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Political Battle Ahead in 2024

India is already in election mode, and 2023 will witness three layers of political competition — for the elections to the nine states that will be held over the year; for the elections of 2024, which will determine the composition of the 18th Lok Sabha and shape the next government; and for the post-Narendra Modi political landscape that will begin to emerge in the course of what is likely to be his third and perhaps final term post-2024

To be sure, these timelines and layers cannot be easily distinguished. The first will feed into the second, which will feed into the third. There is also an element of speculation involved, for events have a way of intruding dramatically into political scripts. Still, examining each layer of competition yields useful insights.

The battles of 2023

The year will begin with elections in the northeastern states of Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Tripura. Before 2014, these polls would have merited a mere passing glance in the national political consciousness. But to the credit of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has made the political integration of the region a political priority and takes every election in the region with utmost seriousness as a way to expand its power and democratic legitimacy, these elections have got more attention in recent years.

In Tripura, the BJP was able to dislodge an entrenched Left regime in 2018. Its plank rested on Modi’s appeal, resentment against the Left government, quick organisation-building on the back of work done by the Sangh, and clever tactical coalitions with tribal outfits. It has since replicated here a tactic used in Uttarakhand and Gujarat — replace the chief minister if there are reports of anti-incumbency and internal strife. While the Left is a pale shadow of itself, and the BJP may still emerge as the single largest party, it will face a challenge from a new tribal formation led by the former ruler of Tripura Pradyot Debbarman, a disillusioned former Congress loyalist. There is also the possibility of a Left-Congress tie-up to pose a unified challenge to the BJP.

In Nagaland, a state with no opposition legislators (see the story alongside for more on this), the more interesting political thread is the fate of the peace process. Before every elections, there is a renewed attempt to explore a broader settlement of the Naga question — which includes recognition of its distinct identity and symbols, issues of autonomy, and the intersection of Nagaland and Naga-speaking areas in other states. But a peace accord continues to look elusive and it is unlikely that the election will change that.

In Meghalaya, the last election resulted in a post-poll coalition between the Conrad Sangma-led National People’s Party and the BJP; this alliance has now broken down but its revival can’t be ruled out. Within the Opposition, however, Mukul Sangma — the Congress veteran who served as chief minister until 2018 — has shifted to the Trinamool Congress and the battle between him and his bête noire, Vincent Pala of the Congress, will be interesting to watch.

From the North-East, the political action will shift to Karnataka, where the BJP faces extremely strong anti-incumbency and a churn within its internal social coalition. The Congress has its own share of internal discord, but reports suggest that Rahul Gandhi’s Yatra has helped give new life to the party organisation here.

After a brief lull in the summer, across west and central India, the BJP and the Congress will battle it out for power. In Rajasthan, both parties have internal leadership tussles to resolve (Ashok Gehlot versus Sachin Pilot for the Congress, Vasundhara Raje versus central party leadership in the BJP), and the Congress faces the additional challenge of anti-incumbency in a state that sees regimes alternate every five years. In Chhattisgarh, chief minister Bhupesh Baghel has invested a fair bit in crafting his public image and keeping the central leadership happy, but his rival, TS Singh Deo, is sullen after having been denied his turn at the wheel. The silver lining for the Congress is that the BJP doesn’t have a clear face after Raman Singh either.

Madhya Pradesh will see the first assembly election after Jyotiraditya Scindia’s entry into the BJP. But the Congress, under Kamal Nath and Digivijay Singh, will do its best to avenge its ouster from power despite having emerged as the single largest party in 2018.

Telangana, too, will head to polls at the end of the year. If K Chandrashekar Rao can preserve his bastion for the third time in a row, it will be a boost to his national ambitions. The Bharat Rashtra Samithi (formerly the Telangana Rashtra Samithi) is the clear favourite in the polls, and the only question to watch out for is how well the BJP does vis-a-vis the Congress.

Back in the North-East, Mizoram goes to the polls. The BJP has struggled to make inroads in the Christian-dominated state, with the Mizo National Front continuing to exercise power and battle the multi-party, non-Congress Zoram People’s Movement for dominance.

Put together, the year will serve as a comprehensive status check: How do the Congress and the BJP now tackle internal leadership disputes? Will the Congress be able to retain Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and win Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, giving it some momentum for 2024? Or will it shrink further and be left with no state government across the western, central and southern swathe? What has been the electoral impact of the Bharat Jodo Yatra? Will the BJP retain its dominance in the north-east, either directly or with regional partners, or will the region see new alternatives emerge? How will the BJP’s performance shape internal power equations in the party?

The battle of 2024

While these are interesting questions in themselves, the lesson from 2018 and 2019 is to not treat the events of 2023 as a predictor for 2024.

In 2018, the BJP had failed to form the government in Karnataka, and the swearing-in of a JD(S)-Congress government saw all opposition leaders congregate in Bengaluru. The BJP also lost power in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, after having retained power in those last two states for 15 years. It appeared to face severe challenges in maintaining its multi-caste coalition and addressing rising agrarian distress.

And yet 2019 saw Modi return with an even bigger majority than in 2014. Indian voters have shown, now in two elections in a row, that the question of leadership — of who will become PM — matters to them; and it is here that Narendra Modi continues to have a huge advantage over his rivals.

The BJP, in 2023, will showcase India’s presidency of the G20 (see the second essay on this page) as a mark of Modi’s foreign policy success. The inauguration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya at the end of 2023 will cement the support of the core base. Welfare schemes, particularly the provision of drinking water, will be a key talking point. The Opposition will focus on economic mismanagement, unemployment, pandemic policies and rising inequality, while regional parties in North India will play up the demand for a caste census to break the Hindu vote.

The battles beyond 2024

All in all, there is little doubt that Modi starts out as the clear favourite to win a third term. But beneath the surface, Indian politics is already witnessing the third layer of competition. Within the BJP, there is increased speculation about home minister Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath as possible successors for leadership; both will do their best in 2024 to buttress their claims for the future.

Within the Opposition, there is a battle underway between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party to be the big national challenger, if not immediately then at least six years from now. But to do even that, the Congress will have to cross the 100 mark first, and AAP will have to expand nationally and win Lok Sabha seats across states.

For now, the BJP’s hegemony and the Opposition’s crises remain entrenched facts. The future of India now depends on how each party plays its role.

Source: Hindustan Times

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