Who will relegate? A statistical analysis of the relegation struggle in the German Bundesliga 2015/16
With only two matchdays left, the relegation struggle in the German Bundesliga has become highly dramatic. Still, 8 out ouf the 18 teams are in danger of being relegated to the 2. Bundesliga. On Saturday, first decisison will be made, it`s the last call to do a statistical analysis on the topic!
Gunther Schauberger and Andreas Groll evaluated the chances of all 8 remaining teams in the relegation struggle of the German Bundesliga. In total, 12 matches remain where teams endangered in the relegation struggle are involved. Based on the distinction between victory of home teams, draws and victory of away teams, the 3^12=531441 possible scenarios were evaluated and weighted with probabilities according to bookmakers odds. The probabilities are spread over the teams as follows:
It turns out that Eintracht Frankfurt has the worst chances among all teams. Click here for the full report!