Gizmo Factory

Science, space exploration, and random rants. Sometimes writings, doodles and pictures too.

[gizmoman]

Acceptable Risk

So it seems like every time an anniversary of Challenger or Columbia comes around, there are always a few people who regret that we ended the shuttle program. If anything, I believe we should of ended the shuttle program sooner. I believe that to be true for a few reasons from cost, efficiency, and flexibility of mission; but today I want to focus on safety in remembrance of the loss of Challenger 30 years ago. 

To be blunt, the risks of flying the shuttle were simply too great. Sure, it was getting safer by the end of the program, but the risk of a foam strike was still there (Which is what happened to Columbia). As well as the risk of a failure of one of the solid boosters (Which is what happened to Challenger), and there was still no way to survive what happened to Challenger, while what happened to Columbia depended on a rescue shuttle. Assuming of course that your rescue shuttle wasn’t similarly damaged on liftoff. 

I know what you’re thinking, but isn’t risk part of the job of being an astronaut? Sure. 

That being said, we owe it to these men and women that risk their lives to give them the very best engineering possible. We are moving back to capsules because simply put they are safer among other advantages. 

If something happens to the launcher as with Challenger, the capsule simply rockets away from the launcher with an escape abort system. This has only ever been used in practice one time, three years before the loss of Challenger in fact in 1983. 

Video of Soyuz T-10-1 Launch Escape System

Capsules are also safe from debris strikes because they are on top of the launcher, instead of on the side attached to a huge fuel tank like with the shuttle.  

That doesn’t mean nothing will never go wrong when it comes to manned spaceflight of course, but the reality is that the astronauts of Challenger and Columbia were given an intentionally flawed spacecraft from an engineering standpoint. Indeed all of NASA’s missions where there was loss of life from Apollo 1 to Columbia have been the result of flawed engineering. 

Flawed engineering intentional or otherwise is simply not an acceptable risk. Thus keeping the shuttle flying would have been another disaster waiting to happen, no matter how much safer you try to make it because at the end of the day there is only so much you can do to compensate for the flaws of the original design. 

We need to accept that manned spaceflight is risky but minimize the risks as much as possible, however possible through sound engineering. That is the lesson from Apollo 1, Apollo 13, Columbia, and most especially Challenger. 

[gizmoman]

2016 Elections

So while a year away, this is the most important election in the past 20 years coming up. Possibly in my lifetime. 

We are a Republic, but we are headed towards a fascist state if the Republicans win in 2016. Its that simple. 

The “Freedom Caucus” is a good example of what is in store for us if we vote Republican in 2016. That is the future of the Republican party if they win in 2016. >.> It isn’t pretty, and it should scare the shit out of you if you’re an American. 

Lets be clear, the GOP has done everything in its power to make your vote matter as little as possible if you tend to vote Democratic. Gerrymandering has made it so that the Democrats could get more votes but still lose. 

Gerrymandering and voter suppression is not healthy for the future of our Republic. All Americans should be against it.

Yet if the GOP win in 2016, it wont be addressed. If anything, the system will be rigged even further in the GOP’s favor. As if the GOP win, the supreme court becomes ultra conservative. Good luck getting gerrymandering/voter suppression or even campaign financing reformed. 

This is why the hate for Hillary on the left is so puzzling to me. Some hard core liberals have even stated that a Republican President would be better than Hillary as President. Yes, it would be great if Bernie Sanders could prove himself to be capable of winning but if he can’t win the nomination, we need to unite behind whoever has the best chance of winning the nomination. If that’s Hillary so be it. 

You can’t have a progressive future if you can’t get Democrats elected because of gerrymandering/voter suppression/etc (which you can’t do anything about because of an ultra conservative court). 

For the future of the nation, and for our Republic we need to #UniteBlue in 2016. Don’t sit this election out. 

[gizmoman]

Senate Launch System

So the past couple of weeks have been great for NASA. They had a Pluto flyby, released a new Blue Marble photo, and discovered a new exoplanet that is one of the most earth like planets we have ever found. 

That’s all great but the future of the US space program is uncertain. This is because of two reasons. 

1: NASA’s budget has been shrinking. Not only just in the past 40 years, but in the past 15 years too. Its unclear if this continues whether we’ll be able to do these sort of missions into the future. Or whether or not these will be the glory days, and if future generations will look back at us with disdain for gutting this capability. 

2: The second reason is because of what I like to call Senate Launch System. Its a future manned launch system that will outclass the Saturn V in capabilities. Its nickname refers to the fact that elements in the US Senate have the most to gain from making sure SLS is funded. Now, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing and if that was the end of it I’d be fine with SLS. 

The problem is that its a launcher that NASA never asked for, never wanted, and more importantly its too expensive to fly. For us to utilize SLS in full, NASA’s budget would have to go up in the next 30 years. Maybe it will, and maybe pigs will fly. Evidence though, doesn’t suggest that that is likely to happen. 

All the evidence shows that the American people are unwilling to increase NASA’s funding. If you build it they will fund it is not a sound way to run your space program. Especially when it threatens the manned program we can do within the current budget realities, and science funding in general because it costs a billion dollars a year to develop. 

We need to be realistic about what we want NASA to do. If we want NASA to do all that it has been tasked to, that means increasing its budget. If we are unwilling to increase NASA’s budget. We need to have a space program vision that reflects that. 

We cannot have it both ways and our space program will suffer if we try. 

[gizmoman]

My Thoughts on New Horizon’s Success

Missions like this are why we fund NASA, and lets be clear this mission wouldn't have happened without NASA. No other nation/space agency has explored the outer solar system. Only NASA for the most part (With one exception, an ESA lander that landed on Titan after getting a ride from NASA).

Yet NASA's planetary science funding has been under threat the past couple of years.

http://blogs.discovermagazine....

http://www.space.com/20622-nas...

Yet NASA's own Administration has said we don't have the money for flagship missions like New Horizon.

http://nasawatch.com/archives/...

Yet NASA's entire budget adjusted for inflation has only gone down since 1975.

This is because us the American people have not said loudly and clearly that we want to preserve NASA's capabilities for future generations. We should be planning for missions that happen in the 2020's-2030's now, and yet we aren't. The truth of the matter is, we may never have a planetary science capability like we do now into the future if funding isn't increased at least adjusted for inflation for crying out loud.

So by all means enjoy the pictures, just make sure you aren't the last American to enjoy such marvels and that we leave nothing for future generations because there is no funding.

[gizmoman]

The Best Way Forward?

So its nearly 6 in the AM, and I simply can’t sleep. More so I’m having to face that my life has entered a rut, and that my efforts to try to make progress on a daily basis again aren't working. This would be so much easier, if I did not quite feel like I had to do it all on my own. 

I think there is only so much you can do by yourself though. If you don’t have people in your life that understand you, and support you on a daily basis its hard to find opportunities to advance. My family though, is either too busy or incapable of understanding me.  My friends are either just as busy, unable to put up with my failures (I think. Thus avoiding me because I am toxic), or not confident enough to in themselves to be any assistance. 

So rather than continue to complain, I’m going to try to describe my ideal way forward if the support was there. Basically ideally I’d have an exercise, programming, writing buddy, someone I can work with/bounce ideas off on a regular basis without feeling like I am burdening them. 

Unfortunately, my past attempts at such support have failed. I've just never had anyone in my life for whatever reason that I could depend on like that, or anyone that was that committed to me. 

I don’t fault anyone for this, we all have our limits of understanding and capabilities. I just know that I've suffered from to put it simply, a lack of social interaction almost all my life. We are social creatures after all, and yet somehow I've failed to find a place socially. Kind of sure, and kind of was enough at one time. Kind of kept me alive, but beyond that I just don’t know. 

I think the most hurtful narrative we've all been told is that you are weak, and somehow a failed human being if you can’t survive on your own and just somehow become an adult without all these social experience I’ve simply not had. I think the most capable of us, did not happen in a vacuum. There was a supportive social structure. 

I think we need to stop thinking of people as just existing as they are at their best or worst entirely on their own. Or that that is at all possible. There are many forces that enable/disable people to become the people they are. Racism, sexism, white privilege, etc. 

So to be frank, the science doesn’t support this myth. Yet its a prevalent idea especially in the United States. 

[gizmoman]

Mental Control

I think for you to be happy, one of the things you need to learn is to control your thoughts. Like say, a traffic cop. You wave through positive thoughts, wave through the right amount of doubt/negative thought that allows constructive criticism, and stop everything else. 

True, its not easy to train yourself to overlook the same pitfalls you may have a habit of putting yourself. Neither are you guaranteed to succeed every time. Everyone has their bad days after all. Its just a matter of deciding how bad those bad days get in your head before things get completely out of control.

If something you think regularly is not benefiting you. Stop yourself form thinking it. 

Examples: I’m stupid, I’m terrible at everything, etc. 

Don’t have any positive thoughts? Make some. Look to your family and friends for support/a reminder of why you are awesome. Also, if it helps I think you’re awesome too. Why do I think you’re awesome? 

You’re an amazing member of our species, that has the potential to make the world a better place all by yourself. That’s pretty awesome. Thus you’re pretty awesome. 

[gizmoman]

The Oblivious

I have to say the people that piss me off the most are those that are oblivious to how their actions effect others. 

They are the people who believe sexism is over, that racism is over, that gender is black and white. Those that don’t understand the importance of science.

These are the people who are holding us back the most as a species, not those who are outright racist, sexist, etc. Those who are either oblivious, or who just don’t give a shit. Which is frustrating, because sometimes I think we’ll never get beyond this point. Like we’ll be stuck at 65% forever.

Of course hopefully generation by generation we will get there, its just there is no excuse for it to take that long. Not in 2015. 

I want to believe we’re heading towards a better future, and that the next generation of our species will be better off than we are now, but I’m not so sure. 

Anyway, enough ranting. Good-night. 

[gizmoman]

Ranting About Science

So as someone that appreciates science, mostly because I understand all the millions of ways that science has improved our lives; I admit I am frustrated with the rampant anti-science in society.

To be fair though, I'm not many people have that grasp of understanding of why science is important. I for example am typing words into a computer via my keyboard. To make this computer and my keyboard possible, you're talking about various fields of science that had to come to an understanding before it could happen. Geology, chemistry, and physics. So it is distressing when people start to distrust scientific evidence for various reasons.

I think part of it is simply some of us have misconceptions of what a scientist is. Some of us think of scientists as highly intelligent people who can sometimes be wrong simply because they are unable to look beyond their own hubris. If that sounds familiar, its because it should be. It is the most popular portrayal of scientists in fiction. Which would be OK, if the majority of us in the world had a more accurate view of scientists to compete with that mindset.

Only most of us don't know scientists personally, nor have we ever met scientists and those scientists that are a part of popular culture, are dwarfed by celebrities and sports stars that our society seems to value more highly.

The problem is that we are a society that is heavily dependent upon science and technology, yet many of us don't appreciate the role science plays in improving our lives. What's more, many of us are mistrustful of scientists. Especially when it comes to subjects like climate change, evolution, GMO's, and vaccines. Which is upsetting to me, but understandable considering what the popular image of what a scientists is in our culture.

The real image of what it is to be a scientists though is something different. It is a group of people, that are pushing the limits of our understanding as a species. They do not have all the answers, but when they make it clear that there is a consensus we should listen. Of course some argue that a scientific consensus is just groupthink, but that isn't accurate either.

What it comes down to is the evidence. Scientists come up with a hypothesis, and then do their best to prove that hypnotists to be true or false. Unfortunately since humans aren't perfect, that means you need mountains of evidence as it were. One study isn't going to do it.

Even scientists can be bias after all, or make mistakes when setting up their evidence. Which is why you want as many different instruments, and as many different teams of scientists working on proving something true or not. That way you discount the bias, instrument trouble, sample size issues, and whatever other flaws that are possible in such research.

Unfortunately the media doesn't help, it presents scientific research in a matter of fact way. As if one study means that such and such causes cancer, or that such and such proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that such is true. At the same time, the media encourages debate and imply's that there isn't enough evidence for things like climate change by letting such debates to happen in the first place.

So basically a scientific consensus is reached after many years of research by multiple teams of scientists. Which is why we know evolution to be true, that GMO's are safe, that vaccines are safe and effective and that climate change is happening. As the body of evidence is simply too large to ignore and simply supports this to be true.

Evidence I might add that is confirmed by hundreds if not thousands of scientists around the world. Frankly if climate change wasn't happening, or caused by humans you'd have multiple scientific agencies around the world in disagreement let alone within the United States. Yet that isn't the case, there isn't a single scientific agency around the world that says climate change isn't happening. Instead what you have are a very small number of "scientists" and lay people that say it isn't happening, and most of those "scientists" aren't climatologists and more importantly haven't provided evidence to back up their claims.

Sure, you're free to disagree but unless you're willing to provide evidence to backup your point I'd ask you kindly to stop pretending to know what the hell you're talking about. 

“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'” - Isaac Asimov

[gizmoman]

Failings

One of those So I've not posted in a while, I can't really say that I've been too busy to write/post really. The fact is, I have just decided to spend my time doing other things, and not necessarily because those things were better for me overall. Indeed, some of them weren't in the absence of moderation. If I'm honest part of the reason is because I like to escape reality. Part of it is because I'm not sure who I can really talk to about these things anyway and escaping means I don't have to face the realities facing me. 

My family has their own problems, lives that they need to focus on. My friends are great, but there are limitations to what they can help me with. One has anxiety issues, confidence issues that limit them from being perhaps as supportive and assertive as they might otherwise be. The only other that I really trust, and which I feel is interested in my life has a bazillion things going on. I feel uneasy, more so than I was in the past about bothering them. 

Sure, there are other friends. One which I have an uneasy past with that we haven't really overcome. Another that I don't feel like I can ever really be close to, because they don't understand me at all. So yes, I feel there are real limits to my relationships unfortunately. I would like things to be closer of course, but I just don't see that happening if ever. 

As far as romantic relationships go, those are non-existence. Something honestly I've admitted to very few people, but honestly I guess its pretty clear anyway. I've just never, and I mean never met another human being as of yet that feels anything but friendship towards me at best. What few chances I had in high school, I squandered because of social awkwardness. 

Anyway, I guess my problem honestly is that I am stuck. I'm unsure what real tangible progress can be made from here. So I escape, wasting away in a digital playground that in some way makes more sense than real life. After all there are fair goals that are attainable inside such a playground, the possibility are limited less. 

2015 hasn't been a bad year so far, it just hasn't been a productive one. I am not moving forward, if I'm honest I haven't moved forward with my life since November. 

Sorry for not posting, sorry to those friends who read this that I've been distant. Anyway, I should sleep and thanks for listening whoever bothered to read this. :) As the song goes, Always Look on the Bright Side of Life. So hope you're having a good 2015, and I'll try to post something of more substance soon. >.> 

[gizmoman]

I'm re-posting this, because freedom of expression matters. Only savages kill others over a fucking cartoon. 

[gizmoman]

Seasons greetings from Ferguson, Missouri - November 24th, 2014

[gizmoman]

Ebola

So apparently some people are saying that we should close our borders to those countries who are suffering with Ebola. The problem with this are three fold.

1: It cuts off aid. If there aren't flights from these countries, there aren't any flights to these countries either.

2: When you're combating a virus, you want to be able to track who has been infected and where they came from. If they can't come to the US directly, they will go overland to countries that aren't known to be combating Ebola. Not only infecting others and making the outbreak worse but making it harder to track who infected who and where this patient or that came from. Either way, its possible such people would come to the US from these nations that aren't flagged as having Ebola.

3: Ebola isn't airborne, nor is it likely to be airborne ever. Its possible, but very unlikely. How unlikely? In 100 years of studying viruses, we've never seen a human virus change how it transmits. Never. Not only that, this a virus that has fewer chances to mutate since its less contagious than say the flu. In all of human history Ebola has killed less people than were killed last year in car crashes in the US.

Its a terrible outbreak yes, but the risks to the United States are extremely low. Please can we stop panicking nation?

[gizmoman]

Star of India

2020

Day 3

"Houston to Star of India, you are go for capture, " How many times had she heard that call before in the simulations? Tessy didn't know, "Roger Houston, prepping for capture now, " Her training kicked in, she prepared the spacecraft and soon she was moving again (Not that she could feel it). She had spent two days chasing the International Space Station, the lone occupant of India's first crewed spacecraft launched from India soil. She knew she hadn't been the first choice, nor was the first crewed mission suppose to be to ISS. It just sort of worked out that way as the ties between NASA and ISRO strengthened. It didn't hurt that India got to join the big boys, something China had been denied. Something both countries were only too happy to make clear.

Really though, Tessy knew she was little better than a delivery woman. ISRO would resupply ISS at least once a year for three years, and would gain access to ISS. She came bearing gifts, and would take as many experiments as they could stuff in after her. Still, delivery driver or not the view had been amazing. Watching ISS grow in her monitor had been pretty special too. Now the spacecraft moved forward until it was only 10 meters away, Tessy was ready to abort or take over for the computer if need be. Alas, everything was nominal and Tess was almost disappointed, almost. The spacecraft stopped at 10 meters away from the station, and held in place while Canadarm 2 grabbed her, "Station to Star of India we've got you good, hang tight and we'll get you out of there in a Mississippi minute." Tessy smiled, recognizing the voice as "Tex". Tex actually wasn't from Texas, nor did she know him well enough to know why everyone called him Tex but the big American had managed to always keep things lighthearted even during the toughest of their training. She welcomed the idea of seeing colleagues, or anyone for that matter after two days of a sort of isolation despite being in constant touch with mission control.

Berthing wouldn't be for another three hours and a half, she enjoyed the view in that time, ate dinner rand communicated with family, the press, and finally the Prime Minster, "I think I can speak for everyone when I say that you have made India proud, " She smiled, "Thank you Prime Minster, all of India has lifted me and I am honored to represent you all, " Once berthed to the station she and the crew of ISS took time to sleep. She was most certainly tired, it had been a long day and she had not slept well during her first two days in space. Yet still she found herself having trouble drifting off. She thought of her family, her proud parents. Her sisters, and always Ashley.

Day 4

Alisha Chinai played into her ears as she stared out the window, "Houston to Star of India, good morning, " She had slept a little better last night, but woke up before the music wake-up, "Morning, Houston. Another beautiful day in space, " She smiled, Raj was CAPCOM again. He would be the next to go up. He gave her a quick briefing of the days tasks.

- First there will be a hard mate of the spacecraft to ISS, then the ISS crew will set up power and data cables before opening the hatch.

- While ISS crew does that, Terry will prepare the cargo for delivery. 

- Then leak checks on both sides, while she's wearing her pressure suit of course. 

- Finally hatch opening, and the tour around ISS. Getting her up to speed with tomorrows tasks, and getting her all setup in one of the sleeping quarters. 

Tessy couldn't decide what she looked forward to most. Viewing the earth from Cupola? Yes. Being able to float more freely in the much bigger ISS? Yes. Or having a sleeping quarters where she could sleep in her regular clothes rather than the pressure suit. All sounded very good. 

They ran through the timeline quickly, and she changed into more comfortable clothes before the hatch was finally open. The ship bell rang at her arrival, and she hugged her crew-mates for the next 29 days. 

There was the American commander of course, "Tex". His real name was Barry Wiseman, and almost nobody called him that. The Russian Yelena Serova was there too, and of course the Japanese Kimiya Yui. This was the second time that both of them had been to ISS, the 3rd time for the commander. 

She made sure to smile for the cameras, and say something profound. She knew well that everyone on NASA TV was watching her, but was reminded that there was no audio. Finally the video cut out, and she helped unpack her little spacecraft. It was a quick job between the four of them, and after that they gave her the tour. 

Finally after the tour, and all the days work she settled into her little cabin. She wondered who had slept in this cabin before her. She had neglected to ask. Sunita Williams maybe? The first woman of Indian descent to visit and even command ISS.

She quickly figured out what time it was where in her head. Too late to call her family in India, not too late to call Ashley but she would be at work. She sighed, and settled in for the night. Strapping herself in, and falling asleep. 

[gizmoman]

Space Week

So today is the beginning of Space Week. What's Space Week you might ask? 

World Space Week is an international celebration of science and technology, and their contribution to the betterment of the human condition. 

Basically this week is dedicated to appreciating all things space related in my opinion. You know, because GPS satellites, weather satellites, communications satellites are all making the world a better place as they fly over our heads.

On the exploration side, I think we're a better species for every spacecraft we put into space. It proves we care about more than just killing each other, and our own selfish lives. Not to mention, at just 0.45 percent of the national budget NASA is downright affordable (OK, its a little less than that actually). You know because NASA doesn't just explore space. They also makes our aircraft safer and more efficient, but you get the idea.

Anyway, I thought I'd do something like write a story each day of this week that is space related. So daily updates start soon. 

[gizmoman]

Please Vote

So today is exactly 31 days until the next federal election in the United States. I'm not going to tell you how to vote but I am going to implore you to vote if you are of age and a citizen of the United States. Especially if you are a millennial like me, because everyone is so sure we wont turn out this election. Maybe we wont, but I'd like to prove them wrong. I'd like us to stand up as a generation, all of us that can vote and make it clear that we're done putting up with a congress that isn't even close to functioning. 

A congress, I'll remind you, that shutdown the government a year ago last Wednesday due to partisan bickering. 

Why should you care you might ask? You may have ample reason to feel like your vote doesn't matter. I think that is the wrong way to think about things myself (Expecting an instant result with just one vote or two). We have the government we deserve at the moment, because of low vote turnout and because people in general just don't care. Sure, the last election you voted in might not have gone the way you wanted and you may feel disillusioned about the whole process.

I get that, I really do. I also believe though, that we can have a better government than what we have right now. Though first we have to make that happen by making sure we care enough to vote at the very least. At the most we'll turn out in force, and make it clear that we're not to be taken for granted just because we're young. You have to start somewhere.

Monday is the last day to register to vote in many states if you haven't already, please vote. 

[gizmoman]

Scotland

Bravo Scotland on an excellent exercise in democracy. Hopefully now that the union stands there can be further progress to make sure that it truly is a United Kingdom for all. Also, let's please my fellow Americans do our best to get the same sort of turnout for the midterms in November. Your voice should be heard and we must come together if we are going to continue to thrive as a nation. It is time for the American people to remind Washington that it is all Americans and not just the rich and corporate persons that deserve to be represented.

[gizmoman]

Juggling Sadness

Loneliness like anything else is something you can grow accustomed to. It boggles the mind though, that with so many people in the world it can be so hard to find others worth knowing (or people worth knowing that think you are worth knowing). People's who's company you truly appreciate and enjoy thoroughly. Meanwhile you shuffle through life tolerating those which you disagree with or ignoring them if you can't tolerate them. They may not necessarily be bad people, but your well being is key and even the nicest mess of a person can strain you beyond your breaking point. Other times you simply have to make a choice, there are only so many hours in the day. You choose the people who are most important to you and exclude those who are not. Maybe if you are lucky you will have a few people you can always rely upon, but that is asking a lot. In my experience, you can really only rely on a very few amount of people. Myself, there are only two people I trust enough to help me out of a jam if I needed to. Not that that means necessarily that they would be able to help, but I trust them to try and be there for me if they could. Hopefully you have someone like that too.