Why Have The Prices of Gold Hit A 4 Year Low?
Gold rates in India have hit Rs. 23,500 for 22 karat gold and Rs. 25,133.69 24 karats per 10 gm, the lowest they have been in the last 4 years. How did this happen?
Gold price in India may fluctuate on a daily basis but if you look at historical data for the past 5 years, you will notice that starting from 2010, prices of gold rose steadily to slightly more than Rs. 2,800 per gram till the end of 2011 when they dipped to about Rs. 2,500 in the beginning of 2012. From there it rose again to reach Rs. 4,000 in the end of 2012 only to crash in the first half of 2013. It did manage to peak at a little over Rs. 3,000 per gram in the 3rd - 4th quarter of 2013 but the overall trend remained a declining one and today the prices stand at Rs. 2,249.03 per gram which is being called as a 4 year low for gold rates in India.
The question now is, how did this happen? The answer is far from simple. There are numerous factors that led to the fall in the price of gold but there are 2 factors that have affected gold the most.
US Dollar Becoming Stronger
(Image courtesy xe.com)
Ever since the last recession, the US dollar has been gaining strength against most of the currencies. In the case of the dollar vs the rupee, in 2010 it stood at a weak Rs. 46.05 to USD 1. But by 2013 it had gained strength and reached Rs. 67.09 to USD 1 in September of 2013. By August of 2015, it had come down to Rs. 63.98. Even though it has fallen in the last two years, the overall trend has been one of gaining strength which has led to a rise in the price of gold since gold is traded in USD. This rise makes gold more expensive to procure putting pressure on countries to acquire more gold to meet their needs thus lowering the demand for gold.
Low Demand
Having seen the prices fall, most investors are expecting to see a further decline in the prices of gold which is keeping them from investing in it. While the regular demand continues to remain in place, the seasonal peaks seen during festivals and weddings is not presenting itself for this reason. Even traders are not buying gold expecting the prices to fall further leading to a drop in the demand for gold. The expectation is that if the prices of gold fall by another Rs. 1,000 then the demand might pick up.
The expectation out of the price of gold is a further drop in the prices over the coming days. Analysts are hoping to see a revival in the demand for gold if the rupee manages to hold against the rising US dollar, specifically, if it manages to remain in the Rs. 61 to USD 1 bracket.













