Discover Top Posts Tagged with #$hain

The danger of the overconfident trader

Yesterday I wrote about a trader struggling with added size and risk. In seeking a solution for this trader one possible area of focus was overconfidence. How does it happen? Why is it dangerous? What can we do to combat overconfidence?

You trade well. You are seeing screens well and the market is trading in a way that allows your strengths to produce outsized PnL. Your firm gives you a bump in size and risk. Everyone around you sees you slaying the market and comes over with the fist bumps and giggles. On a prop desk, you get followed around more by traders engaging you in your trading. You are the BMOD (Big Man on the Desk). You may start to believe you have “figured” this whole trading game out.

We all have systems that we run. I call it our PlayBook. You might call it something else. The truth is some markets just set up very well for us. And it is very possible that our hot streak as trader is because of market conditions. This can often be the case even for the best of traders. And market conditions change.

Take for instance the past few months, where there has been great opportunity in the Low Float space. That opportunity can come and go. Yet a good run by a Low Float trader, then given a size and risk bump, with a turning of good market conditions for Low Float trading and a trader overconfident can be dangerous. That trader can start to underperform and drawdown.

Most recently, the past week was optimal for Market Play traders. Futures traders in particular had a market to crush and outperform. Some of these traders are spending the weekend feeling like the BMOD. Give them added size and risk, add overconfidence because of most recent past results in optimal market conditions, then change those market conditions and danger can visit. Danger in the form of drawdowns and for the lesser experienced traders blow ups.

When we are trading well and our PnL hits levels higher than expected it is time to be cautious. You will want to take your temperature more often on potential overconfidence and double down on efforts to let your trades come to you. Do not sabotage those optimal market conditions and good runs, just check in more often and check to see if you are letting setups come to you that offer good risk/reward in the present environment,

Further, I love the 90/10 rule for traders. 90 percent of your effort is spent each day focusing on your existing trades with edge. 10 percent is spent on experimenting with new setups, with small risk. Record your results on these new setups and size up those working for you. A consistent effort to expand your trading PlayBook allows you to trade with edge in more market environments. This minimizes forcing trades when market conditions change. For example, if you have Market Play edge, you might have been less likely to force Low Float trades this past week, thus minimizes a negative effect of overconfidence.

As the old saying goes, we are not as good as we think when crushing markets and we are not as bad as we think in periods of drawdown. The key is to be actively on the lookout of present market conditions and our trader mental state, so we keep more of our gains during the good runs and give back less when market conditions change.

Win rate is overrated says this Futures trader

Nothing wrong with skipping a trade says this Options trader

*no relevant positions

Mike Bellafiore is the author of One Good Trade and The PlayBook. Bella is the Co-founder of SMB Capital and SMB Training. He welcomes feedback and your trading questions at [email protected].

#$GM #$TMUS #$AMKR #$HIBB #$HAIN #$NVDA #$SINO

Combining The Daily With The Weekly

Today we have a decent amount of stocks on the watchlist, I left out many names, and I will be paying a lot more attention to these names today; BTE, CTXS, SHOP. Those 3-names have decent consolidations both on the daily and weekly timeframe. Here are the rest of the names;

We have an interest in these names if and only if they go through yesterday's high. That one single criterion on most days eliminates a bulk of the names. These ideas are what we consider swing trades that can last anywhere from 1-10 days. Most stocks if not all go through a momentum burst that lasts 1-10 days and that is what we look to take advantage of.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at [email protected] or 646-480-7463.

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Work With Me

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are working to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty, it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills. If this is something you can relate to, then this blog might be for you.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

#$gspc #$spy #$shop #$hain

$HAIN 49 Calls BUYING Activity expiring on 17th Jun, Vol 457 @ IS 16/06

$HAIN 50 Calls BUYING Activity expiring on 15th Jul, Vol 449

#$hain #markets #stocks #options #financial #charts #stockcharts

Reaching for the Stars with Hain Celestial

Hain Celestial ($HAIN) is a natural, specialty and snack food company. Not anything to do with rock ships or outer space. But their stock price may be ready to reach for the stars. After making a high in August 2015, the stock started lower with the market. But unlike many stocks it did not stop and rebound into the end of the year. It just kept falling through the middle of January.

It finally found some support and consolidated over 33, 54% lower. That was more like crashing to Earth. But since February 11th it has started to round higher. It made a higher high on the 17th and then a higher low the 24th. Now it is making another higher high. The momentum indicators are rising, with the RSI moving into the bullish zone and the MACD above zero.

The stock moved over its 50 day SMA for the first time since August last week and is now closing in on the 100 day SMA. Notice as well that the Bollinger Bands® are opening to the upside. Using 36.50 as a stop loss this stock might be a great way to reach for the stars if it can get over 40. A minor 38.2% retracement would yield a 18.7% return and if it gets really strong that 61.8% retracement would yield over 40%.

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#$HAIN

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Agrium, BioMarin, Hain Celestial, Landstar & Nasdaq OMX

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers.

Agrium, Ticker: $AGU

Agrium, $AGU, has moved sideways in a consolidation over 100 since pulling back from the high to start March. It ended last week with a touch of the 200 day SMA, the first time since December. Oh and that was the start of the last leg higher. The RSI continues to hold mildly bullish while the MACD is crossing down, a bearish signal. Look to follow the move away from the support level, whichever way it goes.

BioMarin Pharmaceuticals, Ticker: $BMRN

BioMarin Pharmaceuticals, $BMRN, broke above an ascending triangle in June. It retested the break out level and then rose just shy of the start on the pattern. A slight pullback to the 20 day SMA and now there is a tight consolidation range building. The RSI is turned down but remains bullish while the MACD has crossed down, rather un-bullish. A move to new highs or below the 20 day SMA is a trading opportunity.

Hain Celestial, Ticker: $HAIN

Hain Celestial, $HAIN, has been steadily rising since September 2014. The latest price action sees it consolidating under resistance at 69 with tightening Bollinger Bands® after a leg higher from the rising trend support. The RSI is rolling over though it remains in the bullish zone, while the MACD is crossed down and falling. Watch for a break of the 20 day SMA or a move over resistance.

Landstar System, Ticker: $LSTR

Landstar System, $LSTR, was on the radar two weeks ago as it consolidated at resistance. Friday broke that resistance to the upside but then pulled back from the high print intraday as it met the February high. Despite the long upper shadow, the Bollinger Bands are opening to the upside while the RSI is bullish and the MACD crossed up and rises. All are bullish signals, and you now have a natural stop area.

Nasdaq OMX, Ticker: $NDAQ

Nasdaq OMX, $NDAQ, has been trending higher since October, but with some strong pullbacks along the way. Regardless, the series of higher highs and higher lows continues. The price action to close last week saw a test of the May high and move above resistance before pulling back. The Bollinger Bands are opening higher and the RSI is in the bullish zone with a rising MACD. All support more upside price action.

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, heading into the last week of July sees the equity markets a bit weaker but mixed with the tech names the strongest.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue lower along with Crude Oil. The US Dollar Index may move sideways or continue higher while US Treasuries are biased to the upside. The Shanghai Composite is looking stronger and has almost dispelled all possibility of a Dead Cat Bounce while and Emerging Markets are confirming the resumption of the move lower.

Volatility looks to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts are a bit mixed, with all better on the longer timeframe. The QQQ is the leader on the weekly timeframe with the IWM next and then the SPY. On the shorter timeframe the QQQ's are also looking the strongest with the SPY and IWM worse, but all biased lower short term. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

More at Dragonfly Capital

#$AGU #$BMRN #$HAIN #$NDAQ #$LSTR #$SPY

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Cigna, Hain Celestial, Old Dominion Freight Line, PerkinElmer & Weyerhaeuser

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers.

Cigna, Ticker: $CI

Cigna, $CI, rose out of a base between 88 and 94 up to another base centered around 102 before starting a move higher in January. The current move is now consolidating under resistance. As it does, the RSI has worked off an overbought condition while remaining bullish and the MACD is level after a pullback.

Hain Celestial, Ticker: $HAIN

Hain Celestial, $HAIN, has trended higher, with a few pullbacks along the way, since August. Now it is consolidating under resistance with the Bollinger Bands® tightening. This is often a precursor to a move in price. The RSI has turned back higher and is bullish while the MACD is level after a pullback. Watch for a break out higher.

Old Dominion Freight Line, Ticker: $ODFL

Old Dominion Freight Line, $ODFL, rose from an April 2014 low with only a pullback along with the market in October. But the last 4 months has seen falling trend resistance, like the neckline of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. The higher low last week suggests it may be ready to break higher. And the bullish and rising RSI supports this. The MACD which is level after a pullback, turning higher would confirm support too.

PerkinElmer, Ticker: $PKI

PerkinElmer, $PKI, has been a bit of a messy chart but the action sine January has some short term clarity. Rising to resistance and then pulling back a couple of times to higher support each time. It pushed through that resistance Friday on strong relative volume. The RSI is rising and in the bullish zone while the MACD is about to cross up. These support a new leg higher.

Weyerhaeuser, Ticker: $WY

Weyerhaeuser, $WY, had been in a rising channel or wedge since April 2014 until falling out lower to bring in March like a lion. Now consolidating over support, it has moved back into the Bollinger Bands. The RSI is bearish and holding along the oversold line with the MACD falling. Look for a break lower.

If you like what you see sign up here for how to trade these, more ideas and deeper analysis.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, Heading into the March Options Expiration week the equity markets are a bit mixed, mostly better looking to the downside.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue lower along with Crude Oil next week. The US Dollar Index may consolidate in the uptrend but has a clear bias higher while US Treasuries are biased lower. The Shanghai Composite is trying to break consolidation to resume the uptrend while Emerging Markets are biased to the downside still.

Volatility looks to remain subdued but above the low range of the early 2014 keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ, but with the wind easing at their backs. Their charts all are consolidating in the short run with the bias to the upside for the IWM while to the downside for the SPY and QQQ. The long term uptrend remains intact for each though. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

More at Dragonfly Capital

#$HAIN #$CI #$PKI #$WY #$odfl #$SPY

Here's What Analysts Expect From Hain Celestial on Tuesday

The Hain Celestial Group Inc. (HAIN) is set to report FQ2 2014 earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, February 4th. Hain Celestial is a healthy and organic foods company which also sells personal care products. Some of their more well known products include Terra Chips, Celestial Seasonings tea, and Soy Dream soy milk. Over the past year the company’s stock has done well and the bar for future performance has been set high by Wall Street. Here’s how buy side analysts expect HAIN to report this quarter.

The information below is derived from data submitted to the Estimize.com platform by a set of Buy Side and Independent analyst contributors.

(Click Here to see All Estimates for HAIN)

The current Wall Street consensus expectation is for HAIN to report 88c EPS and $544.48M revenue while the current Estimize.com consensus from 10 Buy Side and Independent contributing analysts is 86c EPS and $537.33M revenue. This quarter the buy-side as represented by the Estimize.com community is expecting HAIN to miss the Street’s expectations on both profit and revenue.

Over the previous 6 quarters the consesus from Estimize.com has been more accurate than Wall Street in forecasting Hain’s profit and revenue 3 times each. By tapping into a wider range of contributors including hedge-fund analysts, asset managers, independent research shops, students, and non professional investors Estimize has created a data set that is up to 69.5% more accurate than Wall Street, but more importantly it does a better job of representing the market’s actual expectations. It has been confirmed by an independent academic study from Rice University that stock prices tend to react with a more strongly associated degree to the expectation benchmark from Estimize than from the Wall Street consensus.

The magnitude of the difference between the Wall Street and Estimize consensus numbers often identifies opportunities to take advantage of expectations that may not have been priced into the market. In this case we are seeing an average differential compared to recent quarters.

The distribution of estimates published by analysts on the Estimize.com platform range from 80c to 91c EPS and $527.00M to $509.99M in revenues. This quarter we’re seeing a larger distribution of estimates on profit compared to previous quarters.

The size of the distribution of estimates relative to previous quarters often signals whether or not the market is confident that it has priced in the expected earnings already. A wider distribution of estimates signaling less agreement in the market, which could mean greater volatility post earnings.

Throughout the quarter the EPS consensus from Wall Street increased from 84c to 88c while the Estimize consensus increased from 84c to 86c. Wall Street raised its revenue consensus from $542.68M to $544.48M while the consensus from the Estimize community fell from $539.41M to $537.33M. Timeliness is correlated with accuracy and at the end of the quarter we saw the Estimize community bring its numbers up.

The analyst with the highest estimate confidence rating this quarter is j_holliman who projects 85c EPS and $537.00M in revenue. In the Winter 2014 season j_holliman rated as the 22nd best analyst and is ranked 7th overall among over 3,700 contributing analysts. Estimate confidence ratings are calculated through algorithms developed by deep quantitative research which looks at correlations between analyst track records and tendencies as they relate to future accuracy. In this case j_holliman agrees with the Estimize community that HAIN will miss Wall Street expectations on Tuesday.

The expectations from Wall Street are high for this quarter, and the Estimize.com community is not expecting the Hain Celestial Group to meet them. Although the expectations are high for HAIN we could see the stock price come down if the company fails to meet the buy-side’s expectations.

Get access to estimates for HAIN published by your Buy Side and Independent analyst peers and follow the rest of earnings season by heading over to Estimize.com. Register for free to create your own estimates and see how you stack up to Wall Street.

#$HAIN