Unstructured Data Analytics show Deutsche Bankâs crisis-in-the-making started 12+ months ago
Communication in Focus (CIF) is an unstructured textual analytics cloud platform. One of CIFâs key features is its ability to analyze massive amounts of textual data, identify critical issues by context, and extract supporting facts driving trends. Since 2014, CIF has analyzed and monitored global news from major media channels.
While the weekâs headlines were dominated with Congressional hearings on Wells Fargoâs cross-selling scandal and the Presidential Debates, weâve turned to CIF to monitor and track the development of the Deutsche Bank crisis.
This post walks through a summary of our findings - insights driven by CIFâs unstructured data analytics as an alternative to traditional quantitative analysis which abounds in the blogosphere.
Where Structured Data analytics mostly deals with processing data from records and fields commonly found in systems of record, Unstructured Data analytics is about processing textual data using text analysis such as Natural Language Processing (NLP) in conjunction with Machine Learning models, contexts and semantic inferences.
3 million data articles strong and growing, CIF processes, analyzes, and stores analyses in real-time using unstructured data stores - our Data Galaxy. Using CIF, we created real-time data streams for any and all articles relating to Deutsche Bank. These streams have created several datasets, breaking down results on a monthly basis.
CIF processes the results for sentiment, identifying critical issues, and extracting supporting facts. CIF represents these critical issues using hashtags that are tagged by sentiment (positive, negative, common). These hashtags are then trended and spatially plotted on a quadrant graph. The quadrant graph - Sentiment Insights - is made up of 4 principal sectors:
- The Southeast (SE) quadrant represents extreme positive sentiments
- The Southwest (SW) quadrant represents extreme negative sentiments
- The Northwest (NW) quadrant represents common hashtags with extreme negative sentiment bias that are shared with extreme positive sentiment
- The Northeast (NE) quadrant represents common hashtags with extreme positive sentiment bias that are shared with extreme negative sentiment
CIF uses the quadrant metaphor to make unstructured insights approachable and actionable. Results are charted by month. Each hashtag (or node) contains supporting facts (reasons driving CIFâs assessment). Clicking through the hashtag will open a new window and provide users with a chronological index of supporting facts and source. Clicking on each supporting fact opens a sentiment snapshot - a detailed article-centric analysis.
Using public domain content, CIFâs data streams helped us to deconstruct the Deutsche Bank story with insights into the following:
With the German Government poised to help Deutsche Bank with this crisis, why is investor confidence diminishing?
When were the earliest tell-tale signs of this crisis first visible?
What are the causes leading to this crisis?
What are the side-effects of this crisis?
What should be expected in the next term?
We have included the following sentiment quadrant charts to depict the evolution of facts leading up to this crises. We have also included a small news excerpts in context to support the hash-tags in these quadrant charts.
#global, #cryan
 > Deutsche, hit by a string of scandals and fines, is currently the lowest-ranking globalinvestment bank when measured by its price to book ratio of around 0...
 > He was hired by Chris Yoshida, who joined Deutsche Bank in 2014 from Morgan Stanley as global head of rates sales...
 > (nytimesbusiness)Deutsche Bank to Shrink Investment Banking Unit in Russia ; LONDON Deutsche Bank said on Friday that it was scaling back its investment banking operations in Russia as the bank's new co-chief executive, John Cryan, looks to reshape its business...
 > The board has played an active role, replacing Jain this summer with John Cryan and announcing that Fitschen will step down as co-CEO next year...
 > Co-Chief Executive Officer John Cryan, 54, who replaced Anshu Jain in July, is pressing ahead with the bank's plan to bolster profitability by reducing expenses and cutting back businesses...
#cryan
 > New Chief Executive John Cryan, who took control of the bank in July with the promise to cut costs, is readying plans to cut roughly 23,000 jobs, or about one quarter of total staff, sources told Reuters last month
6 billion) quarterly loss is Deutsche Bank s largest in at least a decade ; Deutsche Bank AG said trading income rose 7 percent in the third quarter as co-Chief Executive Officer John Cryan's clean-up of the bank's books leads to the largest three-month loss in at least a decade...
 > At Deutsche Bank AG, co-CEO John Cryan said on Thursday he will shrink the workforce by about 26,000 people by 2018
Germany's biggest bank, Deutsche Bank announced an overhaul on Wednesday, saying it would sacrifice its 2015 and 2016 dividends as new Chief Executive John Cryan seeks to bolster the bank's capital and retain money to pay for sins of the past...
 > (business)Deutsche Bank plan leaves investors puzzled over growth, with workforce to shrink by 26,000 ; For investors, John Cryan's plan to revive profit at Deutsche Bank AG looks too much like the strategy that contributed to his predecessor's departure: thin on details...
 > John Cryan, Deutsche Bank AG's co-chief executive officer since July, said on Thursday the next two years will be tough as plans to shed workers and businesses and revamp technology hurt results...
 > In detailing the restructuring plan, Deutsche Bank 's new co-chief executive, John Cryan, was in effect bringing a failed experiment to a close...
#employees, #cryan
 > Cryan, who took over as co-CEO of Germany's biggest bank from Anshu Jain in July, elaborated on his philosophy for paying employees Monday -- even taking aim at his own compensation package -- just weeks after broadly warning that staff bonuses will have to reflect the cost of the firm's fines for past misconduct
 > To lift profitability, Co-Chief Executive Officer John Cryan said the company would pull out of businesses in 10 countries from Argentina to New Zealand and shrink headcount by about a quarter
 > In the words of John Cryan , DB's Co-Chief Executive Officer (from the conference call ):
#equity, #london, #russian
 > Deutsche Bank, which declined to comment on the size of the trades, said it is investigating certain equity trades in Moscow and London, adding the total volume of the transactions under review is "significant"...
 > The sale will help boost the German bank's common equity tier 1 capital ratio as of Sept...
 > The fraud office announced in November that it expected to bring conspiracy to defraud charges against 10 current and former employees of Barclays and Deutsche Bank when they make their first court appearance at Westminster Magistrates' Court in London in January...
> Deutsche Bank AG has identified as much as $4 billion in suspicious transactions related to its Russian operations, in addition to $6 billion in so-called mirror trades it is examining...
 > (business)More details: Deutsche Bank flags $10 billion of trades that may not have been vetted for money laundering ; Deutsche Bank AG has identified as much as $4 billion in suspicious transactions related to its Russian operations, in addition to $6 billion in so-called mirror trades it is examining, said several people with knowledge of the bank's review of the matter...
#china, #profit, #cryan
 > While Deutsche Bank AG sees a minor retreat in volatility, it says more turmoil may come from China and rising U...
 > Like other investment banks, Deutsche Bank struggled with near-zero interest rates, a slump in oil prices and investor caution due to worries about slowing growth in China, but analysts have said Deutsche's revenue performance appeared weaker than that of its U...
 > Insider trading case looks at Deutsche Bank emails: 'This looks like turning into a horror show' - Four men accused of insider trading split profits of almost 1 million ($1...
 > (business)Deutsche Bank drops by most in 5 months as concerns mount over revenue ; Deutsche Bank AG, which runs Europe's largest investment bank, slumped the most in five months in Frankfurt trading after saying the securities unit drove a decline in fourth-quarter revenue, casting doubt on the company's ability to meet profit targets...
 > Cryan is shrinking assets and cutting costs to boost capital levels and profitability to reverse a share slump that has made Deutsche Bank the worst-valued global bank...
 > Deutsche Bank's securitization business has faced additional pressures internally, including plans by Co-Chief Executive Officer John Cryan to cut severely the lender's most capital-intensive businesses...
 > In his place came John Cryan, a cerebral Englishman and, to some insiders, an unlikely choice to restore Deutsche Bank to its former glory...
#stocks, #credit
 > The cost of protecting Deutsche Bank's debt against default has more than doubled this year, while its stock trades at about one-third of the company's liquidation value...
 > Unfortunately, Deutsche Bank credit default swaps are now telling us that there is deep turmoil at the bank and that a complete implosion may be imminent...
#global
 > Deutsche Bank for example said last year that it would cut the number of clients that itsglobal markets and corporate and investment-banking units deal with in half...
#investor
 > The chief executive officers of Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse Group AG are squeezed between investors pushing them to boost profitability and employees demoralized by job cuts, lower pay and their bosses' blunt criticism
#dixon
 > A $541 million loss haunts Deutsche Bank and its former trader Troy Dixon ; Troy Dixon had hit the big time: he'd gone, as they say in his old neighborhood, from Hollis to Hollywood...
#debt
 > Investors said Deutsche Bank should have warned them in offering materials how it had taken on significant exposure to subprime markets through residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations...
#global, #debt
 > The bank suffered another massive blow after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) branded Deutsche Bank one of the riskiest banks globally...
 > Investors said Deutsche Bank should have warned them in offering materials how it had taken on significant exposure to subprime markets through residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations...
#banks
 > "It really is a disaster with these banks...
#trading, #settlement
 > Justice Department is seeking a $14 billion civil settlement with Deutsche Bank over the German financial institution's alleged role in artificially propping up the...
 > The German lender is now barely worth more than the $14 billion settlement...
 > Deutsche Bank also faces inquiries into legal issues including precious metals tradingand billions of dollars in transfers out of Russia...
 > Amid mounting concern about Deutsche Bank AGâs ability to withstand pending legal penalties, about 10 hedge funds that do business with the German lender have moved to reduce their financial exposure. The shares slumped...
This is just the tip of the iceberg...
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