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Geopolitical Weekly: The Business Impact - 16 February

Analytical Insight provides a weekly overview of global geopolitical events and the potential impacts these events may have on business operations.

India - An Increasing Threat From Terrorism 

Key Points

The return of many jihad fighters from Afghanistan, combined with the formation of an Al-Qaeda affiliate group, Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), has increased the threat of terrorism in India, which will continue to increase in the forthcoming year. Business Continuity – The modus operandi of the returning jihad fighters is likely to be a large-scale attack, comparable to Mumbai 2008 or London 2005. Therefore, it is essential that businesses in India re-evaluate their business continuity plans to reflect this threat. The short-term business continuity issues in the wake of an attack are likely to include widespread city lockdown, closure of financial services such as the Bombay Stock Exchange, disruption to infrastructure and reduced staff access to sites. Companies with supply chains in India should re-visit their supply chain continuity plans.

Business Risk – Business risk is likely to be minimal in the immediate aftermath of an attack, however the medium-term impacts to businesses in India are likely to be more extensive. These impacts may include reduced investor confidence, withdrawal of foreign direct investment (FDI), increased insurance costs, diversion of government spending and stagnation of much needed economic reforms. The indirect business risk impact is likely to be significantly higher than the cost to businesses directly affected by an attack.

Security – Security costs in India will increase in the near-term as the threat of an attack becomes more prevalent.  Businesses should reconsider their security arrangements in light of the increased threat and ensure their security plans consider a potential large-scale attack.

Travel – India is assessed as a MODERATE WITH HIGH AREAS travel destination. Travellers to main cities should consider the increased threat of attacks, especially to tourist hotspots and Western hotels.  Security mitigation measures should be implemented

Background

The increased threat of terrorism in India is a result of two events. 1) Withdrawal of US troops in Afghanistan The withdrawal of troops in late 2014 has encouraged many fighters in Afghanistan to return to India to continue their jihad. These individuals will be highly trained, extremely radicalised, and will have strong networks for support both in and outside of India. This influx of returning fighters will increase both the capability and intent of current domestic cells already within the country.   2) Formation of Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) Al-Qaeda has recently extended its reach and formed a branch in India. This group is India-centric and focused on targeting Western interests within India. The group is formed of several jihad factions from within India, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent flag

The Business Impact

A large-scale terrorism attack in India would have both direct and indirect impacts to businesses operating within the country. Direct impacts would include:

damage to assets

loss of assets

restrictions to operations

injury or death of personnel

Businesses operating in India, especially Mumbai and New Delhi, should re-assess their security operation plans considering the increased threat. Businesses in close proximity of high-risk assets should consider increasing physical security measures in the short-to-medium term.  Businesses should also consider recovery sites away from large cities. Business continuity plans should be re-evaluated considering the increased threat, especially supply chain risk management plans for companies with critical processes in Mumbai and Delhi.

Indirect Impact

The indirect impact from a large-scale terrorist attack in India would be significant. The indirect costs of 9/11 are currently estimated at $3 trillion and climbing. Following a large-scale terrorist attack in India, the indirect impacts would include:

Increased insurance premiums

Increased physical security costs

Reduction in FDI

Decreased GDP

Increased government spending

Insurance

Following a large-scale terrorism attack in India, it is likely that insurance companies could inflate insurance premiums significantly. However, the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority is seeking to raise the terrorism risk pool in 2015. This should reduce inflated premiums in the event of an attack.,

Security

In the aftermath of a large-scale terrorist event, the perceived physical security risk increases significantly. While the true risk may not change, the need to mitigate the perceived risk remains important.

For companies that have offshore assets in India, the duty of care of the employer means that any expats or travellers to these locations must experience the same level of safety as they would conducting business in their home country. Additional security measures are required to mitigate any real or perceived threat, which can be costly.

In India, physical security should be exercised using a risk-based approach. Therefore as the risk or perceived risk from terrorism increases, the cost of security will increase too.

Foreign Direct Investment

In the aftermath of the Mumbai 2008 attacks, FDI was significantly affected. Investors pulled $13.5 billion from Indian stocks, which caused a 56% fall in the Bombay Stock Index. However, this impact is often only short-lived.

Decrease in GDP

Terrorism can affect GDP. This can be a knock-on effect from a decrease in FDI, reduced trade and changes in consumer patterns. Tourism accounts for approximately 10% of India’s GDP, and would suffer significantly in the aftermath of an attack, especially in the victim city.

Increased government spending

The Indian government would absorb the majority of the financial burden from terrorism. Therefore, much needed reform funds would be diverted away from infrastructure investments, social investments, education, healthcare and R&D. Legislative and political stalemate in the aftermath of a terrorist attack can cause issues for many businesses.

For further information on the potential impact to your business, contact a member of our Asia Analysis Team

Situation Update - Nigerian Elections

Key Points

Nigeria is set to face further political uncertainty as the presidential election is delayed until 28 March.

There is an increased threat of violent civil unrest in the near-term across parts of the country

Violent unrest following either party's victory is likely to intensify as election delays continue

Government officials are likely to embark on an intense campaign of intimidation, bribery and vote-rigging in an attempt to win the election

There is an increased possibility of a proxy coup led by senior military officials backed by the ruling government in a bid to buy time and  re-gain lost supporters

The Nigerian presidential elections were pushed back from 14 February to 28 March due to the ongoing conflict against Boko Haram in northern Nigeria. The government was unable to secure the polling process as many troops are currently in combat with the terrorist organisation. The delay of the presidential elections will further decrease the political stability in Nigeria. President Jonathan's desire to delay the polls is seen as a move to attempt to fraudulently secure a win by opposition supporters. The delay will increase political tensions and may lead to violent unrest in parts of the country. The delay may also be a result of the ruling People's Democratic Party’s (PDP) concerns that they have yet to secure the election. Officials and supporters of the government will likely engage on an intense six-week campaign to attempt to secure a win, including using bribery, intimidation and vote-rigging. Should this approach not be successful, it is possible that the PDP will coerce senior members of the military to lead a proxy coup that will be implemented under the guise of a security crisis. This will provide the current government more time to secure a win at a later election. For the potential election outcome scenarios click here

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Geopolitical Weekly: The Business Impact - 06 Feb

Analytical Insight provides a weekly overview of global geopolitical events and the potential impacts these events may have on business operations.

Thailand - The calm before the storm

Key Points Thailand may be facing a period of relative calm as martial law has cracked down on any form of political protest, however, this is merely increasing political polarisation and paving the way for Thailand to plunge into deep political turmoil again in the longer term.   

Near term - The calm before the storm The Military Junta is likely to remain in power for the next 8-12 months

Widespread political unrest is unlikely

Small acts of violence, such as the recent IED attack     at a luxury shopping mall in Bangkok, will likely increase in frequency

Despite the drop in oil prices, economic conditions     will likely deteriorate as the market remains sceptical that military rule     can maintain order

The Military will attempt to secure power through     removal of opposition leaders and key allies in all areas of government

It is likely the King will die and the less popular     Crown Prince will ascend to the throne

  Medium term - The return of political unrest In the medium to long term (12-18 months) a civil uprising against the unelected Junta will destabilise Thailand and plunge the country back into political uncertainty

Exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will     likely mobilise his red shirt supporters against the military rule     prompting widespread political protests and rallies

Political unrest will intensify, as the military     attempt to delay elections that will see the Junta lose any power it has     amassed

It is likely the Pheu Thai Party, backed by Thaksin,     will win elections should they be held during this period

Economic conditions will further deteriorate as political parties stagnate due to power struggles

Thailand’s complex Military – Government – Monarchy power triangle has produced cyclic periods of political unrest that have been widespread and violent in nature. The country’s democratic process is repeatedly challenged by the elite urban opposition and there have been 12 successful military coups since 1932. While political upheaval followed by military intervention is fast becoming ‘business as usual’ for Thailand, the next cycle of power struggles will likely be more intense and potentially more destabilising than those before.   The death of the much-loved King, and the succession of the unpopular Crown Prince will destabilise the monarchy side of the power triangle. While the military will seek to influence the royals, it is unlikely that the Crown Prince will act as a stabilizing influence for national stability like his father has. Exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's options are narrowing following the banning from politics of his sister,former Prime Minister, Yingluck Shinawatra. Thaksin will be left with little option but to mobalise his red shirt supporters to challenge the military Junta. This challenge will be met with opposition from the military supporting yellow shirts and will likely lead to widespread civil unrest. 

The Business Impact

Business operations in Thailand face long term uncertainty and business continuity issues. The economic conditions are also likely to deteriorate in the medium term as the ongoing power struggles prevent Thailand from reforming to manage its economic issues. The constant change of power will continue to hamper trade relations and put Thailand further behind its regional rivals in terms of trade agreements. The ongoing security issues will likely hamper Thailand’s prevalent and central tourism industry, especially as its neighbouring countries can expect periods of relative calm.

Businesses operating in Thailand should ensure their business continuity plans are robust, especially those with operations in Bangkok. Investors should expect further decreases in the markets as investor confidence drops. 

For further information on the potential impact to your business, contact a member of our South East Asia Analysis Team 

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Country Travel Risk Ratings - Feb 2015

Change Summary 

Saudi Arabia - Analytical Insight has raised the travel risk rating for Saudi Arabia from MODERATE to MODERATE WITH HIGH RISK AREAS. This is due to increased sectarian tensions in the Eastern Province and due to an increased threat from insurgency, especially close to borders

Venezuela - Analytical Insight has raised the travel risk rating for Venezuela from MODERATE WITH HIGH RISK AREAS to HIGH. This is due to increased political instability, an increased threat of violent unrest and increased levels of violent crime

Ukraine - Analytical Insight has raised the travel risk rating for the Ukraine from MODERATE WITH HIGH RISK AREAS to HIGH. This is due to the re-occurrence of intense fighting and indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas. Further violence is likely in the coming months

Travel Country Risk Map

Analytical Insight assesses country travel risk by evaluating the emerging and current threats in every country and identifies the potential risk to travellers from these threats. The themes covered in the risk rating include:

Terrorism

Political Unrest

War

Social Unrest

Crime (violent and petty)

Infrastructure Risk

Natural Hazard Risk

Download our latest travel risk ratings here

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Geopolitical Weekly - The Business Impact - 30 Jan

Analytical Insight provides a weekly overview of global geopolitical events and the potential impacts these events may have on business operations.

Venezuela Spring - An uprising is coming

Key Points Venezuela will likely see a large scale social uprising within the next six months. Low oil prices combined with deep-rooted social discontent could lead to a possible overthrow of Maduro’s government.  

Business Continuity – An uprising will lead to significant business disruptions including operation disruptions, logistics disruptions and service interruptions

Business Risk – A social uprising will likely be accompanied by high inflation and borrowing costs, arbitrary taxation for foreign and cash-rich industries, government expropriation for agricultural and food retailers and potential restricted access to hard currencies for particular sectors

Security - Large scale protests will further deteriorate the security situation and may result in widespread violence and damage to assets

Travel – Analytical Insight has raised its travel risk rating for Venezuela to HIGH from MODERATE WITH HIGH AREAS  

Venezuela is currently harbouring the perfect conditions for a large scale uprising comparable to the Arab Spring seen in 2011.The sharp downturn in global oil prices will continue to significantly affect Venezuela and increase the likelihood of a nationwide uprising. About half of Venezuela’s fiscal revenue and 96% of export revenue come from the oil industry. This sudden decrease in public revenue will curb social spending. A withdrawal of social spending funds will only further destabilise the discontented youth and increasingly despondent society.  As oil prices remain low, Venezuela will be unable to meet import costs for food and other necessary goods and will cause prices of stables to increase continuously. These factors will likely lead to increased discontent among the already disgruntled public and spur further uprisings, similar, albeit potentially more violent, to those seen in February 2014.

The Business Impact Businesses in Venezuela could see large scale disruptions to business operations in areas affected by protests. Disruptions will include staff inability to reach work, closure of premises, transport and logistic constraints and infrastructure interruptions including power and water interruptions. The government will seek to raise additional revenue through arbitrary taxation, especially of foreign entities and wealthy sectors. Business with existing contracts or in contract negotiations will likely face cancellation and amendment with little or no notice.  For further information on the potential impact to your business, contact a member of our Latin America Analysis Team 

Nigeria - a lose / lose forecast for business

Key Points

Nigeria is set to face a period of political instability following its 14 February Presidential election. While it is currently unclear whether the long serving government will retain power, what is evident is that this is a lose/lose situation for Nigeria in the short to medium term.

Business Continuity – Whether the ruling People’s Democratic Party or the opposing All Progressive Congress win power, the business environment will be disrupted by terrorism, social unrest and/or political deadlock either way. Businesses located in the north will be more affected should the PDP retain power. Conversely, businesses in the south will be at higher risk of business disruption in the event that the APC takes power

 Business Risks – If there is a change of government, businesses associated with Jonathan’s administration may face corruption probes, contract re-negotiation and investment disruptions. If the current party retain power, business will be affected by delayed reforms, economic downturn and reduced investor confidence

Security – Irrespective of who wins the February election, the security situation is likely to deteriorate. If the APC wins, insurgency in the Niger Delta is likely to increase and disrupt oil production. If the PDP retain power, they are unlikely to tackle Boko Haram. Unchallenged, the reach of its attacks is likely to spread south, potentially affecting business operations in Abuja and Lagos

Travel – Analytical Insight assesses the travel risk to Nigeria as HIGH – Travel to Nigeria should only occur with adequate security precautions

 For the first time since the end of military rule in 1999, the ruling People's Democratic Party - headed by Goodluck Jonathan - faces a real threat of losing power. In February 2013, the previously factious and weak opposition parties formed the All Progressive Congress (APC) coalition - led by Muhammadu Buhari - which could potentially replace the PDP in February. Depending on the outcome of the presidential election, the forecast for Nigeria changes significantly, however neither scenario provides an environment conducive to business.  

The Business Impact

People's Democratic Party Victory

Violent unrest - The last time Buhari lost in an election, his loyal northern supporters held violent protests resulting in 800 deaths; it is assessed that should Buhari lose to Jonathan, especially if there is a strong perception of election fraud, then violent reactions throughout the north are highly likely

Boko Haram advances south – Jonathan has been reluctant to manage insurgency issues in northern Nigeria, where he has very little economic or political interest. If Jonathan wins another term, it is likely that Boko Haram will remain unchallenged and continue to hold several regions in the north. In coming months the terrorist group may also begin an assault towards the south – the threat of attacks in Abuja and Lagos would increase

Political stalemate – The APC has vowed to form a parallel government in the event of a PDP win, an opposition of this nature would lead to political stalemate and economic stagnation

Investment disruption – Unless sovereign agencies can agree on a rating for the country under further PDP leadership, investment disruption is probable and may result in a loss of investor confidence

Contract validity – The PDP will need Western governments to endorse their win to ensure contracts signed with the PDP are not weakened legitimately and legally in Western countries in the event of cancellation or non-payment

All Progressive Congress Victory

Rise of insurgency in the Niger Delta – In the event of an APC win, there would likely be violent outbreaks and increased insurgency in the southern Niger Delta. Former militant leaders located in the region have vowed to keep Jonathan in power at any cost. An increase insurgency in this region will likely affect oil production and heavily affect the oil sector

Corruption probes – Buhari has previously pushed for anti-corruption campaigns in his former government roles. Businesses with direct contracts with the PDP may face contract cancellation and non-payment in the event of involvement in a corruption probe. It is likely that the APC will begin anti-corruption probes upon succession to power. Any anti-corruption drive is likely to lead to political stalemate as government officials seek to protect their assets gained through corrupt means

Contract validity – The APC will need Western governments to endorse their win to ensure contracts signed with the APC are not weakened legitimately and legally in Western countries in the event of cancellation or non-payment

Impact from oil price  Regardless of the election outcome, low global oil prices will force government spending to be curbed. The government depends greatly on its oil reserves for its budget. This is likely to lead to:

Currency risks -  the niara has already suffered since the dramatic fall  in price of oil in recent months

Inability to import food and petroleum goods - as the value of the naira falls, Nigeria will be less capable of important much needed goods such as food and other staples

Violent unrest - unrest is likely as the public react to  high domestic fuel prices. It is unlikely domestic fuel will be reduced in the short term as either government will struggle to maintain a budget

View our Nigeria Country Risk Snapshot for more information on the other risks associated within businesses operating in Nigeria.

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Geopolitical Weekly - The Business Impact - Jan 23

Analytical Insight provides a weekly overview of global geopolitical events and the potential impacts these events may have on business operations.

The Changing Face of Terrorism

The recent Parisian attacks on satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo are a solemn reminder of the persistent threat that exists from people acting in the name of terrorism. Although these attacks were inspired by the ideology of extremist Islam, they were neither orchestrated, nor financed by established terrorism groups.  These attacks, along with the Sydney Siege and the Canadian Shooting are an increasing and concerning new modus operandi – The Lone Wolf Attack.

2014 had 60% more lone wolf attacks than any other year since 9/11. While these attacks do not cause mass casualties or catastrophic destruction, they spread terror and fear by demonstrating the reach of extremism and also the everydayness of targets against the fight for jihad. Anyone can become a victim of terrorism, at anytime, anywhere. 

The Business Impact

Physical Risk - While the risk to business from terrorism in general may not have changed, the nature of the threat and the required response has. The likelihood of a large-scale terrorist attack has been reduced by effective counter-terrorism measures, however, the likelihood of a lone wolf or a small scale terrorist attack has increased.   The reach of the threat has also increased beyond high risk locations and through to all corners of the world. Businesses across the globe, no matter how big or small, should be prepared to be directly or indirectly affected by lone wolf terrorism.  Businesses should ensure they have effective security plans, response plans and continued awareness of the threat terrorism poses to their business operations.   Economic Risk – It is unlikely that lone wolf attacks will affect the economic conditions in the same way large scale attacks can. The cost of lone wolf attacks are negligible and are unlikely to affect the planned spending of the government, FDI or insurance rates. This stability will prevent economic downturn and market fluctuations post a lone wolf attack.

Get a free Terrorism Risk Assessment for your business here

A Game of Thrones

Today, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia died at the age of 90. Crown Prince Salman has taken the throne.

There has been much contention surrounding the succession of the Crown Prince upon Salman’s succession to King. King Abdullah had named his youngest brother, and last in the fraternal succession line, Muqrin as Salman’s successor. This appointment was to ensure there wasn't a power vacuum in the event of both Abdullah’s and Salman’s deaths. Salman has been quick to announce Muqrin as his heir in a statement released by the palace today, however the appointment to Crown Prince will need to be agreed by the Al Saud family Allegiance Council.   The Business Impact Political Stability - The succession of the throne was always going to be contentious as factions of the ruling Al Saud party fight to maintain power and control.  Salman’s announcement of his immediate succession will reduce any immediate concerns of political instability and reduce the risk of economic reactions in response to the death of the King. However, as Muqrin is the last in the fraternal succession line, King Salman will need to establish a new succession plan and name a new Deputy Crown Prince. This is likely to cause increased internal factions within the Al Saud family and may lead to a period of political stalemate.  This may cause longer term issues including a deterioration in regional relations and a reduction in investor confidence. Security Threat - The death of King Abdullah comes at a time of heightened security for Saudi Arabia. Increased Islamic insurgency within the Kingdom, cross-border spillover from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the ongoing threat from ISIS in Iraq present significant threats to the security situation within the country. The potential lengthy maneuver of power between the successors could hamper the country’s ability to respond to these threats in the short term. Businesses operating in Saudi Arabia should ensure they fully understand the magnitude of the current threats and have adequate security measures in place to mitigate the risk to business operations. Civil Unrest – There has been an underlying tension in Saudi Arabia since the outbreak of the Arab Spring. Shiite Muslims, who have complained about religious discrimination and economic marginalisation for several decades, may use this perceived weakness in rule to express their discontent with current conditions. There have also been tensions among the Saudi youth in response to inflation and high levels of unemployment. While it was unlikely the public would rebel against King Abdullah, due to his popularity, it is possible the transition of power will prompt a response from the disenfranchised members of society. Businesses operating in Saudi Arabia should monitor the situation closely over the coming months, and ensure they have business continuity, security and extraction plans in place in the event of an uprising. While the threat of this is currently low, the situation may escalate rapidly as seen in other countries in the region in previous years. If you would like further information on the situation in Saudi Arabia, contact a member of our Middle East Analysis Team.

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What Is The Real Impact To Your Business From Terrorism?

The threat from terrorism has changed dramatically in recent years. No longer is the ideology of Jihad confined to the radicalized youth of the Middle East, instead, the ideology itself - and its spread via social media - has changed terrorism across the world.  The hierarchal structure of pre 9/11 Al-Qai’da no longer exists, lone wolf attacks present the highest terrorism threat and homegrown terrorism has erupted across the globe.

As the threat from terrorism changes, is your business keeping up with the changing landscape and is the impact from terrorism to your business really understood?

The impacts of terrorism can be broadly divided into two areas;

As we know, the direct impact of terrorism can be catastrophic, but the reality is that the risk of a terrorist attack leading to incapacitating damage is negligible for most businesses.

The majority of business risk from terrorism sits in the indirect impact areas. These impacts are often neglected by businesses, yet these impacts can cause significant damage and losses if not monitored and mitigated.

Our chart below can help you begin to understand the potential impacts that terrorism may present to your business. 

Direct Impact

Terrorism can have a significant direct impact for businesses with assets, operations or personnel in High Risk Terrorism locations.  The main risks are;

damage to assets

loss of assets

restrictions to operations

injury or death of personnel

While the impact of a terrorist attack can vary significantly from business to business, it is uniformly paramount that businesses facing a direct impact from terrorism mitigate the risk to protect their assets, operations and personnel.

Indirect Impact

The indirect impact from terrorism is complex and nearly impossible to estimate. However, the indirect cost from terrorism can be up to 20 times larger than the direct cost.

 Indirect cost can include:

Increased insurance premiums

Increased security costs

Reduction in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Changes to consumer behaviour

Decreased GDP

Increased government spending

Insurance

Following a large-scale terrorist attack, insurance premiums can increase significantly. Post 9/11 insurance premiums for large infrastructure in the United States skyrocketed. Insurers increased Chicago’s O'Hare Airport’s premium from $125,000 to $6.9 million. 

A significant increase in insurance premiums may severely affect a business and force a change of operating location. Some countries such as Australia, the UK, France, the US and Germany all now have Terrorism Risk Insurance Acts or similar policies that reduce inflated premiums, however this is not the case for most countries around the world.

Security

In the aftermath of a large-scale terrorist attack or persistent low level terrorism campaigns, the perceived physical security risk increases significantly. While the true risk may not change, the need to mitigate the perceived risk remains important.

For companies that have offshore assets in HTR locations, the duty of care of the employer means that any expats or travellers to these locations must experience the same level of safety as they would conducting business in their home country. Additional security measures are require to mitigate any real or perceived threat, which can be costly.

In HTR location, physical security should be exercised using a risk based approach. Therefore as the risk from terrorism increases, the cost of security will increase too.

Foreign Direct Investment

The effect of terrorism is not uniform for FDI. The modus operandi of the terrorist group has significant impact to the effect on FDI. Large-scale catastrophic attacks generally have little or no effect on FDI, whereas small-scale persistent campaigns can affect FDI significantly.

FDI was only slightly affected after 9/11 and actually increased in Spain post the 2005 Madrid bombing.

However, in Nigeria, the rise of Boko Haram caused FDI to decrease by $6.1 billion in 2010 when the group began its campaign. This decrease has continued and the FDI has decreased from 5% (2010) to 1% (2014). Compared to neighbouring countries, such as Benin, this decrease is not consistent with FDI changes in the region.

Changes to consumer behaviour

After a terrorist attack, or during an ongoing terrorism campaign, consumers change their behaviour in response to the change in threat. People invest more money into insurance and protection, which as a result diverts funds from other areas. In the early aftermath of a large-scale terrorist attack, fear of a repeat attack can prevent consumers from spending or engaging in social activity, which has an immediate, albeit short lived, effect on the economy.

Decrease GDP

Terrorism can affect GDP. This can be a knock-on effect from a decrease in FDI, reduced trade and changes in consumer patterns. In Colombia, there is an inverse correlation between terrorist activity and GDP. While not all changes can be directly attributed to terrorism, the strong correlation shows how terrorism can affect the economy.

Increase government spending

In general, the government absorbs most of the financial burden from terrorism. Therefore, in the aftermath of a terrorist attack, funds are diverted away from infrastructure investments, social investments, education, healthcare and R&D. Legislative and political stalemate in the aftermath of a terrorist attack can cause issues for many businesses.

Applying a three layered approach to terrorism is an effective and robust way to protect your business from the constantly changing threats it faces.

For a FREE Terrorism Risk Assessment for your business, contact one of our qualified analysts – [email protected]

Our Terrorism Risk Assessments analyses the potential direct and indirect impacts your business may currently face and threats you may face in the future as the world of terrorism continues to change.

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Global anti-capitalism protests planned for 5th November

On 5th November, anti-capitalist marches will be held across the globe as part of activist group Anonymous’s “Million mask March”” Last year, these marches attracted crowds in the low hundreds and caused traffic disruptions. It is expected that most protests will remain peaceful, however there is a possibility that protests may turn violent and require police intervention. Avoid these protests and allow extra time for travel if you are travelling through the vicinity of a protest. Below are the location of the major protests. Times are local Australia Adelaide: Victoria Square at 16.00 Brisbane: Emma Miller Place at 15.00 Hobart: Parliament House Lawns at 12.00 Melbourne: State Library of Victoria at 14.00 Newcastle: Civic Park from 17.00 to 18.00 Perth: Cultural Centre Garden at 13.00 and Russell Square Park at 18.00 Sydney: Martin Place at 13.00 and Wynyard station at 12.00 Austria Vienna: Wien Mitte-Landstraßse at 16.00 Belgium Brussels: Grand Place at 12.00 Brazil Salvador: Iguatemi shopping centre from 17.00 to 21.00 Chile Santiago: Plaza Italia at 18.00 Colombia Bogota: Plaza de Bolivar at 12.30 Egypt Alexandria: Ibrahimia at 18.00 Finland Helsinki: Senate Square at 18.00 Germany Berlin: Brandenburg Gate at 18.00 Hungary Budapest: From Gellért tér to Szabadság tér from 18.00 to 20.00 Iceland Reykjavik: Reykjayik city hall at 08.00 Ireland Dublin: Four Courts from 10.30 to 22.00 Italy Rome: Piazza del Popolo at 15.00 Lebanon Beirut: At the waterfront from 07.00 to 13.00, and the city centre at 18.00 Netherlands Amsterdam: Dam Square from 14.00 to 20.00 New Zealand Auckland: Aotea Square at 12.00 Christchurch: From the vicinity of the New Bus Exchange to the City Council building at 15.30 Wellington: Bucket Fountain at 12.00 Romania Bucharest: Piața Constituției at 07.00 Serbia Belgrade: Pionirski Park from 18.00 to 20.00 Slovakia Bratislava: Hodžovo námestie at 14.00 Spain Barcelona: From La Sagra Familia to Parque de la Ciudadela Madrid: Puerta del Sol from 18.00 to 23.00 Sweden Stockholm: Humlegården at 16.00 Switzerland Bern: Bundesplatz at 19.00 Tunisia Tunis: Théatre Municipale De Tunis at 10.00 Turkey Istanbul: Taksim Tunel at 19.30 UK Aberdeen: Duthie Park at 12.00 Belfast: Belfast City Hall at 18.00 Birmingham: Birmingham Town Hall at 18.00 Edinburgh: From Edinburgh Castle to Scottish Parliament building at 18.00 Glasgow: George Square from 18.30 to 19.30 London: Trafalgar Square at 18.00 Manchester: Piccadilly Gardens at 18.00

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Travel Risk Rating Quarterly Update

Understanding the risk you face when travelling is paramount to a safe trip. Analytical Insight rates every country in the world with respect to travel risk. We amend our risk rating quarterly and also in an ad hoc manner.  Our risk ratings take into consideration many threats including:

Crime

Terrorism

Social Unrest

Political Unrest

War

Kidnap

Detention

Infrastructure

Espionage

  Changes

We have increased the risk rating for Ukraine from MODERATE to MODERATE WITH HIGH RISK AREAS

We have increased the risk rating for Burkina Faso from MODERATE WITH HIGH RISK AREAS to HIGH

We have increased the risk rating for El Salvador from MODERATE WITH HIGH RISK AREAS to HIGH

View our latest travel risk ratings here 

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Situation Report: Shooting in Thai Capital reinforces the ongoing risk to travellers to Bangkok

A fatal shooting near the anti-government protest site in Bangkok reinforces the risk to travellers from incidental violence in Bangkok. 

 On 15 April, a security guard for the anti-government protestors was shot by an assailant near Lumphini Park. This incident highlights the ongoing and significant risk that travellers to Bangkok face from incident injury.

 The anti-government protests continue in Bangkok with an estimated 5000 protesters camped in the city park.

 Travel to Thailand can and should continue, however it is strongly advised that travellers have their itineraries assessed to ensure they do not expose themselves to the risk of incidental injury or death.

 Download our FREE Travel Security Advice for more information on these protests and security advice for travellers. 

 For up to date information - follow us on Twitter - An_In_Thai

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Situation Update: Venezuela Political Unrest

The ongoing violent protests recently seen in Venezuela are likely to continue in the near-term, despite President Maduro's proposed talks with the opposition.President Maduro has scheduled talks with the opposition for 10 April.

 However it is assessed that these talks will do little to resolve the ongoing violent unrest that has unfolded across the country since Early February.It is advised that all non-essential travel be postponed until further notice. Essential travel should be undertaken with caution and travellers should minimise their movements when in-country.

 Since early February, Venezuela has been affected by violent protests between pro-government supporters and anti-government opposition activists. These protests are likely to continue in the near-term. Protests are held on a near-daily basis through the country including in the capital Caracas.

Violence between the opposition activists and security forces or pro-government supporters has been increasing and the use of firearms is now commonplace.There have been nearly 40 reported deaths and over 550 injured protestors.

Stay updated by following AIinteligence on Twitter - #An_in_Venezuela

 For more information download our FREE Security Advice For Venezuela

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Seven of the most dangerous cities in the world will host World Cup Games in Brazil

The Global Homicide Report - released by the UN – has identified that 11 of the 30 most dangerous cities in the world are in Brazil.

  Seven of these cities will host FIFA World Cup games during the forthcoming tournament.

These cities are:

Fortaleza

Natal

Salvador

Cuiabá

Manau

Recife

Belo Horizonte

  Travellers to these cities face significant risk from violent and opportunistic crime such as mugging, bag snatching, armed-robbery, sexual assault and murder. It is imperative that travellers to these cities fully understand the risks they face and ensure they receive adequate travel security advice prior to departure.

 Read more about the top threats to travellers to the FIFA World Cup HERE

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Is A Judicial Coup On The Cards For Thailand?

On 2 April, the Constitutional Court accepted a petition for the removal of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. The petition – filed by the anti-government Yellow Shirts – relates to the removal of then National Security Council leader Thawil Pliensri.

  It is currently unclear as to whether the court will action this petition, however, the removal of the prime minister and her government through a judicial coup would cause widespread protest from the supporting Red Shirts. The repercussions of such a move would likely be momentous and the resulting uproar from pro-government and pro-democracy supporters would likely be the largest seen in many years.

  If you are travelling to Thailand in the coming months, it is essential that you monitor the situation as a court decision could significantly destabilize the security situation in Bangkok and throughout Thailand in a matter of hours.

  Keep up-to-date on the latest developments by following our Bangkok Political Crisis feed on Twitter@AIintelligence #An_In_Thai

  You can also download a travel security guide eBook with useful security information for travellers to Thailand during periods of political instability. Download here

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Red Shirts Vs Yellow Shirts: Protests Ramp Up Again

The political unrest in Bangkok is likely to increase again after several weeks of calm. Pro-government supporters(Red Shirts) have announced a large-scale rally on 5th April. The location and time have yet to be specified.

The anti-goverment Yellow Shirts have step up their protests campaign with daily protests planned for the remained of the week and a larger protest to be held on the 29th March. It is estimated that 10,000 protestors will attend. 

  For travel security advice click here 

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Bangkok Travel Advice

Travelling to Bangkok?

Anti-government rallies and protests will continue to disrupt Bangkok, despite the consolidation of protests sites across the city. The Yellow Shirts are adamant that this consolidation isn’t a retreat, and they will continue to march across the city, targeting official government buildings and any business affiliated with Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

The threat level in Bangkok is currently elevated to HIGH due to persistent and ongoing political unrest occurring within the city. The threat is expected to increase in the forthcoming weeks, however the situation is likely to resolve in the medium term.

With the use of gun fire and grenades becoming commonplace across the city the biggest threat to travellers in Bangkok during this period of unrest is collateral damage from a violent protest and interruptions to itineraries due to transport and logistical issues.

If you are travelling to Bangkok during this period of political instability, stay safe and download this report.

It provides:

an assessment of the current threat in Bangkok

an overview of the current situation

a look forward at the short term outlook

travel security advice and recommendations

contact information if you need to call for help

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Recognising Corporate Espionage While Travelling

Espionage occupies a unique and somewhat glamorous place in the public imagination. However, the reality couldn’t be further from this perception. An effective economic espionage operation is not only costly to the victim corporation, but can also severely damage business and international ties.

  Corporate espionage is an increasingly prevalent threat for business travellers. In many countries the activities of the government intelligence services extend to collecting intelligence that will strategically benefit their business community.

  Below are my five top tips to mitigate the risk from corporate espionage:

  Acknowledge: The single most important preventative measure against corporate espionage is accepting and acknowledging espionage occurs, and anyone can fall victim to it

Reduce Sensitive Material: If travelling to a country that is high-risk with respect to espionage, it should be assumed that any information – electronic or paperbased - will be read, copied and stored. While it is nearly impossible to identify whether the information has been accessed, assuming all materials will be read reduces the risk of loss of sensitive information

Be Discreet: When travelling, be discreet about work and personal information. This information can be used to socially engineer or extract sensitive information from you at a later stage by foreign players

Understand Conversations Are Not Private: When travelling to a high-risk country be aware that your conversations may not be private, even if taken in a private surrounding such as a hotel room or office. Sensitive conversations should occur once you return to your home country

Don’t Use Shared Computers: Be wary of using shared computers, such as those provided in airport lounges, internet cafes and hotel lobbies. All activity on these computers may be recorded, stored and used as intelligence or used to gain further information in the future

  For further information download this FREE report: Recognising Corporate Espionage While Travelling. This high-level report identifies how to mitigate against the threat from corporate espionage, identify actors of espionage and indicators that may suggest you have been targeted.

  For more information regarding corporate espionage, download a Travel Security Insight eBook for the country you are traveling to. Our Travel Security Insights highlight the key risks presented to travellers while in country. The e-books are location-specific with respect to risk rating and provide detailed threat analysis, risk mitigation recommendations, security contact details and up-to-date information on emerging situations.

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My Top Five Travel Tips for 2014

In late 2013, James* - an investment banker from London  - sat in his chauffeur driven car in traffic in Johannesburg.  He opened his window to get some fresh air and allow himself to think about the meeting he was travelling to. While lost in thought about his upcoming presentation, James noticed a man standing next to his car.  In the man’s hand was a gun. The man - a local - held the gun through James’ window and demanded James hand over his wallet, phone and laptop. He also took James’ watch and briefcase for good measure.

 Luckily James was not shot, however, the situation could have been completely avoided if James had received adequate travel security advice prior to his trip.

While James had acceptable physical security in place – a chauffeur driven car and a high security hotel etc. – James had not been briefed on the specific local threats in Johannesburg.

Rule 101: Don’t open your car window in Johannesburg – unless you want to get robbed.

While most business trips pass without incident, travelling to unfamiliar places always poses an increased risk for travellers.

Basic rules and principles apply no matter what your level of experience or where you are travelling. Below are my top 5 travel safety tips all travellers should know.

1 - Be Alert: All environments present different risks. The key is to remain alert so you can identify emerging threats and respond accordingly.  

While this may seem like common sense, when reviewing incidents involving business travellers, it is incredible how many start with the line “I was out jogging and listening to my iPod, when all of a sudden….” or “Suddenly out of nowhere…”. Clearly these individuals were not alert at the time of the incident.

Many travellers may stay alert in situations they perceive as dangerous, such as while out at night or in busy tourist areas, however travellers often drop their guard when engaging in activities they are familiar with such as running, sitting in a car or walking across a city.  Staying alert when in a foreign environment is crucial to allow the brain enough time to recognize a threat, process the impact, devise an escape and implement a plan. I will cover this further in a later blog.

2 - Be Inconspicuous: Criminals or terrorists are more likely to target ostentatious individuals and foreigners. To reduce this risk, keep a low profile and look confident when in public. Don’t make yourself an easy target.

Even if you are dressed appropriately and feel like you blend in, it is very easy for locals to notice someone who is different. Looking confident will reduce your likelihood of being targeted, as will having a sound knowledge of the route you are taking and the local area.

3 - Be Unpredictable: Criminals and terrorists favour victims with predictable routines. Vary your day-to-day routine to reduce the chances of being targeted.

Many crimes are opportunistic by nature, however some more serious crimes and attacks are premeditated. While travelling, following a routine can make you an easy target for perpetrators.  If you walk down the same street every night after work, then criminals can target you in a predetermined spot with a good escape route. Routine gives the criminals an upper hand.

4 - Layered Security Protection: No single security measure will provide complete protection. To reduce your exposure to foreign threats, use a layered protection approach.

A layered protection approach involves using various security approaches together i.e. combining physical security measures (locking bags, using hotel safes or armed guards) with threat-based measures (avoiding high crime areas and gaining knowledge of local threats) and with situational alertness (remaining alert to be able to identify emerging threats). For more information on a layered security approach view here.

5 - Know Whom To Call: Before you depart on business travel, make sure you have your corporate security hotline and local consulate number stored on you.

It can be stored on your phone, written down in your wallet and saved on your PC/tablet. The more places you have it the better. Ensure you know how to dial out from the country you are travelling to before your leave.

For further information download Analytical Insight’s Security Passport: Business Traveller Advice. This FREE report provides high-level security advice for business people travelling to foreign countries. It aims to highlight security issues that business travellers may encounter and provide advice on how to stay safe.

While having a generic understanding about how to lower the risks posed by business travel is an essential tool for any traveller, knowing the specific threats that are present in the area you are travelling to and how to mitigate against these threats is paramount for safe travel.

  .

* Real name not used for privacy reasons

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The current political unrest in Bangkok increases the security risk for business travellers. The below infographic details 8 travel safety tips that anyone travelling to Bangkok should adhere to.