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As technology renders jobs obsolete, what will keep us busy? Sapiens author Yuval Noah Harari examines ‘the useless class’ and a new quest for purpose

stoweboyd

In 1973, two social scientists, Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber, defined a class of problems they called “wicked problems.” Wicked problems are messy, ill-defined, more complex than we fully grasp, and open to multiple interpretations based on one’s point of view. They are problems such as poverty, obesity, where to put a new highway—or how to make sure that people have adequate health care.

They are the opposite of “tame problems,” which can be crisply defined, completely understood, and fixed through technical solutions. Tame problems are not necessarily simple—they include putting a man on the moon or devising a cure for diabetes. They are, however, solvable. Solutions to tame problems either work or they don’t. Solutions to wicked problems, by contrast, are only better or worse. Trade-offs are unavoidable. Unanticipated complications and benefits are both common. And opportunities to learn by trial and error are limited. You can’t try a new highway over here and over there; you put it where you put it. But new issues will arise. Adjustments will be required. No solution to a wicked problem is ever permanent or wholly satisfying, which leaves every solution open to easy polemical attack.

Two decades ago, the economist Albert O. Hirschman published a historical study of the opposition to basic social advances; “the rhetoric of intransigence,” as he put it. He examined the structure of arguments—in the eighteenth century, against expansions of basic rights, such as freedom of speech, thought, and religion; in the nineteenth century, against widening the range of citizens who could vote and participate in government; and, in the twentieth century, against government-assured minimal levels of education, economic well-being, and security. In each instance, the reforms aimed to address deep, pressing, and complex societal problems—wicked problems, as we might call them. The reforms pursued straightforward goals but required inherently complicated, difficult-to-explain means of implementation. And, in each instance, Hirschman observed, reactionary argument took three basic forms: perversity, futility, and jeopardy.

The perversity thesis is that the change will not just fail but make the problem worse. The futility thesis is that the change can’t make a meaningful difference, and therefore won’t be worth the effort. We hear both of these lines of argument against the health-care-reform law. By providing coverage for everyone, it will drive up the system’s costs and make health care unaffordable for even more people. And, some say, people can get care in emergency rooms and through charity, so the law won’t do any real good. In fact, a slew of evidence indicates otherwise—from the many countries that have both universal coverage (whether through government or private insurers) and lower per-capita costs; from the major improvements in health that uninsured Americans experience when they qualify for Medicare or Medicaid. The reality is unavoidable for anyone who notices what it’s like to be a person who develops illness without insurance.

The jeopardy thesis is that the change will impose unacceptable costs upon society—that what we lose will be far more precious than what we gain. This is the sharpest line of attack in the health-care debate. Obamacare’s critics argue that the law will destroy our economy, undermine health care for the elderly, dampen innovation, and infringe on our liberty. Hence their efforts to persuade governors not to coöperate with the program, Congress not to provide the funds authorized under the law, and the courts to throw it out altogether.

The rhetoric of intransigence favors extreme predictions, which are seldom borne out. Troubles do arise, but the reforms evolve, as they must. Adjustments are made. And, when people are determined to succeed, progress generally happens. The reality of trying to solve a wicked problem is that action of any kind presents risks and uncertainties. Yet so does inaction. All that leaders can do is weigh the possibilities as best they can and find a way forward.

They must want to make the effort, however. That’s a key factor. The major social advances of the past three centuries have required widening our sphere of moral inclusion. During the nineteenth century, for instance, most American leaders believed in a right to vote—but not in extending it to women and black people. Likewise, most American leaders, regardless of their politics, believe that people’s health-care needs should be met; they’ve sought to insure that soldiers, the elderly, the disabled, and children, not to mention themselves, have access to good care. But many draw their circle of concern narrowly; they continue to resist the idea that people without adequate insurance are anything like these deserving others.

#gif

azspot

The truth is that freedom is not won at the cost of death to our enemies. On the contrary, war creates vicious cycles of enmity that puts us all in danger and renders us and our enemies twin agents of death. Nearly two decades of war in the Middle East have exacerbated insecurity and enmity. And as money pours into the war machine, we lose our freedom as education, healthcare, housing, the environment, and arts and sciences suffer.

War Lies and Memorial Day Truth (via azspot)

stoweboyd

I recently co-founded a software startup. Each month, I send out an update to our investors. But the past month was a bit different. Instead of just writing..

Zack Kanter pens a magisterial analysis of why Amazon is a world beater, and how the company insulates itself from competition, paradoxically, by opening up every aspect of its operations as a service stack, for all to see and copy (if they can):

each piece of Amazon is being built with a service-oriented architecture, and Amazon is using that architecture to successively turn every single piece of the company into a separate platform.

This is a nearly impossible to summarize analysis of Amazon’s unassailable position in the world’s economy. Kanter should be working at a VC fund instead of Stedi. Or Bezos should buy Stedi, and put Kanter in a strategy role.

plantedcity

Of the 17 hottest years on record, 16 have now occurred since 2000.

One of many stunning facts reported in Justin Gillis’ New York Times article, ‘Earth Sets a Temperature Record for the Third Straight Year’. 2016 is the new hottest year on record, globally.

‘Average people can make a difference on global challenges’ (Phys.Org)

‘As fossil fuel die-hards take over White House evidence of global energy transition has never been clearer’ (Jeremy Leggett)

‘It’s not in your head: The weather is getting weirder and climate change is the reason why’ (Popular Science)

‘Scotland sets ambitious goal of 66% emissions cut within 15 years’ (The Guardian)

‘China to spend $361 billion on renewable energy by 2020; part of shift away from fossil fuels’ (Mashable)

"And when memory failed and written records were falsified—when that happened, the claim of the Party to have improved the conditions of human life had got to be accepted, because there did not exist, and never again could exist, any standard against which it could be tested." "In the end the Party would announce that two and two made five, and you would have to believe it. It was inevitable that they should make that claim sooner or later: the logic of their position demanded it. Not merely the validity of experience, but the very existence of external reality was tacitly denied by their philosophy."

“Why do you go away? So that you can come back. So that you can see the place you came from with new eyes and extra colors. And the people there see you differently, too. Coming back to where you started is not the same as never leaving.”

Terry Pratchett, A Hat Full of Sky

We’ve fired a camera at Pluto that’s travelling at fifty eight thousand kilometers an hour this week. We can now see thirteen billion years into the universe’s past. There’s now a 2D material that appears to decompose within a couple of days but actually remains solid – it just becomes almost completely invisible. Researchers in Paris can stop and store light. A space drive is being tested that appears to break the laws of physics. The PH of a geyser plume on the moon of Enceladus has been identified. Dolphins have social networks. There are six people living in space today, and we have five space robots around Mars right now. At least six new species have been discovered in the last few days. Artificial muscles have been constructed from gold-plated onion cells.

Warren Ellis ( a speech of his in Dublin recently pulled from his newsletter @ http://orbitaloperations.com/

Calvin and Hobbes

Path 89, Row 106 2015-11-27 at 23:52:47 GMT http://ift.tt/1NTDHlj

aestatemagazine

schoolofvisualarts

I Left My Heart in Tokyo by Audin Grimstad

welcometobusinesstown

chrislindsay

found my Halloween costume for this year

treedance

Good news! The US government decided today that because I did such a good job investigating the cyber-industrial complex, they’re now going to send me to investigate the prison-industrial complex.

-Journalist and activist Barrett Brown in his public statement

The news: In Texas yesterday, Brown was sentenced to 63 months in prison and more than $890,000 in restitution for his proximity to sources in the hacker group Anonymous and for linking to leaked Stratfor documents. Often called the “spokesman” for Anonymous against his wishes, Brown has been detained since his arrest in 2012, and since then has taken a plea deal to reduce his sentence from the decades of charges the prosecution was seeking. Journalists and activists alike agree this is just part of the slippery slope as classified government documents are leaked by hackers and journalists do their job investigating said leaks. As Kevin Gallagher (from the Free Barrett Brown Campaign) told The Guardian, “Any journalist that uses hackers as sources is extremely chilled by this.”

Like the tenacious dissident he is, Brown is now publishing a column from prison.

From the rest of Brown’s statement:

For the next 35 months, I’ll be provided with free food, clothes, and housing as I seek to expose wrongdoing by Bureau of Prisons officials and staff and otherwise report on news and culture in the world’s greatest prison system. I want to thank the Department of Justice for having put so much time and energy into advocating on my behalf; rather than holding a grudge against me for the two years of work I put into in bringing attention to a DOJ-linked campaign to harass and discredit journalists like Glenn Greenwald, the agency instead labored tirelessly to ensure that I received this very prestigious assignment. — Wish me luck!”

(via futurejournalismproject)

mymodernmet

Renowned French American photographer Vincent Laforet recently embarked on the photo mission of a lifetime when he soared 7,500 feet in a helicopter above New York City to capture breathtaking aerial photos of the glittering cityscape at night.

#nyc #newyork #newyorkcity

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