Product diffusion is a crucial concept in branding and can be defined as the number of adopters for a specific product within a defined period of time (e.g., within a year). To assess how quickly a product will be adopted it is useful to first look at market potential to understand which customer segments will most likely be willing to purchase and use the product.
Here, we take a look back at four specific products, and assess (with the benefit of hindsight) market potential and what could have been expected with respect to the rate of diffusion. We can assess the latter using a helpful framework introduced by Everett Rogers, which offers five perceived attributes of innovation. These include:
1. Individually-wrapped peanut butter
Assessment - Slow diffusion, limited market potential
Individually-wrapped peanut butter ("IWPB") was marketed as being more convenient than traditional peanut butter. I personally do not see how making a PB&J sandwich is particularly stressful or inconvenient, and the whole notion of a slice of peanut butter is probably too foreign for most. Against Rogers Five Forces, it probably only ranks high against complexity, but the skeptic in me would probably conclude that spreading peanut butter on bread is not that much more complex. IWPB may appeal to those who have to mass produce sandwiches (soup kitchens, school cafeterias), but is making a normal peanut butter sandwich really that much more work compared to unwrapping a slice of peanut butter?
2. Silver-coated bandages
Assessment - Moderate diffusion and market potential
The benefits of silver-coated bandages were quite clear, but the uses outside of the medical setting were probably quite limited. Using Rogers terminology, it could result in "overadoption," since the vast majority of people do not need silver infused bandages to treat minor scrapes and scratches. Furthermore, without broader education, potential customers will probably not understand the benefits of this innovation. Thus, while it does score relatively high across Rogers' forces, its broader application will likely come about within hospitals and clinics in which the users already know and value the efficacy of the product.
Assessment - Slow diffusion and moderate to high market potential
Remember when we all said that we would buy satellite radio on day one so that we could listen to Howard Stern? That was before we realized we would also need to shell out several hundreds of dollars to install a satellite radio into our cars. History has shown that satellite radio has been successful; at last count, there were 20+ million Sirius XM subscribers (Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2013/04/12/can-sirius-xm-tune-in-big-subscriber-growth-this-year/). But adoption could be predicted to be slow: people were uneducated on the technology, it was relatively complex to understand, and it required adopters to pay a lot of money upfront for a product that was largely unproven. Over time, its relative advantage over existing radio won out, and the observability factor has brought down the hinderances from some of the other forces.
Assessment - Slow diffusion, low market potential
There is something to be said about a product that is..."too innovative," shall we say. The iSmell has gone down as one of the most bizarre technologies in recent history (don't take my word for it, check out: http://www.complex.com/tech/2011/04/the-50-worst-fails-in-tech-history/digiscents-ismell). In my opinion, the product scores low against nearly all of Rogers' forces. Further, it would seem as though outside of a few die-hard Food Network viewers, who would want to smell artificial, chemically-induced oranges? Or maybe I am still stuck in the dark ages...