#$elli

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Charles River Laboratories, Ellie Mae, Fiserv, Oshkosh and Shopify

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Charles River Laboratories, Ticker: $CRL

Charles River Laboratories, $CRL, broke above its 20 day SMA in December, as it started to move higher. It took a couple of steps up and then had a gap up in February to a plateau it has held ever since. Last week it created a tight range against that support and made contact again with its 50 day SMA. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone while the MACD is about to break into negative territory. The question is whether it will bounce here or continue lower. Let it tell you and then tag along.....

Ellie Mae, Ticker: $ELLI

Ellie Mae, $ELLI, got crushed following the election, dropping over 20% in just 3 days. It settled in a channel, consolidating, for 3 months after that before starting higher. The first leg up recovered 61.8% of the move and then it pulled back. A second leg took it to the current level where it has held in a tight consolidation. The RSI is in the bullish zone and the MACD is positive, but looking to cross down. Look for a break of the consolidation to follow along.....

Fiserv, Ticker: $FISV

Fiserv, $FISV, gapped lower in October following earnings and has been trending higher since. The last leg topped in March and after a quick pullback, bounced to settle into the current consolidation. The RSI is pushing lower through the mid line, but not out of the bullish zone yet, while the MACD may be avoiding a positive cross and reversing lower. Mixed signals about the future. Look for price to break the range and show you which way to follow.....

Oshkosh, Ticker: $OSK

Oshkosh, $OSK, moved higher out of consolidation following the election. It made a higher in early December and has been consolidating in a tightening range ever since. Last week ended with a move toward the bottom of the range. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone for now but falling toward the edge, and the MACD is flat at zero but about to cross down. Look for a break of the range to participate.....

Shopify, Ticker: $SHOP

Shopify, $SHOP, started higher out of consolidation in January. It has had a couple of minor pullbacks since but trended higher. Last week ended with it moving up off of consolidation. The RSI is bullish and rising while the MACD is leveling after a pullback. Look for continuation to participate higher.....

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Thursday which with Easter now behind and April options Expiration ahead, sees equity markets looking a bit weaker short term as they give up some ground.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue in its uptrend while Crude Oil also moves higher. The US Dollar Index has moved into broad consolidation while US Treasuries are biased higher short term and may be reversing. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue to drift higher as Emerging Markets consolidate their recent move up.

Volatility looks to remain low, but higher than it has been and with a short term bias to continue up. This alone should not be enough to put a damper on equities but could contribute. The equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ, all look ready to continue to give ground in the short run. In the intermediate view they are all stronger with the QQQ strongest and IWM next and the SPY the least positive. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Abbott Labs, Edwards Lifesciences, First Energy, Ellie Mae and Molson Coors

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers

Abbott Laboratories, Ticker: $ABT

Abbott Laboratories, $ABT, started a move lower to begin 2016 and continued for a month. It found a bottom at the end of January, down over 20%. Since then started higher, closing a gap from January and then continuing up. The RSI is in the bullish zone and the MACD rising, supporting more upside.

Ellie Mae, Ticker: $ELLI

Ellie Mae, $ELLI, had a slow grind lower from an August high to a consolidation zone from November to January. A failed push higher saw it fall back to that zone before a quick move higher to the current consolidation. The RSI is in the bullish zone and the MACD resetting lower. Look for a move up out of consolidation to participate.

Edwards Lifesciences, Ticker: $EW

Edwards Lifesciences, $EW, ran higher in a series of advances and pullbacks over 2015. In February it started higher again reaching 90 before the current retracement. Friday saw a strong move higher in the falling channel to the top. The RSI is moving back higher after tagging the mid line and the MACD is turning up. Look for a break of the channel to participate in the upside.

FirstEnergy, Ticker: $FE

FirstEnergy, $FE, pulled back for almost all of 2015, finding its low in mid November. Since then it has reversed higher through a broad consolidation in December and January then a bit tighter over February, and even tighter now. Momentum is strong with the RSI in the bullish zone and the MACD flat and trying to avoid a cross down. Look for a move over resistance to participate to the upside.

Molson Coors Brewing, Ticker: $TAP

Molson Coors Brewing, $TAP, moved higher from the August low to a high in November. It stalled there and consolidated until starting to fall at the beginning of 2016. It pulled back and recovered before making a lower low, touching the 200 day SMA February 11th. Since then it has moved higher and is back at resistance. The RSI is in the bullish zone and the MACD is rising. Look for a break of resistance to the upside to participate.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which heading into the end of the first Quarter sees the run up in equities may have exhausted, at least in the short term.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to pullback in its uptrend while Crude Oil does the same, but with a possible bounce. The US Dollar Index continues higher in the consolidation range while US Treasuries may be breaking their downtrend to the upside. The Shanghai Composite looks better to the upside in the downtrend while Emerging Markets are biased to the downside in their uptrend.

Volatility looks to remain low keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts suggest the recent uptrend may be exhausting though with the SPY lading to the downside followed by the QQQ and the IWM consolidating. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

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[ophirgottlieb]

This Wonderful Tech Stock is Crushing It

Fundamentals

PREFACE Technology does not have to be complicated. In fact, it is usually at its best and most effective when applied to create new solutions to ubiquitous, long standing problems. Enter Ellie Mae (ELLI), the company transforming the not so sexy world of mortgage originations. WINNER Ellie Mae (ELLI) was one of the very few companies to enjoy the month of January, as it shares rose 16% while the market overall was crushed. The stock is up 63% in the last year and nearly 200% in the last two-years. Further, ELLI is really just scratching the surface of its market. Though they sport 135,000 active users, this represents less than 25% of their potential lender customers, and there are lots of big fish left out there as well. Market penetration of the top 25 potential customers is just 28%.

This graphic is from their investor presentation and shows current revenue as just 5% of the total available market. In other words, there is plenty of room for this company to run. The upside here is enormous. We break news every day. Discover the Undiscovered. Get Our (Free) News Alerts Once a Day. STORY ELLI is "a leading provider of innovative on-demand software solutions and services for the residential mortgage industry. Ellie Mae's all-in-one Encompass® mortgage management solution provides one system of record that allows banks, credit unions and mortgage lenders to originate and fund mortgages and improve compliance, loan quality and efficiency." The solution they offer the mortgage industry is quite compelling, with their SAAS model they not only handle the burden of compliance for clients, but they save them money as well, big money, almost $600 per loan, or nearly 9% of the average origination expense.

We publish research that uncovers new opportunities everyday. Try CML Pro. No credit Card. No Payment Info. Just the Power. STRENGTH First, let's look at ELLI vs its Application Software peers when it comes both Sales growth and growth in Cash from Operations. ELLI is a standout performer growing faster than bigger, sexier names like Splunk (SPLK), Mobileye (MBLY), Workday (WDAY) and Salesforce.com (CRM).

Source: CML Pro

ELLI is simply a standout. Next, let's look at the firm's revenue (TTM) throughout time:

Source: CML Pro

That green bar represents an all-time high with revenue up 62% year-over-year. Now we can turn to cash from operations (bars) and net income (orange line):

Source: CML Pro

Cash from operations is up an astounding 145% year-over-year, while net income is up 69% year-over-year. WHY THIS MATTERS If any of the information we just covered feels like a surprise, in many ways it is. ELLI is little known to the public but nearly all of the stock is owned by institutions. The firm's revenue, cash from operations and net income are all at all-time highs with growth numbers the envy of any technology company. This is what CML Pro does: We find themes that are booming and then identify the gems within those segments. This is just one of the fantastic reports CML Pro members get along with all the charting tools, top picks for 2016, research dossiers and alerts. For a (very) limited time we are offering CML Pro at a 90% discount for $10/mo. with a lifetime guaranteed rate. Join Us: Get the most advanced premium research delivered to your inbox along with access to visual tools and data that until now has only been made available to the top 1%. Thanks for reading, friends.

[alphaattribution]

ELLI drove Whale Rock Capital in June. GRUB drags.

Whale Rock Capital Management returns an estimated -0.48% for June 2015 - the fully hedged version returns 3.17%

Alex Sacerdote's Whale Rock Capital Management generated a -0.48% return on their publicly disclosed long portfolio for the month ending June 2015, underperforming the S&P500 by 49 basis points (bp). On a hedged basis, the portfolio would have returned 3.17% StockAlpha over the same period. Whale Rock's StockAlpha reflects the return of the net return if each security in their portfolio was hedged with a sector ETF, such that the resulting portfolio was market, beta and sector neutral. StockAlpha in the Tech sector contributed the most to StockAlpha during the month.

Positive Contributors to Whale Rock's Returns

Whale Rock’s position in Ellie Mae Inc. (ELLI) contributed the most to the performance of the manager’s long-portfolio during the month. Over the month of July 2015, Whale Rock's 5.9% position in Ellie Mae Inc. (ELLI) increased in value by 11.9%, contributing 0.7% (5.9%*11.9%=0.7%)to the long portfolios overall return. Looking at Whale Rock's portfolio through a fully hedged StockAlpha lens, the holding of Ellie Mae Inc. (ELLI) also provided the largest contribution to fully hedged returns. Ellie Mae Inc. (ELLI) returned 11.9% during the month compared to the Tech sector, which returned -4.3%. As a result, after taking into account Ellie Mae Inc. (ELLI)'s beta relative to its sector, the position contributed 1% of StockAlpha to the Whale Rock’s monthly performance.

Negative Contributors to Whale Rock's Returns

Much of the drag on Whale Rock’s long-portfolio during the month can be attributed to the holding of GRUBHUB INC (GRUB). Over the month of June 2015, the manager's 4.5% position in GRUBHUB INC (GRUB) returned -13.8%, contributing -0.62% (4.5%*-13.8%=-0.62%)to the long portfolios overall return. Looking at Whale Rock's portfolio through a fully hedged StockAlpha lens, the holding of GRUBHUB INC (GRUB) also provided the most negative contribution to fully hedged returns. GRUBHUB INC (GRUB) returned -13.8% during the month compared to the Tech sector, which returned -4.3%. As a result, the position contributed -0.5% of StockAlpha to the manager’s monthly performance.

Overlap with other hedge funds

Among Whale’s top 10 largest positions, Apple Inc (AAPL) is the name that is owned by most other hedge funds. 36.3% of hedge funds within Symmetric's universe had a position in Apple Inc (AAPL) as of March 31, 2015, making it a consensus name relative to other stocks. Whale initiated its position in Apple Inc (AAPL) 1 year ago. Other hedge funds that have significant ownership stakes in Apple Inc (AAPL) include Icahn Associates, Valiant Capital, and Coatue. On the other hand, ZENDESK INC (ZEN) is the name that is owned by least other hedge funds. Some 3.8% of hedge funds within Symmetric's universe had a position in ZENDESK INC (ZEN) as of March 31, 2015, making it a contrarian name relative to other stocks, even though it is the most consensus within the manager's top positions. Whale Rock initiated its position in ZENDESK INC (ZEN) 0.75 years ago. Overall, Whale Rock's book is neither consensus or contrarian, with the average position held in the portfolio held by 12.8% of hedge funds. Use Symmetric to surface managers with unique sources of alpha and flag those that may be in trouble.

[staticpulsewritings]

Investment Diary - Buy ELLI

I've been watching Ellie Mae for a while now. Time to jump in head first. Took out a decent position (still under 1% of my capital) to see if I'm right. In at $57.24/share.