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Nāgārjuna stated: "To whomever emptiness is possible, all things are possible. To whomever emptiness is not possible, nothing is possible."
July 21, 2026
Early in his second term, Trump ran roughshod over the Constitution and the rule of law largely by force of will. Courts struggled to keep up; shell-shocked agencies and federal employees backpedaled as DOGE changed the locks and stripped users of their credentials without any authority to do so. Trump withheld money appropriated by Congress and dared his party to do something about it. (They didn’t.) There was an air of inevitability and unstoppable momentum that emboldened Trump to take ever more outrageous actions.
No more. The illusion of invincibility is gone. Trump is weak and in trouble. He is a liability to Republicans running for office. Over the weekend, he became a global joke as he tried to bask in the reflected glory of Spain’s World Cup victory. And now, his ill-conceived war is going so badly that the Pentagon is concealing the number of US injuries, and the Houthi rebels are threatening Saudi Arabia’s shipping lanes in the Red Sea—its back-up route for oil exports given Iran’s stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s response to the crisis is to announce a 50% tariff on goods imported into the US from Canada—effectively a tax on US retail consumers.
Why does this matter? It matters because a major part of Trump’s act is to convince people that he can get away with outrageous actions because he is too powerful to be stopped. If Trump is seen as a weak, ineffective loser, he will receive less deference in the media (right-wing and mainstream), GOP members at risk will feel freer to create distance between themselves and Trump, and (crucially) persuadable independents will be less likely to support a candidate whom they once believed was a no-nonsense businessman who would “fix” the nation with his business acumen and negotiating skills.
There should be no joy in recounting Trump’s troubles because they are (ultimately) our troubles. It is our lives that are negatively affected by Trump’s reckless wars, foreign policy blunders, and international humiliation. But Trump’s mounting troubles also make him weaker and give us firmer ground to stop his plans to interfere in the 2026 election. A weak, unpopular strongman is more easily defeated in the courts and in the streets than an autocrat who enjoys widespread support.
So, in recounting Trump’s deepening crises, the point is not to gloat but to recognize them as opportunities for us to convince others to join us in a historic rebuke of the president’s party.
Read on!
Iran war expanding and spinning out of control
The Iran war is going so badly for the US that the Pentagon has not held a press briefing about the war since May. Worse, the Pentagon has concealed the number of soldiers injured in the war. See WaPo, Nearly 100 U.S. troops injured in last two weeks of Iran war, Pentagon says. (Gift article, accessible to all.)
When the Department of Defense spokesperson was called out by the press over the failure to report injuries, Sean Parnell’s first reaction was to rationalize the omission:
They are determined to get back in the fight. The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions.
Parnell dismissed traumatic brain injuries caused by missile blasts as “minor concussions”—a category that describes injuries that are not immediately life-threatening but can nonetheless lead to long-term symptoms. “[T]here is no such thing as a minor concussion.” See American Association of Neurological Surgeons, Concussion.
After Parnell’s statement acknowledging the undisclosed injuries, the Pentagon updated an online database to include the injuries not previously disclosed—only to reverse the update a few hours later and remove the newly disclosed injuries. See WaPo article, above. (“But with no explanation from the Pentagon, the database later reverted Monday night to the earlier numbers.”)
It is apparent that the Pentagon has been caught in the act of concealment, and the question of how to handle its deceit is roiling the military’s senior ranks. My guess is that military commanders want to be transparent, but Trump is pushing back by arguing that concussions are not serious injuries—a claim he made in 2020. See Military.com, (Jan. 22, 2020), President Trump Downplays Severity of Troops’ Head Injuries After Iranian Attack. (Trump said members treated for concussion symptoms after Iranian airstrikes earlier this month had “headaches,” adding it was “not very serious.”)
When Trump dismissed traumatic brain injuries caused by an Iranian missile attack on a US base at Ain al-Asad Air Base in Iraq, his comment drew the ire of thousands of service members diagnosed with traumatic brain injury. Per the Military.com article above, the Veterans of Foreign Wars demanded that Trump apologize. He did not. Instead, he doubled down, saying of the al-Asad attack, “there was nobody hurt other than the sound was loud.”
In Trump’s apparent effort to conceal the true extent of injuries to US troops, he is dismissing the nature and severity of blast injuries during battle suffered by American soldiers. This story is just going to get worse for Trump—as it should. His comments are disgraceful and disrespectful.
But it gets worse for Trump. The Houthi rebels in Yemen announced that they would close Saudi Arabia’s shipping lanes through the Red Sea (and the Bab el-Mandeb strait). When Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia shifted its seaborne oil exports to the Red Sea. By closing Saudi Arabia’s backup route, the Houthis (and Iran) are stepping up economic pressure on Saudi Arabia and the US (which will feel the pressure in the form of higher gas prices). See CNBC, Iran’s Houthi allies declare maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, escalating threat to oil market.
Per CNBC,
The Saudis have diverted million of barrels of oil per day through a pipeline to an export terminal on the Red Sea. Those exports have acted as a crucial relief valve for global oil markets during the U.S.-Iran war. A closure of Bab el-Mandeb would block in those barrels, exacerbating the disruption triggered by Iran’s attacks on tankers in Hormuz.
As of Monday evening, oil markets have discounted the Houthi threat, leaving the price of a barrel at about $90. But if the Houthis fire upon or hit a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea, the damage to the global economy will be significant. See Reuters, Explainer - How a Houthi blockade in the Red Sea tightens Iran’s grip on global energy supplies.
Per Reuters,
After the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, and Israel’s devastating campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians. The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa — a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.
So, the Houthi threat is serious.
One final note about the predicament that Trump has created for himself (and us). The military needs an infusion of money to keep up its war against Iran. But the 2026 budget and appropriations have been enacted. Speaker Mike Johnson is therefore trying to pass a third “reconciliation bill” that will give the Defense Department another $60 billion to fund the war in Iran. See Breaking Defense, House GOP releases ‘Reconciliation 3.0’ with $60B for defense.
It is questionable whether the bill will make it through the House—Johnson has a margin of just a few votes (two or three, depending on which source you believe). But if it does, it faces an exceedingly difficult path through the Senate—where a handful of Republican Senators face tough re-election campaigns and a highly unpopular war. See Federal News Network, Senate pans House plan, leaving next steps uncertain.
Per the FNN article above,
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said senators have “a lot of questions” about it – from defense hawks concerned about the military to deficit hawks who want to offset costs. “It’s a very uneven path,” he said. “We’ll see what the House can execute on,” he said, but “I can’t make any guarantees over here.”
One complicating factor: Speaker Mike Johnson will slip in the SAVE America Act to secure votes from a handful of extreme right members. But the SAVE Act must be stripped out in the Senate to avoid the filibuster. As before, Senate Republicans will attempt to convince the Parliamentarian that the SAVE America Act is a budgetary item, a claim the Parliamentarian has already rejected.
So, if you hear breathless reporting about the House passing the SAVE America Act (again), remember that there are not 60 votes in the Senate to pass the Act.
Concluding Thoughts
I spent most of the day on the road, so I am signing off here to meet my self-imposed publication deadline of midnight. Here’s the takeaway: As Trump’s problems compound, two things happen: He becomes more desperate, and he becomes weaker.
Trump’s crises create opportunities for us to attack Republicans, who are (so far) sticking with Trump all the way. Mike Johnson is demanding that every House Republican pass additional funding for the most unpopular war since polling began. See Responsible Statecraft, The Iran war is the most unpopular major conflict in US history.
The chaos of war virtually ensures that more bad news is on its way. I dearly hope I am wrong. But as the sudden intervention of the Houthis demonstrates, Trump no longer has control of events in his war against Iran. While we should hope for a swift peace, we must not be bystanders to Trump’s reckless actions. We must help end the war by convincing voters that Republicans cannot be trusted to rein in Trump—and that Democrats can.
Beautiful song of Shiva from Balochistan!🔥
Picture : Noemia Prada The fleeting nature of life intrigues me. Intriguing beacause I know how short it is, how easily it all can end. Time is something we never truly possess, something we can never control. It simply keeps moving, carrying us with it. Our priorities should be simple: to care for others, to care for ourselves, to love, to be truthful, and to remain authentic. Yet sometimes those are the hardest things to do. A search for peace with the passing of time, with absence, with goodbyes, with longing, and, ultimately, with ourselves. C'est la vie
The demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots. The demaslave is one who listens to what these idiots have to say and pretends to believe it himself.
—H L Mencken, Notes on Democracy (1926)
[h/t Scott Horton]
* * * *
“He allowed people to express their racism and bigotry in a way that they haven’t been able to in quite a while and they really love him for that. It’s a shocking thing to realise people love their hatred more than they care about their own actual lives. The hatred – what is that about? It’s a fear of your own weakness.” ― Fran Lebowitz
“De-Americanization”: How Donald Trump has (accidentally) made the world a better place
~ Editorial, The Globe and Mail, 15 July
Acts of aggression that produce the very opposite of their intent have become a hallmark of Donald Trump’s second presidency. Mr. Trump believes U.S. military and economic might are so great that he can dictate terms to the world. But he has left his country weaker. While campaigning for a second term as president, Mr. Trump famously promised that he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. He clearly favoured Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, even though Mr. Putin had invaded Ukraine for no purpose other than conquest.
Mr. Trump and Vice-President JD Vance publicly berated Mr. Zelensky in front of journalists during an ugly confrontation in the Oval Office in February, 2025. “You don’t have the cards,” Mr. Trump told the Ukrainian President, urging a ceasefire that would be favourable to Russia. Less than a year and a half later, the Russian offensive appears to have stalled, even as Ukrainian drones and missiles wreak havoc on energy installations in Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Ukraine now possesses “the strongest, most powerful armed forces in all of Europe.” Last week, Mr. Trump met with and once again berated his NATO allies. Since his first presidency, he has made it clear that the United States might not come to Europe’s defence were it to be attacked by Russia, on the grounds that many of its members were failing to pull their own weight. They’re pulling now. All NATO military members are spending at least 2 per cent of GDP on defence, with expenditures in many countries, including Canada, climbing higher. It is entirely possible now to imagine a NATO that can defend itself without the United States. And every other member of NATO has flatly rejected Mr. Trump’s demand that Denmark cede Greenland to the United States.
Mr. Trump thought he could eliminate trade deficits and reshore manufacturing by slapping tariffs on imports. This simply encouraged other countries to diversify trade. The Canadian government is committed to doubling trade with countries outside the U.S. over the course of the next decade. Several agreements are already in place, including an EVs-for-canola swap with China, and officials hope to have agreements with India, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Mercosur, a South American trade bloc, signed by the end of this year.
And Mr. Trump’s declaration that Canada could avoid tariffs by becoming “our beautiful, treasured 51st state” has left elbows-up patriots promoting national pride. Canada is largely boycotting the sale of American beer, wine and spirits, while travel to the United States has sharply declined.
In attacking Iran in February, the U.S. President thought that he could decapitate the leadership, end any threat of the country acquiring nuclear weapons and perhaps prompt a successful uprising leading to regime change. Instead, the mullahs and Revolutionary Guard remain in charge, the uranium stockpile remains intact and Tehran is attempting to control passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
And in the latest of his many debacles, Mr. Trump sought to overturn the red card suspension of American footballer Folarin Balogun in advance of the sudden-death World Cup game between the United States and Belgium. A FIFA disciplinary committee did suspend the suspension, to the outrage of Belgian officials and millions of soccer fans, but no avail, as Belgium crushed the U.S. team 4-1. Mr. Trump’s efforts served only to discredit himself and FIFA.
All of these reversals have resulted in a new word: de-Americanization, which refers to the efforts of America’s allies and other nations to insulate themselves from an increasingly insular and aggressive United States government. In his landmark Davos speech in January, Prime Minister Mark Carney implicitly warned that the changes in Washington are to some extent permanent, and that middle powers should work together to preserve the Western alliance.
In an odd way, the 47th President has been a tremendous asset to Canada and the world. He has bolstered European solidarity and support for Ukraine, strengthened NATO, encouraged Canada to diversify its economy and increase its defences, while bolstering trade and collective security among and between Atlantic and Pacific nations. Donald Trump has, unintentionally, made the world a better place for many countries. Just not his own.
So in a peculiar way, the fact that Trump is back to bombing Iran is really bad news, not because of the bombs. Yes, it’s terrible and all that, But not because I have any real fear that America is going to be at risk from a foreign power, but because I think it signals an enormous risk to us from our own president, our own government.
Be afraid, be very afraid.
Paul Krugman
“US weapons systems are not made to be able to win in battle. They are made to deliver maximum profits to the weapons makers.”
— America cannot shoot its way out of decline
The Calm Before the Storm by Sonia Lera Preston