#$cx

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Alcoa, Cemex, PacWest Bancorp, Switch and Tractor Supply

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Alcoa, Ticker: $AA

Alcoa, $AA, comes into the week breaking resistance. It has a RSI rising and bullish with the MACD positive and climbing. Look for continuation to participate…..

CEMEX, Ticker: $CX

CEMEX, $CX, comes into the week pressing to a higher high after a pullback. The RSI is rising towards the bullish zone with the MACD about to cross to positive. Look for continuation to participate…..

PacWest Bancorp, Ticker: $PACW

PacWest Bancorp, $PACW, comes into the week at the 200 day SMA after a pullback. The RSI is falling in the bearish zone with the MACD flat but negative. Look for a reaction to support to participate…..

Switch, Ticker: $SWCH

Switch, $SWCH, comes into the week pressing over resistance. The RSI is rising and bullish with the MACD crossing up and positive. Look for continuation to participate…..

Tractor Supply, Ticker: $TSCO

Tractor Supply, $TSCO, comes into the week pulling back from a new high. The RSI is also dropping with the MACD crossed down. Look for continuation to participate…..

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the December Quadruple Witching in the books, saw equity markets showing some weakness.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its consolidation while Crude Oil consolidates as well. The US Dollar Index looks to pause in the uptrend while US Treasuries consolidate. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue in consolidation as well while Emerging Markets continue to move lower.

The Volatility Index looks to remain in the normal range easing the pressure on equity markets. Their charts look vulnerable on the shorter timeframe. On the longer timeframe both the QQQ and SPY look stronger while all three, including the IWM, remain in consolidation. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Alexion Pharma, CEMEX, NCR, Northwest Bancshares & Union Pacific

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Ticker: $ALXN

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, $ALXN, fell from an October peak, making a low in December. The bounce from there retraced 50% of the fall and then fell back to the December low. Another push spiked to a higher high before also failing and retreating to the prior low. Since May it has moved up and then consolidated in a symmetrical triangle. The RSI is knocking on the edge of the bullish zone and the MACD is crossing up. Look for break of the triangle to the upside to participate.....

CEMEX, Ticker: $CX

CEMEX, $CX, started moving lower in July last year. A couple of false bonces along the way, none over the 200 day SMA, and it made a low in May. Since then it has consolidated sideways until starting a move higher last week. The RSI is rising toward the bullish zone with the MACD now positive and moving up. Look for continuation to participate higher.....

NCR, Ticker: $NCR

NCR, $NCR, stair stepped lower, finding a bottom in May after gapping down from a consolidation. Since then it has pushed up and then retraced to a higher low. Now it is making a higher high at resistance. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD rising and positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate.....

Northwest Bancshares, Ticker: $NWBI

Northwest Bancshares, $NWBI, marched higher from a September low until finding resistance at the end of the month. That resistance would hold for the next 8 months, when it broke it to the upside at the end of May. It continued higher into June and then stalled upon making a higher high. It pulled back in a bull flag and Friday looks to have started a move out of the flag. The RSI is in the bullish zone and the MACD is kissing the signal line. Look for continuation higher to participate.....

Union Pacific, Ticker: $UNP

Union Pacific, $UNP, gapped down in January and ran lower to the 100 day SMA. It loosely followed that higher, bouncing off of resistance at the gap fill, until showing continuation in May. After making a higher high at the start of June it has been consolidating. The RSI is in the bullish zone and the MACD is about to cross up. Look for a push over resistance to participate.....

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with June options expiration and the June FOMC meeting behind allowing the market to look forward to slow summer trading and the next quarter's earnings season. As it does, equity markets continue to look strong.

Elsewhere look for Gold to resume its move lower while Crude Oil turns lower as well. The US Dollar Index continues to strengthen while US Treasuries consolidate in the channel that has held then all year. The Shanghai Composite is making multi year lows and looking weak with Emerging Markets on the verge of turning a digestive bull flag into a bearish reversal.

Volatility looks to remain at very low levels keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts are a bit mixed with the IWM and then the QQQ leading in the shorter timeframe as the SPY continues to struggle at the March highs. But on the longer timeframe all look strong, still the IWM leading with the QQQ close behind and the SPY dragging up the rear. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Cincinnati Financial, CEMEX, Darden, PerkinElmer and Valero

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Cincinnati Financial, Ticker: $CINF

Cincinnati Financial, $CINF, had a strong move higher through early 2016 until reaching a plateau in July. It held there for nearly 4 months until dropping back to the 200 day SMA at the beginning of November. Since then it has had a wild ride with a fast move higher into early December followed by a quick down move into January and now a second strong bounce. Into the new week it is at minor resistance with the RSI moving into the bullish range and the MACD crossed up and rising, both supporting more upside. Look for a break over resistance to participate higher.....

CEMEX, Ticker: $CX

CEMEX, $CX, moved up from a June 2016 low, stalling in August. Since then it has made a series of higher highs and higher lows, leading to the current consolidation since mid-February. Friday saw the price back at resistance with the RSI moving up and bullish while the MACD has crossed up. Look for a push through resistance to participate to the upside.....

Darden Restaurants, Ticker: $DRI

Darden Restaurants, $DRI, rose out of consolidation in November and quickly moved higher to a peak in early December 25% higher. It pulled back from there into the end of the year and had a weak bounce before retesting the pullback low and reversing higher. It made a higher high, confirming a double bottom and then made a shallow pull back. Last week it pushed higher out of the pullback and ended the week at resistance. The RSI is moving up in the bullish zone while the MACD is crossing up. Look for a push over resistance to participate higher.....

PerkinElmer, Ticker: $PKI

PerkinElmer, $PKI, went through a strong trend higher from 2011 until starting a broad consolidation in 2015. That broke to the upside in June 2016, but did not move very far, stalling in late July. Just a new consolidation range slightly higher with support roughly below the 200 day SMA. Since a bottom in November though it has been moving higher and ended last week at a new all-time high close, and over resistance. The RSI is bullish and rising and the MACD is moving up as well. Look for continuation to participate higher.....

Valero Energy, Ticker: $VLO

Valero Energy, $VLO, moved higher off of a low in July last year, reaching a top in December. Since then it has consolidated moving mostly sideways. But since February began it has made higher highs and higher lows, a possible change of character to the upside. The RSI is rising and bullish while the MACD is crossed up and rising. Look for continuation to participate higher.....

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the March FOMC meeting and Options Expiration in the rear view mirror, sees the markets to have come through unscathed, although with a new leader.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue in its short term uptrend while Crude Oil bounces off of support. The US Dollar Index looks to continue lower while US Treasuries are back into consolidation in the downtrend. The Shanghai Composite continues to drift slowly higher and Emerging Markets are fire moving higher.

Volatility looks to remain at abnormally low levels keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. The SPY and QQQ look to consolidate on the shorter timeframe just as the IWM is ready to take over leadership to the upside. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Chicago Bridge & Iron, CEMEX, Foot locker, Humana and Infinera

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Chicago Bridge & Iron, Ticker: $CBI

Chicago Bridge & Iron, $CBI, had settled into a consolidation after falling through January. That lasted until August, over 6 months. But instead of breaking consolidation to the upside it broke down, eventually finding a new bottom in September. Since then it has been moving higher Friday it hit the short term support area from the beginning of September. It has a RSI climbing toward the bullish zone and a MACD crossed up and rising. A push through this resistance is a reason to participate to the upside.....

CEMEX, Ticker: $CX

CEMEX, $CX, moved higher off of a bottom in January. It paused in consolidation from April to June before a second move higher that peaked in early August. Another consolidating pullback ended with a touch at the 100 day SMA in mid September and it has been rising since. Last week it pushed back to its 50 day SMA and held there. The RSI is knocking on the edge of a move into the bullish zone and the MACD is crossed up, rising and positive. Look for a break over the end of September high to participate to the upside.....

Foot Locker, Ticker: $FL

Foot Locker, $FL, fell out of consolidation in April and found support in June. Making a low after the Brexit vote, it has risen ever since. It pulled back to its 20 day SMA from a peak in August and is now back at that level as resistance. The RSI is in the bullish zone and the MACD is flat after falling, and positive. Look for a push higher to participate in the upside.....

Humana, Ticker: $HUM

Humana, $HUM, was slammed lower to start July, and after 2 weeks of settling rose almost as fast. But it never recovered fully. Since mid-August it ran lower in a falling channel until reaching its 200 day SMA. That has held as support and forced price to morph into sideways consolidation. With the Bollinger Bands® squeezing, look for a move over consolidation to participate to the upside.....

Infinera, Ticker: $INFN

Infinera, $INFN, has been trending lower since April. It has vacillated between the 50 day and 100 day SMA as resistance as it heads lower. But since August it has been moving sideways in a channel and ended last week pressing against the top of that channel. The RSI is rising and on the edge of the bullish zone while the MACD is rising and positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate to the upside.....

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which heading into next week sees the equity index ETF's look like they need a breather in the short term.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue lower while Crude Oil continues to the upside. The US Dollar Index looks strong but range bound while US Treasuries are biased lower again. The Shanghai Composite is biased to the drift to the downside Emerging Markets look like they will continue to consolidate in the uptrend.

Volatility looks to remain in the lower end of the normal range keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts all look to continue consolidating in the short run with the QQQ looking the best for upside and the SPY next, with the IWM at risk for a pullback. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

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[stefancheplick]

If Donald Trump is Impacting the Stock Market, Here’s Where to Look

Without question we are watching one of the most stunning elections ever.

When it comes to the stock market, it’s interesting to see if the elections are impacting markets in any possible way. There are a few reasons why people watch and care about this. Here are 3 examples: 

1. It might provide insight into what Wall Street thinks about the elections.  2. It could show what industries the potential new President favors.  3. It may even show how a potential President’s policies will impact certain companies.

In this current election, Donald Trump has proposed some radical ideas. One of Trump’s big slogans is, “build the wall.” He wants to build a wall between Mexico and the United States. He also wants Mexico to pay for it.

In stock market, there is an ETF called EWW. It tracks the largest companies in Mexico. That means America Movil SAB, Grupo Televisa, Cemex, and more. Something really interesting recently happened to this Mexico ETF. So far this month, it’s up more than 10%. It’s also a 3 standard deviation move by some measures (see the chart below).

What could that be saying about the election right now?

[valuewalkposts]

Which Stocks Win From A Wall With Mexico?

[Mexican border fence near Fundo Legal, Heroica Nogales, Sonora by GothEric, Flickr]

By Mark Melin

What Trump And Sanders Said About Oil Prices 4 Years Ago ...

Despite what they consider the “ludicrous” nature of presumed Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump’s proposal for building a wall, the analysts at Bernstein have figured out the investing angle on the activity. After noting the logistical hurdles which don’t just rival the Great Wall of China – but in some respects exceed it in foundational complexity – the Bernstein analysis note investment winners. Interestingly, Trump just might be in a position to benefit companies based in Mexico. But what the report didn’t discuss is perhaps its most interesting revelation relative to the 2016 political season. Did Bernstein unwittingly create an effective Trump political success indicator based on the stock prices of those firms who might benefit from building The Great Wall of Trump?

How Much Will iPhone 8 Cost If Trump Is Elected President ...

The Great Wall of Trump has shifting logistical challenges that could make it a modern miracle

Building a Great Wall of Trump could be an accomplishment rivaling a 13,173-mile milestone in China. The problem with comparing the Trump Wall to a construction accomplishment that took almost centuries to complete is the point in time in which the task was completed.

Trump, if elected and he actually lives up to his campaign promise, will have the advantage of modern construction techniques. Thus, to compare the nature of the physical accomplishment of building the Great Wall of China is less than relevant. Not only is the task easier today, but the Trump wall may only cover 1,989 miles along the border of Mexico, making this the less than great wall of Trump.

Warren Buffett Talks Donald Trump's Tax 'Policy'

The Bernstein report, however, noted that the accomplishment will nonetheless be significant. Perhaps the most significant barrier to success is the diverse terrain.

Building a 40-foot-high concrete wall sounds easy, until you realize that much of the border is comprised of moving sand dunes. In Southern California a “floating fence” was required to adjust to the natural movements of the terrain. Such a floating structure might be easier to tunnel under, depending on the funneling methodology and time frame. At the time over $7 billion was spent covering 653 miles of border fencing that the government began building following the 9/11 attacks. Trump has estimated a cost near $10 billion, but Bernstein points to what it considers more real estimates near the $15 billion to $25 billion region.

Existing walls in the region cost $2.8 million to $3.9 million per mile, the US Government Accounting Office has stated. Bernstein notes this is a generous estimate, as it is only for the easy construction stretches.

Carl Icahn And Donald Trump Bromance Is Over

The problem is terrain. What isn’t in sand is in either encased in mountains, particularly along the New Mexico border, or running along water, which involves challenging flood plains management issues. A wall would require ripping into previously protected wildlife and wetlands areas and acquiring land from ranchers who might fight the sale of their land to the Trump wall.

Building the Great Wall of Trump will be complex. And in complexity, there is often opportunity.

Sam Zell On The Economy, Investment Markets And Donald Trump ...

Is Martin Marietta the best stock proxy for a Trump victory?

From an investment standpoint, the Trump wall could be a boondoggle for US construction-related firms – and even those in Mexico.

George Soros Slams Donald Trump, Ted Cruz In New Article ...

Bernstein estimates the construction of the Great Wall of Trump could add 1% to US cement demand, which would likely start to impact supply and demand near 2018 at the earliest. From an investment standpoint, Bernstein notes this could translate into benefits for pure-plays such as CalPortland, a difficult to invest in private company, and Cemex, a Mexican concern. Less direct plays might include Martin Marietta and Vulcan.

What the report didn’t really flush out is how these stocks might be a bellwether for Trumps political potential. Cemex, for its part, appears to have followed a consistent recent pricing pattern with the S&P 500 – a steep drop off amid Brexit panic and then a recovery and move to new highs.

Moody's: Donald Trump Policy To Destroy Economy

Martin Marietta is a little more interesting. Like most stocks, it bottomed on February 11 but then as the reality of a Trump presidency advanced it moved higher, breaking year to date highs on May 6 and continuing to climb. The stock started its decent at the end of 2015, near the time of the Fed interest rate hike and clear uncertainty over a potential Trump victory. During the most recent Brexit market panic and recovery, the stock was down only slightly. Brexit at the time was viewed as a positive for Trump, yet another sign that the masses are fed up with establishment elites. While the Bernstein report didn’t note it, Martin Marietta could actually play into three trump themes: building a great wall, engaging in fiscal stimulus through infrastructure spending, and helping to make the US military great again. Not only does it play into Trump themes, but its stock price pattern has followed success with Trump.

Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton: Presidential POLL

Martin Marietta perhaps checks most of the boxes for a Trump proxy – and it is currently flying high.

[dannathan]

Wednesday’s Notable Options Activity

Wednesday’s volatile session ended near flat, and the CBOE composite put/call ratio ended near even, at 0.95 on the session.  The most active options names were not your usual suspects, and traders mostly focused on upside calls.

1.  KO – The weekly 41.5 calls traded over 25k at an average price of 0.23 on the session, mostly buyer initiated (initial purchase was 13k for 0.19 when KO was trading 41.44).  It’s bizarre to see such a short-dated option trade in a normally quiet stock.  KO has traded between $41 and $42 for much of the past month.  The stock has flirted with its July 1998 all-time high of $44.47 in the past 18 months, but has been rejected each time.

2.  APC – Buyer of 10k x 20k x 10k of the Jan15 120/140/160 call butterfly for $2.30 in the morning.  That trade breaks even at $122.30, which is around 15% higher than the stock’s current level.  The all-time high of $113.51 was set in late August.  The call butterfly buyer chose an optimal midpoint for the fly of $140, which is up more than 30% with only about 4 months to expiration.

3.  FEYE – Buyer of around 10k of the weekly 36 calls for 0.60 in the afternoon.  That line traded over 18k by the close at an average price of 0.72.  No events are scheduled in FEYE over the next 2 days, but the buyer put up around $600,000 in premium for a 2-day option.

4.  CX – Cemex is a Mexican cement company with rarely traded options in the U.S.  Yesterday, there was a buyer of 33,500 of the Jan16 12 / 10 put spread paying 0.45 to open.  CX has not traded below $12 since March, but there is a year and 4 months until Jan16 expiration.

5.  BWP – Trader sold 28k of the Sept 17.5 calls at 1.05 to close, and bought 28k of the Mar 19 calls for 1.75 to open, rolling a long call position out and up.  BWP’s high since its February gap down on its distribution cut is $20.51 from late August.

6.  CNX – Three way bullish structure:  trader sold around 13k of the Jan15 34 puts at 0.66 to buy around 13k of the Jan15 43/47 call spread for 0.63, essentially putting on the trade for even money.  CNX has outperformed the broader coal sector in 2014, and is actually up 2% year-to-date.  The stock’s high of the year is $48.30, while it last traded below $34 in November.

This post by Enis Taner (@enistaner) originally appeared on RiskReversal.com