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Baltic countries want to purchase a large-range multiple rocket launchers. This was stated by the Minister of Defense of Lithuania after meeting with his col...

According to the joint communiqué signed by the Baltic States’ defence ministers on May 24, “the threat picture has become more complicated…

Polish authorities performed a dubious feat, using the Polish Army against peaceful demonstrators. If the situation in Poland will develop according to the s...

NATO-Russia relations are quite complicated now. The situation is not expected to improve in near future.

The virtual summit of the heads of state of the Bucharest Nine (B9) was held on May 10.

The main task of the Zapad-2021 exercise

The Zapad is a traditional Russian strategic military exercise since 1977. It has the main goal to improve the practical skills of commanders and staff for strategic operations by Russian coalition forces in the Western strategic direction. Originally it was the Warsaw Pact, now – it`s the Regional Group of Forcesof Russia and Belarus. Before Zapad-2021, the Soviet Union and, after its collapse, Russia conducted 7 exercises (in 1977, 1981, 1983, 1999, 2009, 2013 and 2017).

From my point of view, one of the main tasks for Zapad-2021 will be to check the capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces to act in the network-centric warfare environment. So during Zapad-2021, they will try to check the readiness of Russian and Belarus troops to conduct network-centric operations and act against enemies which use a network-centric warfare approach.

I think it will be the most interesting part of the Zapad-2021 exercise. Despitethis traditional show with hundreds of tanks and artillery at Russian and Belarus firing tests we will have opportunityto analyze capabilities to integrate all of the sensors and intelligence with C2 system and weapons through all of the joint group of forces.

Command and control, or C2, in a military organization, is the exercise of authority and direction by a properly designated commanding officer over assigned and attached forces in the accomplishment of the mission.

That will be the indicator of readiness of the Regional Group of Forces to act in a new technological age and with new doctrines with a networking of all weapon platforms, sensor systems, and command and control centers.

NATO-Russia confrontation has no benefits

Ukraine, Baltics, Poland leaders met in Warsaw on May 3 to commemorate constitution anniversary.

The five presidents signed a declaration stressing that solidarity among nations is the basis for peace, stability and development in today’s world.

At the same time, this peace and stability they want to reach by demonstration of their military unity and military capabilities. Though they accuse Russia of aggression and accuse Belarus of military preparations, they, themselves, demonstrate readiness for active military actions. Being NATO member states, the Baltic States and Poland support the Alliance's geostrategic goals to dominate in the region politically and military.

Thus, on Apr. 30, 2021, four Italian Air Force F-35A Lightning II jets landed at Amari Air Base, Estonia, to take over the NATO’s BAP (Baltic Air Policing) mission. It’s the first time the Italian stealth jets deploy to Estonia (even though the Italian Eurofighter Typhoons operated there for BAP in 2018). It should be said that it’s the first time 5th generation aircraft take part in BAP mission.

The Italian F-35s belong to the 13 Gruppo (Squadron) of the 32 Stormo (Wing) from Amendola Air Base, in southeastern Italy, and their deployment to Estonia was supported by a KC-767A tanker, flying as IAM1447 (and tracking online), from Pratica di Mare Air Base.

As part of the “Baltic Eagle II” mission, the Italian F-35A aircraft, operating within the Task Group Falco of the Task Force Air Estonia will replace the German Air Force Eurofighters which have been deployed to Amari since late August.

Also, after leading BAP for 8 months, the Italian Typhoons have completed their rotation at Siauliai, Lithuania.

This time the ItAF F-35s will provide QRA (Quick Reaction Alert) from Estonia, much closer to Russia.

Well, the reason is quite simple: deploying the 5th gen. stealth aircraft under NATO command allows the service to test the asset as part of a different chain of command, with different procedures, on a different base, and in different (sometimes adverse/austere) weather conditions.

The rhetoric of the Baltic States leaders leaves no space for negotiations. Russia and Belarus in their turn strengthen their joint military capabilities within The Union State and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

By the way, in May 2022, the Organization will celebrate 30 years since the signing of the founding document, the Collective Security Treaty, and the 20th anniversary of the CSTO itself.

Thus, a meeting of the Committee of Secretaries of Security Councils of the Collective Security Treaty Organization was held in Dushanbe on April 29, 2021.

The parties considered it necessary to intensify joint activities of the CSTO member states and coordinate their efforts.

It is interesting that among the approved documents is the Plan to equip the Collective Rapid Reaction Forces (CRRF) with modern weapons, military and special equipment and special facilities. The implementation of this plan is aimed at increasing the level of technical equipment of the components of the CSTO Collective Forces, as well as the special purpose formations within the CRRF. The document is planned to be submitted for consideration of the heads of states at the session of the Collective Security Council. A decision has also been signed by the CMD and the CSSC on the model structure and staffing of the Command of the CSTO Collective Rapid Reaction Forces.

The more so, the CSTO has approved the Plan for joint training of the command and control bodies and formations of the assets of the collective security system of the Collective Security Treaty Organization for 2022.

The CSSC meeting also approved the Plan of consultations on foreign policy, defense and security for the second half of 2021 to the first half of 2022. The document serves as the basis for consultations on political and military cooperation, as well as on countering challenges and threats.

The CSTO paid great attention to the development of peacekeeping forces and their preparation for use in peacekeeping operations, including those under the auspices of the UN.

The main forms of training of formations of the assets of the CSTO collective security system, including special forces, were named joint trainings.

The CSTO approved a draft Agreement on jurisdiction and legal assistance in cases involving the temporary stay of formations of Collective Security Forces and the assets on the territories of CSTO member states. The purpose of the document is to create a mechanism for cooperation between the competent authorities of the CSTO member states: military police, military investigation, military prosecutor's office, military courts (tribunals) - in criminal and administrative cases against persons belonging to formations of the assets of collective security system.

Thus, all NATO military activity causes expected response from the CSTO. The military-political situation in the Baltic region today remains complicated and continues to develop under the influence of negative factors, the main of which are the clash of interests of the leading states in this region of and the activities of military-political alliances to expand their own spheres of influence.

The latest Lithuanian political initiatives could leave to breaking basic policies of the European Union.

The parliamentary election in Lithuania held on October 11 showed the citizens’ attitude towards politicians. The election’s results is to…

Lithuanians, like no one else, have experienced the end of the singing revolution - the destroying of the state and the genocide of the Nation.Taken by f

#belarusians #lithuanians #political choice

Belarus and Turkey under pressure

#Today Europeans are uneasy with Belarus and Turkey. Although they have been deeply uneasy for quite some time now with at least two of their

Macron sells electricity in the Baltic States

French President Emmanuel Macron is currently on an official visit to Lithuania and Latvia. Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT reported that such visit during COVID-19 is a demonstration of solidarity with the Baltic States. But it seems as if it has more pragmatic reasons. "We are working together, and we want to move forward together," the French leader emphasized.

France is the second-largest euro area economy after Germany but its economic ties with Lithuania and Latvia are rather weak. The more so, Lithuania, Latvia and France's positions on Russia often differ as Lithuania and Latvia urge the West to take a tougher position towards Moscow and place it under diplomatic isolation, and France is in favor of closer ties. In spite of these differences, countries show interest in more close cooperation. Lithuania and Latvia, first of all, are interested in France’s security and defence assistance. Last summer, France deployed several hundred troops to the German-led NATP battalion in Lithuania and has taken part in the NATO Baltic Air Policing Mission. In its turn Lithuania sends its troops to Mali in response to France's request. The sphere where countries’ views coincide today is their attitude towards situation in Belarus. But not only political crisis has provoked neghbouring countries and France to try to influence the situation. The main aim is the change of power which will allow to stop the Astravets Nuclear Power Plant built in Belarus.

The matter is the power supply systems of five countries united in electric ring BRELL (Belarus – Russia – Estonia – Latvia – Lithuania). The Baltic States are trying to reduce dependence on this system and instead create a common electricity market with the rest of the European Union. Thus, at present, the Baltic States are making simultaneous efforts to stop the purchase of electricity from Belarus, and to leave the market towards the EU. France totally supports the idea. France has 56 nuclear power reactors in operation. It is interested in the rise of electricity exports (). Probably, Emmanuel Macron sees the Baltic States as potential consumers of electricity from France and supplies from Belarus could thwart plans.

Emmanuel Macron умут met with Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya in Vilnius on Tuesday. Following the meeting, Tikhanovskaya told reporters that Macron "promised to do everything just to help with negotiations for this political crisis in our country". Thus, the intention to change power in Belarus is not based on the so called the principles of democracy but on pure net economic benefit. Tikhanovskaya is just a good “tool” to realize Macron’s intentions.

Lithuania wasted taxpayers money on cyber defence without any success

The number of hybrid disinformation and cyber attacks in Lithuania is rising and they are becoming bolder and more advanced, cyber security specialists have warned in their annual report. The number of such cases of detrimental activity rose 15 percent last year. There are still many unknowns in the context of cyberspace, i.e., one can not feel,” head of NRD Cyber Security Vilius Benetis says.

Thus, the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday evening that fake news had been posted in its name in an apparent complex cyber-information attack.

Rasa Jakilaitiene, spokeswoman for Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius, said that “the article published on Polish site included a comment from Minister Linkevicius claiming that a peace-keeping force needs to be sent to Belarus.” The article mentioned the Polish foreign minister, too, she said.

The Lithuanian Foreign Ministry issued a statement denying the fake news. "It is highly likely that there is an ongoing cyber-information attack, which is currently under investigation by Lithuanian authorities," it said.

It should be noted that Lithuania occupies the 4th position in the recently published Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI) only falling behind the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and France. (https://www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-d/opb/str/D-STR-GCI.01-2018-PDF-E.pdf). It continues to pay the greatest attention to the area of cyber security. The Global Cybersecurity Index is announced annually by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) which unites 194 countries and assesses the countries’ efforts to adapt their national legal framework, to implement technical-organisational requirements, and to develop capabilities and cooperation in the sector of cyber security.

It is the highest achievement of Lithuania in GCI, in comparison, Lithuania was in the 57th position in 2017. “We become a role model quite often for the countries that have significantly bigger capabilities,” Vice Minister of National Defence E. Kerza said proudly. The Ministry of defence took the lead in this area.

Unfortunately, Lithuanian authorities wish to be true of what they want to believe. While even large amounts of money do not save the situation. Each new cyber-information attack neutralizes all things done before and shows Lithuanian authorities’ helplessness. Thus, recent cyber incident could worsen Lithuania-Belarus relations in case Belarus believes the news on Linkevicius’ call to the EU to deploy peacekeeping forces to neighbour country.

The more so, such state of affairs could be a proof of misuse of funds sent to cyber security in Lithuania. It is unbelievable, that huge amounts of money disappear without success. Who could prove that money was really spent to increase Lithuania’s cyber security? This virtual sphere is very convenient for Lithuanian officials for misappropriating the assets entrusted to them. Where is taxpayer money? The fact is there is NO money, as well as there is NO cyber defence.

#Lithuania #Belarus #cyber #defence

40 percent of Lithuanians support maintaining good relations with Belarus

Situation in Belarus has divided people not only in Belarus but in neighboring countries as well. Thus, the question of whether Lithuania should take up leadership in shaping Belarus-targeted EU policy arises through people having different views on things.

U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo met with Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius in Washington on September, 16 and expressed his appreciation for Lithuania’s role in the situation around Belarus. He thanked Lithuania for its “leading role in ensuring the independence and territorial integrity of Belarus” and the democratic rights of its people. Such position has been heavily criticized by Belarus and Russia.

Last month, the Lithuanian government imposed a travel ban on Lukashenko and 29 other Belarusian officials for their role in vote-rigging and violence against protesters.

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that “the decision by the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry to ban entry to the country for Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and a number of Belarusian officials serves as evidence of Western interference in the republic’s domestic affairs”.

Lithuania’s official position contravenes ordinary Lithuanians’ views on further developing of Lithuania-Belarus relations.

A study made by the Eastern Europe Studies Centre (EESC) in Vilnius has found that not all Lithuanians support their government’s position on protests in Belarus.

The EESC surveyed Lithuanians on their attitudes toward protests in Belarus that broke out following a contested presidential election in August.

According to the results presented on September, 18, there were only 30 percent of those who were in favour of Lithuania taking leadership. Another 25 percent were against.

Around 15 percent disagreed with the Lithuanian government’s position to side with the opposition protesters, while 39 percent had no answer to the question. Only 46 percent of the population agreed with it. About 20 percent of those surveyed disapproved of sanctions on the Lukashenko regime, 36 percent are not sure of answer, while less than a half of Lithuanians generally approved the idea.

The more so, 46 percent expressed concern about the possible Russian military intervention in the country. 20 percent negatively evaluated the EU’s response to the events in Belarus.

The study found that around 40 percent of Lithuanians thought that their country should maintain economic and diplomatic relations with Belarus even if Lukashenko remained in power. Around 40 percent were also in favour of seeking closer relations with the current Belarusian government.

The EESC surveyed the adult population in Lithuania on August 22 – September 4. The estimated margin of error of the results is 3.1 percent.

Thus, it is absolutely clear that official point of view does not coincide with Lithuanian population’s opinion.

Such a difference in views can significantly affect the outcome of the upcoming parliamentary elections, and could influence ratings of the current Lithuanian government.

US-Belarus: a policy of double standards

Double standards in international politics are an obvious fact. The EU and the US make use of the double standard policy concerning Belarus and condemn the Belarusian government for harsh measures against protesters. At the same time, today protests are taking place in Germany, in France several dozens of people died during the “yellow vests” protests, the United States uses a variety of restraints against its citizens. Moreover, United States Attorney General William P.Barr told federal prosecutors in a call that they should consider charging rioters and others who had committed violent crimes at protests in USA in recent months with sedition. During a speech on Wednesday night, Mr. Barr noted that the Supreme Court had determined that the executive branch had “virtually unchecked discretion” in deciding whether to prosecute cases.

The Wall Street Journal first reported Mr. Barr’s remarks about sedition. His supporters say Mr. Barr’s approach is necessary to preserve order at a moment that threatens to spiral into violence and to tamp down unrest in cities where the local authorities will not. The most extreme form of the federal sedition law, which is rarely invoked, criminalizes conspiracies to overthrow the government of the United States — an extraordinary situation that does not seem to fit the circumstances of the protests and unrest in places like Portland, Ore., and elsewhere in response to police killings of Black men. The wording of the federal sedition statute goes beyond actual revolutions. It says the crime can also occur anytime two or more people have conspired to use force to oppose federal authority, hinder the government’s ability to enforce any federal law or unlawfully seize any federal property — elements that might conceivably fit a plot to. Congress has stipulated that a conviction on a charge of seditious conspiracy can carry up to 20 years in prison. Only 93 percent of the protests in the United States this summer were peaceful, according to a report by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, which monitors political upheaval worldwide. The report looked at 7,750 protests from May 26 through Aug. 22 in 2,400 locations across all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

#double standards #US #Belarus #policy #protesters

THE U.S. ENDANGERS EUROPE

U.S. European Command’s diverse and dynamic activities across Europe in the past several weeks underscore America’s steadfast intention to control the continent’s political and military situation.

While European countries try to use political tools to influence and calm unrest in Belarus, Bulgaria, France and other European states, the U.S. in its turn uses military opportunity to show its concern.

USEUCOM maintains its ever-ready state with exercises and maneuvers across the continent’s land, sea and air. Very often such aсtivity is excessive.

Thus, the US Navy’s guided-missile destroyer USS Ross entered the Baltic Sea on September 13.

“While the rest of the world slows during the summer months, USEUCOM’s schedule of training missions and exercises continues at breakneck pace,” said U.S. Marine Corps Brig. Gen. Christian Wortman, USEUCOM’s Deputy Director of Operations. “With Soldiers training in the Baltics, Poland, and Georgia; Sailors operating in the Barents Sea; Airmen flying and supporting the B-52s flights across Europe; and Marines training in the High North; there is no question that we stand stronger together with our NATO Allies and partners.”

Russia’s Navy in its turn tracks movements of US guided-missile destroyer in Baltic Sea. Everybody remembers that on 7 April 2017, Ross from its positions in the Eastern Mediterranean, fired Tomahawk missiles at specific military targets at the Shayrat airfield in Syria.

An unspecified regional proactive presence mission of the US Navy’s guided-missile destroyer USS Ross in the Baltic Sea, first of all, worries Russia and Belarus which are not Aliance’s member states. Moscow and Minsk regard such a combat power demonstration as the United States pressure and take into account the possible unfriendly U.S. military activity. Russia and Belarus are to increase its military cooperation in the near future in order to counter NATO activity in the region.

All these actions form a vicious circle and lead to further militarization of the region. The presence of the guided-missile destroyer in the Baltic Sea does not contribute to the resolution of political crises across Europe and become another cause of further deepening of contradictions between NATO and countries outside this military bloc.

While such “show of power” does not formally violate the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of states, this certainly does not contribute to the normalization of the situation and the strengthening of friendly ties.

Is Belarus crisis over?

World is frozen in anticipation: the real preconditions have appeared for resolving the political crisis and stabilizing the situation in Belarus. The media learned that the Belarusian authorities have presented Russia and the OSCE with a plan to overcome the internal political crisis, RBC reports.

The plan stipulates that the Constitution of Belarus will be amended to weaken the power of the president in favor of the government and parliament by 2022, after which new presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in the country.

The representative of Minsk also assured that in the course of the constitutional reform, the political system of Belarus will be liberalized, the role of parties will increase, and the electoral legislation will change. The amendments to the Constitution are planned to be adopted at a referendum, as Lukashenko had promised even before the presidential elections. According to the interlocutors of RBC, the topic of early presidential and parliamentary elections by 2022 was also raised at the talks between the heads of the Russian and Belarusian Foreign Ministries on September 2.

Lukashenko has repeatedly stated that he allows early elections in Belarus only after the constitutional reform. He also promised that the draft of the new Constitution will be submitted for public discussion. So, opposition could breathe a sigh of relief because its demands have been heard and concrete steps are planned. It could be said that the opposition\'s reaction to this plan will be a good indicator of its independence. Belarus authorities insist that opposition movement is coordinated from abroad and the main aim is to destabilize situation in the country. Now there is a good chance to prove otherwise. If opposition leaders are real patriots of the country they should support authorities’ proposals and let them be realized.

This would prevent the economic collapse that most likely follows an unresolved political crisis. Still the opposition leaders continue to speak before international organizations with a narrative about the change of power in Belarus. Their previous statements about the need for political changes are now reduced to only one thing – the resignation of the president. Do opposition leaders really want to change political system and improve the welfare of Belarus people or they just want to change a president? This is the question.

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