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Price Hit This Year’s Low

Bitcoin declined further on Friday night, building upon its recent losses and establishing a fresh low for 2018.

The cryptocurrency dropped to $5,938.17, its lowest since November 2017, according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (BPI).

At this point, it had plunged 57.2% from the start of the year and roughly 70% from its all-time high of $19,783.21 set in December 2017, additional BPI figures show.

Bitcoin prices had recovered somewhat at the time of this writing, trading at $6,122.74.

Bitcoin's Downward Trend

The digital currency's most recent declines may simply be part of a downward trend that several analysts have mentioned.

Marius Rupsys, a digital currency investor, has repeatedly spoken to this development.

He emphasized that while Bitcoin has been pushing steadily lower, "The question is when big investors will come back."

"Retail traders might be actively buying and selling, but their volumes aren't sufficient to move market significantly to either side. 'Wait and see' is for larger investors, who try to get in crypto assets using OTC."

Potential Downside

Now that Bitcoin has fallen to a new, 2018 low, it could experience further downside, should bearish momentum continue.

Jon Pearlstone, publisher of the newsletter Cryptopatterns, stated recently that:

"If Bitcoin breaks the 2018 lows watch for a spike in volume and a possible fast drop in price towards the $5000 level." Credits:  Charles L Bovaird II

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin is trading marginally above $8,300 handle, having recovered from Asian low registered at $8,263. Bullish momentum faded away on Monday on approach to $8,600, thus digital coin No. 1 resumed the downside and slipped back below critical $8,400 level. BTC/USD has lost 2% during recent 24 hours, while trading volumes stabilized at $5.1B.

LMAX Exchange group announced the launch of cryptocurrency trading platform - LMAX Digital - dedicated solely to institutional clients. This FCA-regulated venture aims to bring digital assets to mainstream and facilitate their acceptance by institutional sector.

“We are furthering the legitimization of the cryptocurrency market by offering institutions a platform on which to acquire, trade and hold cryptocurrencies securely with high quality, deep liquidity,” said David Mercer, CEO of LMAX Exchange, in the official press release.

LMAX claims that the decision was made in response to numerous requests from existing clients, LMAX Digital will offer only the most liquid and established cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple and Bitcoin Cash.

While the news was supposed to be a strong bullish trigger as proves the heightened interest towards this type of assets from institutional players, the market was largely unmoved, drifting lower under weight of speculative positioning.

Bitcoin's technical picture

Technically, BTC/USD selling pressure increased as the coin broke below the short-term upside trendline at $8,340. Currently, it is trading at 100-SMA (hourly chart) at $8,295. Once this support is broken, the price will move lower towards $8,000 handle with the next target at $7,683 (23.6% Fibo). The upside is capped by $8,373 (200-SMA) on approach to $8,400 and 38.2% Fibo at $8,425.

Credits: Tanya Abrosimova

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Buffett Is Wrong

Legendary investor and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett has been a long-time bear on Bitcoin, using strong messages to tell investors that they will lose a great deal of money by sticking with the digital currency. Like “poison squared,” an expression he used to describe Bitcoin in interview with  CNBC last Saturday.

That was certainly enough to stall the digital currency’s recent rally towards the $10,000-mark, and sent it in the opposite direction towards the $9,000-mark. Other major cryptocurrencies followed suit.

While it’s hard for everyone to debate Mr. Buffett, some cryptocurrency experts think that he’s wrong on his assessment of Bitcoin. Darren Marble, CEO of CrowdfundX is one of them. "Although Warren Buffet has made the right call on many investments, he is dead wrong on Bitcoin, because he is totally clueless to the technology,” says Marble. “How could someone who doesn't use email possibly appreciate Bitcoin? They can't.”

Marble points to the strong performance of Bitcoin vis-à-vis Berkshire Hathaway over the last three years. “For the record, if you had invested in Berkshire Hathaway stock three years ago, you would be sitting on a 30% profit, whereas had you invested in Bitcoin in three years ago, you would have done 100 times better literally."

And he makes a stark prediction. “Years from now, when the dust settles, Warren Buffett's miss on Bitcoin will be the biggest miss of his career and will make his misses on Amazon and Google look forgivable."

Daniel Rice, Chief Technology Officer of Sagewise, is another cryptocurrency expert that takes issue with Mr. Buffett. "We disagree with Warren Buffet that Bitcoin is a zero-sum game,” says Rice.“While it’s true that Bitcoin acts differently from more traditional investments, this is not a negative in our view. Too often traditional investors forget Bitcoin is actually a technology infrastructure.” Credits: Panos Mourdoukoutas

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“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” - Warren Buffet

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin is trading marginally above $9,400, mostly unchanged since the beginning of the day. The digital currency No.1 gained nearly 6% over the previous week and touched the highest level since mid-March at $9,757. While the upside momentum has waned, the coin retains bullish bias from the longer-term perspective. It has been growing steadily for three weeks in a row and recovered over 46% form the recent low of $6,442.

Dull fundamental background and reduced crypto market volatility keep BTC locked n a range for the time being. Traders are looking for a fresh catalyst to drive the price above the strong resistance created by 200-DMA currently at $10,000. This psychologically important level is likely to cap the upside momentum as traders are apt to sell ahead of this threshold.  Once it is broken, Bitcoin may spike to new multi-month highs.

Bitcoin short-term technical picture

On the hourly chart, BTC/USD is moving within an upside trend, supported by 200-SMA (hourly interval) currently at $9,125. Th bullish bias remains in place as long as the price stays above the said MA. Once it is broken, the selling pressure may increase, taking BTC 50 $9,00 and further downs to $8,700. The upside is limited by $9,500, a sustainable move above this level will unleash bullish potential and take the coin towards $9,700 where fresh selling orders are clustered. Credits: Tanya Abrosimova

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Bitcoin is Like Regular Currency: St. Louis Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has provided some high-profile validation for a core premise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency. A blog post this week based on an earlier Fed research paper said that “bitcoin units have no intrinsic value” – but added that currencies “such as the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the Swiss france . . . have no intrinsic value either.”

The post, titled “Three Ways Bitcoin is Like Regular Currency,” doesn’t precisely endorse Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. In another recent report, the St. Louis Fed was critical of Bitcoin’s inefficiency. Cryptocurrency has also become rife with scams since its surge in value last year, and may constitute a global risk because it enables clandestine money laundering, capital flight, and tax evasion.

But the St. Louis Fed has provided a credible rebuttal to one of the most widespread and misguided criticisms of cryptocurrency: That, because it isn’t tied to a particular real-world commodity, it should have a monetary value of zero. As Fed researchers point out, since decoupling from the gold standard in the early 1970s, almost all global reserve currencies rely on nothing but trust to function as a media of value exchange.

In the case of the dollar, that’s mostly trust in the U.S. government and economy. For Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, it’s trust in computer code and, at least to some extent, developers.

Credits: David Z.

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BITCOIN WILL REPLACE GOLD AND SOAR TO $700K

Bitcoin is better than gold “on every front” and could eventually be worth around $700,000, according to an institutional investor.

John Pfeffer, a partner at UK-based Pfeffer Capital, made the remarks at the Sohn investment conference in New York. That event traditionally serves as a place for investors to recommend the best stocks to invest in – and has never seen anyone recommend cryptocurrency before.

“Bitcoin is the first viable candidate to replace gold the world has ever seen,” Mr Pfeffer said. "So if bitcoin becomes the dominant non-sovereign store of value, it could be the new gold, or new reserve currency."

He added: “Most [other] crypto assets out there are bad bets.”

Mr Pfeffer said that if bitcoin displaced 25 per cent of foreign reserves, the total worth of the bitcoin network would be somewhere in the region of $6.4 trillion. Bitcoin’s current market cap is currently around $150 billion, while one bitcoin is worth just under $9,000.

It is the first time a speaker has mentioned bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency as an investment opportunity at Sohn, and comes at a time that major hedge fund investors are placing their bets on the digital asset.

The renowned investor George Soros is reportedly preparing to invest in bitcoin, having previously called it a bubble. Billionaire investor Bill Miller revealed in December 2017 that half of his hedge fund was tied up in bitcoin. At the time, the value of one bitcoin was close to $20,000.

To reinforce his faith in bitcoin, Mr Pfeffer donated 10 bitcoins to the Sohn Foundation on the condition they did not cash them in for five years, saying: “Buy the ticket, take the ride.” Credits:  Anthony Cuthbertson

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Why is Bitcoin On Rise Again

Bitcoin is back from the brink. 

After topping at near $20,000 in mid-December, the world's leading cryptocurrency by market cap has been in nothing but freefall ever since. But over the last week, Bitcoin has moved closer to $10,000, cracking $9,000 in mid-morning trading on Tuesday. What's happening with this crazy coin now? The quick answer: big investors and tech upgrades.

"Bitcoin is trading upwards for a number of reasons," says Fran Strajnar, CEO of Brave New Coin, a data and research company focused on the blockchain and cryptographic assets market. Strajnar thinks the fundamentals of Bitcoin have improved. Recent improvements to its lightning network and outside forces from regulators are both bringing investors back. "The U.S. is stepping in to regulate security tokens instead of commodity assets (utility) and we are seeing major value investors stepping into buy as a result," he says. Security tokens are cryptocurrencies issued by startups similar to shares, while utility tokens are like coupons used for a specific service the issuer offers. Both are tradable on an exchange.

"As the Soros' and the Rockefellers' of the world move into this ecosystem, this asset class is legitimized and trending in an extremely positive direction," Stajnar says, adding that the odds of a Bitcoin ETF getting approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission have improved.

George Soros' $26 billion wealth management firm is planning to trade digital assets. Adam Fisher, who oversees macro investing at New York-based Soros Fund Management, told Bloomberg this month the fund is approved to trade in crypto.

Venrock, a venture capital firm associated with the Rockefeller family's personal wealth fund, is also getting in on the act. They partnered with CoinFund, a crypto assets hedge fund run by Alex Felix in New York. They are investing in startups that also issue their own coins, CoinFund said on April 6.

"Word is getting out that traditional financial industry players are preparing to enter the crypto trading markets soon," says Eiland Glover, CEO of Kowala, a blockchain platform with its own cryptocurrency.

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Bitcoin Up 10% In 7 Days

The last week has been a good one for Bitcoin, with the price rising more than 10% according to CoinMarketCap data. Since the beginning of the month Bitcoin is up some 27%.

Following last week's strong gains Bitcoin has been hovering under the $9,000 mark but has recently been under pressure due to tax-related selling ahead of the U.S. tax deadline last week.

The threat of increased regulation is still a dark cloud hanging over Bitcoin sentiment, however, with many fearful the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is about to crack down on initial coin offering (ICO) issuers.

In March the trustee overseeing the bankruptcy of the defunct Mt. Gox cryptocurrency exchange denied being behind the 2018 sell off after it emerged he had sold $400 million of Mt. Gox's Bitcoin since last September.

Meanwhile, one of the world's biggest bitcoin exchanges, Coinbase, struck a deal allowing it to open a bank account with Britain’s Barclays.

Despite similar moves to make Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency trading more legitimate there have been as many set backs as advances.

Regulators around the world — many in Asia where cypto trading has exploded in recent years — have shut down exchanges and cryptocurrency services due to fears they are being used by criminals to launder money.

In February British banks Lloyds and Virgin Money said they would ban credit card customers from buying cryptocurrencies.

However, Hileman expects the biggest regulatory hurdle this year for Bitcoin is still to come.

"The regulatory shoe that everyone is waiting to see drop is definitive guidance from the SEC on whether a significant number of crypto tokens are securities and have been sold through illegal ICOs," Hileman said. "It has been rumoured that this guidance is coming soon. It is unclear which way the SEC will rule, and there is a real risk that the crypto market sells-off if an adverse ruling is delivered.”

The Bitcoin price surged above $19,000 in December last year, a gain of 2,000% on its December 2016 price but has since lost roughly two-thirds of its value given worries about regulatory crackdowns.

"Over the past few months, Bitcoin has lost nearly three quarters of it's value and finally reached a level more in line with it's long-term trend. Now traders are seeing a lot of value across the board and starting to get back in. The market may have slumped this year, but crypto technologies have quietly continued to improve in the background. Bitcoin Cash (the popular Bitcoin alternative) has already more than doubled in price this month," said Glen Goodman, Bitcoin analyst and author of forthcoming book The Crypto Trader.

Goodman added:

I think it's still a bit early to declare the dawn of a new bull market, but we're seeing more optimism in the crypto community than we've seen in months.

Credits:  Billy Bambrough

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Bitcoin Continues Upward Momentum After Tax Day

Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Head of Research, postulated that Bitcoin would be under pressure due to tax loss selling. He calculated that for every $1 in U.S. dollar selling it could impact the market value (think market cap, not price of Bitcoin) by $20 to $25. Bitcoin’s market cap was about $135 billion towards the end of March, per coinmarketcap.com and during the first two weeks in April it fell to around $115 billion, down 15%. Per Lee’s calculation it would only take $1 billion of U.S. based Bitcoin selling to account for the $20 billion downdraft.

However, Credit Karma had seen fewer than 100 people report cryptocurrency gains out of 250,000 filers per CNBC as of Friday, April 13. It may be that Bitcoin investors are using other services, but if Turbo Tax, H&R Block and tax preparers saw similar low volumes of cryptocurrency reporting, the two week weakness leading up to April 17 in Bitcoin’s price and last week’s rebound could be due to other forces.

Or Bitcoin’s slide could have been a buyer’s strike . They may have been thinking there would be selling to pay a tax bill, so they stayed away until April 17. If any of the downward pressure was due to actual or perceived tax loss selling, that is now past.

Bitcoin may have found a bottom

From its peak of $20,000 on December 17 last year, Bitcoin has pretty much been in a downtrend except for a few short-term recoveries. It hit a low of $6,400 on February 6 and rebounded to $11,700 on February 20 and $11,500 on March 5, but has not been able to hold onto the gains.

Starting on Monday, April 9, to Thursday, April 12, Bitcoin traded between $6,700 and $6,950 and took a slight dip to $6,800 on that Thursday. As can be seen in the chart below, it then spiked almost $1,000 to $7,800 the same day, paused until April 17 and started an upward trend to almost $9,000 on Saturday.

Bitcoin to hit $25,000 by the end of the year

Lee believes Bitcoin has turned the corner and should hit $20,000 by the middle of the year and $25,000 by December 31 . His chart includes when Mt. Gox’s trustee started selling Bitcoins to pay back Bitcoin owners and creditors due to it being hacked in February 2014 when 850,000 Bitcoins were stolen, and the SEC starting cryptocurrency and platform probes. I’m sure Lee isn’t expecting Bitcoin to move in a straight line higher, but if incremental selling pressure has eased, it should lead to a higher price. Credits:  Chuck Jones

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Bitcoin to Have Its First Back-to-Back Weekly Gain This Year

Spring’s chorus of bullish predictions for Bitcoin appears to be having some corroboration from recent markets, as Bloomberg reports on Bitcoin’s 4 percent gain today, April 20, putting the coin on track for its first back-to-back week of gains this year.

Bloomberg notes the recent upswing has brought BTC’s gains over the two-week period to almost 29 percent, with an upward trend for other major altcoins as well: Ripple up as much as 19 percent, Ethereum up 7.5 percent and Litecoin, 4 percent.

As an indication of market mood, buy/sell signals for Bitcoin are now showing 90 percent of traders buying Bitcoin, and only ten percent selling, for the first time since March 2017.

To quote Bloomberg, this mini-recovery somewhat “eases the pain” of BTC’s almost 50 percent loss in the first quarter of 2018, that followed hard upon late 2017’s $20, 000 high water mark.

Now that U.S. tax day (April 17) is over, some are seeing the markets’ mini rally as a vindication of their view that recent momentum to sell off crypto before federal income tax returns were due was causing much of 2018’s price misery.

April has also seen several traditional Wall Street players edge into the crypto space, suggesting that anticipation of more institutional money and talent is positively affecting recent markets, and that significant institutional investment capital could flow into the crypto market as it matures.

Yesterday Dan Morehead, CEO of Blockchain-focused hedge fund Pantera Capital, remarked that even the SEC busting high-profile ICO scams such as as that backed by Floyd Mayweatherresulted in markets going up, not down, suggesting that “we’ve seen the brunt of the market’s negative reaction” to regulation.

Bloomberg’s insights echo those of more predictably bullish Bitcoin analysts such as Tom Lee, who most recently forecast that Bitcoin is likely to hit $25,000 by the year’s end, and venture capitalist and Bitcoin bull Tim Draper’s who said last week: “I’m thinking $250,000 by 2022.”

Cointelegraph recently published an analysis of Bitcoin price predictions — running the gamut from $100 to $100,000 — from major investors and economists. Credits:  Marie Huillet