What Andy Burnham’s Dramatic Return to Parliament Might Mean for British Party Politics
IN THE end, the Makerfield by-election wasn’t even close. Despite all the chatter about the constituency being “Reform-leaning”, based on an over interpretation of Farage’s party’s seizure of all but one of the council seats being contested in Makerfield last month, Andy Burnham swept Reform U.K. aside, attracting 10,000 more votes than the hapless Robert Kenyon on a nearly 60% turnout. Naturally, much of the immediate commentary after the by-election has focused on the imminence of a Burnham bid for the Labour leadership, the end of the beleaguered regime of Keir Starmer and the arrival, astoundingly, of Britain's seventh Prime Minister in ten years. But away from the soap opera speculations on the merits of a leadership contest, as opposed to a coronation, the composition of a possible Burnham cabinet, and what Burnham's own, rather elastic definitions of "Manchesterism" actually means, there are more profound questions about what Burnham Labour's emphatic win in Makerfield means for the several political parties now competing for power in the UK and the extent to which the prevailing narrative of the end of the two party system, and the onward march of their insurgent replacements, may now change. How will the Burnham Factor therefore alter British party politics?
The oft-stated observation that the Makerfield by-election was one of the most consequential in, at least postwar, British political history was absolutely correct - and most markedly for the Labour Party. I have blogged several times over the last two years on the reasons why Keir Starmer’s approach to government and political strategy was so lacking that it could reduce a party with one of the largest seat majorities ever achieved into a desperate shadow version of that general election winner in just two years, giving every impression of clinging onto power by the skin of its teeth. The carefully crafted narrative - particularly on the Right of politics - that Reform U.K. was on an inevitable march to power, with neither Labour nor Conservatives having any answer to Farage’s populist appeal, would have been utterly vindicated by a Reform win in Makerfield. A defeat of Labour's most popular and effective politician would have thrown Labour into existential crisis. Starmer would have refused to resign and Labour would have descended into a civil war as a bitter leadership contest involving Starmer, Wes Streeting and very likely Angela Rayner, tore the party apart and paralysed government possibly for months thereafter. Farage would have been completely rejuvenated and a conviction that he would be Prime Minister after the next General Election would have settled on British politics.
But instead Farage lost badly. In a seat, despite its tradition as a Labour stronghold, that had, like many other post-industrial northern and midlands towns, moved to the right in search of an alternative story to neoliberal economics and low expectations, Reform’s anti-migrant rhetoric failed to land with sufficient voters, most of whom clearly preferred a message of hope and positive change from a politician who, in the end, they viewed as one of their own. That sensation of hope now suffuses the Labour Party as it finally throws off the stultifying embrace of Starmerite fiscal rules, limited ambition and obsessive party factionalism. In Andy Burnham, Labour appears to have found a smiling assassin - the cheery northerner with a killer’s instinct, whether deployed against right wing blow hands or vision-free Prime Ministers. With the return of Burnham to Parliament, Labour is beginning to believe in itself again.
Inevitably, too many people within Labour and journalists sympathetic to the government, are beginning to project onto Burnham what they wish to see happen, rather than assessing what Burnham himself has actually said and done. The Prime Minister in waiting can be frustratingly vague about how he would actually re-set Labour and what policy priorities he would pursue. There is no doubt Burnham has moved markedly to the left since his days as a Blairite minister as he discovered the power of a neo-municipal socialism within the Greater Manchester Mayoralty, but “Manchesterism” - more vibe than ideology - has a remarkably New Labour feel, with its embrace of public/private partnerships and its encouragement of business growth, sometimes at the expense of social goals, particularly in the realm of housing within the city of Manchester itself. But Burnham’s belief in public ownership of vital industries (or public “control” he would put it), along with a fierce commitment to devolved power and regeneration of the post-industrial north, seem genuine enough and comprise a far more convincing social democratic vision than anything espoused by Starmer or Rachel Reeves. It may well be that the Labour Party has reached the end of its century long road as a sole party of government and that no new leadership, no matter how energetic, ambitious and persuasive, can reverse this particular tide of history, but under Burnham, the party could yet prove the premature political obituaries wrong.
If the Makerfield contest was consequential for Labour, it was not much less so for Reform. The party remains stuck on 25% in the national opinion polls; Farage cannot escape the whiff of corruption hanging over his £5m “gift” from Thai-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne; his Home Affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf is getting increasingly absurd and extreme in his shock jock statements on social media, and the ethno nationalists of Rupert Lowe’s revenge project (otherwise known as Restore Britain) keep nibbling into Reform’s racist core vote. Deeper analysis of Reform’s success in the 2026 local elections has also indicated that its share of the vote fell relative to 2025, and its seat haul owed much to low turnout out and Labour losing votes to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats, with First Past The Post favouring the populists: there was remarkably little switch from Labour to Reform in terms of voters - it was the seats that changed hands exaggerating Reform’s seeming success at the expense of Labour.
So it proved at Makerfield. Reform’s tactic of choosing a local candidate to take on the carpet bagger from Manchester wasn’t a bad tactic in itself, but in Robert Kenyon the party chose someone too inexperienced to cope with the Labour electoral machine or Burnham’s personal brand, and hopelessly compromised by his misogynistic social media history. Reform’s habitual inability to field credible candidates was not enough however in itself to sink its campaign. What did for it was that once again, as in Caerphilly to the benefit of Plaid Cmyru and in Gorton and Denton to the benefit of the Greens, Burnham this time was able to coalesce the anti-Reform vote around himself and for Labour. This is the truly worrying message for Reform: in an electoral contest that really matters, i.e. a Parliamentary election, tactical voting will take place to elect whichever anti Reform candidate is best equipped to beat them. Farage’s nightmare is that come the next general election this could happen in constituency after constituency even without a Labour revival under Burnham or the threatened presence of Restore Britain on the ballot papers. The predictions of 360 Reform seats at the next general election now look wildly overestimated. Farage may be lucky to secure 100 MPs next time.
For the Greens, the arrival of Burnham is a mixed blessing. To Zack Polanski’s credit, the Greens did not campaign in Makerfield to avoid splitting the anti Reform vote. Green support would probably have vanished anyway, but the decision was a welcome sign of what might become a more co-operative brand of politics in a multi party world. Polanski needs Labour to recover to some degree to enable it to form a minority government at the next election reliant on Green support, conditions and influence. What the Greens do not need is for Labour to increase its support under Burnham at their expense, reducing their number of seats won target to less than 30 at the next election. In those cicumstances, a Labour minority government would likely ignore the Greens and look to the more biddable Liberal Democrats as a potential government partner. Much of this is outside Polanski's hands, but early signs are not good. the Greens are currently polling at 15%, three points below Labour and the Tories, and indicative polling of a scenario in which Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister, suggests Labour could add 19% to its vote, disproportionately from the Greens.
The Conservatives, despite their surprise by-election win in Aberdeen South, remain effectively politically moribund. Commentators have stopped remarking on single figure Tory vote shares in by elections and yet more shifts of the Conservative vote to Reform at the locals. Kemi Badenoch, despite attracting better reviews of late, remains a curiously constipated figure, her policy positions derivative and sloganistic and with no contrition for the Tory disasters in office or insight as to how a party in government just two years ago, has collapsed so comprehensively into political irrelevance. Without a clear change of direction, away from the overcrowded cul-de-sac of the political right and a concerted effort to win back the votes lost to the Liberal Democrats in the south of England, the current Tory malaise may well prove to be terminal.
As for the Liberal Democrats, they remain a curiosity. Their vote was squeezed out of existence in Makerfield and although the party made gains in the local elections, it is hard to see what Ed Davey’s outfit is now actually for. The Lib Dems could remain important in opposing Reform advances into the former Tory heartlands and they could even end up back in government in coalition with Burnham’s Labour after the next election, but it is a peculiarly passive role, responding to the actions of others rather than the party defining its own distinct identity. With their traditional function as the recipient of the protest vote usurped by Reform and the Greens it is equally possible the Liberal Democrats’ seat total could collapse again to 2019 levels as the party struggles to negotiate the new political terrain.
What is beyond doubt is that the Burnham Factor will define the fate of all the British political parties, but particularly in England where his governing impact will be most readily felt. Burnham may be able to withstand the international and domestic tides that swept away his predecessors with dizzying speed; he may be able to break with a dispiriting economic consensus that is palpably failing to improve the lives of the U.K.’s citizens, or he may crash and burn and with his fall bring down the last hopes of a return to social democracy to this country, perhaps forever.
But there is an unfamiliar sensation being felt by the British public this summer that is not confined to the left of politics - a sense that things could be different, that the future does not have to be dark and bleak but that perhaps instead, we can dare hope for something better.
romaincrisis
2087
dailybridgerton
ellievsbear
discoholicmusic
amandla
turnnoffyourmind
snowghoul
