#$bmw

[likefolio]

Is Tesla in Real Trouble?

Holes have started to appear in Tesla’s sunny outlook. 

A new report from LikeFolio, which tracks social media mentions of brands and products, shows a drop in consumer happiness levels for the company, as well as some bright spots in the social data.

Consumer Reports said Tesla Model 3 was fun, but had flaws and some features were disappointing. Real trouble arose in late March when a Bloomberg Model 3 tracker indicated Tesla would not hit the pace goal for Q1: 2,500 Model 3 units/week. 

Musk attempted to control the narrative with an April Fools Bankruptcy joke. In the meantime, production increased to 2,000 units per week (but still fell short of 2,500 unit per week goal set to be reached by end of Q1). This was enough to bump the stock back up a little. But on April 3, TSLA missed Q1 production pace goals. 

Are Consumers Happy With Tesla Vehicles?

Yes, but….

Happiness has begun to drop, and recently hit new lows, as the company has pushed back delivery dates and delivered a product that is not quite living up to the expectations of the consumer.  This has competitors like GM, Ford and Mercedes licking their chops...and catching up on technology.

In fact, we’ve even seen BMW overtake Tesla in terms of consumer happiness… not a great signal…

Tesla’s outlook from here

While the consumer sentiment numbers are quite concerning, the report goes on to lay out reasons for investors to have faith in Elon Musk, and details the impact of his success at getting a Tesla to actually orbit the Earth... The full report can be downloaded here.

[estimize]

Is it Too Late for HP?

Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) Information Technology - Computers & Peripherals | Reports May 25, After Market Closes

Key Takeaways

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share of 39 cents on $11.87 billion in revenue, right in line with Wall Street on the bottom and $40 million higher on the top

Due to ongoing weakness in the broader PC market, HP will likely see earnings miss expectations

HP recently announced its emergence in the 3D printing market and plans on entering other buzzworthy tech markets

What are you expecting for HPQ? Get your estimate in here!

Hewlett Packard is scheduled to report fiscal second quarter earnings this Tuesday, after the market closes. Mixed results from Intel and other PC centric companies this season could indicate bad news for HP. The tech company is coming off a FQ1 2016 that missed EPS expectations, after 7 quarters of beating or meeting. The real story however, is the massive downturn in comparisons the company has experienced. The past 2 quarters featured over 50% declines on both the top and bottom line with upcoming earnings shaping up to be more of the same.

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share of 39 cents on $11.87 billion in revenue, right in line with Wall Street on the bottom and $40 million higher on the top. Since HP’s last report, per share estimates have come down 32% to reflect a 55% decline from a year earlier. Revenue, on the other hand, is forecasted to fall 53% over that time frame. Given its recent history, it's not surprising that shares are down nearly 25% in the past 12 months. Fortunately, shareholders will be able to reconcile some of their losses as the stock is typically a positive gainer during earnings seasonHewlett Packard, is best known as a manufacturer of laptops, desktops, printers and electronic accessories. Its PC centric portfolio has suffered lately as personal computers continue to see decreasing demand and sales. The ongoing weakness in the PC market was reverberate throughout Q1 when many other PC focused companies reporting below expectations. This should remain an issue moving forward with currency headwinds and macroeconomic volatility also causing problems.

HP is expanding into new industries in an attempt to drive growth and offset the losses after spinning out HP enterprise. HP recently announced it will introduced two 3D printers in collaboration with businesses such as BMW and Nike. The price of one printer is estimated at above $100k, putting it well out of reach for most consumers and small businesses. Meanwhile, HP is looking at opportunities to enter more buzzworthy tech areas such as virtual reality and artificial intelligence. Based on how earnings have come in over the last two years, coupled with ongoing weakness in the PC market, it’s a safe bet to steer clear from HPQ this quarter. Do you think HPQ can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

Photo Credit: włodi

[likefolio]

Car Wars:  Consumers are spreading the love

In the automotive world, competition is stiff.  Over the last decade or so, car quality seems to have leveled out.  A $30k model of one brand is likely very similar to a $30k model of another.  

Consumer choices are therefore made on brand connection and a handful of unique features.

This is also proven-out in the social data for these companies, where we look for the sentiment behind consumer tweets about the brands and models that the company makes.  

Here’s a look from the LikeFolio app on how people feel about General Motors brands:

Not bad... 89% positive and pretty consistently in the high 80′s.

That’s impressive...until you look at other car makers:

In addition, Toyota and Honda are putting up almost identical numbers.

In fact, the most positive of the bunch is Ford Motors, led by its very popular and well-loved F-150 model trucks.

So what’s this mean?

It tells us that right now, social sentiment will NOT be a significant signal among automotive stocks. Of course, if any of these brands start to take a major turn more negative in terms of sentiment, that would signal a major departure from the norm and could be an opportunity to trade the stock for a down move 4-6 months out.

Barring that kind of big sentiment move, right now we should be focusing on purchase intent volume.  People are all very happy with their choices with all brands-- but which ones are they actually showing intent to purchase?

Understanding how to use data is just as important as the data itself.  In the case of automotive companies, volume is the bigger tell and sentiment is a given.  In other industries, it’s just the opposite.

Know where signal lies and you’ll be driving home with profits-- regardless of the logo on the steering wheel.

– LikeFolio provides research on companies based on purchase intent and sentiment data gathered from consumers on social media.