fireside chat | 001 | AI
Sunday, Mar 1
Just watched an interview with Dario Amodei (from 5 days ago) where he says he does believe AI, at some point, will be conscious. I have nothing to say about that now, but it made me realize that there needs to be a film about the founder of an AI company, showing them going home to a dark room and talking to the chatbot, (which of course kisses their ass as its creator) and over time the founder descends into their own very specific version of psychosis as a god, or daddy, of artificial intelligence. Jesuuuuus Christ.
Anyway, let’s discuss. They focused on coding capabilities first, so that AI could write better code to create better AI, and then that better AI writes better code, and then that better code creates better AI, so on. We're fully in that cycle now. Exponential growth.
“The length of tasks (measured by how long they take human professionals) that generalist frontier model agents can complete autonomously with 50% reliability has been doubling approximately every 7 months for the last 6 years.” (METR) Turning 2 apples into 4 apples is cute and all, until you're doubling big ass numbers. Gotdamn, I force fed that one sorry, but just incase you weren't getting the picture yet.
Alright. Now, this one folks may not buy until you just watch the shit for yourself. I’m gonna be real, based on all of the interviews I've watched over the last few months, I've essentially gathered that they know they don't know what the hell AI is going to do to the world long-term, or what the implications truly are. But for better or worse, it must be unleashed. On one end, in my opinion, the allure of being God is probably too undeniable for them. And of course they are racing, fast, for self and country, which is making so much of this reckless. But they can't stop, because China can't get to AGI first.
Beyond that, they are thinking so so so far beyond us, and beyond now. They are, I think, more aware that what they are creating is going to change the course of humanity, period, for the rest of time. To the extent that a fuck ton of risk feels like... well, not even a question. Even if it means our demise, because it could also mean something else entirely, and the only way to find out is to go forward, and specifically by their own hands. In their mind, that would be an insane amount of personal power and an almost unfathomable “purpose.” It’s worth considering this so you can realize how different of a frame of mind these folks are in.
Next. I find it absolutely insane that the ability to create video and photo indistinguishable from reality, both past and present (I’ve seen some really convincing fake historical photos with the look of early cameras) has been deployed unto society without a single government campaign, speech, or anything telling people that we literally live in a new world now. As if misinformation wasn't already our current downfall, or anything. Lmaooooo.. yo.
Current things I’m thinking about: I wonder how daily communication with AI will change the way people communicate with each other, re: expectations, patience, and many other things.
And re: people who will grow up never knowing a world without AI / what will happen to our concept of consciousness when everything around us "seems" to have it?
