Consumer and Automobile: Even Better the Second Time Around
Autonomous vehicles will bring about a social revolution as great as the introduction of the automobile itself.
According to consultancy McKinsey, researchers at MIT have calculated that autonomous vehicles combined with ride sharing could achieve today's volume of passenger trips while using 80 percent fewer cars. That’s an astonishing figure. In time, this change would render obsolete entire categories of business while simultaneously creating new ones.
After paying for housing, the automobile is the largest consumer purchase. There are also costs for insurance, maintenance and, for some, parking. Consequently the opportunity to access an on-demand service - one that is remarkably affordable because it is autonomous and possibly subscription-based - means that many households will save tens of thousands of dollars over the cost of traditional car ownership. This would put enormous sums back into the economy as people choose to invest or spend the difference.
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Like many people, I enjoy cars. And I believe there will always be a place for driving, even after autonomous vehicles become the norm (probably many years from now). While traditional driving on public roads may become restricted, there will be, just like today, the option to drive on a dedicated performance track or to explore off-road.
It seems to me that the most exciting questions are: How will our lives change? And what will we create from the surplus of roads and parking lots?
The most disadvantaged of society will take a great leap forward. Jobs in suburbs or on the other side of town, previously inaccessible via mass transit, will now be on the list of consideration. Instead of languishing at bus stops, people will travel door-to-door. Of course, if ride-sharing is involved, there will be stops in between. The total experience, however, will be faster and of greater value than any urban bus service today.
Sprawling cities of the sunbelt - Houston, Texas for example - will be utterly transformed as employees, shoppers, nighttime revelers, and local travelers of all sorts move about with unprecedented safety and efficiency.
Ride sharing also introduces the prospect of spending time with people you don’t know: something that’s old hat on transit systems of the world’s legacy cities, but which for car cultures is a bit of a novelty. I like that.
And then there’s the land. Some of the infrastructure currently dedicated to traditional driving will not be needed. With the right planning, some of this might be transformed into urban green spaces or walkable boulevards that make a priority of sidewalk culture. Imagine generously-proportioned spaces where family, friends, and neighbors can meet and spend time together. You want to shop local? This is a rich and life-affirming way to do it.
At first glance some of this might sound a bit Utopian. Then again, it seemed a miracle of sorts when mass-produced cars transformed the fortunes of American families more than a century ago. I reckon the second coming of the automobile - the autonomous automobile - will do much the same. And even better and more responsibly so.
Joe Senft is in Houston, Texas. He is a marketer and business development specialist with experience in both consumer and business-to-business brands.
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