What Are The Chances of a Clinton or Fiorina Presidency? Cross-cultural data provide insight on Fiorina's and Clinton's chances.
There are two American women seeking their partyâs nomination for President: Carly Fiorina (Republican) and Hillary Clinton (Democrat). Were one of them to be elected, they would join what is largely a fraternity of men. Excluding figurehead monarchs (queens), only about 1-in-10 of the worldâs heads of state are women. Of these 18 women, 11 were elected. Half are the first women to hold their nationâs highest political office. Itâs interesting to consider the Clinton and Fiorina candidacies in light of how women come to occupy these customarily male power positions.
Historically, one of the most common paths to executive government office is kinship. Many women heads of state were the daughters or wives of political figures. Citizens (and political party leaders) are often more comfortable with a woman head of state if they believe that she is a âpolitical surrogateâ (stand-in) for a husband or father (especially if that man was a political martyr, or a founder of democracy). Thatâs especially true in countries with traditional gender roles (for example, Corazon Aquino of, Benazir Bhutto, Indira Gandhi, and Violeta de Chamorro). There are aspects of political surrogacy in Hillary Clintonâs presidential run and Clinton likely benefits from the Clinton name and Billâs proximity. Fiorina, however, wonât benefit from the political career of a husband or father.
 The âinsider pathâ is another frequent path to womenâs executive political power. Some women heads of state demonstrated loyal party service and worked their way up through party hierarchies, but even these women usually come to power under unusual circumstances, such as a divided political party or party scandal (true of Margaret Thatcher, Golda Meir, and Angela Merkel, for example). In parliamentary systems where prime ministers are elected by parliament or granted the position based on the application of party rules, insider women have a better chance because they can bypass a potentially biased public. Like many women heads of state that were first accepted into the party elite as surrogates, but eventually became political insiders (like Bhutto, Gandhi, Aquino, and Bandaranaike), Hillary Clinton is now a political insider. Although she is an ardent supporter of the Republican Party, Carly Fiorinaâs insider credentials are weak but if the party believes they need a woman on the ticket, or if the party is divided and sheâs a compromise candidate, she has a chance, though more likely as a VP.
 When people are fed up with politicians, âoutsidersâ have more of a chance. Some women heads of state are more âoutsiderâ than âinsider.â They come to power as their countries recover from brutal dictatorships, corrupt governments, scandal, or a transition to democracy. Michelle Bachelet of Chile is a good example. Outsider women typically have a dash of insider and benefit from a combination of government service experience and a past history of activism in pro-democratic or anti-corruption movements. This increases peopleâs trust theyâll serve democratic ends rather than use their power for personal gain and political repression. They usually benefit from gender stereotypes that women are more ethical, less corrupt, less selfish, and less violent than men. Clinton and Fiorina are both disadvantaged in this regard since Americans currently mistrust insider politicians (hurts Clinton) and mistrust corporations and their influence over American politics (hurts Fiorina). Although in some ways Fiorina is a political outsider sheâs not the right kind. Meanwhile, Clintonâs stint as Secretary of State and the Benghazi scandal may prevent her from being seen as an ethical outsider. From this vantage point, Senator Elizabeth Warren may have been the best outsider woman candidate because the focus of her government service is consumer protections and regulation of the financial industry.
Things are changing. The unstated requirement that the president must have military command or combat experience has fallen away and many more women have law degrees. Women in formal politics are more accepted and less likely to be rejected for violating their traditional gender role. The number of women with the types of legislative and state executive experience that lead to the White House is slowly growing. Organizations like Emilyâs List provide support and funding for womenâs election to office. Major political parties are showing greater willingness to support women candidates. And, according to a recent PEW report, about 75% of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents say men and women are equally qualified for political leadership (though 22% of Republicans and 9% of Democrats say men make better leaders). But that same research found 38% of Americans believe a major reason there arenât more women in top elective office in the U.S. is that they're held to higher standards than men. More than a third (37%) say the nation is just not ready to elect female leaders.Â
References
Burn, S.M. (2010). Women Across Cultures: A Global Perspective (3rd edition). New York: McGraw-Hill.
Eagly, A. H., & Carli, L. L. (2007). Through the labyrinth: The truth about how women become leaders. Harvard Business Press.
Jalalzai, F. 2004. Women political leaders. Women and Politics, 26, 85-108.
Jalalzai, F. 2008. Women rule: Shattering the executive glass ceiling. Politics and Gender, 4, 205-231.
Jalalzai, F. (2013). Shattered, Cracked, Or Firmly Intact? Women and the Executive Glass Ceiling Worldwide. Oxford University Press, USA.
















