The idiot’s guide to Y2k.
I was reading the news this evening and I came across a quote from the Member of Parliament for the 1930s, Jacob Rees-Mogg. He said that the consequences of Brexit were being overstated "like the millennium bug".
As someone that spent a fair amount of time researching risks to the IT world from the vote to leave the EU, and who had worked on the Y2k issue, this gave me cause to shout forth a series of unpleasant words. I don't want to go into those Brexit issues here - I have in previous posts. But I do want to go back over Y2k, and why the likes of Rees-Mogg think they way they do. Think of this as your own special guide, Jacob.
For those that are too young to remember, or were unaware of the techie problems, it went a bit (ha!) like this.
Once upon a time, computer memory was expensive. I mean, really expensive. If you try to buy a one gigabyte (1,073,741,824 bytes) memory stick today, you'll struggle to find one that small and it might cost you a pound. In 1980 it would cost over $6 million dollars for that kind of memory. And it wouldn't fit in God's pocket, never mind yours.
In 1990 that came down to about $100,000. And that's when a hundred grand was a hundred grand ;) So, we live in a time when storage for computer software, the space it gets to play in when it runs on your computer, is as near to free as makes no odds. The amount of storage for files, documents, pictures, videos etc is also vanishingly small. (The cost of managing it all is another matter, by the way!).
So it's hard for us to remember the time when programmers had to find innovative ways to fit computer programmes into memory not measured in gigabytes, but megabytes and even kilobytes. The early version of Excel at the top of this article tells a story, check out the free memory on that Mac :)
Back then, every character was precious. If you didn't need to use up extra memory for no reason, you didn't. Especially if that was in data that repeated. Lots of dates were stored in the format YYMMDD. This means 1st September 1971 would be 710901. This is really easy to sort into date order, and why would you bother putting the 19 in front of 71? Every date had a 19 in it. And if you had 10000 rows of data that was 20000 extra characters (20k out of your 303k free).
So, if you were writing software in the 1980s, or even 1990s, when the year 2000 was a long way off, and you didn't expect your software to be in use by then, you could be excused for leaving off the first two digits of the year.
The problem with this of course is that some software hangs around for longer than expected (before you even start thinking about "embedded" software in devices). And newer software often has to use or understand conventions used by older software in order to be compatible. So the 'millennium bug' lived in our computers for a long time. We knew about it - I first read about the problem at university in the early 90s. But the reality of business is that nobody wants to spend money on tomorrow's problems. (See Climate Change).
Around 1996 things really started to happen - some failures had been reported on systems booking future dates and governments were taking action. The UK government set up a new agency to deal with the problem and in 1997 a new administration increased the funding. It was also raised at the G8 summit in 1998.
Microsoft released tools to help scan computers for date issues, some of you might remember this -
I was working as a programmer in the late 90s and spent many a happy (ahem) hour fixing date bugs in my employer's works management system. They ranged from the two-year date issue I described previously, through strange date calculations and even finding ways that people had found to use dates (11/11/11 for example), to denote unusual records. All needed fixing.
This happened all around the world. Every system of importance had an owner and most got fixed or replaced, because the alternative was bad. Here is one example.
Chrysler Corp. shut down its Sterling Heights Assembly Plant in mid-1997 and turned the plant’s clocks to December 31, 1999.
“We got a lot of surprises. Nobody could get in or out of the plant. The security system absolutely shut down and wouldn’t let anyone in or out. And you couldn’t have paid people because the time clock systems didn’t work.”
Chrysler Chairman Robert Eaton.
But despite this testing, fixing and replacing there were many failures. Guess what, companies don't shout from the rooftops every time their systems fail. We do know about a lot of them, from banks in the USA to transport systems in Japan. An example from the UK was when new born babies were given birth certificates with 1900 printed on them.
But overall the effort to mitigate the Y2k problem was a success. It took a lot of work, and it cost a lot of money. Much of this was bringing forward investment in new systems, rather than exceptional extra spend. Of course, lots of people took advantage of the problem. For people selling business software it gave them to opportunity to play on people's fears. Lots of software and consultancy was sold that was unneccesary. But, this doesn't change the fact that the problem was real and took a big effort to fix.
Those that have the luxury of experiencing the non-event can be forgiven for not understanding the complexity. But when they dismiss facts as fake, when they try to use a simplistic narrative to justify their narrow beliefs, it is important to look at the history behind their claims.













