45 features, 15 shorts. Of all the nominees, I managed to watch 39 of the features and 10 of the shorts. Well short of my best years (I watched all nominees in all categories in 2010 and 2013, and all but a couple in 11/12. I'm still pretty pleased with how many I managed to fit in given that I stopped reviewing actively in August of last year, though. Even with fewer of the total movies in my brain than in the past, this is still a fun exercise in trying to figure out the voters' brains. Use these picks to try to win the pool at your party tonight at your own risk: my ability to get inside those brains is historically bad, given that 1) I don't pay much attention to the Oscar oddsmaking and 2) I usually don't want to admit that a majority will vote for certain films I find especially undeserving. (Birdman, I'm looking at you.) Visual Effects: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Guardians of the Galaxy Interstellar X-Men: Days of Future Past Who’s going to win: Interstellar Who should win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Nolan's noble failure is the most Oscars-y of the picks here, and I think this'll be consolation for Nolan not making a film that competed in the higher profile awards as many might have hoped before the film came out. As many problems as I had with it, it IS visually stunning, and even more laudable given that the effects are (mostly? entirely?) practical instead of digital. I won't be unhappy if Interstellar takes the prize, but at the same time, I think the bigger achievement is creating apes that work not just as effects, but as characters in Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. Makeup and Hairstyling: Foxcatcher The Grand Budapest Hotel Guardians of the Galaxy Who’s going to win: Grand Budapest Who should win: Grand Budapest Most ostentatious use of hair and makeup may go to Steve Carrell's prosthetic nose and Mark Ruffalo's artificial hairline (let's not get into those frosted tips for Channing Tatum), but Budapest takes the confectionary cake for Tilda Swinton's transformation alone. Adrien Brody's Kramer-esque mop is the icing. Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel The Imitation Game Interstellar Into the Woods Mr. Turner Who’s going to win: Grand Budapest Who should win: Grand Budapest This one has to be even more of a lock for Grand Budapest than the previous one given that this is Wes Anderson's usual attention to visual detail turned up to 111. Into the Woods looked far to artificial, like an intermediary between a stage set and a film, and the Imitation Game is standard issue WWII period piece. Budapest is something entirely extraordinary. Dark horse: Mr. Turner's gorgeous naturalistic design. Costume: The Grand Budapest Hotel Inherent Vice Into the Woods Maleficent Mr. Turner Who’s going to win: Grand Budapest Who should win: Grand Budapest Everything I said about the production design of GBH applies to the costumes as well. Sound Mixing: American Sniper Birdman Interstellar Unbroken Whiplash Who’s going to win: American Sniper Who should win: Whiplash Who should win that wasn't nominated: The Babadook Big, explodey action flicks tend to have the edge in this category, and I think the academy will want to give *something* to the only best picture nominee that was a huge financial success. I think this'll be it, at the expense of the amazing, frenzied sound mix in Whiplash. I will make a special plea for The Babadook here, as the film which used sound most effectively of any movie I saw all year by a long, long margin. That film should be taught in classes on how to use sound to manipulate emotion and create psychological unease. Sound Editing: American Sniper Birdman The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies Interstellar Unbroken Who’s going to win: American Sniper Who should win: The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies Ditto my thoughts on mixing here. Only given the scope of the sound elements that had to be created for the Hobbit, I'm going to give that one my own pick here, but the Academy is going to go with Sniper since Hobbit isn't much loved by anyone. Original Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel The Imitation Game Interstellar Mr. Turner The Theory of Everything Who’s going to win: The Theory of Everything Who should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel Who should win that wasn't nominated: Under the Skin (or Inherent Vice) Another two nominations for probably the most ubiquitous composer of the past decade in Desplat, and I think he's going to go away empty handed yet again. Theory of Everything's score is, like the movie, inspiration by numbers and it'll get the sentimental vote, despite Desplat's score for Grand Budapest being much more inventive and integral to that film. If you want to listen to film music that will really knock your socks off (and give you nightmares), go check out Mica Levi's Under the Skin soundtrack. And sigh a heavy sigh for Jonny Greenwood, who I think Academy voters must think of as not a "real" composer yet since he is/was a pop musician. Take heart, Jonny, Mark Mothersbaugh and Trent Reznor eventually threw off their pop stigma, you'll get there. Original Song: Everything is Awesome - The Lego Movie Glory - Selma Grateful - Beyond the Lights I'm Not Gonna Miss You - Glen Campbell...I'll Be Me Lost Stars - Begin Again Who’s going to win: Glory Who should win: Everything is Awesome First up, this is one of my underseen categories. I haven't seen the latter three nominees at all. But then again, none of those really have a chance, do they? This is all about which movie that got snubbed elsewhere will get their consolation here, right? I'm going with "Everything is Awesome", The Lego Movie's earworm of an anthem, that's actually part of the fabric of the movie and the world it creates. I'll always default to songs that add to the movie narratively over background songs, which is what "Glory" is to Selma. All that said, I can't begrudge Selma a win, given how thoroughly it got screwed elsewhere. Live Action Short Film: Aya Boogaloo and Graham Butter Lamp Parvaneh The Phone Call Who’s going to win: The Phone Call Who should win: Butter Lamp The Phone Call is in english, is tasteful but emotional, deals with death, and has recognizable actors. Set and match. I'm being dismissive, but I really do think The Phone Call is quite good, mostly because of the always fantastic Sally Hawkins. But for inventiveness and memorability, the static camera tableus in motion of Butter Lamp were most memorable for me. Documentary (short subject): Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 Joanna Our Curse The Reaper (La Parka) Who’s going to win: Crisis Hotline Who should win: No idea I have no opinion here, as I didn't get to see any of the documentary shorts. Based on the descriptions this seems like a safe bet, though. Documentary Feature: CitizenFour Finding Vivian Maier Last Days in Vietnam The Salt of the Earth Virunga Who’s going to win: CitizenFour Who should win: Finding Vivian Maier Who should win that's not nominated: The Possibilities are Endless I'm not in love with any of these, though I like all of them. The Vivian Maier doc struck me the most because of its detective aspect, which is something I always enjoy in a documentary, but CitizenFour seems to be the one with the most buzz and attention. I'd have loved a nomination for The Possibilities are Endless, though, a beautifully impressionistic take on the stroke recovery of Edwyn Collins. Animated Short Film: The Bigger Picture The Dam Keeper Feast Me and My Moulton A Single Life Who’s going to win: Feast Who should win: The Bigger Picture Disney is hard to bet against here. And Feast is a sweet and nicely made essentially silent short, but the real dazzle and emotional impact for me was in the mix of stop motion and 2D animation in The Bigger Picture that had me constantly amazed at how they accomplished what I was seeing, even as I also was completely engaged in its very human story. Animated Feature Film: Big Hero 6 The Boxtrolls How to Train Your Dragon 2 Song of the Sea The Tale of Princess Kaguya Who’s going to win: Big Hero 6 Who should win: The Boxtrolls Who should win that's not nominated: The Lego Movie I saw all of these except for Song of the Sea, which disappointed me as I was a fan of Tomm Moore's Secret of Kells. And passing over the obvious snub of the hilarious and beautifully realized Lego Movie, my vote would go to The Boxtrolls, out of my love for stop motion and it being a fun adventure. That said, I did really like Big Hero 6, so can't be disappointed if it wins. Of course, Dragon has a very good chance here, and while I enjoyed that fine, it's at the bottom of my ranking of all of these. Film Editing: American Sniper Boyhood The Grand Budapest Hotel The Imitation Game Whiplash Who’s going to win: Boyhood Who should win: Whiplash Editing together 12 years of footage into a coherent narrative is a herculean task and deserves recognition, and I'll be happy if it takes home the prize. But Whiplash is a dizzying experience in all the best ways, and a big part of that comes down to the editing, which heightens the chaos in a sonically and emotionally chaotic movie. Cinematography: Birdman The Grand Budapest Hotel Ida Mr. Turner Unbroken Who’s going to win: Birdman Who should win: Mr. Turner Emmanuel Lebuzki's work shooting the constant fluidity of Birdman is the primary reason to see this mostly empty film, apart from Keaton's performance, and I'd be inclined to hand it the award myself even givne my mixed feelings on the movie...if not for the existence of Mr. Turner, in which Dick Pope takes a painterly approach to digital cinematography and makes perhaps the most gorgeously shot film made without film yet in the young history of digital cinema. Foreign Language Film: Ida (Poland) Leviathan (Russaia) Tangerines (Estonia) Timbuktu (Mauritania) Wild Tales (Argentina) Who’s going to win: Ida Who should win: Ida Who should win that wasn't nominated: Force Majeure I've heard talk of Wild Tales being a possible winner here, but I don't know that it's gravely black comedy is going to play that well with voters, as entertaining as I might have found it. I think Ida and Leviathan have a much better shot. (I didn't see Tangerines or Timbuktu.) Leviathan's trenchant criticism of both religion and Russia's repressive government should play well. It's easy to vote for a movie that takes very pointedly puts a picture of Vladimir Putin on the wall to highlight the fact that the character who has it on the wall is morally repugnant. Ida, however, has the lighter touch, the more human story, and higher profile due to it also being nominated for its gorgeous black and white cinematography in another category. All that said, Force Majeure is a powerhouse of an experience, and I can't for the life of me figure out how it didn't even garner a nomination. Adapted Screenplay: American Sniper The Imitation Game Inherent Vice The Theory of Everything Whiplash Who’s going to win: Whiplash Who should win: Inherent Vice Who should win that wasn't nominated: Under the Skin The Imitation Game is probably the slight favorite here, but screenplay is so often the place to reward upstarts, that it feels like a bad bet to go with the establishment pick of this bunch. That disqualifies Theory of Everything, too, though that's also disqualified for being everything that's wrong with biopic screenplay writing. The Imitation Game is also going to have a problem given all the bad press over the past month about how it betrays not just the facts of many of the lives it adapts, but also the spirit of them. I think it's a well constructed screenplay, but I can't help but think less of it the more I read the actual events. In any case, Whiplash is, I think, going to take it for giving JK Simmons all those great words to say that will end up netting him the best supporting actor award. I think Inherent Vice is a stronger work of adaptation, taking a difficult source book and making it sing -- with all its confusion and trippiness -- on screen. And I'll also put in another plug here for Under the Skin, which had no chance given how much of it is dialogue free and how much of the dialogue that was there was improvised, but as an exercise in showing just how to tranfer literature to an entirely different art form, it's unmatched this year. Original Screenplay: Birdman Boyhood Foxcatcher The Grand Budapest Hotel Nightcrawler Who’s going to win: The Grand Budapest Hotel Who should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel GBH was tied for most nominations, but isn't going to take home any of the most high profile ones, so in addition to the awards for its visual aesthetic, it'll win for its snappy screwball dialogue. I just really hope that Wes Anderson's acceptance speech is just as funny as the one he gave when he won the Writers Guild awards last week. Supporting Actor: Robert Duvall - The Judge Ethan Hawke - Boyhood Edward Norton - Birdman Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher JK Simmons - Whiplash Who’s going to win: Simmons Who should win: Simmons The slam dunkiest of slam dunks for this Oscar, and who am I to argue? (Though Mark Ruffalo is VERY good, probably the best thing in Foxcatcher.) Simmons goes from character actor who is that guy you always recognize in stuff to this generation's Sergeant Hartman. Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette - Boyhood Laura Dern - Wild Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game Emma Stone - Birdman Meryl Streep - Into the Woods Who’s going to win: Arquette Who should win: Arquette Arquette is really the heart of Boyhood, and that's going to be recognized here. I'd be shocked if she didn't get this one. Best Actor: Steve Carell - Foxcatcher Bradley Cooper- American Sniper Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game Michael Keaton - Birdman Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything Who’s going to win: Keaton Who should win: Keaton Who should win that wasn't nominated: Ralph Fiennes for Grand Budapest or David Oyelowo for Selma Tough call for who's going to win between Keaton and Redmayne, and the challenging/transformative aspect of Redmayne's turn seems tailor made for an Oscar. But Keaton's performance just seems more nervy, and while I wouldn't call Redmayne's performance an imitation, it does certainly have that aspect. I just found more depth to what Keaton was doing. Ironic considering how shallow Birdman is. Wildcard working against Redmayne: all the unintentional laughs he's getting for his performance in Jupiter Ascending. But really, this shouldn't be the discussion. This should be a neck and neck race between not those two, but between Fiennes and Oyelowo, both of whom are better than this entire field. Best Actress: Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything Julianne Moore - Still Alice Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl Reese Witherspoon - Wild Who’s going to win: Moore Who should win: Pike I'm a little sad that Moore is finally going to pick up her award for such a forgettable little PSA of a film. Let's not trivialize her performance; it's powerful, it's considered, it's nuanced, it's a tiny masterpiece just like just about every time Moore steps in front of a camera. But as much as she transcends the material, the material is still resolutely pedestrian. Pike's performance also transcends the material, but in the same way that the entirety of Gone Girl transcends itself. This is pulp fiction all the way, but done with such style and class that it's easy to forget just how lurid it all is. And that's what makes it such an interesting film, and Pike is the greatest example of it. My sentimental pick here though is Marion Cotillard, who gives a performance far better than the one she actually won for back in 2007 for La Vie en Rose, and in a much more challenging role. She has to basically find new ways to play the same scene a dozen different times, and does it, giving life to a scenario that could easily have become tedious. Directing: Alejandro Iñárritu - Birdman Richard Linklater - Boyhood Foxcatcher - Bennett Miller The Grand Budapest Hotel - Wes Anderson Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game Who’s going to win: Iñárritu Who should win: Anderson I've resigned myself to the fact that the visual flash of Iñárritu in Birdman is going to win out over the two people here I'd much rather see win. My pick is Anderson, because GBH is my favorite film of the year, and I think that's really his achievement at the end of the day. Few directors maintain as much rigorous control over every image and every performance onscreen as Anderson, and this is his movie through and through. But realistically this is between Iñárritu and Linklater, and I just think Boyhood is a much greater achievement directorially. Even just beyond the logistics of telling a story like this over such a long period of filming, the greatest challenge is to know, as a director, the tone of the performances you're looking for and keeping those consistent over more than a decade. That's a true feat, and is in line with what has always been Linklater's greatest skill: his humanism, and translating that into storytelling onscreen. Best Picture: American Sniper Birdman Boyhood The Grand Budapest Hotel The Imitation Game Selma The Theory of Everything Whiplash Who’s going to win: Boyhood Who should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel Here's where my sentimentality gets the better of me. I can see past my attachement to GBH long enough to know that it has no chance of winning. But despite the gnawing feeling in my gut that Birdman is going to win, I still can't not pick the film that I WANT to win out of the two that have the best shot at it. So I've gotta go with Boyhood. And look: I don't hate Birdman. I had a good time watching it. It's funny, it's entertaining, it's visually dazzling. But it's also empty-headed, faux-profound in all the worst ways, and even worse than all that, it really thinks that its Super Important and Has Things to Say That You Should All be Listening To. Boyhood has a central character who thinks he's profound in all the ways that adolescents think they're profound. But it's a coming of age story, and Linklater and the movie itself are smart enough to know that kids are full of shit when they wax philosophical and adults aren't any better. Basically we're all going through this life trying, and stumbling, as we try to live and be happy. It's just a long snapshot of that process, and is profound in its simplicity. Birdman, on the other hand, isn't saying anything any more mature or deep than a freshman liberal arts major, but thinks that it has capital-A Answers. It's a fun movie when it forgets about all that, but for more than half its running time, it's busy congratulating itself for being important. So I'll take Boyhood, and inevitably find myself really angry that a movie that I don't even hate ends up winning later tonight.
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