Ein AusLANDER

British guy who worked in mostly Forensic Psychology since 2005 but took a two year break in 2011. A leap of faith and a Houdini escape act to Berlin, sidetracked for 8 months in Edinburgh by the Belgian paparazzi by accident. Walking around Berlin lost and confused for a month. Moved to Munich, Germany for work where my former German girlfriend lived, got really into running, tough mudder etc. Been back working in Psychology since late 2013. The future is always curious - a mystery and no one knows its face! #ukulele #guitar #piano About this blog / The story so far . . . Follow @ein_auslander

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Is it still possible to win an election through legitimate means? Or is the only way to be competitive to adopt the propaganda approach of other parties?

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47 years ago the Daily Mail had a different view on Europe.

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Since the above Nissan have now announced that they are cancelling the 'night shift' at their Sunderland plant. Make of it what you will.

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A really interesting read. I struggle to believe that Cummings is genuinely as delusional as they'd suggest. But the lack of empathy or comprehension of the perspectives of the other 'players' seems rather pervasive.

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I urge people to think critically for themselves about why the leave campaign might have wanted to do this. The real fear campaign was demonising immigrants, with the absurd alleged duality of both claiming benefits and stealing your jobs at the same time. The fear campaign was about how the NHS was some how poorer due to EU membership (when EU migrants contribute more in taxes than they take in benefits and are generally of a younger age with few health issues). The fear campaign was suggesting that Turkey was about to join. What did they think would happen with the referendum if they instead told the truth about such issues? Why are they so especially against the idea of asking a more informed public the same question? Make up your own minds.

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Is Thomas Cook’s collapse another casualty of Brexit ?

At its height Thomas Cook had annual sales of 9 Billion. Over 16 countries it employed 22K staff (9K in the UK). They served 19 million holidays a year and were founded in the late 1800's. They ultimately folded because they had debts greater than 1 Billion with 150 million interest a year on their debts. They would struggle to pay hotels in the winter months when they inevitably made less money. They cited Brexit as a significant factor back in May 2019. They felt that specifically the uncertaintly of Brexit over the summer put a not insignificant number of people off booking holidays. Whilst this was undoubtedly a significant factor it is certainly not the only one. A very warm summer in the UK may have meant less of us choosing to holiday abroad (although there have been loads of warm summers that they had been profitable in). The rise in low cost airlines has been a suggested factor. However, I am unconvinced by this given that they have already been a factor for 20 or 30 years. What I am more convinced by is that as people have got more and more familiar with travelling abroad they feel less need to book their holiday through a travel agent. Anecdotally, I am in my mid thirties and can only remember one occasion as an adult where I went on holiday through a travel agent. This was because my ex-girlfriend booked the holiday and due to an unusually financially competitive deal. I hope that those who have lost their jobs are able to quickly find work. I also hope that something is done for those who are stranded or have lost a lot of money for holidays they paid for and have undoubtedly been looking forward to.

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I think that this is deeply deeply true. With the analogy of faith it is about often believing without clear evidence. Or even to have the resolve to believe regardless of the best evidence telling us otherwisee. Because Brexit is such a deeply emotional thing for people. They care about Brexit way more than they care about any of the negative consequences. Brexit at any cost! So I think Dawkins has nailed the point. For balance. I believe that many of us whom are pro remain also are in a similar situation. Although my bias is that the case for remain is much more strongly supported in empircal evidence. Statistically the younger voted overwhelmingly for remain. Counting upwards the first age range to have voted majority for leave were aged 50-64. Those 65 or older were even more likely to vote leave. Jumping a few steps ahead from this I think it's inevitable that we will end up with a population that are majority remain. Meaning that our now leaving and then rejoining the EU. On both accounts is close to inevitable.

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No-deal Brexit would shrink UK's global influence, say ex-ambassadors

Former senior diplomats write to PM urging him to ‘signal a different approach’ at G7 summit

25 ex-embassadors write to the PM explaining how a no deal brexit will reduce the UK's global unfluence. We will be withdrawing from the tables where major decisions are made. We will have less influence at other tables because we have a smaller population by ourselves, so less political leverage. It is not that Brexit voters do not understand this - it is more that they do not care as much about our global image. As anecdotally, they tend to travel significantly less. I would imagine that Brexit voters are much less likely to even have a passport. I suspect this, but do not know for sure.

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The Governments own words coming back to haunt them. No wonder they've spoken about a 100 million pound advertising/propaganda campaign.

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This is despite the UK now being a lot cheaper for EU tourists. This is not an insignificant decrease and a big loss to the economy considering what they would have spent. In my opinion this is a side effect of us dramatically weakening our image abroad. If there is a silver lining at all let's hope that this situation is somehow finally making life just a bit more bearable for passionate brexit voters.

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The price of Brexit has been £66 billion so far, plus an impending recession — and it hasn't even started yet

Brexit has helped create a declining pound, increase in inflation, erosion of household spending power, decline in house prices, and weak exports.

This is without mentioning the catastrophic human cost of Brexit such as the impending loss of rights and privileges.

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Lie detector test (polygraph)

It has been suggested that the pound is the lie detector test for this fantasy that Brexit is good for the British economy. Let us therefore, continue to watch the pound.

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Even in this 'post truth' world of alternative facts being used to secure Brexit. It is not possible to deny the reality of what is happening to the pound as the markets see through the vaneer.

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Anecdotally, as someone who travels I've known this firsthand for quite some time. The Brexit vote feels quite embarrassing and our international friends generally view it with bemusement and tend to find it quite pathetic. It's interesting to see that those in more professional positions in terms of politics seem to be receiving the same vibe.

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In the European Elections the votes are in and there have been some interesting results.

The conservatives have done extremely badly suggesting they are not impressing those in favour of Brexit or Remain.

The majority of people voted for pro remain ideology. However, the single biggest vote went to the Brexit party. Not surprising as the leave vote isn't spread through as many parties.

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Brexit

I think that Brexit is over. I will explain why. It looks like we are now in a position of every six months or so getting a further extension on Brexit. The reason for this is that the version of Brexit sold that leavers voted on is inherently undeliverable. It will never pass parliament. Nor is the Northern Irish border a solvable puzzle. For this reason the can will keep getting kicked down the road. There will be a point when the penny will drop that as parliament will never pass the deal the only way of getting a deal ratified is for the third and deciding non advisory referendum (it's 1-1 so far) where the people can choose to do it. However, the deep reality is no leave voter wants another referendum because we all know deep down (although many of us do not want to admit it) that leave could not win another referendum, especially if it is an informed choice based on facts. I still think it's inevitable though, within the next two years.