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Stocks On Watch For May 13, 2015 - VGGL, PTBI, ADXS, GEVO, OREX

The way to make money is to make it. The way to make BIG money is to be right at exactly the right time. ~ Jesse Livermore

With graduation behind me I can now focus on trading full time, although I plan to reserve my new onslaught when I am situated in my 3,000 sq. foot man cave/bungalow located in Medellin, Colombia next month (more on that in another post). In the meantime I plan to try out some new methods, and for that purpose I created 2 new trading accounts (Interactive Brokers and Suretrader). This month I will mostly be using IB to test out some options strategies, nothing crazy, while I prep for my 3 month departure 4 weeks from today, which is when I plan to use Suretrader for a 30 day “project” in which all results will be posted on profit.ly at its conclusion.

Now for what you really came for, my watchlist going into tomorrow

Stocks on Watch for 5-12-2015:

Considering this had about 5 float rotations on the previous trading day I wouldn’t get too short biased. Low float stocks like this can always sneak up on you, so I would exercise caution both long and short.

Another small float with massive volume on previous days, would look for a morning wash to go long into for a quick scalp, or a big front side move out of the gate for a short, anything over/under $10 could be a good r/r

Some good downside last few trading sessions, retracement towards $6 looks probable at these levels. Will keep on watch for a high probability setup.

Might look into getting some covered calls, or just go naked

Holding pretty well after its secondary offering, might try some puts, but not now, will keep on watch.

InvestorsLive Promo Codes

Profit.ly Promo Codes

#$ADXS #$GEVO #$OREX #$PTBI #$VGGL

Bio-Twitter Sentiment Favors European Orexigen Obesity Pill Approval

An important near-term event for Orexigen Therapeutics occurs on Dec. 19 when the European Medicine Agency announces the approval recommendations from the monthly meeting of the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP).

Orexigen's Mysimba (the European brand name for the weight-loss pill Contrave) is on the December CHMP agenda. If CHMP recommends Mysimba's approval, Orexigen will have a significant advantage over weight-loss pill competitors Arena Pharmaceuticals and Vivus, both of which have been rejected by European regulators.

Tuesday, I polled biotech investors on Twitter to gauge sentiment for the upcoming Mysimba European approval decision. The results are posted in the chart above:

72% of respondents believe Orexigen will secure European approval for its weight-loss pill. 28% believe Mysimba will be rejected in Europe. (I voted in the approval camp.)

Stay tuned for the actual decision.

#$OREX #$ARNA #$VVUS #biotech investing

Obesity Pill Upstart Orexigen Therapeutics Gaining on Rivals

Here comes Orexigen Therapeutics, winning big-time market share from obesity pill rivals Vivus and Arena Pharmaceuticals.

The chart and graph above were tweeted out this morning by professional money manager @zbiotech, who tracks new prescriptions of obesity pills using data generated by Symphony Health.

For the week ended Dec. 5 (the last week of data available), Orexigen's Contrave captured 28% of new prescriptions. Contrave's been commercially available for eight weeks and already had market share for new prescriptions equal to Vivus' Qsymia.

In that same time span, NRx market share for Arena Pharma's Belviq has dropped from 60% to 44%.

Why is Orexigen's Contrave launch outperforming its obesity pill rivals? Give substantial credit to Orexigen's marketing partner, the Japanese drug maker Takeda:

Selling weight-loss pills to fat Americans is clearly more difficult than Vivus and Arena envisioned. Orexigen will face the same challenges, but of the three companies, it has the best marketing partner in Takeda because of its metabolic drug expertise. Takeda's diabetes drug Actos is a blockbuster, so expect the company to apply that know-how to selling Contrave. If approved, Takeda is going to launch Contrave with 900 sales reps, which is way more than Vivus and Eisai (Arena's marketing partner) deploy. Orexigen also has the advantage of having the only obesity drug with clinical trial data ruling out an increased risk of heart-related side effects. Interim, top-line results from the Contrave "LIGHT" cardiovascular safety study were announced last fall. Data from the heart-safety study are unlikely to be included in the Contrave FDA label just yet in order to allow the study to continue to the end. Still, Takeda sales reps might just find a way to make sure doctors know that the interim analysis of the LIGHT study was positive.

Investors are taking notice.