Master Theory and Predictions:
Noel is A.D. Heās Maryās other child and Charlotteās little brother.
-Back when we first learned that Mary left Radley 23 years ago I mentioned that if she had a kid around her time of leaving Radley that child would be the same age as the liars. Noel is the same age as the liars. The fact that we now know the person is the same age as the liars via Maryās files helps us rule out the āolderā crowd (Melissa, Wren, Bethany, Toby, etc)
-Iāve tried to for a while to make logical sense of who would kill Charlotte and I think it was Melissa. For one it appeared that her suitcase handle was the murder weapon, and in true PLL fashion the person who looked most guilty just fell off the liars radar. Melissa and Charlotte knew each other. Weāve heard of several instances of them crossing paths. Jason saw Melissa and Charlotte talking āthat nightā. Charlotte claims Melissa took the picture of her, Ali, & Wilden in Cape May. Wren claims Melissa is the one who talked him into letting Charlotte visit Mona. Melissa claims that Charlotte called Wren and it resulted in their break up. Now Melissa is not the most trustworthy person by any means. But we were literally given her with the murder weapon and motive and people write it off like itās just another red herring. Lets not forget how āCeCeā was a red herring for a long time. So what if Charlotte did call Wren and tell him about Melissa and her connection to what happened with Bethany. It may have been a last straw for Wren, who thought he left the Rosewood drama behind when they moved to London.
Charlotte never went back to Radley
-I donāt think Charlotte ever returned to Radley after her transition. I do believe after Jessica saw her hit Alison that she contacted Wilden, however I donāt think Wilden took her back to Radley. Hereās why. For one, if Charlotte was still a current patient why would she need a pass to visit Mona, or for that matter, why would she have needed Melissa and Wrenās help to begin with? I think here we need to pay attention to the details. Mona saved that pass for a reason, because it was important because she knew Charlotte was up to something when she visited. Mona claims she never knew who stole the game from her but I think thatās a lie. Mona knew Wren let Charlotte visit her, she knew Charlotte was stealing the game. Itās why she and Wren had that whole āI know where your loyalties areā conversation.
Noel sent Charlotte to Mona
- I believe Noel knew Mona was A before she was revealed. I think he had been in contact with Ali ever since she disappeared. I think Ali told Noel that Mona helped her escape that night, so Noel made it his mission to get close to Mona. Thatās when he learned she was A. And offered his services. He was even right there with her when she did āAā things⦠like the whole Hanna/Lucas lake thing. She and Noel were both in the water when it happened. Of course Noel didnāt tell Ali who her āAā was because that information was worth something and we know Noel likeās his āinsuranceā The Mona/Noel break up was fishy to begin with. No real reason why they split. And literally two seconds later heās cozied up to Jenna. I think Noel had his list of people who were against Ali and he was eager to find out what each person knew⦠because he has secrets. And Ali knew his secret, just not to its full extent. So when Noel got the chance, he told Charlotte all about Mona being A to Alison and the liars and convinced her to steal the A game from Mona (who he had been working with) So with a little help from Melissa and Wren, Charlotte got an all access pass to Mona and got the information she needed to steal the game. Whatever Mona didnāt tell her about the girls. Noel did.
-I believe Noelās secret is that he knew he was adopted. Ā He was adopted by a wonderful family with siblings and all that good stuff. I believe this is the secret Ali knew. But she didnāt know the full extent of it. She knew he was adopted but did not know who his birth parents were. I think Noel knew who his birth mother (Mary) was. I think he knew that she was Alisonās long lost aunt. And that would explain why Noel never made a move on Ali. There was always flirtation but even in flashbacks Noel was never āwithā Ali. in the beach flashback he was with Prudence. In the party flashback he was with an unnamed girl and Ali somehow got them broken up to give Aria a chance. In fact even when Ali was asked about Noel she said she wanted someone more seasoned, so despite the flirtation weāve seen between the two there are no real signs that he and Ali were ever more than just friends.
-Think back to the Kahn Games at the cabin. Eric knew āCeCeā but we know Charlotte never actually attended Rosewood High. So how would they know each other? Maybe Noelās parents were the kind of parents who literally put their children first. Thatās why they told Noel he was adopted and who his mother was. I think once Noel figured out that Charlotte was also Maryās child he decided to form a bond and his family was more than willing to comply because they wanted what was best for Noel. This is how Eric and CeCe knew each other. This is why he could be flirty with her at the party because technically he and Noel arenāt related so heās also not related to Charlotte. In the books Noel has a very caring and understanding family, whoās to say they arenāt the same in the show. Noelās family has plenty of money to search for Noelās birth parents and family so itās completely plausible that he had all this information about his bio family on his own.
-So weāre supposed to believe that Jenna was behind the whole Charlotte/Rollins thing. And I believe she was a part of it all. I think she knew Rollins prior but I donāt think Charlotte asked her to look into her birth mom, I think Charlotte already knew who that was from Noel and from the Radley files. We were led on for so long that Charlotte had attacked Jenna and tried to burn her alive/drown her etc. and we were never given a motive for Charlotte doing this. Well what if Charlotte was pissed that Jenna wasnāt loyal to Noel, so when Jenna was with Garrett after she and Noel started dating⦠boom fire. When Jenna was with Shana instead of Noel⦠boom drowning.
But things werenāt always bad between them.
-Charlotte was behind the lodge fire. She is the person who contacted Ali to meet there. And Mona. I believe she was going to try to convince Mona that Ali was indeed Red Coat. But the liars showed up. And Charlotte had planned for that. She wasnāt going to be at the lodge fire at all. She convinced Melissa that Alison would be there and that Alison was behind what the liars were currently going through, so Melissa sent Jenna & Shana there to find Ali. Shana wanted Ali dead for hurting Jenna, hence her reason to start the lodge fire. Sara was there on behalf of Charlotte to see what all went down. And ultimately Sara and Alison ended up saving the girls from the fire. Remember Charlotte didnāt want them dead. Meanwhile Charlotte and Melissa were meeting up with Wilden. I believe Melissa is the one who killed Wilden, not Charlotte, because Charlotte had let Melissa know that Wilden knew what went down āthat nightā so Melissa, in fear of being caught for Bethanyās murder killed Wilden. Ā Of course Charlotte took the blame for it. As did Mona. This is why Wren had that awful conversation with Mona when she admitted it was her. He knew it wasnāt and the plan all along had been to frame Ashley Marin for the murder since she not only had a past with Wilden but because there was also evidence that Ashley hit Wilden, therefore keeping Melissa off the suspect list⦠I believe Charlotte was blackmailing Wren with the evidence against Melissa so he would do what she needed when it came to Mona. Plus we canāt forget that Spencer asked Melissa flat out if she murdered Wilden and Melissa refused to answer. Usually if you are innocent you will say no I didnāt do that.
So basically, Noel is Charlotteās brother and out for revenge. He thinks the liars know who killed Charlotte and technically Spencer, Emily, and Caleb do have a huge clue because they know about Melissaās suitcase. Melissa killed Charlotte for ruining her relationship with Wren. Jenna and Sara are just side players in the bigger game. Same for Wren. Mona knew Charlotte stole the game but didnāt know who Charlotte was to either Alison or Noel.
Past Noel Theories that explain his shadiness even more can be found