becomes even more interesting as soon as the rumored Apple music subscription becomes available.

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The Best Thing About Snapchat

Good article by Katie Notopoulos about Snapchat that puts the new Discover feature into context.

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Microsoft Acquires Sunrise

Besides the various social media apps, Sunrise might be the third-party app I see most often on home screens of friends and other students. I hope they can continue their excellent work at Microsoft.

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Uber Is a Platform for the Future

Bill Gurley, member of Uber's board of directors, elaborates on what he calls the company's big hairy audacious goal: UberPool and the Perpetual Ride.

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AirBnB for the First Time

I have written about AirBnB, Uber, and the sharing economy before. Usually, I was commenting on services that I had never used, mostly because I don't live in San Francisco, and not even in one of Germany's most crowded cities. But when I planned my recent trip to Munich, I seized the opportunity to book a room through AirBnB.

This isn't supposed become a lengthy AirBnB review. But before you go, and if you've never used AirBnB before, let me just tell you that the onboarding and booking process is as comfortable as a mattress in a five-star hotel (I imagine such mattresses to be very comfortable). The website will walk you through all necessary steps, while you decide how fast you walk.

It is of course correct that AirBnB requires you to create a profile; however, while the profile is also used in order to build a community of hosts and guests, profiles enable you to contact a host and the booking process. Most hosts have created elaborate profiles to come across as credible and reliable. You don't have to do the same, but I guess it's of advantage, as hosts can reject you as their guest. At least you should provide them with background information about you and your travel interests when you approach them. After all, sharing a flat is based on trust on both sides.

Choosing a perfect room can be more of a challenge. But if you're not comfortable with creating a profile from the outset, you can start by searching the directory for a place you like. Only after I had found the place I wanted to book, I created my profile. As a newbie to AirBnB, I made sure my potential host had a variety of excellent reviews. Thankfully, former guests had mentioned the key delivery, or how talkative the host is--things that are of no concern when you book a hotel.

In the end, I stayed in a room in Munich's art district. If you're interested in visiting Munich, this is the place I chose. The furnishing is impressive--there was nothing better than to relax in the armchair for the day's last hour after walking from painting to painting in museums.

Wherever I travel next, hotels will have a hard time winning me over.