Blurbistan: The Stories That Matter

What's happening and why it matters

[blurbistan]

Afghanistan Digest | 31 Jan 2014 Edition

Digest of the day's top stories

1. Afghan Roads Falling Apart

They look like victims of an insurgent attack — their limbs in need of amputation, their skulls cracked — but the patients who pour daily into the Ghazni Provincial Hospital are casualties of another Afghan crisis.

They are motorists who drove on the road network built by the U.S. government and other Western donors — a $4 billion project that was once a symbol of promise in post-Taliban Afghanistan but is now falling apart.

Western officials say the Afghan government is unable to maintain even a fraction of the roads and highways constructed since 2001, when the country had less than 50 miles of paved roads. The deterioration has hurt commerce and slowed military operations. In many places, the roads once deemed the hallmark of America’s development effort have turned into death traps, full of cars careening into massive bomb-blast craters or sliding off crumbling pavement.

Why This Matters

The issue here is that the United States put a ton of capital investment into the Afghan road network. What it did not plan for was maintenance funding, or the ability of the Afghan government to develop the ability to pick up their own mainteance costs for the thousands of kilometers of road that the Americans and other donors built. So the American taxpayers paid for them, and the Afghan people don't benefit from them. The most likely solution here is going to be a fresh infusion of funds for those maintenance costs. Not as alarming as it sounds, and in the best interests of both American investment and Afghanistan. 

2. Hagel Not Happy with Karzai's Delay

U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has expressed his impatience with a delay by the Afghan president in signing an agreement that permits U.S. troops to stay in Afghanistan beyond this year.

"You can’t just keep deferring and deferring," Hagel told reporters late on January 29, when commenting on President Hamid Karzai's reluctance to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA).

Hagel said the BSA needs to be signed soon "because at some point the realities of planning and budgeting and all that is required collide.

Why This Matters

This isn't nearly as alarming as some observers are going to make it. It's indicative that the Obama administration isn't terribly happy with Karzai, but this isn't a threat of increased likelihood of the zero option for US troops. All of that combined with the strong likelihood that the Americans have already made a deal on the BSA without Karzai, and this is just another round of the Transition Theater of the Absurd. 

3. Spanta thinks US needs to pick a side

The U.S. must choose between having Afghanistan or Pakistan as a strategic partner before Kabul is willing to sign the Bilateral Security Agrement (BSA), Afghan National Security Advisor Dr. Rangeen Dadfar Spanta said on Thursday.

Dr. Spanta emphasized that the U.S. knows Pakistan is the main "obstacle" to the Afghan government's peace talks with the Taliban, yet refuses to acknowledge it.

"The United States is trying to tell the world and the people of Afghanistan that both the wolf and the sheep are their strategic friends," Dr. Spanta said. "Afghanistan's Southern and Eastern borders have been under attack for years, and those who are under attack are our women and children."

Why This Matters

Post elections, Spanta may still be around, and still be someone the United States will need to deal with after Karzai's gone. This is not a choice that the US is going to make: Pakistan in many ways is a more viable strategic partner (albeit a shaky one) when it comes to US plans for the region, but there are still US interests to be served in the Afghan equation, as well. This narrative will probably be around for a long time to come. 

[blurbistan]

Afghanistan Digest | 30 Jan 14 Edition

Digest of the day's top stories

1. Afghans Can't Be Trusted with Money

With billions of dollars in American aid increasingly flowing straight into Afghan government coffers, the United States hired two global auditing firms three years ago to determine whether Afghanistan could be trusted to safeguard the money.

The findings were so dire that American officials fought to keep them private. But the money has continued to flow, despite warnings from the auditors that none of the 16 Afghan ministries could be counted on to keep the funds from being stolen or wasted.

The problems unearthed by the auditors are detailed in a report to be published Thursday by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, an American government watchdog. The findings raise new questions about the efficacy and wisdom of giving huge amounts of aid directly to a government known for corruption.

Why This Matters

The call has gone out to increasingly put money into the Afghan budget, vs. having donors continue to spend funds outside of the Afghan system of governance. If the report turns out to be accurate (keeping in mind that the SIGAR isn't the most objective of offices), then it's likely going to make it that much more difficult to justify continued foreign aid. For a country where 95% of its GDP comes from foreign donors, that's going to be a problem. 

2. Afghans pay attention to the SOTU

In Afghanistan weeks of bitter rows between the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, and US diplomats left many people concerned that Barack Obama would use his state of the union speech to row away from long-term support for their country.

"For me, over the last 12 years … this is the most well-known [state of the union] speech among Afghan people," said Abdul Waheed Wafa, director of the Afghanistan Centre at Kabul University. Even people who knew little about US politics were waiting to hear from Obama, he added.

"Two or three days ago I was at the barber shop and the barber was asking me: 'Hey, I hear there is a big jirga [traditional gathering of leaders] in the US. People are talking about it.'"

Why This Matters

It's a bit of a feel-good article, but it underscores the fact that the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) signing matters to Afghans more than it does to Americans. They're worried what the possible withdrawal of foreign troops could mean for both security and financial support for the developing Afghan government. It's a non-pragmatic response on my part, but at some level we need to take care of our obligations to the Afghan people, not just think about our own foreign policy aims. 

3. Afghan satellite headed for space

A satellite providing communication and internet services directly to Afghanistan will be placed in the country's space orbit for the next five years, after an agreement between the IT and Communication Ministry and the Eutelsat satellite company, promising telecommunication services in remote areas of the country in the future.

The satellite, named "Afghan Sat One," has already been put in space by Eutelsat Communications and only needs to be placed at 48 degrees east for Afghanistan.

"This satellite has been in space for the past 10 years and has another 5 years left," said Ameerzai Sangeen, the IT and Communication Minister. "The agreement is that, after five years, another satellite will be thrown into space and it will be named Afghan Sat Two."

Why This Matters

This kind of cross-border cooperation on key initiatives like telecommunications are what's going to ensure that Afghanistan does not slide back into whatever it was before the Americans showed up in 2001. It's a small step for man, etc., but it's a tangible indication of the international community's interest in the future of Afghanistan. The more investment that can be tied to this place without being connected to defense spending, the better.

[blurbistan]

Afghanistan Digest | 17 Jan 14 Edition

Digest of the day's top stories

1. Joe "Zero Option" Biden Unhappy

Vice President Joe Biden has resumed a push to withdraw virtually all U.S. troops from Afghanistan at year's end, arguing for a far-smaller presence than many military officers would like to see, said officials briefed on the discussions.

The White House convened a meeting of top national-security officials on Thursday to discuss the war and the future of the U.S. troop presence.

Mr. Biden has lost previous debates on Afghanistan, but his arguments for a smaller force, likely of 2,000 to 3,000 troops, have gained traction within an administration increasingly frustrated by Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Mr. Karzai has refused to sign a security agreement allowing American forces to remain in small numbers after the North Atlantic Treaty Organization mission there formally ends this year.

Why This Matters

I myself was a "zero option" proponent (or at least a proponent of its likelihood) this time last year. Since then I've come to the conclusion that the United States, for a variety of reasons, isn't going to go that route. If we were, and we were serious about it, we'd have made that announcement sometime right after the beginning of the new year. This matters because it shows that the Obama administration is still willing to push and push hard on Karzai to get this thing signed. Pressure is increasing, not only from the US and NATO, but from Afghan presidential candidates as well. I don't think Karzai's time is terribly short to put his Hamid Hancock on the document, but I also don't think this is going to drag on for a lot of months. 

2. Taliban know less about winning than ISAF

The Taliban militants group in Afghanistan eyes to return to power following the withdrawal of the NATO-led coalition security forces from the country.

Taliban group spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid has told BBC that the group is “confident of victory” over the NATO-led forces in Afghanistan.

Mujahid further added that Taliban is in control of large areas of the country and the operations of the NATO forces are limited within the vicinity of their bases only as they are scared to leave their bases.

Why This Matters

The Taliban don't have the forces necessary to pull of a full-scale takeover of Afghanistan. They've been reduced to magnet bombs and IEDs rather than force-on-force engagements that would allow them to definitively overthrow the government in Kabul. It's posturing, but it's not pure bluster: the Taliban do (and will) control a lot of areas outside of the better secured urban areas. That will still make life difficult for Afghan forces, but not impossible.

3. Bowe Bergdahl still alive

U.S. military officials say they have obtained new video of U.S. soldier Bowe Bergdahl, who was taken captive in Afghanistan more than four years ago. Officials say the video was taken recently and shows Bergdahl to be frail and in poor health. 

Taliban group spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid has told BBC that the group is “confident of victory” over the NATO-led forces in Afghanistan.

Why This Matters

We need to put the kind of resources we put toward finding UBL to getting this kid home. I know that's not rational, pragmatic, or logical. I could care less. "Leave no man behind": if we truly believe that, let's go get him. 

Photo: AFP/Getty Images

[blurbistan]

Afghanistan Digest | 16 Jan 14 Edition

Digest of the day's top stories

1. Afghanistan to host Cypress Hill reunion tour

Despite a $7 billion effort to eradicate opium production in Afghanistan, poppy cultivation there is at its highest level since the U.S. invasion more than a decade ago, sparking corruption, criminal gangs and providing the insurgency with hard cash, says John Sopko, the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction.

In testimony before the Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control, he warns Wednesday that Afghanistan could degenerate into a narco-criminal state.

"The situation in Afghanistan is dire with little prospect for improvement in 2014 or beyond," Sopko says. "Afghan farmers are growing more opium poppies today than at any time in their modern history."

Why This Matters

It matters because the outcry around this announcement shows the usual misunderstandings about agriculture, survival, and filling the gaps in a national economy. The international approach to poppy eradication and the substition of other cultivated crops has been uneven at best, and this is the latest salvo in the Sopko's Greatest Hits: The I Told You So Years.  Had an interesting Twitter conversation with someone who's a lot smarter than me on Afghanistan, and their take was that the current rates being paid for poppy can't be sustained, and we're probably looking at a bit of a "poppy bubble." Couple that with the fact that Afghanistan already has a ridiculously healthy criminal subculture, and more opium isn't going to turn that into some kind of narco-terror state. 

Oh, and they're going to fight this drug war from Bahrain from now on. 

Now, if they can just manage to pay the cops, this will be a full on win. 

2. Back to school with the Taliban

When the Taliban banned girls from going to school in the 1990s, Mullah Wakil Ahmad Muttawakil served as the regime's foreign minister.

Now, Mr. Muttawakil's daughter attends a school in Kabul—one he set up. "She is in second grade and is one of the top students in her class," he said proudly, adding that he often helps with homework.

She is one of roughly 250 girls enrolled at the school he opened three years ago along with other former senior Taliban officials who have adopted a more moderate stance in recent years.

Why This Matters

Expect more stories like this as we move ahead into this year and the next. While the Afghan Analysts Network has reported on this phenomenon previously, this kind of mainstream media coverage of these stories is encouraging. The question we need to be asking is whether these particular Taliban are actually going to be able to broker any kind of deals long-term, or if their current approach will be nullified should the Taliban share power in the future. It shows a great deal of pragmatism, which is encouraging as we look ahead into the future of this country. 

3. Another magnet bomb in Kabul

A high-intensity bomb attached to a police vehicle went off on Thursday in the first municipality district of Kabul city, but no immediate reports about casualties could be ascertained, an official said.

Why This Matters

There seems to be an increase in these particular IEDs, which is both disconcerting (since sticky bombs) and encouraging (they're not trying to kill a whole bunch of people. Direct assassinations are less messy, but still a problem given that the insurgency continues to target security forces even in the capital. Expect to see more of these, as the insurgency has to rely increasingly on more sophisticated (but less tricky logistically) approaches to deal with Afghan forces. 

Photo: Andrew Burton/Getty Images

[blurbistan]

Afghanistan Digest | 15 Jan 14 Edition

Digest of the day's top stories

1. She may not get paid, but she'd on the job

A woman has been appointed as a district police chief for the first time in Afghanistan.

The Interior Ministry named Colonel Jamila Bayaz on January 14 as head of Kabul's District 1, a business and government administration district in the old-city neighborhood.

She is the first woman to become a district police chief in Afghanistan, where less than 1 percent of police officers are women.

Why This Matters

Women in law enforcement (or any branch of the security services) here in Afghanistan are particularly targeted by insurgent attacks. This is especially true for women in positions of any kind of authority in those services. Sure, it's Kabul, and what works in Kabul isn't necessarily going to fly in Kandahar, but it's a visible, positive step in the right direction. 

Now, if they can just manage to pay the cops, this will be a full on win. 

2. Afghan football gets its feet cut out from under it

Despite the unprecedented success of Afghan football in 2013, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) has reportedly allocated a menial budget for the Afghan Football Federation (AFF) in its draft budget for 2014.

The head of Parliament's Committee on Health, Sport, Youth, and Labor, Naqibullah Faeeq, said on Tuesday that the entire normal budget for the AFF in 2014 would only be 700,000 USD, with no additional development budget.

Faeeq was critical of the budget draft, expressing concern that it would not be enough to sustain the national team program, let alone improve it.

Why This Matters

Afghanistan's showing in the SAFF this past year was the kind of progress that means things are changing for the better. Sure, it's just football (actually, it's soccer, since football's something else entirely less nap-inducing), but getting kids interested in sports, and sports played by Afghans, is another building block toward long-term not-war in Afghanistan. Sure, the ministreis are going to have to make some tough decisions in the years ahead as aid dollars begin to taper off, but this should not be the first thing to go. 

3. Guards "recognize" bomber, shoot him dead

A suicide bomber was shot dead by Afghan security forces in capital Kabul on Tuesday evening. According to Kabul security officials, the suspected suicide bomber was shot dead on Darul Aman road near the 6th district police station, around 6pm local time.

Najibullah Danish, deputy spokesman for the interior ministry of Afghanistan, said the suicide bomber was looking to attack a tribal elder, Mohammad Alam.

Kabul police chief, Gen. Zahir said the suicide bomber was recognized by the security guards of Mohammad Alam and was shot dead before he manage to detonate his explosives.

Why This Matters

Given the challenges in using the English language that Khaama has now and then (even though they're a rock solid source for news here), I'm guessing that they didn't "recognize" him, but understood that he was a suicide bomber, and so they shot him. This matters because this was the private security guards of someone with influence. Whether he was targeted because they were sent by insurgents or because he pissed someone off is anybody's guess. But the fact that unofficial security guards continue to operate within Kabul's confines is a little troubling. 

Photo: TOLO News

[blurbistan]

Afghanistan Digest | 14 Jan 14 Edition

Digest of the day's top stories

1. Whatever you do to the police, please pay them

Outgunned by the Taliban and often derided by some as little more than uniformed thieves, police officers in Afghanistan do not have an easy job. But in recent months, their lives have gotten even tougher: Afghanistan’s police officers have not been paid since November, and some have not seen a paycheck since October.

The government has the money, which comes from the United States and its NATO allies, but the Interior Ministry, which oversees the police, missed a deadline for filing the necessary forms with the Finance Ministry, said Afghan officials interviewed Sunday. The back salaries will be paid in the next few days, the officials said, playing down the issue as a minor administrative mix-up.

Why This Matters

It's 2014. The Americans haven't even left yet. And they're so far behind the power curve that they're not aware of the fact that nearly half of the country's security forces have not been paid. For months. I know that this is going to be spun as "Afghans in the lead," but how hard is it to find out if someone's gotten a paycheck?

For more on this, check out Kevin Seiff's piece on the most honest man in Afghanistan. The man's worked for years, and hasn't gotten a pay raise. How much longer can he stay honest? 

2. There is no God but Allah, unless you're an atheist

An Afghan man is believed to have become the first atheist to be granted asylum in the UK on the basis of his views on religion.

The 23-year-old, who has not been identified, feared that if forcibly returned to his homeland he would face persecution for having renounced his faith.

The Home Office's decision to accept denial of the existence of God as grounds for protection could set a significant precedent in asylum and immigration cases. The application was granted before the hearing stage at an immigration tribunal.

Why This Matters

If nothing else, it's an interesting shift from the usual rough-to-read stories of people schlepping their way to foreign shores on overloaded boats. What's not clear yet is whether this will lead to any other similar claims beingn made by asylum seekers. It's one of the few times when being from a religiously fundamental country works in your favor. Like Texas. 

3. Security concerns close over 72 polling centers in Helmand

Details of a security report on polling centres for the spring Afghan elections show that 175 polling centres out of 414 to remain closed on the election day are in only three provinces in south and western Afghanistan.

In Helmand province alone, 72 polling stations out of 214 suggested by the Independent Election Commission (IEC) were turned down by Afghanistan's security agencies because of insurgent control of the districts in question, according to documents received by TOLO News on Monday.

Why This Matters

If there's a single place in Afghanistan that probably needs something resembling a civil government, my vote's with Helmand. The fact that only three provinces account for so many of the closed centers is more than a little disconcerting. While I still say that fraud, not security, is going to be the biggest challenge to the elections this year, insecure locations will obviously still play a part. 

Photo: Mauricio Lima for The New York Times

[blurbistan]

Afghanistan Digest | 06 Jan 14 Edition

Digest of the day's top stories

For those of you just joining us at home, the idea was simple: pick the top 3 stories from various places on the planet, as selected by people who are either sitting there or who know the area well. Then put those up on the site. I've been remiss on keeping up with this, and hey, if you're interested, jump on in. Maybe someday we'll all make money at this. 

1. Afghan Taliban Suspect Kabul of Targeting Them in Pakistan

Two senior Afghan Taliban commanders were killed in recent days in Pakistan, in what the insurgent group suspects is an unfolding cross-border assassination campaign run by Kabul's security operatives.

The killings, in the volatile western city of Quetta, could demonstrate a new capability of Afghan security forces to work inside Pakistani territory. They could also further complicate efforts to persuade the insurgent group to enter peace talks.

Why This Matters

If nothing else, it shows that, at least in the Taliban's mind, that the NDS is reaching back across the Pakistan border to deal with Taliban leaders in that country. This is a significant shift from the whole "the ISI does all the bad" in Afghanistan rhetoric. It also makes it complicated to hold talks with said Taliban. Which, frankly, I'm pretty sure are dead in the water anyway. 

2. Drug trade could splinter Afghanistan

Afghanistan's booming narcotics trade risks splintering the country into a "fragmented, criminal state" if the government and its western allies do not step up efforts to tackle opium production and the illicit economy it supports, a senior UN official warned.

Opium farming in Afghanistan, the world's main producer of the drug, hit a record high last year, with farmers harvesting a crop worth nearly $1bn (£610m) to them, and far more to the traffickers who take about four-fifths of the profit.

Why This Matters

Much has been made in the hand-wringing department about the fact that security is going to be...challenging...post 2014. What hasn't been discussed as often is the splintering along criminal lines. There has been conversation around opium (mainly: it bad, wheat good), but not as much about what the criminal elements firmly entrenched in Afghanistan are going to do once the US withdraws its forces. Afghanistan faces a likely breakdown in centralized government, which, given how corrupt all things Kabul are, may not ultimately be a bad. thing. 

3. Karzai Media Advisor Encourages Uprising, Criticizes Media

Dr. Muhammad Hashem Esmat Ilahi, the media advisor to President Karzai, has said that just as the uprising against the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan is a point of national pride, so too should it be against the Americans, and went on to call a number of Afghan media outlets irreligious.

Ilahi made his comments at a conference put on this week by an Iran-based organization. He said that since overthrowing the Taliban in 2001, the U.S. has targeted religion in Afghanistan and has worked to deny people of their religion.

Why This Matters

The man is playing to his audience, but coming from Karzai's media advisor, this is only slightly less savvy than racists tweets before you get on a plane. Not that he's in danger of losing his job, but in a climate where the American government is weighing its post '14 options, this may not be the best idea right now. Not that anyone in the US cares enough about the war to really pay attention to what Ilahi's saying, though. 

Photo: Rahmat Gul/AP

[blurbistan]

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[blurbistan]

Afghanistan Digest | 10/06/2013 edition

Digest of the day's top 3 stories. 

1. 7 more launch quest for presidency

Seven more candidates, including influential political figures, registered their names for next year's presidential polls, taking the number of runners to 16 on Sunday -- the last day of the three-week registration campaign.

Six runners Dr. Ashraf Ghani, President Hamid Karzai’s brother Qayyum Karzai, ex-foreign minister Zalmai Rassoul, Mohammad Nader Naeem, Hamidullah Qadiri and Daud Sultanzoy filed their nomination papers.

Accompanied by dozens of supporters, including MPs and members of the Right and Justice party, Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai filed his nomination papers with the Independent Elections Commission (IEC) in the morning.

Why This Matters

Now the fun really starts for the Afghan election campaign: now that everyone that's going to has thrown their hat officialiy into the ring, expect this field of 16 to get whittle down pretty quickly. For a particularly awful rundown of some of the candidates, there's this from the AFP. 

2. NATO Official Confirms Coalition Role in Security for Elections

Maurits R. Jochems, NATO's Senior Civilian Representative in Afghanistan, confirmed to TOLOnews that NATO would support Afghan forces in providing security for the upcoming elections and would be involved in transporting ballots to the capital for counting.

"The elections are of course Afghan led and Afghan owned as it should be, but we have a supporting role in the security of the elections," Mr. Jochems said. "For example, when there is not enough airlift capacity...to bring results of the votes to the capital or back, then NATO can assist with the airlift."

Why This Matters

There's a lot of noise lately around the "zero option," but that isn't going to have an effect on the elections, even if (as some worry) they're delayed longer than April. NATO is committed to doing what it can to ensure this election isn't nearly as much of a FUBAR as the last one, and they're fully aware of how limited the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are in their ability to secure the Afghan countryside during that period.  

3. Four ISAF Soldiers Killed in Southern Afghanistan

International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) officials on Sunday confirmed the deaths of four service members in southern Kandahar province. According to local provincial officials, the soldiers were killed by a roadside bomb while on patrol.

"Four ISAF soldiers died following a direct fire attack in Southern Afghanistan today (Sunday) when they were patrolling in Southern Afghanistan," ISAF said in a statement.

ISAF did not provide more details about the exact location of the incident and nationality of the soldiers. However, local provincial officials have said that the four men were Americans and were killed early Sunday morning by a roadside bomb placed by the Taliban.

Why This Matters

Simply put, this kind of thing hasn't happened in a while, and that's a wonderful thing. That's what make this noteworthy, as ISAF continues to make sure Afghans are in the lead, that this kind of thing still, on these sad occasions, will take place. War is costly, and no greater cost than in the lives it takes. 

(Image via Wikimedia)

[blurbistan]

Afghanistan Digest | 5 October 2013 edition

Today's top 3 stories in Afghanistan

1. Norway Cutting Aid to Afghanistan

Norway will slightly reduce its aid to Afghanistan from next year, signaling to Kabul that it has not done enough to combat corruption and violence against women, the foreign ministry said on Friday.

"We are deeply concerned about the widespread violence against women in Afghanistan," Foreign Ministry State Secretary Torgeir Larsen said in a statement.

He said the Afghan authorities had failed to submit a report on the problem that they had promised by July.

Norway had pledged 750 million crowns ($126 million) a year to Afghanistan through 2017 but will reduce that to 700 million crowns next year because of what it said was Kabul's failure to meet its commitments.

Norway is one of the world's biggest foreign aid donors and plans to spend around $5 billion on assistance in dozens of developing countries this year.

Why This Matters

It's not that much of a reduction, and in the overall aid bucket that continues to dump money into Afghanistan, it's barely a trickle. But it's a sign of possible reductions to come. I for one am not holding my breath regarding any kind of massive reductions in aid until the US starts doing something similar. 

2. Impasse With Afghanistan Raises Prospect of Total U.S. Withdrawal in 2014

The United States and Afghanistan have reached an impasse in their talks over the role that American forces will play here beyond next year, officials from both countries say, raising the distinct possibility of a total withdrawal — an outcome that the Pentagon’s top military commanders dismissed just months ago.

Why This Matters

This is one of the few times where "I told you so" is not going to give me any kind of satisfaction, but I raised this distinct possibility of the "Afghanistan zero" option at the beginning of the year. That being said, it's possible this is just more brinksmanship, but there seems to be greater impetus behind a full withdrawal at this point. Given the uncertainties of the presidential election here, a total withdrawal would not surprise me in the slightest. 

3. Taliban Targeted Prince Harry

From the moment he set foot in Afghanistan, Prince Harry became the No1 target for the fanatical fighters of the Taliban.

Rebel leaders were determined to take him out or capture him in a move that would have sent shockwaves around the world.

And there were “many” desperate plots to breach security surrounding the young royal, the Mirror can reveal following a secret interview with a veteran Taliban commander.

Speaking at a heavily guarded compound near Peshawar, North West Pakistan, Qari Nasrullah told how the warlords repeatedly tried to get Harry in their sights.

He said: “When your Prince came here and flew his Apache helicopter and bombarded the Mujahideen [holy warriors] it meant that our fighters did not exactly have a soft spot for him.

“As far as the Mujahideen were concerned he was just an ordinary soldier who was fighting for America. This is how we view him. He may well be a Prince in Britain, but to us he is merely a common soldier.”

He added: “There were many plans to capture him but – maybe it was his good luck – he managed to escape.”

Why This Matters

It doesn't matter, really. Sometimes I can be lazy. This would be one of those times. Plus, it's alway interesting to read accounts of Taliban interviews. Assuming, of course, this guy is actually Taliban. Which, probably is, so...here ya go. 

(Photo -- Reuters/Omar Sobhani)

[blurbistan]

Afghanistan Digest | 04 October 2013, ed.

Today's top 3 stories out of Afghanistan

1. Former Afghan Warlords Announce Joint Ticket For 2014 Election

Two former Afghan warlords have announced that they will share a ballot - one running for president, the other for vice president - in next year's elections. Abdul Rab Rasoul Sayyaf, an influential lawmaker and religious scholar, registered his candidacy for the presidency on Thursday. "I am hopeful that the nation will decide wisely and that their decision will lead to a prosperous future, which will ensure the honor and pride of this nation in this world and the world after," said Sayyaf.

Another former warlord, Ismail Khan, who previously has served as energy and water minister, said he will run to be Sayyaf's first vice-president in the April 5 vote.

Why This Matters

Abdul Sayyaf does enjoy the support of a significant portion of the Afghan population, given his history leading the fight against the Russians. Unfortunately, given his ties to Al Qaeda, a Sayyaf presidency has the strong likelihood of leading to massive reductions in foreign aid funds. But, the weekend's still ahead, and other candidates, who might enjoy an even stronger popular base, have yet to register for this election.  

2. We will unite all Afghans, says Taliban chief

A Taliban chief has told a British newspaper that the fundamentalist group is preparing to run Afghanistan when Nato forces leave.

In an interview with the Daily Mirror, the man, using the pseudonym Qari Nasrullah, said: "In Afghanistan, praise be to God, we are heading towards success. We are approaching total success as most of the country is now under our control.

"Our fighters have had huge successes with many attacks. We will be victorious. Once foreign forces have been exiled we foresee success. God willing, when Nato leaves it will be as it was before... the Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan."

Why This Matters

Truly remarkable level of bluster from a group has not enjoyed a significant tactical victory ever since the US first entered Afghanistan after 9/11. What makes it noteworthy is that the group continues to persist in the myth that they will emerge triumphant. What's in significant doubt is what this means, if anything, for future peace negotiations here. 

3. Afghanistan Qualifies for Cricket World Cup

War-weary Afghanistan has achieved one of its finest sporting moments by qualifying for its first cricket World Cup.

The Afghans defeated Kenya by seven wickets on Friday in the last qualifying match.

Afghanistan finished second behind Ireland in qualifying, with both teams advancing automatically to the 2015 World Cup in Australia and New Zealand.

Why This Matters

Let there be sport: even though I will never, ever understand the appeal of cricket, nicely done. This kind of international connection can only be a good thing as the international community continues its withdrawal of significant aid and forces in Afghanistan. 

(Photo via tribune.com) 

[blurbistan]

Lebanon Top News | 9/4/13

The daily roundup of the top 3 news stories in Lebanon

Minkara after His Release Urges Dialogue with Rafehi, Says Gharib Retracted All Confessions

After his release from detention on Wednesday, Sheikh Hashem Minkara announced that Sheikh Ahmed al-Gharib, the first suspect arrested over the Tripoli blasts, has retracted all his confessions, calling for a dialogue conference with Salafist cleric Sheikh Salem al-Rafehi.

Addressing rival Sunni scholars, the cleric added: “No matter how much you disagree with me, Sayyed Hassan is the ultimate leader of resistance in our Levantine countries.”

Why it matters: First its interesting to get a glimpse of the type of old-school cronies Assad still has in his pocket in Lebanon.  Minkara beats his chest for Syria and Nasrallah the moment he gets out of jail despite being suspected of a crime.  Secondly it’s slightly unusual that Minkara is walking on bail after the dispute between judges, keeping a measure of peace in Tripoli will likely hinge on the ability of the court to bring a case against the right suspects. The case has gone exceptionally fast and if it falls apart and there’s no conviction, as with most large- political crimes, it doesn’t bode well for the northern city.

Private sector strikes in parts of Lebanon, warns of escalation

BEIRUT: Big businesses and banks observed a one-day strike in different parts of Lebanon Wednesday to protest a collapsing economy as the private sector warned of further action if officials fail to form a new government.

“We will adopt escalatory steps in the event a government is not formed,” said Adnan Qassar, head of the Economic Committees, which called for Wednesday’s strike

Why it matters: All of Lebanon is on strike. Now it’s the private sector, the public sector already has the ball rolling. Economic investment stopped, so has tourism. Artists are cancelling shows and politicians aren’t showing up for meetings. In Lebanon’s search for its identity it is intermission and the next act seems a long way from starting.

Lebanon charges 14 in rocket attack

BEIRUT: Fourteen people, including Lebanese and Syrians, were charged Wednesday in the investigation of a rocket attack this summer that struck power lines in Aley.

A judicial source said Military Prosecutor Saqr Saqr filed charges against the men, seven of whom are in custody, including two Lebanese and five Syrians.

Why it matters: Its bizarre that with so many unsolved crimes police have been able to track down people responsible for a politically motivated rocketing in June, and not just one or two suspects but 14! And a mixture of Lebanese and Syrians of course. The process will be interesting to follow, but smacks of a ‘round em up boys’ campaign to try and contain strife.

Photo from Naharnet

[blurbistan]

Lebanon Top News | 9/3/13

The daily roundup of the top 3 news stories in Lebanon

Hezbollah chief discusses Syria with Iran's Boroujerdi

BEIRUT: Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah discussed an anticipated U.S.-led military strike on Syria with a senior Iranian official, a statement from the Lebanese party said Tuesday.

Why it matters: This was likely the most important meeting that took place in the Middle East today and maybe the most important one on Syria. How Iran-Hezbollah responds to what now seem to be imminent air strikes from the U.S. and a Western coalition will determine the shape of the pending conflict. Their options range from a full assault on Israel and the U.S. destroyers (from Syria or Lebanon, to a token face saving response or none whatsoever.  What’s at stake is a regional war, and how Iran perceives the threat to Syria and Hezbollah and the entire affair is very important for the region and for Lebanon. Best case is they let take its lumps and respond to attacks on its own, worst case is mobilizing its sophisticated network of military operations forces around the globe.

Future decries Hezbollah security measures

BEIRUT: The Future bloc condemned Tuesday Hezbollah’s tight security measures in parts of the country and the party’s recent detention of Saudi diplomats, saying their actions damage ties between Lebanon and Arab states.

Why it matters: The backdrop in Lebanon to all of this is that the country is entirely unprepared to handle the coming wave of spill over from whatever happens in Syria. The political climate is poisonous and is the farthest away from reconciliation is has been since probably the civil war. Even basic mechanisms like a show Cabinet or National Dialogue are not existent, and major parties have dug them deeply into a hole of non-negotiation and “principled” stands. When the spillover comes from the strikes (if they happen) it will be entirely every party and sect for itself.

Lebanon importers to suspend fuel deliveries Sept. 4

BEIRUT: Oil importers will stop delivering fuel across Lebanon on Wednesday but gas stations will individually decide on whether to join the strike planned by private sector associations, associations announced on Tuesday.

Why it matters: If you weren’t already convinced of the soured badness of Lebanon’s domestic scene, a possible fuel strike can be the cherry on top of the Sundae.

Photo from The Daily Star 

[blurbistan]

Lebanon Top News | 8/30/13

The daily roundup of the top 3 news stories in Lebanon

BEIRUT: Lebanon charged five people Friday, including one Syrian intelligence officer and two sheikhs, over the twin Tripoli bombings that killed 47 people last week.

Military Prosecutor Saqr Saqr filed charges against sheikhs Ahmad Gharib and Hashem Minqara as well as informant Mustafa Houri, a judicial source said

The source said Saqr charged two Syrians, including an intelligence officer, in absentia. The Syrian suspects were identified as Capt. Mohammad Ali Ali, an officer in the Syrian Intelligence, and Khodr Lutfi al-Airouni.

Why it matters:  Such a direct and easy to discover Assad regime hand in the bombings is notable for a variety of reasons. First, it means Assad is willing to lash out at whoever displeases him, which is something to keep in mind in this lead up to Syria strikes. Second, because his cronies are getting sloppy. It took the Lebanese police a week to charge what appear to be 5 of the plots main conspirators, including a Syrian foreign intelligence officer. It’s likely that Assad’s operations assets are degrading a bit in Lebanon and he doesn't care about hiding their affiliation anymore in his fight for survival.

Israel conducts two days of heavy flights over Lebanon: Army

BEIRUT: The past two days have seen heavy illegal air traffic from Israeli war and reconnaissance planes over Lebanon’s airspace, the military announced Friday.

Six Israeli warplanes and three reconnaissance planes violated Lebanon's airspace in the past two days, the Army said in statement.

Why it matters: How Israel figures into the Syria strikes equation is a big question, especially for Lebanon. They could launch simultaneous strikes, go on the defensive, or monitor targets struck by missiles. Hezbollah could also fire a range of rockets at Israel to provoke some kind of response. It’s too many variables to figure out reasonably but keep your eyes on Israel in the run up to conflict.

UK discourages travel to Lebanon

BEIRUT: The United Kingdom advised its citizens Friday against all but essential travel to Lebanon due to spiking regional tensions and an increase of violence linked to the war in Syria, changing its long-standing position on the safety of its citizens in the country.

Why it matters: It’s taken a lot for the UK to finally change their travel advice for Lebanon, and the fact that they have done so is another of dozens of indications that worse is ahead. This regional and domestic conflict, they are separate but overlapping, will become something that Lebanese can’t just ignore anymore

Photo from The Daily Star. 

[blurbistan]

Lebanon Top News | 8/29/13

The daily roundup of the top 3 news stories in Lebanon

Hezbollah mulling response to Syria strike

BEIRUT: Hezbollah signaled Wednesday it might not stand idle if Syria is attacked by the United States and its Western allies over its alleged use of chemical weapons.

The remarks by Hezbollah’s caretaker Agriculture Minister Hussein Hajj Hasan were the closest so far by a senior party official about the group’s readiness to retaliate for a possible massive U.S.-led military strike on Syria.

“We should deal seriously with the U.S. decision to attack Syria. Hezbollah is following up and watching the situation and will do what is appropriate at the appropriate time,” Hajj Hasan told Al-Mayadeen TV station.

Why it matters: If the Syria strikes happen (a big if) How Hezbollah responds will be the most immediate concern for Lebanon. It’s impossible to know but possibilities range from attacks into Israel, strikes against U.S. government or business areas or any other number of ways of targeting Western interests in Lebanon. Everyone is holding their breath over what the future will bring in Syria and to a lesser extent that’s also true in Lebanon.

Pro-Assad figure detained over n. Lebanon bombings

BEIRUT: The head of a pro-Assad Islamist group in Lebanon was detained for interrogation Thursday by police as part of a probe into last week’s deadly car bombs in the northern city of Tripoli, a judicial source said as new details of the bombing plot were uncovered.

According to the source, about a month prior to the fatal bombings, Houri told the Information Branch of conversations with Gharib in which the sheikh had spoken of planned bombings targeting mosques in the northern city with the aim of assassinating former Police Chief Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi, Salafist Sheikh Salem Rafei and Future Movement MP Khaled Daher.

Why it matters: Other news events have overtaken the bombing story, but the direct connection to the Syrian government is the most startling thing about the investigation. Assad’s arm is alive and well in Lebanon, the regime sees a threat from Sunni groups and its willing to act violently against them. In many ways Assad has more logistical latitude in Lebanon than he does in many parts of his whole country. The bit about police being aware of the plot beforehand gives conspiracy theorists plenty to gnaw on, but also shows the intelligence branch of the ISF is still putting in decent work and is on the trails of the crimes that matter…maybe.

Kidnapped Turkish pilots in Lebanon speak in audio message

BEIRUT: A local television station broadcasted, what they described was an audio message of the two Turkish Airlines pilots who were kidnapped last month in Beirut.

In the message aired by LBCI, the two voices identified themselves as pilot Murat Akpinar and copilot Murat Agca.

Why it matters: Don’t forget about these guys, especially if there is a strike against Syria with Turkish backing. It’s unlikely the pilots will come into Ankara’s decision making process, but they could be an early retaliatory victim.

Photo by Mohammad Azakir / The Daily Star 

[blurbistan]

Lebanon Top News | 8/26/13

The daily roundup of the top 3 news stories in Lebanon

Hezbollah fighters exposed to chemical agents in Syria: source BEIRUT: At least four Hezbollah fighters are receiving treatment in Beirut after coming into contact with chemical agents in Syria, a security source told The Daily Star Monday.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said between four and five members came into contact with the chemical agents while searching a group of rebel tunnels in the Damascus suburb of Jobar over the weekend.

Why it matters: Chemical weapons, now with a direct connection to Lebanon.  It’s pretty shocking for Beirut to now be treating chemical exposure patients, it’s a sign of how terribly the course of the Syrian conflict has gone and how Lebanon remains tied to its neighbor. Chemical weapons in Syria could spook Hezbollah leadership or the rank and file in one way or another (but not they aren’t going home) and make their decision making less predictable, particularly worrying given looming U.S. military action.

Future: Hezbollah's involvement in Syria paved the way for strife

Hezbollah says it will extend hand to save Lebanon

BEIRUT: Hezbollah said Monday it will extend a hand to political rivals in a bid to save Lebanon, after bombings ratcheted up sectarian and political tension in the country. … He did not specify what issue Hezbollah would be willing to extend its hand over. BEIRUT: The Future parliamentary bloc made another call Monday for Hezbollah to withdraw its fighters from Syria, saying the party’s intervention alongside regime forces has paved the way for strife in Lebanon. The bloc also said that the city of Tripoli, where twin car bombings killed at least 47 people, would continue its struggle against the Syrian regime’s influence in the country.

Why it matters: The often duplicitous lies that politicians tell at public events about being ready for dialogue, preparing to make amends and being friendly are now even more sinister because of how they hide the deep sectarian grievances that have been stirred in the country.  Things are not alright. Hezbollah is ready to extend a hand but shows no willingness to compromise. Future wants the dialogue table, but asks their opponents to say mercy before they get there. It’s now become a dangerous charade.

Fears of more bombings sweep Lebanon BEIRUT: The Lebanese Army stepped up its security measures and expanded its deployment in Tripoli Sunday, two days after deadly twin car bombings struck the northern city, as fears grew of more attacks aimed at inciting sectarian strife in the politically divided country.

Why it matters: There’s a general fear of violence that has swept through Lebanon and will not dissipate soon. 

Photo by Mahmoud Kheir / The Daily Star

[blurbistan]

Lebanon Top News | 8/25/13

The daily roundup of the top 3 news stories in Lebanon

US military ready to act over Syria chemical claims: Hagel

KUALA LUMPUR: Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Sunday the US military was ready to take action against the Syrian regime if ordered, but stressed that Washington was still evaluating claims of a chemical weapons attack.

Why it matters: I usually keep Syria stuff off the blog unless it has a direct connection to Lebanon, but this story has my full attention because of its massive significance for the Levant and the potential for blowback here. When you have a Arleigh Burke-class destroyer a few miles off the coast, things are pretty serious. Admittedly my interest in the story is very western-centric. American action in Syria is unlikely to improve the conflict... at all. But it will fundamentally alter the presence of Westerners and Americans here.  The U.S. popping off a few missiles into an intractable conflict in the Levant didn't end well in the past, and it’s unlikely to do so now, especially with Hezbollah’s direct connection to the fight, again.

Authorities to release one sheikh in Tripoli bomb investigation

BEIRUT: Authorities are expected to release one of two sheikhs apprehended for interrogation over Friday’s car bombs in the northern city, as the Lebanese Army increased its security measures around Tripoli Sunday and residents cleaned up after the explosions. …

Gharib is close to the Syrian intelligence agency and is considered a link between the agency and Hashem Minkara, head of the pro-Syrian regime, Islamic group Tawheed Movement which is based in Tripoli.

Why it matters: It’s pretty stunning that fighting has been almost entirely held back in Tripoli after the bombing even with a pretty strong initial connection to the Syrian regime and the Alawite pro-Assad neighborhood in the city. The mechanisms at work in Tripoli are mostly hidden so it’s very difficult to figure out how this will progress. It would seem that politicians have successfully put a lid on immediate reprisals in Tripoli and military energy will be focused on attacking the centers of pro-Syrian sentiment.

Rai decries Tripoli blasts, holds politicians responsible

BEIRUT: Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai condemned the twin car bombs in the northern city of Tripoli Sunday, saying he holds officials and rival political leaders responsible for the country’s deteriorating security situation. …

Rai also slammed rival parties for obstructing the process of forming a new government under Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam and for placing conditions on their return to the national dialogue table.

Why it matters: The tension in Lebanon is spiking, most people believe things will get worse soon and that there will be another bombing. There is no government to pilot the country through the impasse and political polarization is high due to Syria. But, there are some things that remain encouraging, firstly that mainstream politicians seem to genuinely want to keep the country out of major strife. Much of that has gotten beyond their control, but the main current in the country is one that rejects violence.  It’s entirely fair to point the finger at the politicians for fostering the environment that led to strife, but the political and social makeup of Lebanon is fundamentally different than Syria’s civil war conditions.