Golf Betting

My opinions on the weeks golf tournaments on the US and European tours. All prices shown are best and are each way unless stated.

[golfbets]

The 2018 US Open Betting Preview and Picks - 14th - 17th of June

The US Open returns to Shinnecock Hills. The last time this course hosted the second major of the year was in 2004. Anyone familiar with the course that year will know it was a disaster for the USGA. The greens all but died that year when the course officials made the mistake of trying to make the course play tougher by drying out the greens. The par 3 seventh green was a joke. Mickelson (who finished 2nd) deliberately aimed for the bunker with his tee shot as there was no way to land the ball anywhere near the green. The below image shows golf course staff watering the 7th green in between groups.

Moving to 2018, I cannot see history repeating itself. The USGA will go out of their way to create a more fair test this time round. The course will still be set up firm and fast though, unless there is a lot of rain prior that is.

The course has somewhat changed since 2004. It has been lengthened on several holes, had some fairways widened (and some narrowed) and also had some greens enlarged.

If the wind blows during the four days, the course will play quite difficult. However, I think if there is a calm four days, the scores could be low by US Open standards. I for one hope that the wind does become a factor. Tough conditions are what makes the US Open such a good spectacle.

Some key stats I have factored in are:

Bogey avoidance - Particularly in windy conditions when the scoring has been tough.

Tee to green accuracy - Again with a focus on playing in wind on a firm golf course. Also, I have factored in how sharp a players recent iron form is.

Three putt avoidance on fast greens - US Opens aren’t all about making tonnes of birdies like some Tour events, they are often about making pars and avoiding big mistakes. I like this stat for Shinnecock, where the undulating greens will make a few players a little frustrated.

Scrambling - Greens will be missed this week, especially if the wind blows. The ability to get it up and down will be paramount.

Par 4 Scoring - 450y-500y holes especially. Being a par 70, the focus will be par 4 scoring. 7 holes at Shinnecock measure between 450-500 yards.

My ranking based on these variables among others produced the following:

This was produced using the stats at Fantasy National. (There is a PGA Tour bias here for sure). One of my picks - Francesco Molinari - is not ranked in the top 20 but I am positive that if his European Tour form was included, he would be well up there.

Past US Open Champions:

2017  - Koepka

2016 - DJ

2015 - Spieth

2014 - Kaymer

2013 - Rose

2012 - Simpson

2011 - Rory

2010 - Gmac

2009 - Glover

2008 - Woods

Taking a look at the past champions of the US Open it can be argued that class golfers prevail. Since 2011 - All winners were less than 50/1. All winners since 2012 have come to the US Open in strong form having at least one top 4 finish in their six events prior.

So using the rationale that top players will rise to the top at a US Open and using the other key stats I have come up with the following shortlist:

Justin Rose - Rose came out number 1 in my rankings. He is obviously a proven winner including a US Open. He is arguably one of the most in form golfers right now. His recent form reads 6 - 1 - 23 - 12 - 52 - 3 - 5. He has won twice in the 2017-2018 season with another five top 10s.

His all round game is very strong right now. In this field he ranks 2nd in Bogey avoidance in difficult conditions, 3rd in scrambling on tough golf courses, 6th for SG: Approach play - recent form, 7th in SG: Short Game - recent form and 25th for GIR when the wind is blowing.

He has the perfect temperament for the type of golf that Shinnecock can demand from a golfer. 

18/1 - Win only - 3 points

Webb Simpson - I was very pleased to see Simpson ranked so highly for me. I have had him earmarked for this week since he won the Players Championship.

His short game is in great shape and he is in control of his ball striking, as displayed at Sawgrass in May. Simpson is, like Rose, a past US Open champion so can handle the tough conditions - his winning score at the Olympic Club in 2012 was +1 overall.

I am viewing his MC at the Fort Worth Invitational as a blip in an otherwise stellar season for Simpson. His recent form reads MC - 1 - 21 - 5 - 20 - 8 - 37 - 5

Webb is currently ranked 6th overall in Strokes Gained putting for the season. He is ranked 30th for SG: Approach shots and 19th for SG: Around the green, 2nd in overall scrambling and 12th in par 4 scoring.

He looks a great bet at nice odds.

66/1 1.25 points each way

Paul Casey - Casey fits the bill for a US Open winner for me. His ball striking right now is excellent and his short game is not going to hurt him.

Casey is a capable wind player who can score well when the going gets tough. He is without a doubt, a player that should have won more. 

He seems to have recovered from his back issues that led him withdrawing from the Players Championship. He managed a top 20 at Wentworth even after he admitted he had not prepared for the event at all.

He strikes me as being a good value bet. 

50/1 1.5 points each way

Ian Poulter - Granted, Poulter may not quite fit the overall trend of US Open champions. He doesn’t win enough stroke play tournaments. However, his recent record speaks other wise. And by the way, what a way to get into the Ryder Cup team...

He is arguably playing some of his most consistent golf outside of a Ryder Cup this season.

He has already won the Shell Houston Open and had recent finishes of 11th at Sawgrass, 8th at the Italian Open and a top 20 at Wentworth.

He ranks highly for most of the key stats for me this week - 18th in scrambling, 13th in approach play and 3rd in recent short game form. 

He has it in him to grind out a US Open. Granted, there are a few question marks, but his price reflects that.

125/1 1 pt each way

Alex Noren - Noren has the game to win a major, most likely a US Open or Open Championship for me. He putts well and can play well on a links style course.

He is in good form - a top 25 in Italy and a top 3 at Wentworth before that. He has had close calls this season too missing out narrowly in a playoff to Jason Day.

He is a proven winner on the European Tour - with 9 wins total.

His price is very attractive too - 66/1 is still available with Ladbrokes. 

60/1 - 1.25 points each way

Francesco Molinari - The current Race to Dubai leader. Coming in with a second place in his home Open and a win at Wentworth the week before. I doybt there is a golfer in better form. He went 85 holes without a bogey between the two tournaments, quite astonishing.

His form in the states is not quite as impressive. Having said that, he finished 2nd at last years PGA Championship. 

He is one of the best ball strikers in the world. If he has an average putting week, he will be close to the thick of it. He just hits so many fairways and greens. He is also a strong scrambler - he ranks 3rd on The European Tour for scrambling right now.

70/1 1 point each way 

[golfbets]

St Jude Classic - 7th - 10th June 2018

The event prior to the second major of the year, the US open, the St Jude Classic finds itself with a good field. Daniel Berger comes here after winning the previous two editions. 

The course is TPC Southwind, hosting its 30th edition of the event. It is a par 70 at 7244 yards. The greens are Bermuda and are quite small targets. The iconic par 3 11th hole is similar is stature to the 17th at TPC Sawgrass. Water is in play on 10 holes.

13 Players in total (at the time of writing) will be teeing it up at TPC Southwind who are also heading onto Shinnecock.

There are a number of players who love this course and perform well year after year. The obvious one is Berger, who has a 100% winning record on this course. Another is Mickelson, whose form here reads: 9 - T2 - T3 - T11 - T2. Ben Crane is a past champion of the event who also regularly performs well. Billy Horschel and Harris English are also very competent at TPC Southwind. A mixture of super ball strikers (DJ, Berger, English, Westwood) and short game wizards (Gay, Crane, Toms) make up the past champs here.

The weather forecast for the week looks very good, maybe a little hot. No wind to speak of.

Key Stats

The stats that I have used to inform my picks are as follows:

GIR - The small greens are difficult to hit around Southwind, supreme iron play is required.

Scrambling - Greens will be missed due to their small size, past champions have generally scrambled efficiently on their road to victory.

Par 4 Scoring - particularly with a focus on those in the 450-500 yard range - of which there are eight in total.

Course form - There are a number of players who regularly perform well here. However, I would not rule out a first timer or someone with a so-so record (English won on his first attempt, as did DJ and Berger). I have also factored in similar courses such as El Camaleon, Waialaie, Sea Island and Coco Beach.

Based on these stats I came up with a ranking as follows (Generated using Fantasy Nationals stats database, highly recommended):

From this list I have narrowed down my shortlist to the following:

Brooks Koepka - Previous results at TPC Southwind - 37- 2 - 3 - 19

Brooks is playing incredibly well considering his wrist injury late last year. He has only played 3 events since January. He was close to winning The Fort Worth Invitational, pushing Rose all the way. Following a week off and with the defence of his US Open title looming I feel he will be raring to go this week. 

His recent form puts him a the top of most of the key variables this week. For his last 12 rounds he ranks (out of this field) 3rd in scrambling, 23rd in Ball striking, 1st in Par 4 Scoring and 15th in GIR.

His price is short, but he is an elite player in supreme form. At the moment I think he offers much better value than DJ or Stenson.

Odds: 12/1 - Win only 4pts

Russell Knox -  Previous results at TPC Southwind - 37 - 8 - MC - 74

Russell’s recent form reads 44 - 20 - 16

His putting isn’t great at the moment but he is giving himself a lot of chances with his red hot iron play. He currently ranks 7th in GIR % on tour and 8th in average proximity. 

He also has strong finishes at correlated courses this year - 9th at the OHL Classic and 10th at the Sony Open.

Odds - 66/1 - 1pt each way - 7 places 1/5

Joel Dahmen - Top 20 -  Previous results at TPC Southwind - 18 (2017)

I’ll be honest, Dahmen popping up so highly on my stat rankings did surprise me a little, but quite simply his ball striking recently has put him up there. 

He has finished in the top 20 in his last three events with impressive ball striking performances.

He also encouraged me with a good showing here last year in his first appearance at TPC Southwind.

He looks a good top 20 bet and small stakes outright.

Odds - 150/1 outright 0.5pts - 6 places each way and 2 pt top 20 @ 6.5/1

Peter Uihlein -  Previous results at TPC Southwind - 78 (2017)

Like Koepka, Uihlein is in great form. He finished in the top 5 at Memorial and again at the Wells Fargo with a top 25 at the Byron Nelson in between. 

His ball striking right now is quite possibly the best it has been since he switched to playing his golf stateside. 

As you can see from the screen grab, his game is in great shape for this course. 

He must have an eye on his Ryder Cup ranking also. He needs to improve, and very quickly if he is going to have chance to make the team. This could be a great week to do just that. 

In terms of recent form, he ranks 2nd for scrambling, 7th for ball striking, 4th for par 4 performance and 16th in GIR. His final round at Memorial was very impressive, a bogey-free 66.

He surely has the talent to win multiple times on the PGA tour. His victory at the Web.com finals to get his playing rights is an indication of that.

Odds: 40/1 1pt each way - 6 places 1/5 (posted to Twitter when 50/1)

Ben Crane -  Previous results at TPC Southwind - 10 - 41 - 37 - 1 - 18

A TPC Southwind specialist. Crane is also coming in with some strong form with an 8th place finish at the Fort Worth Invitational and an 11th in Texas two weeks prior to that.

A very deliberate player (AKA slow) Ben performs well on par 70s when the focus is more on par 4 scoring as opposed to taking on the par 5s. 

His putting has returned to a much higher standard this year (top 30 in Strokes gained putting this year as opposed to 100+ last year). He is ranked in the top 20 for par 4 scoring this season.

Odds: 100/1 0.75pts each way 6 places 1/5

Tony Finau -  First time at TPC Southwind - 

Recent form - 13 - 57 - 21 - 10 - 24

A good week last week for Finau at the Memorial with a good all round showing makes me think he is ready to push on and get his second tour win. 

His tee to green game returned to its usual consistency last week. He is also putting better than he normally does, a dangerous combination when you consider this guys power.

He is another guy on the fringes of the US Ryder cup team - currently ranked 17th. A big week here will certainly be a step in the right direction. I definitely feel like the Ryder cup is coming into the thought process now for some of these players - especially when looking at the leaderboard at the Italian Open over the weekend. The likes of Gmac, Pieters, Sullivan, Westwood, Kaymer, Willett and Poulter all rising to the top which leads one to think that they eye on their Ryder cup rankings or impressing enough in the next few months for a captains picks.

28/1 1.5pts each way - 5 places 1/4 (Posted to Twitter when 33/1)

Total staked = 15.5pts

[golfbets]

The Players Championship 2018

No introduction is really needed for a course such as TPC Sawgrass. It is one of the most iconic tracks on the PGA tour, primarily because of the thrilling finish and how it has been designed around hosting large amounts of spectators, creating an amphitheater like feel on key holes.

In making my picks this week I have used data from the Fantasy National site - incredibly useful especially with the recent addition of the ‘Mixed Condition Model’. This allows the user to pick key stats and add weightings to them to generate a list of players ranked by their performance overall and in each category - I highly recommend taking a look at what they offer for both bettors and fantasy fans.

Keys at TPC Sawgrass over the years have been: Scrambling, Approach play and strong putting form.  Sawgrass is about control, strategy and patience.  The course is an examination into a players tee to green game.

Another factor I have included is history at other Pete Dye designed courses - TPC Lousiana, Harbour Town, Whistling Straits etc. (this is also a feature that can be factored in using the Mixed Condition Model.

My picks are as follows:

Patrick Reed - 33/1 - The Masters champ is in imperious form - his last four results are 8 - 1 - 7 - 2 (not including the Zurich classic). Reed has a solid record at Sawgrass, definitely not outstanding. However, looking at previous winners, strong records here don’t always precede a win. Reed is a constantly strong performer on Bermuda greens and his approach play is very sharp right now as well as being coupled with a hot putter.

Matt Kuchar - 66/1  - A sawgrass specialist who doesn’t win nearly as much as he should - 66 is a fair price which takes this into consideration. Like Reed, performs well on Bermuda.

Justin Rose - 28/1 - Rose has the all round game to win anywhere - Ultimately it falls on his ability to hole putts on any given week and I like him here.

Webb Simpson - 80/1 - Approach play is top notch at the moment - improving as ever with the putter. Strong performer on Pete Dye courses.

Leishman 66/1 - His scrambling ability and accurate irons will bode well for the Aussie. 

Dechambeau 55/1 - This will be his first time out at the Players but that doesn’t put me off. His approach play and putting in recent weeks have been. In the last two months on tour he is ranked no. 1 for Ball Striking and no. 5 in Putting.

[golfbets]

Alfred Dunhill Champ - Leopard Creek, Kruger National Park, South Africa

Bets for this week:

2 points win - Hennie Otto - 24/1 Betfair

Hennie is in great form and will be wanting to put the disappointment of narrowly missing out last week at the South African Open. His recent form reads: 8-12-6-2-3-2. 

He has a good record at Leopard Creek - finishing in the top ten on three occasions - the last coming in 2011. 

Last week he ranked in the top 5 for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation - both of which will help him a lot here. He also had a good week with the putter which will be a necessity to keep up with the usual low scoring around Leopard Creek.

0.5 points each way - Robert Rock - 90/1 - Stan James

Rock has shown form on this course in the past finishing 8th, 4th and 2nd.

He is in a poor run at the minute but a week on a course that suits his game could see that turn around. Not a bad price considering his potential ability and record on this course.

0.25 points each way Kristoffer Broberg - 250/1 - Stan James

Kristoffer has not quite made the impact that many thought he would so far on the European tour following his heroics on the challenge tour. However, he did finish second in this event last year.

At this price for me he simply could not be ignored and was worth a small each way bet. 

[golfbets]

The McGladrey Classic at Sea Island

This week the tour moves to the Seaside course, Sea Island – this course has played host to this event for the past three years producing three very different champions in Slocum, Gainey and Crane.

The course is a beautiful par 70 measuring just over 7000 yards – it is very similar in style to Harbour Town which hosts the Heritage tournament. The course won’t particularly favour bigger hitters, accuracy will be the key here along with good putting on tricky Bermuda greens. Par four scoring will be the key here, with only two par fives the emphasis will be placed upon making birdies on the fours.

My picks this week are:

Luke Guthrie – 40/1 – 1 point each way

Luke is in top form – he has two top 5 finishes in his last two starts. Luke is a big hitter, something that won’t really help him around the Seaside course, but it won’t hurt him. In the 2014 season he is ranked third for par four scoring and is putting well. He held his own recently when in contention in a much stronger BMW Masters field when he finished only two shots behind eventual champ Castano. The week before that he finished in a tie for fifth at the Shriners Open that included two 64’s.

Luke should come here full of confidence – he has 10 top 25 finishes in the 19 events he has made the cut in which is fairly impressive considering his age. He has two wins on the Nationwide tour and after a solid year in 2013 that included six top 25s, he looks ready to win.

Morgan Hoffman – 125/1 – 0.5 points each way

Morgan is another up and coming American – in 20 starts on the Nationwide tour he has racked up 10 top tens. He has also made the step up to the PGA tour well – he has had three top tens in 28 events – two of which were par 70s.

Hoffman has made a steady, if unspectacular start to the 2014 season. However, looking at his 2013 stats it is clear to see that he is a strong putter who makes a lot of birdies. He ranked 37th in the all around ranking, which I feel is encouraging considering it was his first full season on tour. But what is drawing me to Morgan this week is that he was ranked 2nd in birdie or better for par fours and 11th overall for par four scoring average.

Matt Every – 80/1 – 0.5 points each way

Matt is another player who scores well on par 70s – he was ranked 13th in par four scoring for 2013. He is yet to win on tour but that is not that worrying this week in an event that is not boasting a very strong field. He has a top 10 to his name at Harbour Town which bodes well for the link between there and the Seaside course.

He fares well on Bermuda greens and likes a par 70. If he putts well he could definitely get his first win here. 

[golfbets]

The USPGA Championship at Oak Hill

This years PGA Championship is being held at Oak Hill country club in Rochester, New York. The course is not particularly long at just over 7100 yards but it is expected to play especially tough with many comments from professionals regarding how difficult they feel the course is set up.

The rough is very thick and is in very tight to some of the pins - rewarding accuracy with irons.

There are a number of long par fours which could favour the longer hitters but also those that are good with the long irons. A quick look at a number of winners of the PGA championship does suggest that the courses favour the longer hitters with 11 of the last 12 averaging over 290 yards in distance.

History of recent winners of the fourth major shows that the last 7 champions have won an event earlier on in the year. Also, the eventual winners have often faired well the week before at Firestone - with the winner having finished in the top 25 at the prestigious WGC event.

Oak Hill is a typical classical test of golf which rewards accuracy and patience with birdies being rarer on these setups than most. The winner will need to be able to grind under pressure when others are making mistakes.

With all of these factors in mind I am going for the following players:

#1 - Miguel Angel Jimenez - 150/1 1 pt each way (seven places with BetFred)

Miguel is in top form - finishing inside the top 10 at last weeks WGC event and also playing well at the Open at Muirfield.

He is incredibly accurate off of the tee and is putting very well currently. He ranked first in fairways hit last week and was also one of the top putters in the field.

He hasn’t won already this year but he is in great form and at this price offers brilliant each way value - especially with the extra places on offer.

#2 Adam Scott – 20/1 1.5 pts each way (6 places with Paddy Power)

Adam Scott is in imperious form challenging at The Open several weeks ago. He is full of confidence after breaking his duck in the majors. A good finish last week saw him notch up another top twenty.

In this form I think he could challenge on any course – I expected him to be shorter than this – more like 14-16/1 so I think this price is very fair given his recent major record.

Scott has a great record on Donald Ross courses also which suggests that Oak Hill will fit his eye.

The partnership of Scott and Williams has done wonders for Adam’s confidence and I only expect that to continue at another major.

#3 Angel Cabrera – 80/1 0.75 pts each way (7 places with BetFred)

Angel is a major player – he has a phenomenal record in the big four events compared to any regular tour events. The big stage really brings out the best in him. This is something the bookies have failed to realise I feel. His price does not reflect how much he relishes these big tournaments.

Angel has the ability to grind out a round of golf – something that will be critical at Oak Hill C.C.

His length and solid irons will be a good attribute here – especially considering the length of a number of the par fours. It will just be a case of controlling his game and keeping it in the short stuff for Angel, something I am sure he will be only too aware of.

#4 Harris English – 125/1 0.5 pts Each way (6 places – Paddy Power)

Harris is already a winner in 2013 – capturing the St Jude Classic. He seems to prosper on the typical classic golf courses that require good all around skills – something he ranks highly in for the season.

Like the others I am backing, he had a good week at Firestone coming into this week so is in a good place with his game.

He has strong iron play and regularly finds greens and can get hot with the putter.

He fits the bill and has played enough big events now to start contending in the most prestigious tournaments.

#5 Zach Johnson – 50/1 1 pt each way (6 places – general)

Zach is the golfer for technical golf courses. He has numerous wins on courses that need to be plotted around rather than just over powered. He has one of the best short games on tour and is highly accurate.

He may not have lit up the golfing world since his Masters victory – however he has racked up nine career victories and still has a lot more to come in my opinion.

His attitude and patience on the course will be a huge advantage on a course that will not yield many birdies. Just look at his win at Augusta which was one of the highest scoring Masters tournaments ever – he did not hit a single par 5 in two, and yet went on to win by two showing how he makes the most of his short game.

Thanks for reading and happy punting!

[golfbets]

The Open Championship (18th-21st of July 2013)

This year’s open is set at Muirfield in Scotland, where Ernie Els won the first of his two Open championships at in 2002.

Comments on the course from the events website:

"The course is renowned amongst golfers as being perhaps the fairest test of all the Open venues, with few of the quirky bounces and hidden danger that links courses often contain. Two circuits of nine rotate in opposite directions, the back nine looping inside the front nine, ensuring that the golfer is never faced with the same wind direction on two consecutive holes. As Jack Nicklaus once put it, “What you see is what you get."

Whether the honesty of the layout has had anything to do with it or not, the fact remains that Muirfield has an astonishing record of identifying the greatest golfers of the age, with a roll of honour which reads like a Who’s Who of golf over the last century, with winners including Els, Faldo, Watson, Nicklaus, Player, Hagen and Vardon."

The British summer has been surprisingly dry of late and will mean that the course is playing extremely fast with the fairways being rock hard. Greens should hold up though as they will be regularly watered. However, take a look at the rough at Muirfield in the picture below- as posted by Ian Poulter to twitter.

Unlike most Open championships - this years is forecasted to have very little wind. This is something that will really open up the field in my opinion. Usually when the wind blows on the typical links tracks it sorts the men from the boys.

It will be important I feel to back those that are comfortable in these types of conditions - hard and fast courses where accuracy and scrambling will be key. But also the ability to be creative when faced with difficult shots that will rarely be found in any other event on tour.

Two players that have already caught my eye are:

Thorbjorn Olesen.

The youngster is showing great potential with a great showing at this years Masters where he narrowly missed out on the playoff with Scott and Cabrera. He also finished in the top ten at Lytham in last years Open. He won the extremely windy Sicilian Open in 2012 and has had good showings at other links events.

(Thorbjorn playing with Tiger in the 2012 Open at Lytham St Anne’s - He fared well considering the hype around Tiger!)

The second player in my ante post picks is - Branden Grace.

Grace won four times last year, the only player to do so on the European Tour, several of which were on links courses. He also just missed out on winning the Scottish open following a playoff loss to Mickelson. Which may not be a bad thing - no winner of the Scottish has gone on to win the Open in the following week.

Above - Branden Grace loves at good links course! Wins at the Dunhill Links Champ (based on three links courses in Scotland) and the links at Fancourt in South Africa - a true test of golf.

My third pick is:

Sergio Garcia at 30/1 1 pt Each Way - Seven Places

Ah Sergio, the man who should have won so many majors already. Only one thing has stopped him in my opinion and that is himself! He came so close at Carnoustie when Padraig went on to triumph.

He is playing some solid golf at the minute but truth be told he always has done. It comes down to his mindset in the week of tournament. He hit the lead at Augusta in April, very briefly, that is and capitulated almost instantly. However, I feel that it is now or never for Sergio. If he does not win one in the next year to 18 months I do not think he ever will. 

He won the amateur championship here in 1998 and finished in the top ten back in 2002 when Ernie won - so he knows how to play the course.

His putter is arguably the best it ever has been with his unconventional style that works so well for him. His ball striking is still top drawer. The biggest risk is if he hits the front early - can he hold out?! I think he is worth the risk, especially with the seven places.

His Open form reads:

8 (2002) 10 MC 5 5 2 51 38 14 9 MC (2012)

Fourth Pick:

Dustin Johnson at 45/1 1 pt each way - Seven Places

Dustin's length will be a great advantage at this years event in my opinion for one simple reason - he can leave the driver in the bag. Dustin will be able to play the majority of the holes at Muirfield only hitting a long iron off the tee to ensure he stays out of the long stuff.

He has proven that he can play on these links style courses - he finished second in 2011 to Darren Clarke and 9th at Lytham last year. He also relishes the links at Pebble Beach whenever the tour visits in the US. He can play in the wind - he won at the crazily windy Kapalua earlier this year so don't be afraid if the forecast changes and the wind gets up come Sunday.

He is not in the greatest form of his life currently but the hype of the Open should focus him - well if it doesn't, nothing in golf will. He does have two top 20s in his last three starts though.

My Fifth pick is:

Miguel Angel Jimenez at 175/1 0.5 pts each way - Six Places

Top continental European at 25/1 1 pt each way - 4 places

This is a bit of an outside bet considering Miguel's not in the greatest form:

4   14  19  26 58  MC 

He missed the cut last week at the Scottish but this does not overly concern me. Miguel's ability to keep the ball in play and make putts if he gets on a run really makes his price attractive. 

He is also not too shabby on the links courses - he has been in the top 25 in three of the last four Opens including a tie for ninth at last years event at Lytham.

Since his injury at the end of last year he has shown glimpses of his old self - peaking with a top 4 at Wentworth. 

What is attractive is his impressive putting stats - averaging under 29 putts per round this year as well as hitting almost 70% of greens in regulation. 

Who knows what can happen at the Open - especially with the current trend of 40-somethings winning! (Clarke in 2011 and Els in 2012).

Good luck and enjoy the golf!

[golfbets]

Scottish Open at Castle Stuart

The Scottish Open is once again at Castle Stuart. A course that is a links type golf course, although it has been criticised for being too easy of a setup. This has lead to a few players feeling that this course is not the best warm up for the Open. However, even with that in mind there is still a fairly strong field with the likes of Mickelson, Ernie and Stenson. Jeev Milkha Singh won this tournament last year following a playoff with Francesco Molinari. Marc Warren narrowly missed out on the playoff. The event was very low scoring with both Singh and Molinari reaching 17 under par for the tournament. I do like a few players here though and they are: Richard Sterne at 40/1 (1 point each way) Richard had a good week last week, challenging Gmac for the title until a poor few holes at the end killed off his challenge. He has made it up to 34th in the world - a rise of over 500 places in roughly one year! Now he is injury free he is really playing some great golf - he is second is scoring average for the season and fourth in the race to Dubai rankings. Sterne has the game for Castle Stuart - with a host of wins on links style courses. He is also a great player on low scoring courses - as his past wins at -27, -14, and -18 obviously show. Quite simply 40/1 is a brilliant price for a man in top form. Also, the last time he finished second and played the week straight after - he won! Which can only be a good omen! My second pick is Francesco Molinari at 33/1 (1 point each way) Francesco's form has picked up recently with a top twenty at the notoriously difficult French Open and a top 35 at the Irish. But, in all honesty it was his price that attracted me to him this week. At 33/1 he is a great shout - especially considering his strong performance last year. He does only have three wins on tour so far but two of them were at -19 and -23, which shows, like Sterne, he can make the birdies needed to win on this low scoring course. More bets may follow, but for now I am sticking with these two.

[golfbets]

Wells Fargo Championship Preview

Quail Hollow, the venue for this years Wells Fargo Championship, is renowned as a superb test of golf. It is often strongly linked to Augusta, it is that good.

Taking a look at the past champs tells you that it is a quality golf course that tests the players, often bringing out the top players time after time. Some of the past winners here are Woods, Mickelson, Furyk, Kim, Singh and Fowler. All of which are very strong players when on the top of their game.

The course definitely favours the bigger hitters with hitting fairways not being as vital as many other courses on tour. What is imperative is hitting the greens and putting well from long distance.

With these factors in mind my first pick is Sergio Garcia.

Sergio, as most of us know, has some demons on the course but I think he is overcoming these more and more as he gains confidence on the greens. Just take a look at how he bounced back from a very poor second round at Augusta after leading after round one. He rallied and managed to post a top 10 after looking completely out of it.

His putting stats actually read as some of the best on tour from long distance - he is first in long putts (25 feet+) made per event on tour.

He is long enough to compete at Quail Hollow and has the accuracy with his irons that is required to make birdies on this long course.

My next pick is Lucas Glover, a past winner at Quail Hollow. This course is definitely one that has similar faces that reappear year after year at the top of the leader board. Lucas is most definitely one of those who feels at home on this course. He has won here and finished in the top 10 on 3 other occasions.

He is in good form - he was leading into round four last week. His final round left something to be desired but on this course he can really excel as he has done before.

My third pick is Charles Howell.

He is having a strong season so far but has hit a bad patch with two MCs in a row. However, he has the game to suit Quail Hollow - long off the tee and can handle the tricky course layout.

He has finished seventh here previously. That is his only top ten here in his last 10 attempts, however this does not put me off too much.

My fourth pick is Chris Kirk.

Chris is a very solid player and is in top form at the minute - coming off of four top 30 finishes in his last four.

Again he has power and can handle the tricky layout at Quail Hollow.

Final pick - Boo Weekley.

Boo is in a good streak of form currently - with 3 top 10s in his last 7 events including a tie for sixth last week.

He is one of the best ball strikers in the game and has a proven record at Quail Hollow - finishing 11th in 2009.

He is streaky and can be very unpredictable but his recent form is encouraging.

Staking plan:

Sergio Garcia - 1.5 points each way 28/1

Lucas Glover - 0.75 points each way 66/1

Charles Howell III - 0.5 points each way 80/1

Chris Kirk - 0.75 points each way 90/1

Boo Weekley - 0.5 points each way 80/1

Total staked: 8 points

[golfbets]

Ballantines Championship - 25th - 28 April

Felipe Aguilar - 40/1 1 pt each way

Felipe is in great form coming to Korea after losing out in a playoff in Spain. He had a top 10 at Blackrock last year which saw Bernd Wiesberger dominate.

He is driving it very well and has the length to contend at this reasonably demanding course.

The winner here in the past has hit lots of greens and had a solid long game as well as makings few putts.

His strong finish at El Saler last week should indicate that he is on top of his game as it is a very demanding test of golf.

Lets hope his strong form continues.

Second pick - Julien Quesne - 80/1 0.75 pts each way.

Julien has had four top tens already this year and I feel he can contend again in this weak field.

Like Felipe, Julien is driving it well - ranking well in accuracy and distance, averaging 70% of fairways and 290+ yards in driving distance. He also hits a lot of greens and can make some putts.

I fancy a long shot for this week with such a poor quality field and Julien could well shine at a good price.

[golfbets]

The 2013 Masters Preview (11th-14th of April)

Here it is again, the best tournament in all of golf (in my opinion). The Masters is the first major of the year and, as always, is hosted at Augusta National Golf Club. This venue is really special and is the absolute pinnacle of the golfing world.

There are a number of patterns and trends amongst the recent winners of this tournament. For example, rookies do not fair well at Augusta with course experience being vital.

Driving distance is also a factor at the Masters with the last five winners all averaging over 290 yards - just take a look at the last four winners - Watson, Schwartzel, Phil and Angel - all of which are renowned for big hitting. This factor is also increased if the course is particularly wet with the ball not running out as far.

What is also key is how the players play the par 5s. This is because these offer up the best chance of birdies around this long golf course.

Course experience is key mainly due to the very tricky greens at Augusta National which often run as fast as 14 on the stimp meter. The combination of the undulations and fast greens make putting a nightmare for those who are not used to them - hence making course experience vital and thus ruling out rookies from the picture.

Age is also important here - only one player in recent times has won from the over 40s category - and that was Mark O'Meara in 1998.

Another factor that seems to have some influence when looking at past champions is a link to the South of America - Bubba, Schwartzel, Phil, Immelman, Johnson and Tiger all have some ties to the southern US states - whether that is where they stay while they reside in the states, where they played their college golf or their place of birth - or a combo of all three.

With these in mind I have made several picks - some of which are influenced by all or atleast some of the factors mentioned previously.

Peter Hanson @ 100/1 (Paddy Power and Sky Bet)

Peter's price looks way too big considering his good form on the PGA Tour this year as well as his third place finish at Augusta last year which has really seemed to elevate his game.

Since that third place he has won the BMW Masters where he held off Rory McIlroy in the final round. 

Peter also has the power to contend at Augusta, which is a very important factor when you consider that the last five champions all averaged drives of over 290 yards for the season. Peter is currently averaging 292 yards (as of the 23rd of March).

Stake: 0.5 pts E/W @ 100/1 - six places each way with Paddy Power

Second is Sergio Garcia @ 40/1 (Paddy Power - 6 places)

I, along with a few others I am sure, am astounded that Sergio has still never broke his major duck. I think he has all the assets to end that run at Augusta this year. 

He averages over 290 yards and when he is on with the driver, he is arguably one of the best drivers in all of golf. 

Admittedly his achilles heal is the putter - but with his new 'pencil' grip that has vastly improved - ranking 30th in strokes gained putting this year.

He also ranks sixth in par 5 scoring which will be key at this years Masters as it always is with these presenting the best opportunities to make birdies or even eagles.

For me it is down to Sergio's temperament when in contention as to whether he can win here or not. He is always too hard on himself and unless that improves he will never win one of the big ones. Hopefully this week will be when he realises that!

Stake: 1 pt E/W @ 40/1 - six places with Paddy Power.

Third Pick: Dustin Johnson @ 33/1 - Paddy Power

Dustin is destined to win a major very soon. He is the second best player under thirty in my opinion (with Rory being the obvious best). He has already won seven times on the PGA tour and had a number of close shaves in majors - the Open and PGA to name a few.

After a great start to the year at Kapalua he has had a quieter time, but a return to form at the Houston Open (on a track similar to Augusta) tells me his game is back where it needs to be heading into Augusta.

He has got bundles of power and can tear apart the par 5s on this course. He also has the links to the southern US states which seems to be a pattern in winners enclosure at Augusta National - being from South Carolina and residing in Florida.

His putting is questionable at times when in contention but this is improving all the time as he is in contention more and more. 

Let's just hope his head is focused on the golf and not his new girlfriend...

Stake: 1.5 pts E/W @ 33/1 - six places each way

Final each way outright bet is: Keegan Bradley @ 33/1

Keegan is a quality all around golfer and it could be argued that he has few flaws in his game. A strong showing in the Ryder Cup and building upon his PGA championship win has told us that.

Keegan is a great ball striker and can get very hot with the putter. I did fancy him last year but his lack of course experience put me off but now he has played Augusta I feel he has a great chance and his price is fair.

He ranks second in par 5 scoring on tour (behind only Woods) and averages over 300 yards off the tee as well as living in Florida - which has a similar feel to Georgia.

Stake: 1.5 pts E/W @ 33/1

Keegan, Sergio and Dustin all ranked very highly stats wise - only behind the sublime Woods. What put me off Woods was the price as well as the fact that the number ranked golfer often fails to win at Augusta - with Woods the only one to do it whilst carrying the number one golfer tag.

A long shot I like is Kevin Streelman. He is available at 500+ on Betfair and could be a real back to lay prospect. I will wait til closer to the time (Wednesday evening) to pull the trigger on backing him as his price should rise to maybe 600. 

[golfbets]

Shell Houston Open (28-31st March)

Only a short write up for this one due to time constraints.

Main bet: Steve Stricker 1.5pts E/W 20/1 (price on Monday) now 14/1

Steve is in great form with his last three results reading 2 - 5 - 2. He as severely shortened his schedule this year, but it seems to be paying off.

He also has a strong record at Redstone with several top 12s.

Bet #2: Jimmy Walker @ 55/1 1 pt E/W

Jimmy is renowned for his poor ability to get into serious contention. However, I do feel a win is around the corner for Jimmy. He is in imperious form and the course at Redstone should suit him well.

Bet #3: 3pts win Rory McIlroy @ 10/1

Rory is on his way back and will likely never be this price again in a regular tour event. A text from Tiger telling him to "get his finger out of his ass and win this week" should be all the motivation the young Irishman needs.

[golfbets]

Trophee Hassan II Preview (28th-31st March)

This week sees the European Tour visit Morocco for another installment of the Trophee Hassan event.

The top of the market sees an out of form Francesco Molinari favorite who I am happy to bet against and several other players who cannot be regarded as prolific in any sense - such as Luiten, Larrazabal, Fleetwood and E. Molinari - only Edoardo is a threat here - but I do not particularly agree with his price.

The course at Golf du Palais Royal is a fairly short one this week, measuring just 6844 yards and is still a par 72. There are six par 4s under 400 yards which should see fairly low scoring.

The greens are described as small and undulating with deep bunkers protecting them.

Michael Hoey triumphed here last year at -17, which tells me that birdies will come thick and fast, that is if the wind stays calm.

I will only have two bets this week in what is a poor field.

The first is Scott Jamieson at 40/1 (1 pt E/W).

Scott is having a brilliant year following his win at the shortened Nelson Mandela championship at the end of 2012.

He has followed up this victory with a second at the Volvo Golf champions event as well as three other top 25s. One of which was at a WGC and another was last week in Malaysia - another short course.

Scott’s good form and new confidence on tour combine to make him a great price at 40/1, in my opinion.

My second and final bet is Raphael Jacquelin at 40/1 (1 pt E/W).

Raphael is in steady form - three top 35s and a tie for 16th in his last six events, in which he finished no worse than T42nd.

I am convinced that it is only a matter of time before the French man wins again.

This week suits Raphael to a tee with it being a short course requiring birdies - which he has proven he can do winning at -23,-12 & -10.

Raphael's swing is really something to behold. It looks so simple and easy - one of my favorite in golf. I just cannot believe he ever hits a bad shot with such an easy swing! 

He is currently putting better than he has done for a few years but needs to hit a few more fairways and is maintaining his strong iron play this season. If all of his game clicks this week I think he can give anyone is this field a run for their money.

[golfbets]

Masters Ante Post Bets

Peter Hanson @ 100/1 (Paddy Power and Sky Bet) 

Price looks way too big considering his good form on the PGA Tour this year as well as his third place finish at Augusta last year which has really seemed to elevate his game.

Since that third place he has won the BMW Masters where he held off Rory McIlroy in the final round. 

Peter also has the power to contend at Augusta, which is a very important factor when you consider that the last five champions all averaged drives of over 290 yards for the season. Peter is currently averaging 292 yards (as of the 23rd of March).

Stake: 0.5 pts E/W @ 100/1

Another player I like is Jason Day - he is available at 50/1 currently but I will hang fire for better E/W terms and possibly inflated prices close to the event.

A long shot I like is Kevin Streelman. He is available at 400+ on Betfair and could be a real back to lay prospect. Again though I will wait til closer to the time to pull the trigger on backing him as his price should rise - unless he has a string of good results between now and Augusta.

[golfbets]

Tampa Bay Champ and Avantha Masters Summary

Sorry no time for a blog this week but a few picks to go at:

Tampa:

1 pt E/W Jason Day @ 35/1

1 pt E/W Scott Piercy @ 35/1

0.5 pts E/W Sang Moon Bae @ 100/1

Avantha Masters:

1 pt E/W Raphael Jacquelin @ 50/1

[golfbets]

WGC Cadillac Championship (7th-10th March)

This weeks event is limited to the top sixty players in the world - with a few special invitations going out to various others. The strong field - minus Snedeker is expected with this being a very rich and hugely weighted world ranking event.

The venue for this week is the Blue Monster course at Doral. Last years winner was the Englishman Justin Rose - who I am also backing to win again this year. This course sees the cream rise to the top in my opinion with a history of solid players and major winners in the winners circle - with Woods, Ogilvy, Watney, Els and Mickelson all claiming the top spot here previously.

Interesting stats of previous winners show that players who win at Doral arrive in good form with a top 10 in previous starts. Birdie making is key here and thus a hot putter is vital, along with a liking for Bermuda greens.

Pick number #1: Justin Rose @ 18/1 1.5pts WIN

Rose is in great form, coming here with four top 20s in his last four events, including two top 5s. He obviously has the game for this course, as he won he last year.

What will be key for Justin is whether or not he makes enough putts, he will always give himself the chances with his solid tee to green game. What is encouraging is his strong finish last week in tough conditions leading to a tie for fourth at the tough Honda Classic.

Pick number 2: Nick Watney @ 40/1 1 pt E/W

Nick is another past champion here at Doral and has a strong liking for Bermuda greens. He has a scoring average of 69.13 around this course, which is the best of any player.

Although he is not in the best of form I still think that his impeccable record at Doral means that he is a great 40/1 shot. And, after all, his win at the end of last year at the Barclays came after a similar streak of mediocre form.

Pick number 3: Rickie Fowler @ 40/1 1 pt E/W

Rickie is well over due a win in my book, and although he is sometimes a tricky one to judge, I think the 40/1 on offer this week is good value considering a decent showing on his last outing at the Honda Classic.

With the recent release of the second installment of the Golf Boys video series, who knows what could happen - shortly after the first video Bubba, Rickie and Hunter all took a step up in their careers - may be it is coincidence or may be the extra attention spurred them on! I am not really backing him for this reason though, just to make sure you don’t think I am losing it!

My final pick is Geoff Ogilvy @ 55/1 0.5 pts E/W

Geoff only got into this weeks event with a strong showing last week, however this good run of form could easily continue into an event that Geoff has won before.

Ogilvy is a top notch player who has admittedly been out of the spotlight for a few years but I do think this is set to turn for the Aussie who is showing signs of his best golf that won him the US Open and several other big events including three WGC events.

At 55/1 he is a good bit of value, which I feel also accounts for the little bit of an unknown as to whether his game is fully back to its best just yet.

Late addition: Phil Mickelson 1.5 pts each way @ 28/1

[golfbets]

WGC Accenture Match Play Betting Preview (20th-24th Feb)

WGC Accenture Match Play Betting Preview

First thing you should know about this event is that it is a Wednesday start, as opposed to the regular Thursdays on the PGA tour. The format is unusual in that is one of the rare occasions that we see matchplay on tour. This format can throw up a few surprises and certainly has done in the past - with many big names suffering defeats in the first rounds.

The course that is the venue for the most prestigious match-play tournament in golf is the Ritz-Carlton golf club in Arizona. It is one of the longest on tour at around 7800 yards. However, looking at the past champions here, it is not all about length. What is key is hitting the greens and solid putting, especially those short ones that can win or lose a match.

This week I am going to chose three players, all of which are in different brackets. Looking at the most recent champions, the winner has been in the age range of late twenties to early thirties, this may be due to the sheer amount of golf that is played over the course of this event - so don’t back a fat guy! Rookies also tend not to fair too well in this event, with the champions of recent having played this event and course multiple times.

One name that really sticks out is Martin Kaymer and at 40/1 (4 places), he is a stand out bet for me. He ticks all the boxes in terms of his age, strong matchplay record (Ryder Cup obviously springs to mind) and his good record at this event (making the final in 2011. In the past Kaymer has shown played some of his best golf around desert courses and I fully expect that to continue.

Advised: 1 pt E/W @ 40/1 (Generally avaialble)

The next name that comes to mind is Matt Kuchar, at 40/1. Kuchar’s record here is very good with a third and a fifth here in the last two years. He ranks well in the putting stats and has a strong tee to green game that can see him challenge any opponent in this format. Kuchar also has a lot of experience when it comes to matchplay - being involved in the Ryder Cup and President’s cup on numerous occasions.

Advised 1 pt E/W @ 40/1 (StanJames)

Finally, my last pick is Charl Schwartzel at 20/1. Charl is arguably one of the hottest players in the world right now, only second to maybe Snedeker (who is not playing this week due to injury). His last five events have yielded two wins and three other top 3s. On this form I cannot ignore his chances here. As long as he makes more short putts than he did last week, where narrowly missed out on a playoff because of a few short ones missed, he can really take it to the others in the field.

Advised: 1.5 pts E/W @ 20/1 (Widely available)

Another player I liked but am not advising is Justin Rose at 28/1. I am not advising him solely because I like Matt Kuchar’s chances a little more and they are both in the same bracket which means it would be a little daft to back both!

Best of luck this week, let’s hope that the good run continues!

My twitter account: @GolfBetting_