LMAP

Science, Politics, Software, and other stuff

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Frozen canal

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Twitter migration

Not migrating, just revitalising my old Tumblr account. Not many academics are here, are they?

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The winner is... people

Trump looses the election, and Biden wins. Boris Johnson was not expecting this, as he had prepared a speech for what did not materialise. Dominic Cummings is heading out. It appears that amongst Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings and others, something failed miserably.

Data analytics, data mining and strategic communication with the intent to influence people failed.

This is what was used by Cambridge Analytica to influence the outcome of elections. CA acts were exposed in documentaries and these shocked people.

“I voted for X because I was told Y. But later I found out that Y was a lie and I was manipulated. It took me a while to believe it but later I settled for the truth.. From now on, I will be more careful about the things I watch that are shared or suggested through the internet. I will verify before I believe. I will never be manipulated again! “

People are fighting back and restoring what they had lost, independent mind and judgement.

People are now winning.

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Is the UK planning to default its debt?

Uk’s debt is quite high (over 100% ?), nevertheless UK still retains its credit rating as AA2. With the pandemic + recession + Brexit + Brexit preparations, the debt will increase and the credit rating will reduce. Many students, who will soon grow to adulthood, will not be able to repay their credit. Many cars bought on leasehold will not be paid as people loose their jobs.

A few years ago we have seen how Greece, Italy and Portugal went into trouble when their national debts was high, and with the help of the EU, and austerities, their economies were saved from collapse.

Unfortunately, the UK will not have that luxury. With UK outside the EU, it will not be able to secure help to its slowly crippling economy, however it gives more freedom to default its debt.

A question for the superforecasters. What is the probability that UK will default its debt in the next 10 years?

This is a strategy that was certainly picked up by UK government aides. While nobody is aware of this idea, LET’S SPEND.

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Brexit agreement? Trade agreement? There is no point.

With UK government recent decision to break the Withdrawal Agreement, EU leaders are now wondering: If we are going to make an agreement with these people, it is likely that they will not respect it.

That’s mistrust.

UK has completely lost it, and now reached the bottom.

UK can start forgetting about making any trade agreement with any country in the world. It is going to be seriously difficult to convince anybody to trust them.

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Dom Cummings destroying Britain

How political advisor Dominic Cummings is destroying UK

• Lies, deceit, threats. • He is very influential. • He is very intelligent (in an evil way) • Through the Battle of Brexit he is driving politics to non-decent practices. Politicians follow, people follow. • Using superforecasting as a political weapon. • Using big-data as a weapon. • No respect for the rule of law. He once famously said "Rules are meant to be broken". • His techniques and tactics work. The lies and populism tactics convince people enough to make them stubborn enough to reject the truth. By the time opposition parties present the truth and reality it is already too late. • Psychology plays a role here. Once people make a (unwise) decision based in untruths it is very difficult to change their mind of the decisions they made. People's mind have a lot of inertia. Only a few people are open minded enough to change their opinions. • Britain's values are being gradually eroded • What is happening now is very analogous to what happened with the rise of Nazi ideology, and other evil dictatorships, and wars and human tragedy occurrences such as the holocaust, that have occurred in the past

With the Conservative party having the majority in party, Boris Johnson the leader, and Cummings as the strategic advisor this is what it may happen next, similarly to the rise of Napoleon and Hitler. • Gradual increased control of security forces (police and army) or the creation of a new force. This could emerge with the pretext of fighting terrorism or other incidents that have occurred. Additionally, it would be said that the current police force is 'not fit for purpose'. In this way population will be easily convinced (and will support) as they will understand the 'necessity'. The reality is that the police have  good a enough structure to tackle these problems, and the only reason they may be inefficient is lack of funding and poor management. The rise of a new more powerful of security forces is very similar to what happened with the rise of SS in Nazi Germany, Stasi in Eastern Germany and special army forces with Napoleon and Saddam Houssein. • Change of constitution in order to gain more control of the people who approve laws. In UK the bills go through the House of Lords. In republics they go through the president. This check system is in place to make sure the bills follow the constitution and are legally acceptable. By having more control of the house of Lords, the parliament will have more freedom to pass laws. This could be a very bad thing for minorities and the laws passed may directly affect them. Also, laws that are immoral, unethical, or that are passed based on false evidence, can be established, changing the legal system permanently. (Give historical examples of evil bad laws).  Recently, there was a move which was to take control of the House of Lords by flooding it with new Lords(brexit backers)  that will approve their new agenda by not block new laws.. • These measures above will lead to gradual silencing, repercussion. Ultimately it will lead to the creation of concentration camps. Following Chinese example in treating Uighurs, these will be called re-education centres, which effectively work like prisons. • Anti-Brexiters (remainers) will be an easy target. Anything that will happen that will slow down or block the progression of Brexit will be blamed on others. This is a tactic, that unfortunately works, and is often used to give make Brexiters more angry and pushy to the point of violence. https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/09/dominic-cummings-machiavel-downing-street https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/07/opinion/sunday/dominic-cummings-brexit.html

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UK’s new weapon - superforecasting

In UK politics, an incredible intention forwarded by the UK government that they want to break the Withdrawal Agreement, even if it violates international law. What is also incredible is that MP admit it. Why?

The UK governement, now effectively driven by Dom Cummings, is using a new weapon. SUPER FORECASTING.

While everybody discusses laws, and politics, UK government is using super-forecasting as a way to be ahead in political battles. Superforecasting is a way to determine the outcomes of these decisions. All possible options are considered and outcomes are (super)-forecasted. It is like playing chess and already know all possible moves after several turns. Currently politics is done with the knowledge of one or two moves in advanced, but with superforecasting we can go beyond that. It becomes a hybrid chess and poker game.

Now the question are. What did the UK superforecasting department predicted which led to the decision of dropping the Withdrawal Agreement, risking international condemnation, accusations, and legal punishments?

What else is the UK government is predicting?

What diagrams are in those whiteboards of whitehall.

What is UK end-game? Is Brexit now an obsession, and simply leading to desperation because it simply does not work ? Did they simply exclude cancelling Brexit as a potential better option ? What are the long term and moral consequences?

Are other countries going to up their game and start super-forcasting?

What happens when two decisions based in superforecasting clash? Do they nullify?

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Silent carriers

As China is trying to recover from the Coronavirus lockdown, they are also learning more about the asymptomatic cases, people who carry the virus but show no symptoms. These people can still transmit the virus.

This observation is consistent with my previous post. There a a number o people that get ‘infected’, but the disease does not get pass the nose or throat. These people develop also defenses gradually with time, but as the infection is limited to areas on the surface of tissue or skin, where antibodies may not reach, eliminating the virus may take a long time, perhaps up to years. It is known that bats csn live with the coronavirus, being hosts. It is mot clear how this works. There is suggestion that the original source of the virus, that linked bats to humans, perhaps the infamous pangolin, are a long-term source of the virus themselves. Can humans become a long time host of COVID19 ? Maybe humanity will have to learn to live with Coronavirus for the rest of eternity.

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Coronavirus COVID-19. Symptoms?

The National Health Service in UK identifies the symptoms of coronavirus as: dry cough, high temperature. Many people are also reporting loss of taste and smell. Despite the BBC calling that anedoctal, it appears that it is quite prevalent. https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/symptoms-and-what-to-do/ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51048366 It is however not clear what other symptoms it may have. Some information websites and reports from people speak about headache, fatigue, sore articulations, and running nose. Perhaps many people have experienced these, but not dry cough.

Recently my family caught a ‘cold’ that led to running nose and unusual high fever. But now we are wondering, was it the ‘Coronavirus’ and not the cold? During that period, was I spreading the virus, thinking it was common cold but was the other?

But, can the COVID-19 cause running nose? And why some people get mild symptoms?

Many people are probably asking the same. These are good people that do not want to spread diseases. Knowing exactly what they have would help decide whether to self-isolate or not. Perhaps by knowing this it would help stop the spreading of the disease further.

Going back to the possibility that the COVID-19 disease may cause running nose, but not cough. Recent research on the structure of the virus, in particular with the ‘spike’ protein that is surrounding the spherical core, provides further clues. The spike is very strong, perhaps it can be compared to a toy called “Bunchems!”, balls surrounded with hooks, similar to velcro. These spikes attach to a specific protein called ACE-2 receptor.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/new-study-sheds-light-on-coronavirus-infection-mechanism “This improved binding might allow the virus to infect the nose and the throat more efficiently, where the levels of ACE-2 are thought to be lower.”

Despite the density of “attachment points” of the virus on the nose and throat being lower, these parts of the respiratory system are also more exposed to the virus through breathing. The virus itself has to travel from the atmosphere to the lungs, in order to cause the infection. Moisture, snot and hair in the nose, filters the dust and probably most of this virus.

The proposed mechanism of infection is as follows.

The virus particles enter through the nose and get trapped.

There, they infect the nose, and perhaps a bit further down, the throat, but can’t reach the lunges.

The infection grows, the virus multiplies and grows.

Breading gradually pushes the virus down towards the lunges.

If the virus remains long enough on the nose or throat without managing to reach the lunges, the individual’s immune system will gradually fight back against the virus, by creating antibodies.

The growth of the infection in the nose or throat can take several days as with cold disease or flu. The immune system will only respond if it detects the infection, and takes a while to fight back. This can explain the incubation period.

The infection on the nose leads to running nose. On the throat leads to cough.

Cough can lead to higher chance for the virus to reach deep in the lunges, because people breed in more strongly before coughing, to catch some breath. Once deep in the lunges it becomes extremely dangerous and can lead to serious complications, pneumonia, and eventually death.

With this idea in mind, one can think about ways to prevent serious complications in case of catching the disease. It is extremely difficult to avoid catching the infection and it should nevertheless be avoided. But in case, the trick is to keep it in the upper respiratory tract, for as long as possible, until the body has developed considerable immunity, before reaching the lungs. So in addition to recommendation of keeping distance and washing hands.

Don’t breath in through the mouth. The nose is a much better filter.

Keep the nose, moisten. Don’t clear all the snot inside it or too much. The sticky properties of it may help catching the virus. In order for the virus to jump to another place it normally needs to ‘fly’ with a water droplet. It is very hard for the virus to come out dry from a moisted surface, but if the surface dries, it may fly like dust.

When coughing, avoid deep breaths as much as possible to reduce the chance the virus particles flies towards the lungs.

Also, the suggested model here also indicates that there may be a incredible amount of people who have already caught the virus, and had mild symptoms. So the statistics of number of cases may be extremely underestimated, and so would be the mortality rate. As such, we may ask ourselves as to whether there was any point of a serious lockdown, but instead we could have tried to invest more in understanding the ‘enemy’ better.

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Young rebelling against lockdown response to the COVID-19 virus

This is a summary from a conversation with a youngster about his thoughts on the UK government response to the COVID-19 epidemic.

**** We are young and healthy and we feel that our future is in jeopardy.

The government reaction to the COVID-19 virus spread will destroy our future.

Schools are closed. We were now robbed off the education that we should reveive. We are also very sceptical about the reason for the school closure: Children transmit diseases, yes. However there is very little data showing that the rate of transmission of this virus through children is significant. It is known that the rate of transmission of diseases within school is normally high, because children spend time closely in classrooms and play together. But with the COVID-19, although it can make children ill, it is statistically known that they recover well without complications. As such, the transmission rate amongst them is expected to be minimal and then contributing zero to the overall virus transmission rate. Statistics in the daily number of reported cases for several countries support this theory, by showing little reduction (or no reduction) in daily number of cases after school closures. We therefore feel like we are taking a significant part of the blame for the humanitarian crisis caused by the high transmission of the virus, despite the lack of scientific evidence supporting it. It's not our fault.

Many scientists have compared this pandemic with the Spanish influenza in 1918. However they fail to highlight that the Spanish influenza affected mostly young people, and many older people resisted it, probably because they had survived a previous pandemic that was not registered in the history books. This new pandemic affects a completely different generation, adding further to the idea that the school spreading argument may be completely invalid.

Governments are borrowing of large amount of cash to fund the lockdown. This is a loan? Who is going to pay it back? How long will it take to pay it back? We are, of course. And what choice do we have? Isn't it enough that university fees are already exorbitant? A question to the older generation: Is this the way you care for you children? By exploiting them, 'stealing' from them so that can keep going to the bingo? Maybe you don't realise, or prefer not to realise, and suppress that thought, for convenience and peace of mind. The economic impact is going to be unprecedent, and nobody else will feel it more than us.

Lockdown is extremely depressing. We want freedom of movement, even if that means we have to deal with nature force. We accept that there are diseases out there. We assume that at the time we were born we have signed a contract with nature that we will live with nature and learn how to deal with it, just like any other living specie in the world. But we are now more prisoners than cats that roam and fishes in a fish tank.

A destroyed economy leads to no employment, no future. It will be hard to keep a good level of mental sanity under these circunstances.

We are loving and caring people. Yes, truly, we really are. We look after our parents. But, as a rule of thumb, we will not help you if you cannot help yourself first. Some of us, younger generation, are more tolerant, and we will live through this indebtment as a part of life. But also we will read history and realise that this 'passing the buck' culture that has been worsening, is unfair. We will  get angry and rebel.

In fact you will probably recognise that the things we are protesting about, follow similar arguments to what the 'extinction rebellion' movement is based upon. We don't like the idea that a destroyed world will be left for us to sort out in the future. Stop passing the problem to your siblings and try the reverse. A sustainable environment can only work in the opposite way, where parents ensure better living conditions to their siblings.

****

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Some pictures of COVID-19 virus

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/what-is-covid-19 Photograph: Niaid Rml/NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH HANDOUT/EPA 

Transmission electron microscope image shows SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, isolated from a patient in the U.S. Virus particles are emerging from the surface of cells cultured in the lab. The spikes on the outer edge of the virus particles give coronaviruses their name, crown-like.NIAID-RML  https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/novel-coronavirus-structure-reveals-targets-vaccines-treatments

Obtained by cryo-electron microscopy Atomic-level structure of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. The receptor binding domain, the part of the spike that binds to the host cell, is colored green. UT Austin, McLellan Lab

Several pictures from this link https://www.thenational.ae/world/the-americas/what-does-the-coronavirus-look-like-covid-19-under-the-microscope-1.986845#1

A 3D print model of the virus with the protein spikes surrounding the virus.

[politicalsci]

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European elections in UK, Brexit party wins, but what?

As of today, the Brexit party won the majority of votes in UK for the European Elections.

Interestingly, other than non-conservative and non-labour parties made gains.

How to interpret the Brexit party win? The most obvious answer is that people were voting for the direction the country should go. But the truth is that people voted for their MEP to represent them in the European Parliament in Strasbourg. Participation and voting in this parliament  effectively counts as supporting the european institutions. A Brexit party MEP going to the EU parliment is like It is like a guy who is not religious and going to the middle of a mass and shout against religion. MEP’s cannot dictate in the decision to leave or remain in the EU.  Everybody will be wondering what the MEP’s will do in the European Parliment. Maybe collecting salaries and pensions?

The Brexit party won without a manifesto, and they campaigned for something they cannot do. As such, anybody who voted for them must be really confused. 

The world will be looking at the results of the election in the UK and laugh at the contradiction.

As with the rest of Europe, far-right parties have made their gains but interestingly they did not campaign against the EU, probably because they have learnt that the EU can in fact be used in favour or their policies. Maybe you are against the the rules and consequently you are against the institutions, but at the end of the day you realise that is not a problem with the institutions but just the rules.

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UK politics in turmoil

Yet another deal rejected in UK parliament regarding the exit of UK from the European Union. This was expected because each leaver politician has its own stubborn vision of how UK should leave the EU, and what access to the EU market it should have. There are those that want  a soft Brexit, those who want a hard brexit, those who want a anarchic brexit, and so forth. And, of course there are those that don’t support the exit at al. This fundamental division in the parliament is enough to predict failure of any attempt to get a deal approved in parliament.

But, is leaving the EU really that bad that is worth going through this chaos?

EU has problems, yes indeed. These problems should be resolved, and in order to resolve, running away is not a solution.

So what is going to happen?

- The parliament has rejected a ‘no deal’ scenario, which Theresa May was forced to comply - The UK negotiators have spend hours in meetings with EU negotiators to arrive at an agreement. - This negotiated exit agreement, and any others modifications will not go through the parliament, due to the parliament division. - Trying to set the agreement with the EU without parliament approval is anti-democratic and has been rejected by the lords. - Some people have suggested Theresa should stand down, but who will replace her? She is doing her job better than anyone could, an impossible job. Let her stay.

A new referendum? This is the best idea to finallly settle the decision. Some people also changed their mind in these last 3 years. It should be multiple choice with several ‘leave’ options (which can be agreed with the EU) and one more option to stay in the EU. 

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A new Brexit referendum? It should have more than two choices.

Looking back at the original Brexit referendum, it had two options, remain in the EU or leave.

And looking at the situation now, complete utterly political chaos. Why?

Despite the intense campaign on both sides there were different views of the leave campaign. That UK should leave with not trade deal, or that UK should be still part of the trade union, Norway model, WTO rules, immigration control only, whatever. The “LEAVE” option in the ballot paper did encompass all this, and so that is why the LEAVE option won. Different people had different reasons to vote for leave. However, and this is very significant, the LEAVE modalities are INCOMPATIBLE. That is the reason why, nowadays politicians cannot agree in the leave agreement. Only a minority can, and these are the one that support only one of the Leave ‘options’.

As the new deal will be expected to be rejected in UK parliament. The most likely reasonable choice is to have a second referendum, as this will respect the democratic principles of the UK nation, and will help settle the conflict.

But, VERY IMPORTANT, the options in this referendum should not be just ‘Remain’ or ‘Leave’. The ‘leave’ has to be split into the different leave modes, because, as explained earlier they are incompatible, also demonstrated by the deep political divisions that have formed even within parties. People when they voted to leave the EU they had many distinct reasons or different intentions.

So here is my proposed ballot paper for the New People’s vote about leaving or remaining in the EU. The options are based on information from this website:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/options-uk-trading-relationship-eu

It is important to have several options for the leave, so that people will not be confused and that politics that follow will be more straightforward.

Why there are no more options for the Remain. Simply, because of the way the EU operates. There is a EU parliment and council. MEP’s of different countries are voted democratically in their respective countries.

Unfortunately, UK MEP’s have always been members of anti-EU parties, which in essence of attitude made very difficult for the UK to push for changes in the EU parliment or council. As such there is no need for several Remain options, since the politics is effectively decided in MEP elections by the democratic vote of representatives.

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Consequences of closing borders for migration

One of the major reasons as to why many people in UK voted to leave the EU was to stop migration. Why people think migration can be bad? Some of the common explanations are: - Islamohpobia - ‘Stealing jobs’ - Migrants abuse system, and health services.

I just came across a problem that Hungary is now facing. Orban went to power with strong anti-migration rethoric and pushes ahead with these policies. One notatable example is its ‘war’ against Soros investments in education and promoting migration. As Hungary, part of the EU receives funding to improve economy, younger people take better paid jobs and the low-paid jobs are not attractive anymore, nevertheless essential. In a typically growing economy, these low-paid jobs are filled by migrant labour. As Hungary is against migration and no national wants to take these needed jobs, the government faces a new problem in filling these well needed vacancies. One proposed solution, the Government introduces a new law that will allow employers push the number of hours in existing employed in low-paid jobs. In practise these are going to fill these vacancies, as if one person now can do the work of two. This is now, unsurprisingly, called the slave-law.

The same will happen to UK... and US, and Italy.

This solution proposed by Hungarian government will probably work temporarily, but there is a great risk that it will crash into rebellion.

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UK prime minister flying back and forth to meet European leaders

Indeed. This will be the reality of UK when it leaves the European Union. MP’s and the prime minister will be travelling to and back from Europe trying to make deals.

When UK leaves the EU, it will loose representation in the EU parliament in Strasbourg, and in the European Council. The fact is that the UK economy and trade is very well knotted with Europe. As a result, any decision that EU makes in laws and trade will affect UK. This can often affect in a negative way. UK MPs will have no choice but to attempt to reverse or support new bills, and the only way to achieve this (without being represented in the council/parliament) is to lobby MPs and prime ministers of other countries. It will be funny and serious, and embarrassingly ridiculous.