My theory is that Orange can only use his powers either in moments of extreme emotional distress, or when there's literally no other option/choice.
Showdown is the obvious example, but in AvA13, Orange's powers awaken in response to the massacre TDL and H4CK3R were doing. Both of these situations put Orange in the most distressing situation he's been in thus far, and more importantly, a situation in which he can't think of a solution for. In AvM Season 3, the destruction wrought by the Staff could've been a distressing situation, but Orange thought of a potential way to stop it, a course of action, and was thus focused on doing that. In other words: Orange's powers might activate when he feels there's literally no other choice or way out of his situation.
Which actually calls back to a moment he almost used his powers that I think we've all been overlooking: AvA4.
Most people tend to just accept him glitching into TCO as Early Adaptation Weirdness that's since sort of been retconned a little, now that Orange is no longer TCO's reincarnation [which Alan has confirmed was the original intent, when he'd made AvA4; he only decided to bring back TCO and TDL later, retconning Orange's origin a little.] BUT if we ignore the visuals for a moment and just look at this moment as his powers almost awakening, we can see the hints of what could cause his powers to awaken even here: extreme emotional distress (his friends just got 'killed') and a potential 'no alternative solution/way to fix this' - except, that second part is why I don't think Orange actually awakened here: he thought of another course of action - getting vengeance against Alan. His decision to attack Alan back interrupted his awakening here.
In Showdown, he was both injured/potentially dying and just saw his friends die (again lol). He knew TCO was pretty much out for the count. In this moment, there was no other solution/way to fix this but for his powers to awaken.
AvA13 is the most explicit about this I feel like: he's literally shackled in the Machine, forced to witness and likely hear a total massacre right in front of him. Despite holding him captive, those workers didn't really do anything to him to deserve this, most of them were innocent. It was horrifying, and there was nothing he could do to stop it because he couldn't get free: you can see him writhing and pulling on the shackles trying to get himself out and it doesn't work. He's stuck. He can't do anything. He can't stop this. And his powers awaken. in this situation, the laser was the only possible solution to making them stop.
Only for H4CK3R to put him beddybye time bc his powers beat Orange's in the weird rock-paper-scissors loop the hollowheads have going on lmao.
In short, I don't think Orange actually has control over his powers, they're not something he can just use like TCO and TDL and H4CK3R's; they're a response to certain outside situations and Orange's own extreme emotions. They're literally a last chance gambit, a final deus ex machina attempt. He can't choose to use his laser or his telekinesis or his revival powers, they're all dormant until a time of great need.
Which is the best way Alan and Skim can balance him, I feel like. Having a character that powerful that can access his powers at will greatly limits what they're actually able to do, what story situations they can put him in, because the obvious answer to any potential problem that would arise would be "blast it with the fuck-off laser". Orange would win every situation he was put up against, and that's just boring storytelling. He needs a huge limitation on them for them to be able to keep including him in the story.
Orange still technically having his powers but being unable to just whip them out whenever he wants lets them have the best of both worlds: Orange with awesome powers, and an Orange who isn't a tank that would just steamroll any future conflict.
[Being too strong to be Put Into Situations is actually why I think Alan and Skim both don't really like TCO; his free control of his powers makes actually doing anything with him in a narrative difficult. Case in point: literally all that they've had to do to him this season.]
The one thing that goes against my theory is Animation vs Water, where Orange just...randomly flies. And this is the one Vs Fundraiser Promo that isn't revealed to be a dream at the end. So what's up with this?
Well...might be a bit of a hot take, but I don't consider Vs Water canon :/
Vs Water is...a very strange animation. It's clearly unfinished because the team literally didn't have enough time to finish it (the backgrounds are still the placeholder ones) and this time crunch I think played a large role into what actually was scripted to happen during it. It was rushed, so the team didn't have much time to think of a decent way for Orange to discover how bad the problem of dirty water actually is. So they just...made him fly to see.
You can sort of see Alan dying inside all throughout the AvG reaction video, and his response to DJ's remark about Orange flying is to just laugh awkwardly and say "don't worry about it". That's not really the response of a guy who's proud of that transition.
So many things in this animation are just illogical and weird, that I've personally chosen to just omit it from the canon. Treat it like it was a dream by Orange like the others and call it a day. Orange flies? He's dreaming, he can do whatever he wants. It's a insignificant enough video that it doesn't really matter in the long run.
As for if we'll see him use his powers in AvM...I highly doubt it. Alan and Skim like to keep AvA and AvM stuff separate (with a few minor exceptions), and Orange's powers are a sort of AvA thing. I think that we'll only stick with the strange premonition thing, which was originally an AvM thing in the first place. Plus, Orange using any of his powers in AvM hearkens back to the narrative issues I mentioned above. It's much more interesting and entertaining to see what non-power solutions and courses of action Orange comes up with.
(And tbh, I kinda doubt anything in AvM would be distressing enough to even trigger his powers. The last time required a literal slaughter of hundreds by the Outernet's Most Evil Stick and his Brainwashed Plaything, that's a bit of a hard bar for AvM shenanigans to reach.)
Anyway, TL;DR: Orange's powers might not be something he has conscious control over, and are instead a response to certain extreme situations he's in, and might be sort of dependent on if he can think of something to do himself or not.
