Yes – Beatrix had dementia, and you’re right about the decentralisation of authority.
I’m not sure I’d say Elthina is weak-willed, though. Or, to be clear, I think the authorial intent is that we see Elthina as a kindly but ageing diplomat who is trapped between equally obstinate groups, but I don’t think that fits very well with the rest of the facts.
I think Elthina is very narrow in her goals, and the ‘weakness’ we keep hearing about is more a matter of people misjudging her aims. She won her reputation as a diplomat, ‘particularly [in disputes] involving the powerful Templar Order’. The closest we ever get to seeing her do that is when she comes between Meredith in Orsino in Act 3 – but all she does there is tell them both to stop talking, which is kind of the opposite of mediation. The only other thing that might count is Sebastian’s short story, which suggests that she is very good at getting people to think that what she wants is what they want.
But apparently she did step on some Templar toes at one point, and earned the respect of the city for it. That seems likely enough. After Threnhold was ousted, she had a shadowy revolution to manage: the nobility could hardly have liked ceding so much authority to the Chantry. Somebody had to smooth the ruffled feathers. Meredith is an excellent candidate for Knight-Commander, because while she is tough and perfectly willing to do brutal things if she believes they’re necessary, she doesn’t seem like a natural politician. She doesn’t know how to win people’s affection, and her primary motivation is just that she’s terrified of mages. As long as she’s allowed to run the Circle as she sees fit, she’s not going to cause her superiors trouble. People sometimes grumble about Meredith, but Elthina looks good.
Then there’s … well. All of Act 2. The Dumar family is becoming a problem. Marlowe is probably manageable enough, but he’s not exactly happy. He keeps calling in Hawke to try to find out why his city is on the brink of war, and Hawke just keeps discovering that the Chantry is doing it on purpose – his worst nightmare. Seamus, though, is going to be impossible. He’d be much harder for the Chantry to control. He is conveniently removed and Petrice, if she gets caught, goes too. If Hawke covers for her, she’s demoted to curb her not inconsiderable ambition.
The Qunari uprising is just a matter of manufacturing the Threnhold situation all over again: the city is in peril, and the Chantry just has to take on power to protect it. In the long term, the only way the city gets a proper Viscount again is if Hawke backs the Templars. Then they’ve got themselves a ruler so dedicated that they actually participated in an Annulment. They’re secure again.
Kirkwall was under Orlesian rule for a while, and still shows some signs of that. I suspect the Game is understood by the nobility, though they don’t play it as they do in Orlais. The whisper that Elthina is weak makes sense from people who honestly believed she would keep the Templars at bay, and found she didn’t when that no longer served her interests, and from people who need to pretend they believe that because she’s much too powerful to oust openly.
I think Elthina makes more sense as a strong leader, with her eye firmly on the Sunburst Throne. Make herself the power in the Free Marches, and she’s a good candidate. She’s just not a leader who cares very much about the people below her. The trouble, for her, comes when she loses out to Dorothea. Then she pretty much has to hold onto Kirkwall to have any chance of getting another shot – and her position is awkward, because her actions don’t necessarily match the new Divine’s political agenda.
But she and her various underlings have by then pushed the city to breaking point.
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