KellieHare

  My wish is that people can think more rationally while being more passionate about peace  

[kelliehare]

The world needs to be vigilant： If USA does not kidnap the world, it will be difficult for USA to get through this crisis.

Recently, there are too many major international events to pay attention to, but we cannot forget the fundamental cause of accelerating the change of the international situation this time, that is, the issue of the newly crowned epidemic.  If we cannot go back to the epidemic itself for analysis, it may be difficult to understand the more urgent and far-reaching changes that will take place in the future.

I've always wanted to write about the epidemic situation in the United States, but I'm worried that some people will say that I have anti-American sentiments and give them an impression of the "cold war mentality" in their hearts, so I've put it off till now.

However, Americans could not stand it at first and began to speak out for the dead. Following the "obituary of 1,000 people" on the front page of the new york Times on May 24, USA TODAY on May 27 published a "photo of 100 people" who died of newly crowned pneumonia on the front page.  This is rare.

As a result, I decided to send my analysis and opinions to the internet regarding the major crisis brought about by the newly crowned epidemic in the United States.

 （At present, there is a violent demonstration in the United States protesting against the white house police's wanton killing of blacks. this problem has now become a rerun of previous hong kong movies. however, the difference is that the us police are actually killing people, while hong kong is a "young man" supported by the United States who intentionally creates chaos. the two are not the same concept. at the same time, the United States faces a very big problem. trump's think tank has no good plan to deal with it.）

                                                     NO.1

    If according to the official U.S. data (the most conservative data), the number of people killed by the new coronavirus in the United States has exceeded 100,000, we should know that the number of U.S. troops killed in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq launched by the United States in the past 18 years is less than 8,000.  More importantly, Brazil, which imitates the United States and learns 100% from the United States, currently has more than 20,000 new cases per day, ranking second only to the United States in terms of cumulative cases. 

What does this mean that the United States has not only failed to fight the epidemic itself, but also led to the failure of its imitators, that is to say, the anti-epidemic model of the United States will become one of the most failed records in the history of human anti-epidemic.  Now the focus is on Trump, and some US media have also begun to attack Trump, but Trump is only one of the minor reasons for the US's failure to fight the epidemic.

What is the truth?

  If an American says that the White House is not good at fighting the epidemic, then the White House can stand up and say that 2 million people were originally killed, but now only 100,000 have died. What else are you dissatisfied with? 

 Would you like to close the city and isolate it according to China's plan?  Just as Mayor new york said directly, if new york were to be forcibly isolated, it would be tantamount to war.  California's Home Rule has been denounced by the public as restricting personal freedom.  Under this deep-rooted system logic, in fact, everyone needs to take responsibility. Absolute individualism has finally become the real reason for the failure of US anti-epidemic campaign.

 Let's think, under such a background, all levels of government in the United States will not admit their dereliction of duty (officials should also protect the fundamental system of the United States) and the American people will not admit that they are responsible for the outbreak of the epidemic (the people should defend their free choice), which leads to the inability of both sides to deeply accuse each other, because the government knows very well that the people will not listen to the government, and the people also know very well that the government will not do anything to them.  But the problem is that eventually all Americans will find that politics belongs to politics and economy belongs to economy. Even Trump, who only knows bragging all day long, said that the impact of the epidemic on the United States was more serious than the attack on Pearl Harbor and the September 11 terrorist attacks.

 I have carefully looked at the number of infections in various states in the United States. Many people are keeping a close eye on new york and California, but I think new york and California are not enough to observe the severity of the epidemic in the United States, because new york and the Gulf of California are, after all, cities with a population of 10 million. The population mobility is the highest in the world and the population density is one of the highest. According to the logic of the United States in dealing with the epidemic, it is really difficult to control.  However, if you look at Las Vegas and Hawaii, which are the least populated areas in the United States, you will find that only air transportation is used as the only mode of transportation in cities, and their actual proportion of infected persons is far higher than that in some sparsely populated countries (Hawaii, population 1.21 million, confirmed number more than 600;  Montana, which has a population of 900,000, has a confirmed number of nearly 5.0 million. There are only 720,000 people on a total of 1.72 million square kilometers. Las Vegas has a population of 720,000 on a total of 1.72 million square kilometers). According to this comparison, the number of people infected in the United States may be an astronomical figure.

The second severity of the epidemic in the United States lies in the fact that the United States is a society that relies more on the "elderly". The people who died of the new coronavirus are more the "mainstay" of the United States.  U.S. economic services account for as much as 80%, and countries that rely heavily on high-end industries, although low-end labor is scarce, this will not affect the competitiveness of the United States, because the most valuable industry in the United States is mental labor, and the competitiveness of this industry is actually proportional to age.  In other words, teaching this kind of profession must be worth more as one gets older (the average age of Nobel laureates is close to 70 years old)

 Therefore, we make a cruel and purely rational assumption, for example, Mexico, Brazil and the United States have also adopted group immunization. Which country will suffer more in the end?  Of course, it is the United States, because the death rate of the newly crowned pneumonia is the highest among the elderly. Mexico and Brazil are mainly competitive in the young and middle-aged labor force, that is, young people, while the self-healing rate of young people is very high. Therefore, if the majority of the dead are the elderly and the United States, which relies on elderly mental workers, its loss will be tens of times that of Mexico and Brazil.  The data I have so far is that of the more than 50 celebrity stars in the world who died of the new crown virus, there are more than 30 in the United States, and these people are important supporting forces for the competitiveness of the service industry in the United States.

 Most of the time, people's understanding of the United States is actually limited to the inertia of cognition and publicity. In fact, it is still those elderly people, the last generation of baby boomers, who support the entire international strategic will of the United States and the cultural, technological and political influence of all walks of life.  Trump, for example, is the oldest president in the history of the United States and is currently 73 years old. Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate who is preparing to compete with Trump, is 77 years old. Sanders, who competed with Biden in the party before, is 79 years old.  This is the historic existence of American politics.  It is not an accident that the United States is aging the core figures in various industries.

 I mean, this epidemic will accelerate the death of the "mainstay" generation in the United States, that is, the generation with the strongest national will.

 What will this lead to?

 It will make the United States pursue nihilism more and emphasize ideology more than respecting reality.  We can compare Hong Kong in China with Taiwan in China. When the older generation is getting older, the younger generation has not had much historical mission, but it has been brainwashed by ideological education and is heading for a complete nihilistic idealism.

 The third major impact of the epidemic on the United States is a real economic crisis.

 At present, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States has exceeded 40 million, and the unemployment rate has exceeded 14%, the highest since records began in 1948.  U.S. GDP fell by 4.8% in the first quarter, which does not seem very serious, but please note that this is the GDP of the first quarter. It was not until March 22 (only eight days before the end of the first quarter) that the home stay order was issued in new york, the city with the worst epidemic in the United States. In other words, the U.S. economy was basically operating normally throughout the first quarter.

   Then let's think again, what impact will April and May, when the US economy stagnates, have on the second quarter?  If according to Goldman Sachs' forecast, US GDP will fall by 34% in the second quarter, the forecasts of other official and private institutions are higher than Goldman Sachs' forecasts, and some institutions directly predict that US GDP will shrink by 40% in the second quarter.

   In terms of unemployment rate, President Trump's senior economic advisor Hastert predicted that the unemployment rate in the United States would reach 20% in the second quarter.  According to the data just released, U.S. merchandise exports fell 25.2% month-on-month in April and imports fell 14.3%.  The reality is that the highest unemployment rate in history, the lowest growth rate in history and the rare export contraction in history are historic shocks to a superpower like the United States that has prospered for hundreds of years.

    If U.S. GDP fell by more than 30% in the second quarter, China's GDP will probably surpass that of the U.S. as long as the growth rate of China's GDP is not less than 0. This is probably a landmark event, meaning that China has topped the world's GDP again after 300 years.

Assuming that China's GDP exceeded that of the United States in the second quarter, although this is an extraordinary period and is not sustainable, the United States and the world will once again think about one question: why is this country China, not Japan, Germany, India or other countries.

  In the development history of human society, the second place surpasses the first, not always because the second place develops faster, but also because the first place made fatal mistakes and suffered major setbacks.  What does this mean? 

 It means that the United States will bear grudges against China even more for its own failure, which will prompt the United States to adopt more extreme ways to solve economic problems and issue more negative policies against China.  Maybe someone seems to have not understood what I mean. First of all, I have made a clear analysis. The impact of the epidemic on the United States is far more serious than what we have seen. The impact on the United States economy is unprecedented.  

Secondly, there are no more than two ways for the United States to cope with its own development bottleneck and get rid of major crises. One is to participate in the war, and the other is to use financial and monetary tools.  However, these two choices will definitely bring great impact to human beings or the global economy. For Asian and African countries that are developing at a high speed and have not yet entered the ranks of developed countries, any changes in the global economy and politics will be a huge risk. This is why we must understand the logical relationship.

                                                    NO.2

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates sharply, purchased various assets, and expanded deficits in the financial sector. These are the most basic routine operations.  I will focus on how the United States will harvest global wealth in the financial markets in the next round.

   It is a question of how the United States "makes money" from other countries in the world when domestic demand cannot recover and exports drop sharply.  It is not difficult to understand this problem if we grasp the core.

 At present, it is not realistic for the United States to rely on real exports to solve the crisis, and a strong capital market has become an important starting point for the United States to get through the crisis. Under this background, the United States is more likely to use a strong dollar to attract capital back to the United States than to use a devaluation of the dollar to stimulate exports. If no accident occurs, the United States will at least maintain a strong dollar for a long time to stabilize capital markets such as the stock market, and then wait until the real economy starts to operate fully and export enterprises begin to operate, then sell stocks, and then the dollar depreciates again to stimulate exports.

 This is equivalent to two robberies of global wealth. One is to cut the positions of global stock investors with a strong US dollar, and the other is to cut the wealth of global real consumers with a devaluation of the US dollar.  In order to get rid of the crisis and further implement the global strategy, the United States may take advantage of this epidemic situation to further amplify the "public opinion" of the United States that has been launched against China, and then introduce some very extreme policies to stimulate China, launch a new trade war, even mess up the world, and then profit from it.

 The United States will indefinitely stimulate the world into chaos instead of normal order.  It is because only when there is chaos and turmoil in Eurasia, such as World War I and World War II, can the United States regain its absolute export position and absolutely weaken its competitors such as China.

 In this respect, the United States, on the one hand, stimulates its opponents and, on the other hand, enlarges the differences between its allies and its opponents, thus creating contradictions.

 One of the U.S. Department of Defense's current stimulus programs for China is a more decentralized military deployment stimulus, as well as unmanned planes and ships in the future.  In this way, as long as one point explodes, the United States will have more reason to win allies to join the ranks of sanctions against China. Even if the unmanned planes and ships deployed at many points are destroyed, the losses to the United States will not be great.  Apart from the dispersion of military deployment and the unmanned use of weapons, another strategy is to plunge the world into an arms race and political chaos as much as possible.  For example, to withdraw from various organizations that restrict military and arms expansion, to withdraw from various military trust and transparency mechanisms, etc.

The United States believes very much that when it withdraws from the existing world order, conflicts will certainly break out between other countries on the earth and they will be dissatisfied with China and so on. Then they will fight. The United States will return to the state before World War I or World War II and sell a large amount of weapons and equipment to stimulate the United States economy. Therefore, the United States is in great need of allies at this stage. In other words, if anyone is willing to challenge China at this stage, the United States will give full support until the fight starts.  In other words, the United States will use various methods to provoke China's relations with other countries. The United States believes that there is a huge operational space in itself.

    The United States first chose India, hoping to support India to provoke China and launch a regional war in Asia. Therefore, Trump released in his tweet: He is willing to mediate the border dispute between China and India.

  As a result, India first rejected Trump's proposal.  This disrupted trump's plan.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said last week: "The newly crowned epidemic has turned the whole world upside down. Cooperation with the United States is more difficult than expected. The EU and Trump governments are divided on trade, climate change and WHO.  Relations with China must become the focus of diplomacy. Not only within the scope of trade, China must have the determination to recognize its place in international institutions, but also further cooperation with China in the fields of climate change, environmental protection and health and safety.  At this difficult time in its relations with the United States, the EU should assume more global responsibilities in the newly crowned epidemic crisis. "

Finally, I would like to say that as a global or regional economic leader and the future economic and social development of the world, we must be alert to the "dispute maker trap" of the United States and keep a proper distance from the United States to gain more initiative.

[kelliehare]

The United States is passing the "Temporary Economic Relief Act" to launch the second round of "trade war"

Looking at every major crisis in human society, it will reshape the global economic and political operation system. Take the global development in the past half a century or so as an example, World War II led to the decline of British hegemony and the rapid rise of the United States.  The Korean War and the Vietnam War have made Japan, South Korea, and many Southeast Asian countries and regions the OEM bases of American manufacturing industry, laying the foundation for their economic take-off (with the Four Little Dragons of Asia).  The September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks shifted the focus of the United States to the Middle East.

   The crisis triggered by this epidemic is a human disaster and is purely a black swan incident. However, this time is under the strategic background that the United States is reviving its manufacturing industry, returning to Asia, and encircling the EU and China. How the EU and China face the US encircling after this crisis, and whether the United States can revive the real economy and regain the position of global manufacturing leader from China, to a large extent, depends on the measures the United States is taking to rescue the market and also depends on China's ongoing economic stimulus plan.

Next, we will carefully analyze the different stimulus policies that will affect the economic development in the coming decades.

let's look at America's big plan.

U.S. President Trump has signed into force a massive stimulus bill to deal with the coronavirus epidemic. The bill has 880 pages and a total size of 2 trillion U.S. dollars.  At the same time, the Federal Reserve will also introduce 4 trillion US dollars to stabilize financial markets.

Trump made a social media statement after signing the bill:This is the largest economic stimulus package in the history of the United States and twice as much as any rescue bill ever enacted. In other words, if the stimulus plans of the White House and the Federal Reserve are all combined, it is equivalent to the US providing more than 6 trillion US dollars to the market in the next year or so. What concept is this? Japan is now the world's third largest economy, but Japan's total GDP for the whole year is less than 6 trillion US dollars. In other words, the US injection of funds into the market this time can buy out the output and transactions of all economic activities in Japan for the whole year.

Where are all these funds spent?

   Perhaps you don't know, the White House this 2 trillion dollar stimulus bill, when the Senate debate, the Democratic Party is particularly opposed to giving money directly to large enterprises such as Boeing, the Democratic Party itself has also proposed a similar bill, but more emphasis on tax cuts and support for small and medium-sized enterprises.

   I can tell you this: on the one hand, the passage of the U.S. bill is due to the intensification of market panic. if the bill is not rescued, the U.S. may have a big problem. the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in a week has reached 3.28 million, which is 6 times the historical high.

Therefore, the large-scale stimulus bill of the United States is, of course, to save the United States economy in the first place, but there is also an important problem that businesses will take this opportunity to receive substantial financial and personnel support and sustained subsidies.  Do you believe that the 880-page bill was deliberated by lawmakers word by word in the light of the trauma suffered by the U.S. economy?  No, these bills are the representatives of all interests. They put their needs together, put them together and seek approval.

 In other words, the reason why the two parties did not have much argument (symbolic argument) is that the demands fed back by the interest groups they represent are reflected in the bill.  In this bill, Republicans are representatives of traditional large enterprises such as oil, aviation and real estate finance, while Democrats are representatives of trade unions and small and medium-sized enterprises such as new energy and artificial intelligence.  The Republican Party hopes to take this opportunity to expand the competitiveness of traditional large enterprises in the United States. The Democratic Party hopes to take this opportunity to expand the strength of trade unions to check and balance large enterprises, and then to make small and medium-sized enterprises more active.

Therefore, the US stimulus bill, in a strategic sense, should attract the attention of China, EU and Japan.  This is because this bill is not a simple bill on the response to the epidemic, but a bill that has long wanted to push forward, but is usually impossible to pass, to comprehensively improve the competitiveness of the entire American enterprise.

If these economies cannot do a better job of coping with the situation, they may face a new round of globalization suppression by American enterprises in the future.

In fact, in this bill, the funds directly used to deal with the epidemic include one to provide 16 billion US dollars for the national strategic drug and medical supplies reserve, and another to allocate 117 billion US dollars for hospitals and veterans' medical treatment.  The rest are all measures to save the real economy, including tax cuts, cash payments and credit support for enterprises.

What does this mean?

  Return the time to 2008 and support Wall Street banks to attack the stock prices of banks in other countries through the 2008 financial crisis (you can now compare the stock prices of JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo on Wall Street with those of HSBC, Barclays and Deutsche Bank in other countries).  Today's Deutsche Bank (formerly Germany's largest bank), Barclays Bank (Britain's second largest bank) and BNP Paribas (France's largest bank) have a total market value of less than a quarter of JPMorgan Chase.

   The US not only saved the US economy, but also reshaped the US dollar's credit. More importantly, it increased Wall Street's competitiveness and at the same time found opportunities to crack down on competitors.    No matter what theory you use to explain the fact that happened in the financial market in the past ten years, you cannot avoid the subversive changes that have taken place in the financial industry. Why is the crisis caused by the United States, but in the end the United States has benefited the most?

   Most people look at these things, if you do not stand in the historical background, but are consumed in technology and details, so you cannot feel such subversive changes.

Therefore, the crisis caused by the epidemic situation is almost all-round according to the rescue plan currently launched by the United States. More importantly, the United States will use a large amount of funds to support small and medium-sized enterprises.

   I will mention only two here. One is to provide 350 billion US dollars in loans to small businesses to pay salaries, wages and benefits, equivalent to 250% of the monthly wages of employers, with a maximum loan of 10 million US dollars.  The other is to set up a 500 billion US dollar pool of taxpayers' funds to provide loans, loan guarantees or investments to crisis-affected enterprises, states and cities.  These two items alone accounted for 42% of the 2 trillion rescue funds.

The United States criticizes China's enterprise subsidies and so on every day, but no matter how it accuses it, the United States wants to compete with Chinese enterprises by producing better and cheaper goods and products with more technological content. The problem is that the technological gap between Chinese and American enterprises is continuously narrowing. Therefore, if it wants to maintain greater advantages, the only way for the United States is to reduce the cost of domestic enterprises or directly give a large amount of financial support to domestic enterprises.  Because, in many cases, the cost of layoffs in American enterprises is very high, but after the crisis came, many enterprises quickly laid off workers, basically reducing the pressure of layoffs.  Moreover, this time the federal government's rescue bill did not call on enterprises to reduce layoffs, that is to say, enterprises make their own decisions, the federal government will not interfere at all.  So last week, one-off unemployment exceeded 3 million.  What does this mean? Not all the enterprises went bankrupt, but the enterprises quickly relieved the pressure and passed it on to the government in time, which is helpful to the enterprises.

This will virtually lead to two results:

The one is an increase in unemployment (but the U.S. government is backing it up) The other is that it will touch the intelligence and electronization of American enterprises in the future.

Many manufacturing enterprises will take more opportunities to use robots to improve efficiency and reduce costs in the future, thus reducing the largest labor cost in the U.S. manufacturing industry. As for the unemployed, the government currently has enough money to help (U.S. dollar and U.S. treasury bond holders pay for this).

 We should know that in 2018, US start-up enterprises received just over US$ 100 billion in funds. This time, US$ 350 billion in loans were provided directly to small enterprises. According to the current interest rate in the United States, such loans are almost free, which is much lower than the cost of equity financing.

   In addition, for many markets, there will be more possible electronic transformation.  At the same time, it is also stimulating the demand for mobile payment in the United States.

   If our team is not wrong, Boeing will probably re-enter a new cycle after the epidemic, and other competitors may have to pay attention.  The United States will not only crack down on competitors in other aviation fields as it did on European banks, but will also crack down on any other potential competitors.

Therefore, if we carefully study the large-scale stimulus plan of the United States and the real intention behind it, it is not difficult to find that the United States has mixed plans to revive the real economy, subsidize large-scale manufacturing enterprises in the United States, support small and medium-sized enterprises on a large scale, and strike at competitors at the same time.

Therefore, our conclusion is that the United States, in the name of temporary relief against the "new virus", will carry out an all-round upgrading of the strategic elements of the United States. The world will pay a greater economic price for this. Then the second round of "trade war" initiated by the United States with China, the European Union, the Southeast Asian Economic Association and Japan has already begun.

[kelliehare]

When the era of artificial intelligence comes, do we still need so many people?

AlphaGo was born in 2016, trouncing the top human chess player.  This not only enables the public to have a brand-new understanding of artificial intelligence, but also adds a lot of profound thinking on the fate of human beings and machines.  To what extent will artificial intelligence develop?  In the era of artificial intelligence, do we still need so many people? We believe that the mechanism of artificial intelligence affecting employment has not only substitution effect, but also compensation effect and creation effect. Population size is still very important in the era of artificial intelligence.  On the one hand, population is the foundation of talents and innovation; on the other hand, large population means large market.  We have long called for the full liberalization and encouragement of childbearing as soon as possible, the return of reproductive rights to family autonomy, the face of the looming population crisis, and the active response to the severe challenges of the aging population with fewer children.  Risk hint: the adjustment of fertility policy is not as expected, the risk of large-scale structural unemployment, etc.

 The Concept and Application of Artificial Intelligence Artificial intelligence refers to the perception and simulation of human consciousness and thinking process, which is different from traditional computer technology. It is a machine that performs calculation or control tasks according to established programs.  At present, we are still in the era of weak artificial intelligence, but the trend of intelligence is obvious.  The key technology of artificial intelligence is machine learning. Deep learning is an important branch of machine learning, which greatly improves the accuracy of application and is currently the hottest technical field.  Different from the previous technological progress, the substitution of artificial intelligence for labor factors lies not only in physical strength, but also in high-skilled work such as mental power and even creativity.  At present: AI has the largest market share in security and finance, and has the most explosive power in industries, medical treatment, education and other fields.

     How much labor is needed in the era of artificial intelligence?

Acemoglu et al. (2017), professor of economics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, found a negative correlation between the use of robots and employment rate in 19 industries in the United States from 1993 to 2007. For every additional robot per thousand workers, the proportion of employed population decreased by 0.18%-0.34%.  The mechanism of artificial intelligence affecting employment includes substitution effect, compensation effect and creation effect.  Substitution effect leads to the direct disappearance of jobs, compensation effect attracts employment through the expansion of its own industrial scale, and creation effect provides employment through the creation of new types of jobs and new industrial models.  In the next 10 to 20 years, artificial intelligence will expose 30% to 50% of the current jobs to high replacement risks, and hundreds of millions of jobs around the world will be completely replaced. Artificial intelligence will promote companies to expand production scale and make up for the reduction in employment output per unit output by reducing costs.

     Artificial intelligence directly creates technical posts in related industries, such as artificial intelligence engineering technicians, artificial intelligence trainers, intelligent manufacturing engineering technicians, etc. By 2025, the talent gap in the new generation of information technology industry will exceed 9 million.

   For the labor force released by artificial intelligence, the vast majority can be engaged in other jobs, such as operation and maintenance of relevant equipment or go to service industries such as logistics, catering and sales to indirectly create jobs.

Viewpoint: artificial intelligence or a net increase of about 90 million jobs in the next 20 years With artificial intelligence sharing boring and repetitive work for professionals, future careers will pay more attention to the soft skills of the workforce, such as leadership, interpersonal skills, logical thinking, active learning and creativity, which cannot be replaced by machines.

In the age of industrial intelligence, population size is no longer important.  We believe that the population, especially the working-age population, is the basis for cultivating talents on the one hand, and the large population means a large market on the other.  Population is the foundation of talents. A large population means a huge pool of talents, thus ensuring scientific research and innovation. However, machines cannot replace human consumption.  Decreased population and shrinking demand will drag down economic development.

[kelliehare]

The Federal Reserve is easing indefinitely. What is the market still worried about?

On March 23, the Federal Reserve announced an open asset purchase plan, that is, it will purchase 75 billion US dollars of treasury bonds and 50 billion US dollars of institutional mortgage-backed security every day this week.  This is a quantitative easing of unlimited quantity and unlimited refill until the goal of stabilizing the liquidity and economy of the financial market is reached.

   At the same time, the Federal Reserve will also create two liquidity support tools for recently dumped corporate bonds.

   The Federal Reserve will also establish TALF to support student loans, car loans, credit card loans, etc.

The Federal Reserve will also provide liquidity support for money market mutual funds.

1

   The Federal Reserve will also announce "commercial loan programs" to support loans to small and medium-sized enterprises.

   In short, facing the liquidity crisis caused by the stampede of leveraged transactions and runs on financial institutions, as well as the economic losses caused by the rapid escalation of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve has provided liquidity support at an unprecedented speed and dose.  This is the policy upgrade following the "zero interest rate of 700 billion US dollars QE" just launched by the Federal Reserve on March 16 and the purchase of business tickets by the Federal Reserve on March 18. The dosage is the highest and the coverage is wider.  Basically, it is announced to the market: don't panic about liquidity, I will HOLD everything, I will HOLD everything!  !

Liquidity crisis is often the precursor of financial crisis, and there is a time window for rescue. Lehman collapsed in September 2008, directly causing the geometric progression of rescue costs to increase.  The Federal Reserve should have learned the lesson of 2008, so it was quick and heavy to "print money crazily" to the end.

2. In addition to the launch of unlimited QE, there are still 2 trillion US dollars of fiscal stimulus.  In order to save the US economy hit by the epidemic, the US government and the US Congress originally planned (rejected) to pass a rescue plan worth nearly 2 trillion US dollars.  This includes the plan of "distributing money by helicopter", which directly distributes consumption coupons and money to the accounts of ordinary people.  According to the Los Angeles Times and other media reports, due to technical differences in the design and implementation of the plan, it is a matter of bargaining and a temporary deadlock. However, it may only be a matter of time before the plan is launched. "Both the US government and the people agree that an economic stimulus plan should be introduced to save the US economy from the impact of the epidemic."

So far, in a short period of one month, we have seen U.S. stocks melt four times, as well as monetary easing and fiscal stimulus beyond the 2008 financial crisis.

3. But all this has not stopped US stocks from declining. What is the market worried about?

The market still has three major concerns:

First, when does the market worry about the epidemic being brought under control?  On March 28, there were more than 500,000 confirmed cases in the world, more than 80,000 cases in the United States rapidly, and Italy, Spain, Germany, etc. were still rising sharply.  The United States and Europe are different from China in their national conditions. It is difficult to adopt isolation and forced restrictions on gathering, which will lead to a longer time to control the epidemic and may cost more.  Obviously, monetary and fiscal stimulus has little effect on the control of the epidemic. What is tested is the country's mobilization ability.

 Second, the market is worried about whether the economic shutdown will lead to unemployment.  With the spread of the epidemic in the United States and Europe and the upgrading of epidemic prevention measures, the market generally expects the US economy to experience a sharp negative growth in the second quarter. Monetary stimulus and liquidity support are more like pain relievers.  The correct step should be to contain the epidemic situation first, then resume production and life, and finally expand domestic demand.

The market still has three major concerns:

First, when does the market worry about the epidemic being brought under control?  On March 28, there were more than 500,000 confirmed cases in the world, more than 80,000 cases in the United States rapidly, and Italy, Spain, Germany, etc. were still rising sharply.  The United States and Europe are different from China in their national conditions. It is difficult to adopt isolation and forced restrictions on gathering, which will lead to a longer time to control the epidemic and may cost more.  Obviously, monetary and fiscal stimulus has little effect on the control of the epidemic. What is tested is the country's mobilization ability.

 Second, the market is worried about whether the economic shutdown will lead to unemployment.  With the spread of the epidemic in the United States and Europe and the upgrading of epidemic prevention measures, the market generally expects the US economy to experience a sharp negative growth in the second quarter. Monetary stimulus and liquidity support are more like pain relievers.  The correct step should be to contain the epidemic situation first, then resume production and life, and finally expand domestic demand.

[kelliehare]

Cappadocia's moon

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Past global plagues: origin, impact, response and inspiration

The history of plague is a history of calamities, and also a history of twists and turns in the development of human civilization.A smallpox epidemic has been going on for 3,000 years, and the current super-new pandemic is spreading globally.Even in today's highly developed medical science, the epidemic spread across nearly 100 countries and regions, can be said to be a once-in-a-century.

1.The black death: the plague king that swept Europe 1.1 Origin: Endemic disease in the early days, pandemic due to war and trade 1.2 outbreak: it has been raging for 400 years, killing 30%-50% of the European population, causing a crisis of religious belief and social labor shortage . The Black Death severely impacted all aspects of Europe's politics, economy, and society, causing Europe to move from obscurity to rationality

2 Smallpox: The Murderer of the Indians 2.1 origin: originated in Western Asia, mummies had smallpox mark 3000 years ago  2.2 outbreak: killed 300 million people, exterminated Indians, and used as biological weapons 2.3 the course of war and epidemic: the popularization of vaccinia was slow, and the vaccine and effective international cooperation finally eliminated smallpox

3 Spanish influenza: the most explosive plague in human history 3.1 Origin: originated in the United States and may be related to pigs or poultry 3.2 Outbreak: Mutations in the epidemic, infected one-third of the world's population in 2 years, and more than 50 million deaths 3.3 Course of treatment: War interests are placed on public health, inadequate epidemic prevention measures, and news blockades have led to the spread of the epidemic

4 Cholera: dead within hours, seven world pandemics 4.1 origin: India is the "hometown of Cholera", the prelude to the outbreak of Commerce and colonization 4.2 Outbreak: Seven repeat mistakes, endless to this day 4.3 treatment process: cognition, science and mechanism are indispensable

5 SARS: the first global plague in the 21st century 5.1 Origin: Human eating civet 5.2Outbreak: boosted by China's population movement, a short-term impact on the economy, and continued to touch the society 5.3 The course of fighting: information disclosure is the turning point of war epidemic

6 others: leprosy, anthrax, yellow fever, tuberculosis, malaria, typhoid, mers

7 inspiration

7.1 The plague has a devastating effect on human society

7.2 plague crisis is often the catalyst for the progress of human civilization 7.3 plague is produced in the process of human settlement, domestication of animals, cities and other civilizations 7.4 killing wild animals is becoming an important cause of new infectious diseases 7.5 science is the most powerful weapon in the history of human war and epidemic 7.6 the government should pay attention to epidemic prevention and make information open and transparent 7.7 A sound public health system is fundamental to epidemic prevention 7.8 pestilence has no borders, and the world should join hands to fight against it 7.9 Future infectious diseases remain a major threat to human society

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Some notes on physical investment and financial trading this week

Talk to me my thoughts in this outbreak global expansion, 1, first of all, I am clearly stressed it is worth a month ago the global alert 2 if you want to make money you must pay attention to it, no matter you are now selling gold or index, you are a profitable that is why I am stressed that everybody should have the investment, because now in China and Italy, for example, most of the factories have to stop working, and you can still get through investment after stop working 3. I did not make frequent transactions in this outbreak, because the broker was upgrading and I was looking for real estate projects in various countries. If I have time, I will share why I chose to invest in real estate at this time

I buy two apartments in this month, a pattaya in Thailand, one in the Philippines coast, (I don't have to buy a house in Hong Kong, the appreciation space is very few, and higher risk), purchase the southeast Asia region there are three main reasons: 1 the rental return here in Asia is reasonable 2 great appreciation of space 3 there are many European holidaymakers and one reason is that for a long time, I think through this outbreak, most of the Chinese and European people will invest in some apartments here, we will usher in the new world population flow in advance by outbreaks,

I don't publish the name of the building I bought (because it's suspected of advertising, ahaha).

(southeast Asia has seen a collapse in tourism because of the outbreak, with many prime properties offering low price opportunities, and will see a boom in tourism when the outbreak is over

Note: the real investors should not be limited to a certain item, most people follow me on twitter for gold and foreign exchange transactions and earn money, this is good, but the quality of real estate investment is also very necessary, because the real estate investment can bring you a passive income (if you don't understand the passive income can query wikipedia)

I will continue to post some of my trading signals and recommendations for international futures and precious metals after the broker upgradeThe gold boom I holdings of gold mining shares yield performance is good, but now I don't suggest that we invest in stocks, because at the moment there are no global stock market bottomed out signals, and possibly down further, the current of attention to Europe and the Middle East as far as possible to the outbreak of epidemic prevention ability, the crude oil production and international grain futures prices have a significant impact

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About today's new virus

With regard to the current outbreak of the virus in Italy and Iran, it is not surprising that the outbreak of the same virus occurred in South Korea, Japan and Singapore, but at present only Singapore has followed China's virus epidemic prevention program, and various countries have begun to restrict the construction of factories.

It should be noted that these four countries are currently the major chip manufacturing countries in the world. Because China has been isolated for more than 35 days, many Chinese factories are ready to work again, and the Chinese manufacturing industry may take most of the orders. This has been reflected in China's stock price index, and the actual number of infected people in the United States has surpassed the data released by the government, which is the main reason why the S & P 500 index fell sharply today.

In fact, I suggest that you pay close attention to the spread and mortality of the virus as I do. It will certainly have an impact on everyone on the earth. This is a globalized world. You can't lose your attention to it because of the reports that the government avoids for some social stability, which will miss many opportunities for you.

So what's going to happen in Italy? At present, the stock market has begun to fall, the school has been closed, and the supply of materials in the supermarket has started to be insufficient. If the epidemic continues to spread, the shutdown of factories and the shortage of medical materials will begin to affect the manufacturing industry in Europe. In addition, we should also not forget South America and Africa, where the epidemic prevention capacity and medical resources are even more lacking

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In the contradiction of constant choice, people put on masks, burn the past, and arm themselves.

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This is Hong Kong photographed by the Russian photography team, in the former tranquility（Reprint）

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How long have you never seen the sunset quietly?

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You always meet someone,It suits you just rightDon't compromiseCan act pettishlyLove and tacit understanding, you have to wait.​​​​

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I'm here. How are you?