They’re Not Taking Your Country. They’re Keeping It Alive.
By
Qaisar Iqbal Janjua
There’s a nurse working a night shift in a Toronto hospital right now who was born in the Philippines. There’s a carpenter framing houses in Calgary who came from India six years ago. There’s a truck driver hauling produce across the Trans-Canada who left Pakistan with a suitcase and a credential Canada took three years to recognize. There’s a woman in Brampton — a mother — who showed up to build a life, and in 2024, her baby was one of the more than four in ten newborns in this country born to an immigrant mother.
These people are not a burden on Canada. In ways the current political conversation almost completely fails to grasp, they are Canada — or at least, increasingly, the version of Canada that still functions.
Here’s what nobody leading the charge against immigration wants to tell you. And here’s why the hatred that’s been building — the comments sections, the “Canada First” bumper stickers, the politicians who figured out that scapegoating newcomers moves votes — is not just morally ugly. It’s factually incoherent. It’s people screaming at the firefighters while the house burns.
We Need to Talk About the Number 1.25
In 2024, Statistics Canada confirmed that Canada’s total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman can expect to have — hit a record low of 1.25 children per woman. Ultra-low fertility, demographers call it. The same category as Italy, Japan, and South Korea. Countries quietly panicking about who is going to take care of their aging populations.
The number you need in your head is 2.1. That’s the replacement rate. That’s how many children per woman it takes just to keep a population stable — not growing, just stable. Canada is at 1.25.
We have been declining since 2009. The pandemic made it worse. And here’s the part that stops most people cold when they actually hear it: without immigration, Canada’s births-minus-deaths number has already approached zero. Some quarters, it goes negative. The total number of births in Canada would have been falling since 2010 — were it not for immigrant mothers, who now account for over 42% of all babies born in this country.
Let that settle. More than two in every five Canadian newborns has a mother who was born somewhere else. The people many Canadians have spent the last few years resenting are the people literally producing the next generation of Canadians.
“Just Have More Babies” — Let’s Actually Think About That
The most popular counter-argument among people who don’t want to sit with this data is: “Well, Canadians should just have more kids.” Okay. Let’s follow that logic to where it actually goes.
First — no country in the developed world has successfully engineered its way back to replacement-level fertility through policy. Not France, despite some of the most generous family benefits in the world. Not the Nordics. Pronatalist programs can nudge the numbers slightly at the margins; they cannot reverse a structural generational shift in how people live, when they have children, and what it costs to raise them. Women having fewer children later is not a failure of patriotism. It’s a rational response to expensive housing, precarious employment, inadequate childcare, and a world where raising a child well costs more than it ever has.
Second — and this is the part that kills the argument entirely — even if every Canadian woman started having three children tomorrow, not a single one of those children would be entering the workforce before 2043 at the earliest. The demographic crisis is not in the future. It is happening right now, in the staffing levels at your local hospital, in the construction timeline for your city’s housing, in the actuarial tables that determine whether CPP remains solvent when you retire.
The worker-to-retiree ratio in Canada was roughly 7 to 1 just fifty years ago. By 2035 — nine years from now — it is projected to drop to 2 to 1, as the entire baby boom generation completes its exit from the workforce. You cannot have more babies to solve a problem that arrives in nine years. That is not a plan. That is a wish.
What Actually Happens When You Run Out of Workers
The consequences of demographic collapse are not theoretical. They are the nurse who isn’t there when you need one. The surgery that gets postponed again. The infrastructure that doesn’t get built because there aren’t enough tradespeople. The pension cheque that gets smaller because there are fewer people paying into the pot.
From 2016 to 2021, immigrants accounted for roughly 80% of the growth in Canada’s labour force. By 2032, immigration is projected to account for 100% of Canada’s population growth. Not most. All.
This is not a political preference. It’s arithmetic. Canada’s immigration policy is not charity. It is not naive multiculturalism. It is a country doing the math on what it needs to survive as a functioning society and acting accordingly. The people arriving to fill our hospitals, build our homes, and pay into our retirement systems are not here to displace you. They are here because without them, the whole operation starts to break down.
When someone tells you that Canada is being “invaded” by immigrants, ask them who they think is going to be wiping their parents’ faces in the long-term care home in fifteen years. Ask them who is going to be framing the houses their kids can’t afford because there aren’t enough workers to build them. Ask them who is going to be paying the taxes that fund the services they depend on.
The answer, increasingly, is someone who was born somewhere else and chose here.
Why This Debate Keeps Going Sideways
Here’s the honest part. The people arriving to fill this demographic gap come predominantly from South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Caribbean, the Philippines, and Latin America. They come from there because that’s where the world’s growing working-age population is. Europe’s demographics are, if anything, worse than Canada’s. There is no version of this equation where Canada’s workforce gets replenished by people who look like the country did in 1965.
And that, beneath all the economic language and the housing complaints and the “Canadian values” rhetoric, is the actual problem many people have with it.
It’s worth saying plainly: if the concern about immigration were really about housing, the conversation would be dominated by zoning reform, density targets, pre-approved housing designs, and infrastructure funding — the documented causes of the housing crisis. If the concern were genuinely about wages, the conversation would be about employer compliance, temporary worker program abuse, and labour standards enforcement — the real mechanisms through which some workers get exploited.
Instead the conversation keeps returning to people. To who they are. Where they’re from. What language they speak at home. What they do on Friday night. That’s not a housing debate. That’s not an economic debate. That’s an identity grievance dressed in economic clothing — and it deserves to be named as such.
The Legitimate Criticisms (Yes, They Exist)
Immigration policy is not above criticism. The rapid expansion of temporary worker and international student programs under the previous government was, by credible accounts, poorly managed. It left hundreds of thousands of people in precarious limbo. It contributed to real wage pressures in certain low-income sectors. The pace of intake was not matched by investment in housing, healthcare capacity, or settlement services. These failures hurt newcomers most of all.
Economists are also right that immigration volume alone doesn’t automatically raise living standards. Integration quality matters. Credential recognition — the ongoing scandal of internationally trained doctors, engineers, and nurses locked out of their professions for years — matters enormously. Canada wastes an extraordinary amount of human capital through bureaucratic credential barriers, and that’s a problem worth getting angry about.
But none of that is an argument against immigration. It’s an argument for doing immigration better. The question of whether Canada needs immigration was settled by the data a long time ago. With a fertility rate of 1.25 and a worker-to-retiree ratio heading toward 2 to 1, debating whether to welcome newcomers is like debating whether a patient in haemorrhagic shock needs blood. The answer is not the interesting part. The interesting part is how you do it well.
The People Behind the Numbers
It’s easy to talk about fertility rates and dependency ratios and GDP contributions and forget that these are human beings. People who packed their lives into bags and said goodbye to everyone they knew. Who arrived in a country where the winters are brutal and the credential recognition process is a Kafkaesque nightmare and the welcome, lately, has been noticeably cooler than the promise suggested.
They came because Canada told them it wanted them. Because the immigration system — Express Entry, the Provincial Nominee Program, the refugee resettlement process — selected them and issued them invitations. And then, once they arrived, a vocal portion of the receiving population decided that actually, this was too many, too fast, too different.
That’s not a policy debate. That’s a bait and switch. And the people on the receiving end of it know exactly what it feels like.
The nurse from the Philippines, the carpenter from India, the truck driver from Nigeria — they are not problems to be managed. They are people who made an enormous bet on this country. And the data says, clearly and without ambiguity, that Canada needs them to win that bet far more than they need Canada to be ungrateful about it.
What This Is Really About
Canada is aging. Its birth rate is at a record low. Its natural population growth has essentially stopped. Its pension and healthcare systems depend on a worker-to-retiree ratio that is deteriorating every year. In this context, the people who chose to come here, to work here, to raise their children here, to pay into the systems that everyone draws from — they are not the threat.
The threat is the fiction that Canada can wall itself off from demographic reality and come out fine. The threat is politicians who have discovered that blaming newcomers is easier than explaining actuarial tables. The threat is a conversation so saturated with resentment that it can no longer see the people it’s talking about.
Those people are your coworkers. Your neighbours. Your kids’ teachers. The person who checked you out at the grocery store and the person who built the road you drove home on. They are also, increasingly, the people keeping this country’s lights on.
You don’t have to pretend the system is perfect to understand that they deserve better than what the current conversation is offering them.
And Canada deserves a conversation honest enough to admit what it actually needs — and grateful enough to acknowledge who is providing it.
Sources: Statistics Canada — Fertility and baby names, 2024; Statistics Canada Daily — Immigration as a source of labour supply (2022); C.D. Howe Institute — Balancing Canada’s Population Growth and Ageing Through Immigration Policy (2025); Government of Canada — Immigration Levels Plan 2023–2025; Migration Policy Institute — Understanding the Impact of Immigration on Demography (2025).













