2017 NBA Offseason Trade Value: Part One
I don’t mean to just outright copy from the trade value series of Bill Simmons, but since he’s not writing often these days, I just thought to bring back one of my favorite reads from him: the trade value series. It’s just a fun read and it spawns puzzling hypotheticals; would Team X deal Player X to Team Y for Player Y?
I really don’t mean to copy exactly how Simmons does his trade value columns but since the measures by which he measures and ranks trade value are so practical, I used them. From Grantland, 2013:
1. Salaries matter. Would you rather pay Kyrie Irving $5.5 million a year or Chris Paul $17.78 million?
2. Age matters. Would you rather have Dirk Nowitzki for the next four seasons or Blake Griffin for the next 12?
3. Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded without cap ramifications but with luxury-tax and next-day-cap ramifications. If Team A tells Team B, “We’ll trade you Player X for Player Y,” would Team B make the deal?
4. Concentrate on degrees. I don’t think the Rockets or Heat would make a Harden-Wade swap, but Miami would at least say, “Harden’s available?” while Houston would say, “We can’t trade Harden for someone who’s seven years older.” That counts in the big scheme of things.
5. The list runs in reverse order. So if Stephen Curry comes in at no. 15, players 1 through 14 are all players about whom Golden State would say, “We hate giving up Curry, but we definitely have to at least have a meeting and discuss this proposal.” And the Warriors wouldn’t trade him straight-up for any player listed between nos. 15 and 50.
To be clear, this post is not about who the best players in the league are. It’s about who the most valuable trade chips in the league are. The contract situation and league perception of the player, along with my own analysis, is important in determining the player’s trade value.
In a new cap landscape, the contracts signed during the era of the old cap are surefire bargains. Danny Green for 12 million a year? Cheap. Khris Middleton, also for 12 million per year? Bargain. Carmelo Anthony for 26 million per year? Can’t be traded because the Knicks are stupid. (Giving Melo a no-trade clause, then ripping him apart for using a provision in his contract which really wasn’t necessary? Classic Knicks.) The salary cap atmosphere is starting to normalize, with hefty contracts signed last offseason being tougher and tougher to swallow each passing day. This is why a lot of good veterans are not going to make the list. With the cap boom and its consequences, (hey Portland and your league-leading payroll!) teams should put more emphasis on acquiring contributors who are either true superstars, stud secondary options, old cap bargains, and rookie deal contributors. Players not in those groups don’t have a lot of trade value. No matter how good our evaluation of trade value is, there will be deals that make us question why we examine trade value in the first place. Take the Jimmy Butler deal for instance. Chicago really sold low on Butler. He’s on a cap-friendly deal, for 2 years at around 40 million, and he’s a true superstar whom you build around. But alas, Lauri Markannen, Zach LaVine, and some throw-ins (sorry Kris Dunn) were enough to get a deal done. Those traded for Butler won’t even sniff the Top 51 for obvious reasons (Markannen and his defensive ineptitude, LaVine and his ACL, Dunn and his busted jumper and confidence) but still, Chicago had to throw Justin Patton in to get the deal done for good measure. Maybe the Bulls will just laugh at us when LaVine blossoms into Prime Vince Carter and when Markannen evolves into a Nowitzki-Gobert hybrid. (Stop laughing!) I don’t know. Dwyane Wade certainly knows something is up because he opted in to that mess of a situation. Have fun D-Wade!
It’s also fun to wonder where the rookies land, and why. LaVar Ball may come at me if I don’t put Lonzo at one, so I may have to think that through. Where will the FEDS of Philly reside in the list or will they even make it at all? Who will be the surprise entrant in this year’s list? Who will top the list?
Before anything else, let’s check the ones who nearly made the honorable mentions list. Blake Griffin doesn’t make the list as he’s far too injury prone and far too busy filming commercials than spending time on the court, not to mention his newly-minted paycheck. (Max contract at 5 years, 175 million) But when healthy, he’s a transcendent talent and a true offensive building block. His locked up frontcourt mate DeAndre Jordan nearly made the top honorable mentions but reports that no team was willing to give the Clippers what they wanted for Jordan near the draft season shrinks his value a little. Another Clipper, Patrick Beverley, is one of the best bargains in the league and had a breakout postseason with the Rockets this past season, but he needs to prove that he can sustain his star-like performance to solidify his trade value. Andre Drummond still has time to live up to his contract after seeing his game either regressing or stalling. Aaron Gordon and 2015 draftee Justise Winslow still haven’t developed an outside shot, and in this era of pace and space, they’re going to have a hard time being legitimate stars. D’Angelo Russell was just a sweetener in a salary dump. Robert Covington leads the league in deflections and is a bonafide lockdown defender but his cheap contract only runs through this year. Lastly, I know Buddy Hield was the centerpiece of the DeMarcus Cousins trade but he still has to do more than score in order to be an offensive centerpiece. On to the honorable mentions… (in no particular order)
Paul George, Thunder: If this list was made last year, he would’ve certainly cracked the Top 20. But alas, another playoff defeat at the hands of LeBron James, wanderlust for Los Angeles and a depressing trade that ships him out of Indiana knocks him out of the Top 51. Oklahoma City turned a negative asset (Victor Oladipo) and a soft perimeter-oriented big who scuffled after the All-Star break (Domantas Sabonis) into a Top 20 player in the league and they’re not about to give him up again as they try to convince both Russell Westbrook and George to stay in Oklahoma, as this franchise can’t afford another superstar to bolt and leave the franchise in shambles. Will he be enough to convince Russ to stay?
DeMarcus Cousins, Pelicans: As we saw with the Cousins trade last February, his off-court transgressions really caused his stock to dip, prompting Kings GM Vlade Divac to almost downright claim that Cousins was indeed a big locker room cancer. As Divac said in the press conference announcing the trade, "Winning begins with culture and character matters. With the upcoming draft class set to be one of the strongest in a decade, this trade will allow us to build the depth needed for a talented and developing roster moving forward.” See, if a franchise chooses to hit the reset button, tell the media that “culture and character matters” and end up settling for a seemingly dismal return for a player of Cousins’ caliber, we see that his attitude problems are truly preventing teams from dealing for him and with him. But with a player of his size and skill, who has averaged 21.2 points per game, and 10.8 rebounds per game for his career, and along with the development of his outside touch, (he drained 131 threes last season at a 36% clip) the Pelicans have a chance to erase any concerns about Cousins’ character with wins.
Kevin Love, Cavaliers: In the potential Cavaliers trade for George, his contract was the holdup. In the potential Knicks deal for Carmelo Anthony, the Knicks didn’t want any part of his deal. (That may be due to the prescence of Kristaps Porzingis.) Teams are scared to assume his contract in their payroll and it may not be so hard to see as to why. Love, at his core, is a flat-footed big man who struggles to make an impact defensively on a nightly basis. But he is a stud secondary option (and an overqualified third option) who can be the center of an offense, with his passing vision (20.5% assist rate in his final year in Minnesota) and elite perimeter shooting. (37% on 6 attempts) Knowing that, he still didn’t make the list because the league’s perception of him has really changed. From the player who was looked at as a transcendent offensive talent and was once offered Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and David Lee (possibly also Draymond Green) for, he is now a player who can’t even be traded for a player on an expiring contract who has made it clear that he has set his eyes on Hollywood or for a player whose trade value has been destroyed by the hapless Knicks. How much more can Love be traded for young studs on cheap contracts or cornerstones on bargain rates?
DeMar DeRozan, Raptors: He is a bonafide stud, no question about that. But DeRozan’s style of play is a headache, and the only team that his ball-dominant, mid-range chucking game can fit in is the Raptors. His style of play perfectly complements Kyle Lowry, and he gets to play in a spaced out court most of the time which gives him free rein to control the offense and play his game. But for that price tag, I don’t see any team willing to give up anything of value to try and risk overhauling the offense with DeRozan’s game. Don’t get me wrong, he is one of the most electric players in the league and in some days, he looks like the best player in the world with his athletic ability and dynamite scoring punch. Looking at his individual track record though, his value tanks. Without Lowry to prop up his game, lineups which include him as its focal point are outscored by 0.4 per 100 possessions but when the switch is flipped with Lowry, the Raptors outscore teams by 10.8 per 100. He also is noticeably worse in the postseason, where the defense is more focused on him. Everyone will have a hard time finding any takers for him, which really damages his trade value big time.
Jonathan Isaac, Magic; Thon Maker, Bucks; Marquese Chriss, Suns: These three big men are the big men archetypes of today. Lucrative deals for any of them will not happen until 2019, at the earliest. They almost made the list due to how their skills are being valued in today’s NBA. Jonathan Isaac is a 6’10 lanky combo forward, with a 7’1 wingspan, and his build screams potential. If he develops a consistent outside shot (34.8% on 2.8 attempts in college), and if he progresses as expected to be a lockdown perimeter defender, he will make this list sooner than later. If he develops a mean streak that enables him to become a go-to scorer, he can be a superstar.
Maker and Chriss however, came closer to making this list than Isaac. Maker has arms for days and at 7’1, if he earns the trust of Jason Kidd, he can be one of the best breakout stars of 2017-2018. He shot almost 38% from deep, and playing alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, that spacing he provides means that he is an extremely valuable asset to Milwaukee. However, he still needs to bulk up and improve his rebounding, as he still loses minutes to Greg Monroe and John Henson because of his inferior rebounding rate, which is only 11.8 %. (For comparison, Monroe is at 16.9% for his career and Henson is at 15.4%) His long arms help him get some rebounds but far too often he gets outmuscled. If he bulks up, continues his sweet shooting, and improves his defense, he will shoot up these rankings. The same applies for Chriss, only his shooting stroke is worse, his rebounding is even weaker than Maker’s but he is more athletic and a stronger finisher at the rim. If Chriss irons out the kinks of his game, he can be a stud second or third option for the Suns. For now, these three remain in the Honorable Mentions list.
TIER XV. Combo Guard Brigade
51. Malcolm Brogdon, Bucks, PG/SG
Contract: 2 yrs/2.86 million
What do you know? The 36th overall pick has shattered and lapped everyone’s expectation of him. He was just expected at the beginning of the season to provide some shooting and some insurance at the guard spot for the then newly-signed Matthew Dellavedova, but with Dellavedova turning into a shell of his former self without the ageless LeBron James, Brogdon seized the point guard spot and never looked back. College experience has really been undervalued. Brogdon went the distance in college and now he reaps the reward: a rookie of the year award.
He is a steady presence at point guard and he is the perfect guard for Giannis Antetokounmpo. He provides leadership, spacing, and he can even get you a triple-double. (December 31,2016 against the Bulls, he put up 15 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists) He also makes a measly 2.86 million over two years. The only qualm is that he’s already 24 years old and though he can get better, he doesn’t have that high of a ceiling. But given that he’s already proven many wrong, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.
50. Donovan Mitchell, Jazz, SG
Contract: 2 yrs/5.7 million (2 year Team Option)
I think this is an overreaction but his summer league stats have really been impressive. He’s pitched in 24 points per game on 44% shooting overall. What’s important is that he looks like he belongs on both ends, with sheer tenacity on the defensive end (8 steals against summer Grizzlies) and a solid jumpshot on the offensive end. With the Jazz reeling after they lost Gordon Hayward to the Celtics, (Are they really reeling though? They signed Ekpe Udoh, the 2017 Euroleague MVP! Maybe the Jazz are sneaky geniuses, allowing Hayward to leave so Udoh can be the focal point of the offense!) there is a huge scoring void on the wing. Under the postseason spotlight, Rodney Hood struggled mightily with his shooting, Joe Johnson is already 36, while Joe Ingles may just be a contract year mirage. This gives Mitchell an opportunity to assert himself as a star, and it looks like the Jazz may need every bit of what he can give.
Mitchell can flat out shoot the lights out and he has insanely quick hands that enable him to shut down passing lanes. Given the right opportunity and under the right coach, (in Quin Snyder we trust) Mitchell can develop into the next great 3-and-D archetype wing. He can be Paul George-lite in the way he scores and defends. George, in his rookie campaign struggled to get minutes as he was struck by the Jim O’Brien fever and he only started to start during his sophomore year but never found his star footing until Danny Granger got struck by the injury bug. Maybe the departure of Hayward can be that Granger-like opportunity Mitchell needs to develop into a star and maybe as a rookie he becomes an instant sensation.
49. Jamal Murray, Nuggets, PG/SG
Contract: 3 yr/11.2 million
Is he a point guard or a shooting guard? Nonetheless, Murray struggled mightily during his rookie year where he barely eclipsed the 40 percent mark from the field. However, Murray still possesses dynamite scoring option potential, and the Nuggets have made him untouchable in trade talks, with him off-limits in proposed talks for George. He can really go off on any given night, and although his size prevents him to be a defensive stopper of any sort, that hasn’t stopped score-first guards from flourishing. Murray’s touch from deep is deadly, and dating back to his days in Kentucky, he can really become a dangerous off-ball weapon which is vital to Denver’s high octane offense centered around Jokic. The potential is here and ready to be tapped. Most teams would still like to acquire Murray and his 20+ points per game potential.
TIER XIV. Old Cap Bargains
48. Nikola Vucevic, Magic, C
Contract: 2 yrs/25 million
The game certainly has passed big men with playing style like his by, and he doesn’t even offer rim protection. So why is he 47th? He’s a playable big man in the right matchups with his smooth scoring touch from the block and from midrange. He’s also signed to an extremely team-friendly deal which runs through 2019, so he won’t be just a rental if he’s to be dealt away. He still has monster rebounding ability and the money he’s making is less than what Joakim Noah is making and Vooch is more than twice as better than the shell of Noah. He’s a better version of what Pau Gasol is today. And for the price, Vucevic carries enough scoring prowess and skill to be a valuable big man in today’s NBA where big men are unquestionably devalued.
47. Markieff Morris/Marcus Morris, Wizards/Celtics, SF/PF
Contracts: Markieff: 2 yrs/16.6 million
Marcus: 2 yrs/10.4 million
I’m cheating a bit here, placing two players in one slot. But hey, that’s what happens when your identical twin step up for you when you sprain your friggin’ ankle in a playoff game. They even have the same tattoos! The question is, between these twins, who is the better player?
Markieff: 16.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.8 bpg, 45% FG
Marcus: 14.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.3 bpg, 42% FG
At first glance, it sure looks like Markieff is the better player. Underlying stats, however tell a different story:
Markieff: (career) 22% USG, 12.8% TO, .083 WS/48, 4.0 VORP (Value over Replacement Player)
Marcus: (career) 19.3% USG, 9.9% TO, .084 WS/48, 4.5 VORP
And even last season which had the Wizards winning 12 more games than Marcus’s Pistons, (49 to 37), Markieff’s win shares were just 0.2 more than his twin’s. (4.1 to 3.9) And even if Markieff has played more minutes in his career than his brother, (11801 to 10916) Marcus still leads him in VORP. Even though Marcus is definitely less efficient even in a lower usage role, he just helps your team win since he is a better floor spacer than Markieff. Markieff is more of a ball-dominant player and sometimes he kills the Wizards’ offense by taking contested jumpers and forcing contested drives to the rim. For 8 million a year, Markieff still has potential for his game to grow and John Wall makes every one of his teammates better. On the other hand, Marcus is more of a complementary piece to the Detroit offense, where he’s not forced to do too much but defend well and bomb some 3s. The Celtics definitely get a good, if not great, piece for upcoming free agent Avery Bradley, and for the price of peanuts (5 million per annum), Marcus may be one of the last true bargains in the league and most teams would love to get their hands on a player of his skillset for the price tag. For all intents and purposes, Markieff is 47B and Marcus is 47A.
46. Tobias Harris, Pistons, SF/PF
Contract: 2 yrs/30.8 million
This tier can make you wonder, “What the heck? I’d rather have Blake Griffin, or the LA-bound expiring contract of Paul George than these players!” I get that. These players are not bonafide stars and they can even be boring, let’s face it. But let’s compare the career stats per 36 of those three and their contract situations:
Harris: 17.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.9 spg, 0.6 bpg, 47% FG, 33% 3PT; 15.4 m, 2 years
George: 19.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.8 spg, 0.4 bpg, 43% FG, 37% 3PT; LA-Bound, 1 year
Griffin: 22.0 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.6 bpg, 52% FG, 30% 3PT, 83/246 games missed the past three years; 34.4 m, 5 years
Harris may be the most underrated player in the league. He is clearly the worst player among those three, but his contract situation is also the friendliest and most valuable. His career stats (and George’s) are also admittedly dragged down by rotting on the bench for the first years of his career, but after being traded to the Magic midyear in the 2012-2013 season, his career took off and he hasn’t looked back. He’s not flashy offensively, but he gets you buckets and he provides mobility and lateral quickness for the four spot. He’s also locked into a team-friendly deal, and given the right opportunity, he could break out as a legitimate star. The Pistons have shuffled him back and forth in the starting lineup but given a more consistent role, Harris can become a household name. If Harris can improve his defensive consistency (109 Defensive Rating) and court vision (he gets locked into scoring mode more often than not instead of making the extra pass), he can be an All-Star in the weak East. Seeing as to how Drummond’s game failed to grow exponentially the past season, Harris may be ready to step into that star role sooner than later.
TIER XIII. I’d love to trade for them but…
45. Clint Capela, Rockets, C
Contract: 1 yr/2.3 million
…he’s due for max money next offseason. The 25th pick in the 2014 draft, Capela has morphed into the ideal Houston Rockets center James Harden and GM Daryl Morey thought they were getting when they signed Dwight Howard. Capela is a no non-sense big man who understands his role as a menacing lob threat and he’s also improving as a free-throw shooter. Capela doesn’t command touches on the block; touches find him because of how good he is as a pick and roll big. He’s in the Top 15 in points per possession in P&R action (1.14), and that number could grow even higher if Harden wants to find him more. Even if he can’t hold a candle to what the league leading roll man can do (DeAndre Jordan), for the measly sum of 2.3 million this year, the Rockets can’t afford to deal him in any way. The Rockets are going all-in, and Capela will soon lose his trade value when he signs his new lucrative deal, but for now, Capela is borderline untouchable for Houston and prospective buyers will immediately be shut down by Morey.
44. Kyle Lowry, Raptors, PG
Contract: 3 yrs/100 million
…he just signed a new deal (3 years for around 91 million) and he’s 31 years of age. There are also not much contenders needing help with their point guard situation (The Spurs come to mind but they don’t have nearly enough assets to swing a potential deal that’s worth Toronto’s while) but he still ends up at 44. Lowry is also someone who’s suffering from DeRozan disease (Lowry’s percentages and per game averages noticeably dip by a lot during the postseason) and he’s more of a second banana in a title-winning team than a lead star. He still makes this list because he’s just so damn good in the regular season. Ever since that life-changing Rudy Gay trade to the Kings midyear (2013-2014), Lowry has broken out and his team has become a contender ever since. Lowry is a bonafide offensive star and although his defense has slipped from his peak, he’s still one of the better defensive guards out there. The Raptors are really fortunate to sign him for just three years, ensuring that they don’t pay Lowry max money for his ages 34-35 seasons and if they are to make him available, there will still be teams lining up and be willing to foot the bill for a player of Lowry’s caliber.
43. Joel Embiid, 76ers, C
Contract: 1 yr/6.1 million
…he’s played all of 31 games in his “3 year” career. He is, by far, the toughest player to rank in the league. When on the court, he is a transcendent talent. He commands double teams and he even has a sweet three-point stroke. He has great hands and excellent speed for a behemoth and in the era of pace-and-space, he will not get played off the court by smaller big men as the mismatch he presents on the offensive end will far outweigh Embiid’s disadvantage on defense. On top of his excellent offensive repertoire, he is a legitimate defensive anchor. He held opponents to 40.8% shooting at the rim on 7.7 attempts. His timing is impeccable and his pick and roll coverage is advanced for a player of his experience. The sad truth is that his durability has been whack for his whole career. He’s missed two whole seasons due to foot and various leg injuries, and he wasn’t able to finish the season on the court due to a Torn Meniscus. He is an extremely volatile asset and to further depress his trade value, this is Embiid’s last season left in his rookie-scale contract, so he’s due for a monster payday soon. The question is, who doesn’t want to pay big money for a player who averaged monster stats per 36?:
Embiid: 28.7 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 3.5 bpg, 1.6 made threes, 3.0 apg
Who doesn’t want a player who’s undeniably a positive locker room influence and a fun guy through and through? Who doesn’t want a player who can’t stand LaVar Ball? Who doesn’t want a player who’s just like us hoping to score dates with our crushes on Twitter? Who doesn’t want a player who just wants to be a friggin’ 95 on NBA 2K? Embiid is a true superstar for the masses. He’s an extremely marketable player and he is one of the rare players who puts butts on seats. He just needs to prove he can stay on the court and he will belong in the Top 15, that’s for sure. I understand those who are going to say that this ranking is too darn low, but teams, especially in the technology era, value durability and games played a lot. Giving up anyone ranked higher for a player who is uncertain to stay on the court is a tough pill to swallow for almost any team and Philly giving up Embiid without being sure he can stay on the court consistently is unjustifiable. So for now, he stays at 43.
42. De’Aaron Fox, Kings, PG
Contract: 2 yrs/10.08 million (2 year Team Option)
…his jumper needs more consistency. We all know the cautionary tale of Elfrid Payton – a player who has the tools and capabilities you’d want from a point guard but is consistently being hamstrung by his broken jumpshot. Payton also doesn’t compensate for his broken jumper with elite court vision, a la Prime Rajon Rondo. When you catch Payton on TV in the right night, he will drop a triple-double and will amaze you with how he affects the game on both ends. This could be Fox’s career if he doesn’t become a more consistent shooter. Fox’s worst case scenario is that his fame will just depend on the wildness of his hair – much like Payton. Looking back at the 2014 draft, Payton was regarded as a safe prospect – a player with a fairly high ceiling but is coveted because of his high floor and he certainly impressed scouts with his college performance. Fox’s floor may even be higher than Payton’s. Fox is a relentless slasher and a speedster, which Payton never was. He also has better passing skills than Payton. But Fox’s jumpshot is the key – if he develops a jumpshot even as good as John Wall’s has developed (34% from deep the past 4 seasons), he’s an extremely valuable point guard. But in today’s NBA, a player who doesn’t shoot threes very well can only be so valuable, even a point guard as freakishly athletic as Fox.
TIER XII. Versatile Combo Forwards
41. Jae Crowder, Celtics, SF/PF
Contract: 3 yrs/21.8 million
40. Dario Saric, 76ers, PF
Contract: 3 yrs/8.4 million
Saric and Crowder are extremely valuable combo forwards and it will take a lot to pry these players away from their teams. They plug holes in lineups and they’re excellent pieces for their teams as they try to contend in the weak Eastern Conference. They’re what every team needs – they contribute a little bit of everything. They find different ways to contribute – but the end result is almost the same. Their stat lines are very similar. Exhibit A:
Crowder (2016-2017): 13.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.2 apg, 46% FG, 40% 3PT, 81% FT
Saric: 12.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.2 apg, 41% FG, 31% 3PT, 78% FT
Crowder has better shooting percentages and a better stat line overall because he has better teammates. Crowder is also better by leaps and bounds defensively. But Saric has this inate feel for the game, and he has excellent court vision for a forward. He can handle the ball in transition and he can finish with both hands. He’s the ideal frontcourt mate for Embiid. Crowder is a better three-point shooter and defender, but Saric is the better passer and the better asset overall. Saric is 4 years younger than Crowder, and Crowder’s value on offense stems from playing with better teammates than Saric. Saric can make his teammates better and I can easily see Saric flourishing in Crowder’s team. On the other hand, if Crowder is sent to the 76ers, he may struggle to make as big of an impact to the team than Saric, and Crowder is more of a valuable asset to a contending team anyway. What makes Saric the better asset aside from age is that Saric is being paid just a hair above the minimum salary while displaying boatloads of potential. Crowder is locked up in an extremely cap-friendly deal in his own right but Saric’s rookie scale salary is a downright joke. Crowder is better now, but Saric is close behind, with tons of potential and room for growth to spare.
TIER XI. Super Scoring Guards
39. C.J. McCollum, Trail Blazers, PG/SG
Contract: 4 yr/106 million
38. Dennis Smith Jr., Mavericks, PG
Contract: 2 yr/7.04 million (2 year Team Option)
This player can downright fill the scoring column. He can drop buckets in bunches. He’s one of the few true “microwave” players; once he drops a bucket on you, the buckets never stop raining. He’s also notorious for being a defensive sieve. He tries hard but most of the time he gets caught napping and gets caught by picks. It’s a bit eerie that all of the above applies to both McCollum and Smith. McCollum and Smith are players cut from the same cloth and both were drafted mid-lottery because of questions about their defensive intensity and playmaking. (McCollum, 10th pick in 2013; Smith, 9th pick in 2017)
After being glued to the bench his first few years in the league, McCollum has broken out into a true scoring option and a star alongside Damian Lillard. However, in this era of 3-and-D wings, McCollum doesn’t have stud scoring option trade value, as he remains one of the worst defensive players in the league. But when a team has the right personnel to surround McCollum, he can elevate the offensive ceiling of the team without giving back his impact on the defensive end. He’s 5th in the league last season in effective FG% in pull-ups (Min. 60 games played, and 3 pullup FGA) and he’s 11th in the league in effective FG% in catch and shoot situations. The problem is that McCollum’s skillset is highly superfluous with Lillard’s. Both love to control the offense and be the focal point of the offense. Lillard attempted 9 pull-up shots per game while McCollum wasn’t close behind, with 8.6. They love to utilize screens and shoot off pick and roll situations. Sometimes, Portland’s offense was highly reminiscent of the Thunder’s offense with Kevin Durant and Westbrook. The two lead stars took turns hoisting up shots and controlling the offense. Sounds familiar? This “your turn-my turn” offense the Thunder ran drove away Durant. Will it drive away one of the Portland’s lead guards? They’re both locked up for a while, but for now, we will see just how far a team with two lead guards can go, especially for a team with Portland’s mess of a cap situation.
Meanwhile, the higher-ranked Smith would have no such issues in Dallas. He’s in a perfect situation where Dirk Nowitzki’s shooting makes everybody better. There is also no guard skillset overlap since Yogi Ferrell, Seth Curry, and J.J. Barea are very different players from Smith. Smith also fits the mold of the scoring point guard that’s en vogue nowadays. His athletic presence and scoring threat could also make everyone around him better. Looking at his Summer League performance, the Mavericks really got a keeper in their hands. Comparing the two, while McCollum is the better shooter and the better player now, Smith has the potential to grow into so much more, and comparing their salary situations, I’d rather have Smith in my squad.
37. Eric Bledsoe, Suns, PG
Contract: 2 yrs/29.5 million
The last guard left in Phoenix’s grand point guard experiment of 2014, Bledsoe turned in his finest season last season, averaging 21.1 points, 6.3 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game. He’s a valuable stat-sheet stuffer and every so often he looks like his college backcourt mate, John Wall. In the right nights, he can be such a blur and he can be unstoppable attacking the rim. For a guy acquired for Jared Dudley, Bledsoe has been quite the get for Phoenix. After a contract standoff in the 2014 offseason, Bledsoe’s contract has turned into a bargain. The problem with Bledsoe is his durability, and his knee injuries have sapped him a bit of his athleticism. This is why Denver has been hesitant to trade for Bledsoe even if he is a major upgrade at point guard over Jameer Nelson and Emmanuel Mudiay. Bledsoe has missed 107 games during his tenure in Phoenix and his three-point shooting has remained spotty.A good sign is that he can shoot well off the catch, at around 38% on 2 attempts per game. He can play off Jokic and be a good addition to a deadly offense in the Mile High City. The cause for concern is that can he still play quality defense? He allowed players whom he defended to shoot 4.2% better than their usual averages. With three meniscus injuries in the rear view, including a surgery which removed his right meniscus, he may not be a quality player for long. He’s also bricky off the dribble (39% EFG) and he’s not someone who’s going to take your team to the next level. His partnership with Booker helped propel him to a career year last season, but he may not be in Phoenix for long. Phoenix can ask for a bounty in return since he’s locked into an old-cap bargain contract through next season, but buyers beware: Bledsoe’s reputation is better than his actual impact. Bledsoe can score and do all the little things well, but the teams that plan to acquire him have to temper their expectations. Even with all that risk that comes with Bledsoe, he still ends up at 37 because for his salary, he’s well worth the price. He’s making just slightly more than Miles Plumlee and John Henson, and he makes less than Timofey Mozgov and Joakim Noah. Enough said.
That concludes the first part of the Trade Value Series! Stay tuned for parts two and three!
All stats indicated were either from Basketball-reference and stats.nba.com. The idea comes from Bill Simmons, so credit to him as well.
