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Tennessee coronavirus growth remains steady as state opens back up

Tennessee's coronavirus count continues to grow at a steady pace with the rate over the past five days projecting to more than 450,000 cases over the next 100 days.

At the moment, however, that's trending downward from the 10-day average which projects to more than a million cases. The 20-day average projects to more than 765,000.

This comes as Tennessee and several other Southern states begin to relax social distancing guidelines by allowing restaurants and other stores to open back up as long as they don't exceed 50 percent capacity.

Tennessee cases up more than 10 percent in two days

Tennessee added 424 more cases today for a total of 8,266 to date. The past two days account for 10.55 percent of all cases to date in the state so we are still growing quickly.

In fact, our 5-day average rate of growth is equivalent to just over one million cases compounded over the next 100 days so we definitely need to see that slow down even as we open back up. The 10-day rate compounded over 100 days is just under 700,000 so we're trending upward sharply over the last five days mainly due to the rush of cases over the last two days. I'll add 20-day and 30-day rates when all of those days are above the 4,500-case level, as the daily growth rates are more stable beginning with April 9.

Suffice it to say, at the moment, the current growth rate in Tennessee would still lead to hundreds of thousands of cases by August 4 - the target date used by the IHME model. (This isn't a prediction, but just an acknowledgement of where the math currently would lead us.)

Tennessee prepares to open as total cases set a single-day record

So as we prepare to start opening back up in Tennessee, the state registered its largest single-day jump in cases with a total today of 448 new cases. The 6.06 percent increase in new cases also represents the biggest single-day increase since April 9. Fortunately, we continue to have a low death rate here with only nine new deaths for a total of 166 deaths to date.

As part of my ongoing work for class, I'm going to track Tennessee's data specifically as we revert to the original Trump Administration policy (i.e., what we'll call the Miracle Plan which counts on this virus miraculously disappearing). Based on daily average increases, this is where we stand projecting those rates over 100 days or roughly through the same period covered by the IHME model:

1-day rate: Today's 6.06 percent rate compounded over 100 days is the equivalent of 2.65 million cases.

5-day rate: The average growth rate of cases in Tennessee over the last five days projects to roughly 698,000 cases over 100 days.

10-day rate: The average growth rate of cases in Tennessee over the last 10 days projects to roughly 679,000 cases over 100 days.

I'll add 20-day and 30-day rates when those numbers include dates where Tennessee's total cases exceeded 4,500 total cases.

CONCLUSION: Our growth rate over the past five days indicates a slight increase upward, but we'll have a better idea of overall trend rates when we are able to include the 20-day and 30-day pictures.

Fox relying on reality show doctors as experts during pandemic

When you can’t find any experts who support your political agenda, you end up with a line-up that looks like Dr. Phil, Dr. Oz and Dr. Drew. In other words, that’s what you get on Fox News.

Dr. Phil has a doctorate in psychology but isn’t licensed to practice in any state. He is not a medical doctor or anything close to it. Fox is using him as an infectious disease expert because they know you won’t take the time to explore what his “doctor” title actually means (in this case, absolutely nothing). He is now apologizing for all the falsehoods he spewed in an interview the other night including the claim that 360,000 people die a year in swimming pool accidents (never mind the fact these aren’t infectious diseases, the real number for accidental drownings is about ONE PERCENT of that - around 3,500 which includes drownings in lakes, rivers, ponds, oceans, etc., not just swimming pools).

Dr. Oz is a heart surgeon not an infectious disease expert. This was his brilliant response to the coronavirus - “I just saw a nice piece in the Lancet arguing that the opening of schools may only cost us 2% to 3% in terms of total mortality,” he said. “You know, any life is a life lost, but to get every child back into school where they are being safely educated, being fed and making the most out of their lives with the theoretical risk on the backside might be a trade-off some folks would consider,” he said. It’s unclear what he’s advocating here but suggesting we somehow endanger or enable our nation’s school children to be carriers of this disease for the sake of economics is something you would never expect to come out of the mouth of a doctor. It’s un-American. He is, of course, in full apology mode.

Finally, Dr. Drew. Lol, oh boy. He’s an internist not an infectious disease expert. But what he really is is a TV doctor - a reality show clown who hosted shows like “ Sex Rehab with Dr. Drew” and “Celebrity Rehab with Dr. Drew.” He is, of course, apologizing for earlier comments indicating he didn’t take this seriously.

Why are they even on Fox? Well, real experts are interested in saving lives not putting them at risk so you resort to using clowns like this who have no reputation to put at risk while they support your agenda. Fox News doesn’t care if you live or die as long as you’re tuning in before they kill you.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/us/california-coronavirus-nurses-suspended-trnd/index.html

U.S. coronavirus growth over the last 30 days

We're at 34,617 coronavirus deaths in the U.S. All but 87 of those have occurred since March 16 - one month ago today. We're still adding close to 30,000 cases per day with testing still limited, and the death toll today was 2,174.

The IHME model has continued to be way off, but the last we heard from them several days ago, they had revised their death count to a projected 68,000 - up from 61,000 - by August. We're halfway there in a month.

The seven-day total (not counting Tuesday which was 6,185 but included adjustments) is 13,621 - an average of 1,945.86 deaths per day. We're above that right now, and if anything like those numbers continues over the next 30 days, then we will be at more than 90,000 deaths. Who knows what will happen as there are still more than 585,000 unresolved cases out of the 677,570 cases in the U.S. along with the roughly 30,000 new cases added each day, but it just illustrates how quick we can get to 100,000 for the folks who continue to struggle with how that is possible.

Comparing U.S. coronavirus numbers with Europe’s hardest-hit countries

The estimated combined population of Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom is 325 million - roughly the same as the United States. Those five countries rank second through six in total coronavirus cases behind the U.S.

As of 3/16/20, the United States has 667,225 cases according to John Hopkins University’s coronavirus tracker. Those five European countries have a combined 739,559 cases.

In terms of deaths, the U.S. has recorded a total of 38,628 while the combined total of those five European countries is 77,237. By that measure, the U.S. has recorded about half the cases that Europe’s hardest-hit countries have registered.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Coronavirus deaths surge as CDC changes guidelines

The past two days have seen more records set for total deaths due to coronavirus. A total of 2,405 deaths were registered on Tuesday before at least another 2,482 were added on Wednesday.

Part of the surge is due to changes in CDC guidelines. The CDC now recommends that deaths list coronavirus as the “probable” cause be included in official death tallies. It’s likely that the surge will continue for the time-being, but also will lead to more accuracy in assessing the impact of the coronavirus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

U.S. surges into lead with most coronavirus deaths worldwide

The United States has passed Italy for the most deaths of any country worldwide attributed to the coronavirus.

According to the Johns Hopkins coronavirus tracker, more than 20,000 Americans nationwide have been killed by the viral outbreak. New York alone has more cases than any other country with 180,000+ recorded so far. That accounts for more than one in every three U.S. cases which now stand at nearly 520,000.

If there’s any good news, it’s that officials think the virus may peak in hard-hit states like New York and New Jersey sometime this weekend. The worst is yet to come in other heavily-populated states like Florida and Texas, however.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/11/health/us-coronavirus-updates-saturday/index.html

New estimates suggest 60,000 American deaths by August

The latest models suggest 60,000 Americans could die from coronavirus by August which are much lower than previous estimates. Those models assume that all states will implement robust social distancing policies through the end of August.

Models make a lot of assumptions so call me a little skeptical based on current trends that we will limit this to 60,000 deaths. At this moment, the U.S. has recorded 16,294 deaths and 25,119 recoveries out of a total of 456,828 cases. That leaves 415,415 cases unresolved. In the meantime, we are still adding roughly 30,000 cases and nearly 2,000 deaths per day to those totals.

Using a snapshot of where we are today, limiting the coronavirus impact to 60,000 deaths would mean recording just 43,706 deaths out of the remaining 415,415 unresolved cases - and that doesn’t even account for those additional cases and deaths.

Will the current administration show the patience to endure another five months or more of extreme social distancing to make these projections possible? Even if they do, the math seems stacked against us at the moment. And I find it hard to believe the Trump administration will allow these extreme measures to continue that far into an election year.

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/830664814/fauci-says-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-may-be-more-like-60-000-antibody-tests-on-way

U.S. coronavirus cases exceed combined total of Spain, Italy, Germany

Over the past couple of days, the growth of coronavirus cases in the United States has increased to the point that the nation’s total exceeds the cumulative number of cases in Spain, Italy and Germany combined. Those countries rank behind the United States in total number of cases, and the American count is nearly 40,000 more than the cumulative total of the other three countries.

At the current rate (still more than 30,000 per day), the U.S. will soon add France’s total to that cumulative number. That’s according to the data provided by Johns Hopkins University’s coronavirus tracker.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Immigrant enclaves ravaged by coronavirus outbreak

Some of the areas hit hardest by the coronavirus outbreak are immigrant enclaves like a small section of central Queens that has recorded more than 7,000 cases.

Immigrants often share space in apartments with several residents per room, and outbreaks have been hard to contain with individuals so densely packed in these areas. In some cases, residents have been forced out of rented rooms and apartments after showing symptoms left to fend for themselves on limited incomes.

While there are signs that the coronavirus outbreak may be abating in some areas, that’s not yet the case in New York neighborhoods at the epicenter of the outbreak - places like Elmhurst, East Elmhurst, Jackson Heights and, ironically, a section known as Corona.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/nyregion/coronavirus-queens-corona-jackson-heights-elmhurst.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Adding context to the coronavirus numbers

I thought I'd share some numbers that the current coronavirus epidemic is being compared to. These are some of the numbers people keep throwing around with no context:

The 2009-10 flu pandemic (i.e., swine flu) April 12, 2009-April 10, 2010 60.8 million cases/12,469 deaths

Deaths from automobile accidents January 1, 2019-December 31, 2019 38,800 deaths

SARS pandemic 20022002-03 774 deaths worldwide

Seasonal flu 2019-20 Fall of 2019 through current (numbers as of 2/28/20) 29 million cases/16,000 deaths

Seasonal flu 2018-19 Fall of 2018 through summer of 2019 35.5 million cases/34,200 deaths

Seasonal flu 2017-18 Fall of 2017 through summer of 2018 45 million cases/61,000 deaths

2019-20 coronavirus pandemic January 21, 2020-current 175,067 cases/3,415 deaths

So what’s the difference? Well, all the numbers above are annual numbers for an entire outbreak, or in the case of automobile accidents, a calendar year.

So, yes, if you look at the context, there are good reasons why we didn't shut the country down for any of the other numbers above. None of those numbers were anywhere near the level of overwhelming hospital systems. None of them ever approached the daily death toll we are already seeing barely two months into this outbreak - at least not until they were peaking. The numbers are incomparable.

Yesterday, we registered 20,000+ new cases in one day for the first time. We logged 500+ deaths for the first time. The growth suggests that sometime in the next week, we could be reporting more than a thousand deaths a day. The numbers suggest the final totals could be more than the swine flu, 2019 automobile deaths and the last three to four season flu seasons combined, and those are best-case scenarios at this point.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The New York Times and other reliable national media warned us for weeks what would happen in New York, and it’s playing out before our eyes. In the coming days, this will begin to play out in Detroit, Chicago and New Orleans. I’ve also been blogging and giving you the math showing how the U.S. was on pace to take over the top spot, and here we are. We are growing in leaps and bounds, far faster than the quarantined world, and we are already 18,000 cases ahead of Italy which passed China today. I’m telling you now we will have double the cases reported by China and Italy combined within a week’s time at current rates. Those are indisputable, mathematical certainties even if we all isolated immediately. But we can make a difference in the weeks to come if we do.

We needed a clear national strategy weeks ago. We need a clear national strategy NOW. With roughly 20,000 new cases a day and growing, the U.S. is on pace to be hundreds of thousands of cases ahead of the nearest country in the not too distant future.

Here’s what you can do without waiting on the government to tell you. Stay at home. Stay isolated. Don’t inadvertently become an asymptomatic spreader of the disease.

Stay safe, my friends.

U.S. coronavirus cases closing in on 20,000 per day

One of my angles here has been looking at the math of the coronavirus spread and trying to bring some context to how fast we are growing compare to other countries.

The latest update puts us at 83,507 with almost 18,000 confirmed cases just today. That's moved us ahead of China and Italy as I’ve been saying for several days now. The 18,000 cases today are the most any single country has added in a single day, and I don't know that we've reach the cutoff yet; it's possible this will finish today with 20,000 cases.

As crazy as it sounds, if we continue at this growth rate, it will only be a few days before we have as many cases combined as China and Italy - the No. 2 and 3 countries now on the list. After reaching 65,000 yesterday, we are on a pace to double that in roughly three days so the doubling rate that I've spoken of is not decreasing. And we only have to double four more times to be in the millions.

While China and Italy and other major countries have had some success with containment, the U.S. is seeing its daily number skyrocket. After some signs that New York might be improving, we got the news today that cases there increased by 40 percent with 100 deaths in a single day from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

And even here in Tennessee, the growth rate is staggering - from 667 two days ago to 957 today. Throw in California doubling now every two to three days, and you're incredible growth from coast to coast.

U.S. deaths pass 1,000 milestone

The United States passed an important milestone in the war against the coronavirus Wednesday passing the 1,000-death mark. Officially, 1,041 deaths have been attributed to coronavirus with 280 of those in New York City and no end in sight.

The U.S. is quickly becoming the epicenter of the coronavirus with more than 68,000 deaths - only about 6,000 fewer than hard-hit Italy, and roughly one day’s tally away from also passing China’s 81,000 which appears to have stabilized in recent days.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

NYC cases approach 2,000; members of Congress test positive

We’re nearing a milestone in New York City as the number of positive coronavirus cases approaches 2,000. Much of the jump is attributed to an increase in testing as more than one-third of all tests in New York so far took place on Tuesday. Nevertheless, it underscores just how many undetected cases potentially remain as the virus spreads.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

U.S. coronavirus cases top 4,400

By the end of the day, it’s likely we will have added a thousand coronavirus cases since yesterday. At the moment, we’ve added almost 20 percent of all known U.S. cases in the past 24 hours.

New York city is one of the American epicenters for the coronavirus with more than 500 cases, and the number is growing quickly. Today, Governor Cuomo announced that hospitals should consider delaying elective surgeries, and the city is exploring using college dormitories, former nursing homes and other buildings as emergency overflows for the expected increase in the number of patients.

https://www.lohud.com/story/news/health/2020/03/16/ny-plans-turn-college-dorms-into-medical-sites-fight-covid-19/5061163002/

The federal government has clearly been caught flat-footed. Today the President basically told governors they were on their own when it comes to finding the needed respirators and medical equipment.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-respirators.html

Of course, for many people, the actions being taken by some to stem the spread of coronavirus is still an overreaction.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-hype-overreaction-social-distancing.html

Dr. Anthony Fauci who is leading the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force disagrees - “'if it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/487639-fauci-if-it-looks-like-youre-overreacting-youre-probably-doing-the

Meanwhile, the latest heat map from Johns Hopkins finds the virus continuing to rapidly expand in Europe in North America.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

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